"The Win Formula" -- Lights, Camera, Action!

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Stallion

Tree Young
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Posting now.

Also Lemmiwinks' posting worries me a little, it seems he is onto us. Perhaps X-Act or someone could go into a little more depth to allay his worries, because at the moment he seems like a bit of a threat to the whole joke.
 

august

you’re a voice that never sings
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OGC Leader
I agree with this formula 100%, I've been wanting a formula to be implemented like this for a while. Now i'm not going to say I never get hax, but there are times where I can clinch the game and hax goes off its own way and my plan is baffled, an example of this being my Scarf Magnezone being flinched to death by Choice Scarf Jirachi, while only mustering 1 hit against the aforementioned Choice Scarf Jirachi.

I also believe the formula needs a little bit of tweaking, but i am no math genius, so I will leave that to X Act and Caelum. I will edit my post on another night this week when i do not have a head cold and go a little more in depth on my point of view.

Any points i need to improve on before i post?
 

Jimbo

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I'd like to post soon too,

I too support this formula. This formula could definitely curtail blowups of the more hot-headed players who explode when they get haxxed and lose when they should've rightfully won.

A lot of people who've played me (and got haxxed by me) know that I'm not opposed to leaving the room when I'm about to win through hax. I'm glad I won't have to do this anymore because the formula will decide if I got too much hax for me!
Anything wrong with this before I post it? I know I'm supposed to be a "drive by" person, I hope this post wasn't too substantiated ;)
 

DougJustDoug

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Obi -- I think that's a good Mad Scientist position. Post it ASAP.

august and Jimbo -- I think a few posts of support are in order today. Feel free to jump in. We'll be kicking off Act 2 soon, so your timing is about right.
 

X-Act

np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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Just so you know, I've received three PMs over the weekend about the thread, from people who can't post in PR. This shows the amount of interest the thread is getting.
 

Lee

@ Thick Club
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Haha, I kinda feel guilty that Blame Game is putting so much time, effort and passion into this. ^_^
 

Aldaron

geriatric
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Blame Game and Lemmiewinks are getting mad respect from me for being so tactful and intelligent in the face of this utterly retarded proposition, though!
 

Ancien Régime

washed gay RSE player
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I love how easy this is.

Just condense every shitstorm I've thrown over hax into post form, hit Reply, and done. I have pages of material I can go back and forth with.
 
Honestly, I think that people are looking at this the wrong way.

This is simply a way to go about determining who played better. The best way to do that is, imo, to remove hax from the equation. I've seen some people say "but what about unnecessary crits" (paraphrasing). I'm pretty sure Doug has the ability to view 'unstrict' damage in his logs, thereby being able to differentiate between the necessary and unnecessary crits. There may be battles where the first 6 turns, all 6 of an opponent's pokemon are OHKOed due to critical hits. We can alter the formula to disregard these types of battles and simply name them 'ties' or 'stalemates' or whatever.

There is, obviously, some potential for hax in a battle. If Flamethrower burn once in ten uses, I wouldn't call that hax. If it burns four times in the same amount of uses, I would call that hax.

I really think if we tweak this formula to perfection, we can use it to not punish whoever gets more hax, but instead reward who played better.


?post?
 

DougJustDoug

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To everyone playing a hero -- just remember that we are intentionally making a totally preposterous proposition. Users like Blame Game and Chrisisme (yes, Tang -- even CIM) are RIGHT. Their arguments are, for the most part, the proper response to a proposal like this. I agree with Aldaron -- I'm quite impressed that those users have remained so composed through this so far.

We'll see how composed they remain over the coming days -- because when Act 2 kicks in, they'll have plenty more to get upset about.

I like your proposed post Darkie. It gives me a good lead-in on multiple levels. It introduces a few good new concepts to the hax formula -- namely the idea that the formula would NOT target single occurrences of bad luck, but rather strings of bad luck, aka "extreme hax".

I cued Caelum and Brain, but I guess they are busy with other stuff. In my posts this week, I'll gather any loose ends left for the formula. I may need some others to help put some good math detail behind it. I see Obi has thrown his hat in the ring, so I'm sure we'll manage it somehow.

So far, Act 1 has played out beautifully. Let's hope it continues!
 

Tangerine

Where the Lights Are
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I still don't think they're making the right arguments yet (as in i can still respond to them, throwing strawmans and whatnot. I know they're right, I'm sort of offended that you thought you had to point it out to me though ._.), but i'll be lighting some fireworks on tuesday. Maybe I could start a huge mess and I could get "demodded" etc as part of the prank to make it more realistic?
 

maddog

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Hows this

I'll go ahead and throw my two cents in.

I think the formula, if made correctly, could be very benefitial to the competitive nature of Pokemon. jrrrrrrrrrrrrr offered an analogy to poker, so I will go ahead and give my own analogy to this formula.

As a high school student, I've had to take the AP exams. In the history and english sections that I took last year, our teachers promised us that the College Board would "reward us for what we do well". An AP grader would notice for example that you organized your essay well, had a clear thesis statement that was well supported, and focus on that, instead of getting the incorrect date on that start of the war in Vietnam, or had some spelling errors.

I would be upset if this process didn't happen, and I wasn't rewarded for writing a good essay, instead of for example, focusing on all I did wrong. This in essence, is what the Win Formula focuses on. We all have had our games where we played well and controled the game, and ended up losing due to missing with Meteor Mash twice when the opponent got a CH and paralysis on you to stop your sweep. Instead of being punished for being unlucky, the formula would reward you for your good play and not focus on the bs haxs your opponent got to win the game. In one game, I have had 3 Waterfall flinches, 2 paralysises caused by Thunderbolt and 2 CHs against me. This formula would help against the most insane amount of haxs. LN and others have mentioned "I have no control whether Ice Beam freezes" but fail to realize that this small occurance would not cause them to lose. Since this formual only deals with greater occurances of haxs, rewards good play, I support it (although I'm sure it can be improved a little bit more). Since we can't take our all instances of luck out of the game, I believe that this is the best way to allow haxs to not have as big of an impact as it currently does.
 

DougJustDoug

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I still don't think they're making the right arguments yet (as in i can still respond to them, throwing strawmans and whatnot. I know they're right, I'm sort of offended that you thought you had to point it out to me though ._.), but i'll be lighting some fireworks on tuesday. Maybe I could start a huge mess and I could get "demodded" etc as part of the prank to make it more realistic?
I was just trolling you a little Tangerine, no offense intended. I think getting demodded may be a bit much, but we'll see how this works out over the next several days.

@maddog -- That post looks fine to me. Post it over the next day or two.
 

X-Act

np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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Say hello to jrrrrrrr posting in the thread as well...

It seems like this is going well. Good job everyone.
 

Jumpman16

np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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do you have any ideas that can help us at this point or is that just an observation
 

Tangerine

Where the Lights Are
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The villains REALLY need to start speaking up - so far ALL badgeholders have been heroes and none have been villains.

EDIT: Actually, we can have a few people change their minds - and then a few more skeptics posting later on. looks like chris is sort of catching on with this so doing this right away is probably a bad idea.
 

Lee

@ Thick Club
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I gave villainy a shot but it's really quite difficult because there's already so many people opposed to it that it's difficult to add anything without regurgitating old posts. :x
 
I posted though I think I was hasty in doing so since I should have posted here first with it.

Please don't shoot me....

Anyway the whole thing seems to be doing REALLY well.
 

DougJustDoug

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I'm trying to get my post together that will kick-off Act 2. However, before I finalize a few elements of the supposed "formula" - I need some game log data to make sure it holds up.

I need a few logs of EXTREME hax in battle.
I don't want a log that simply has an untimely crit or a long freeze -- I need some logs that demonstrate serious hax that allowed an inferior player to win. I want some logs that all good players would say, "Oh wow. You got fucked over badly."

With those logs, I will back-fit the formula to "work" with those logs. I won't worry about too many of the far-reaching implications of making the formula work. But, I will need a couple of logs to use as "evidence". If I have a few logs in my back pocket, then I can dole them out strategically. After presenting some technical babble about the formula itself, I will say something like,
"I have back-tested the formula against the past five months of battles on the OU ladder, and the hax formula has only overturned wins in roughly 2.4% of all close battles. Here's an example.
(( post log here ))​
Spot-checking has confirmed the formula is amazingly effective at identifying cases of extreme hax. So far, no false positives have been identified. I'm still a bit concerned about false negatives, but we'll be checking for those next. We'll post more later, but so far so good."
For those of you that battle regularly, I'm sure you encounter massive hax from time-to-time. Please post some hax logs ASAP. Sorry for the late notice, I meant to ask for these a while back.

As for the timeline, I think the pace is working OK. Since the whole prank got off to a faster start than I originally planned, I am pushing back other elements of the script, so we don't burn it out too early. After my post we'll see how everyone reacts, and then make a call as to when to "announce the date".
 

Lorak

*leekspin*
is an Artist Alumnus
For those of you that battle regularly, I'm sure you encounter massive hax from time-to-time. Please post some hax logs ASAP. Sorry for the late notice, I meant to ask for these a while back.
I can get you one in a few moments. Not sure if it's haxy enough, though.

Code:
[I]Rules: Ladder Match, Sleep Clause, Freeze Clause, OHKO Clause, Evasion Clause, Species Clause, Strict Damage Clause, Soul Dew Clause[/I]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me sent out Miltank (lvl 100 Miltank ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Monomer sent out Dodrio (lvl 100 Dodrio ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's special attack was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Stealth Rock.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Pointed stones float in the air around your foe's team![/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's evasion was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio lost 32% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's evasion was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's special defence was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's accuracy was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio lost 35% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio is paralysed! It may be unable to move![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's attack was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's evasion was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio lost 32% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's special defence was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's special defence was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Weezing (lvl 100 Weezing ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Rest.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio fell asleep![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 51% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio is fast asleep![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing used Thunder.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio woke up![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Aerial Ace.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing lost 33% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing used Thunder.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's special defence won't go higher![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing used Thunder.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Acupressure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's accuracy was sharply raised.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing used Thunder.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing lost 51% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing used Thunder.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Weezing lost 39% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Weezing fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Claydol (lvl 100 Claydol).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Claydol lost 84% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Claydol used Ice Beam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]It's super effective![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio lost 14% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Claydol's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Claydol restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]A critical hit![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Claydol lost 22% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Claydol fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Milotic (lvl 100 Milotic ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic lost 64% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic used Ice Beam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio restored 2% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Milotic lost 42% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Milotic fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Blaziken (lvl 100 Blaziken ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken used Endure.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken braced itself![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]A critical hit![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken lost 100% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken endured the hit![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken's Salac Berry raised its speed![/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken used Blaze Kick.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Aerial Ace.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]It's super effective![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Blaziken lost 0% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Blaziken fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Miltank (lvl 100 Miltank ?).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank lost 55% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank used Body Slam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Miltank lost 51% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Miltank fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me switched in Porygon2 (lvl 100 Porygon2).[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2 traced Dodrio's Early Bird![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2 lost 76% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2 used Ice Beam.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2's attack missed![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2's leftovers restored its health a little![/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2 restored 6% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
---
[COLOR=Green][B]Dodrio used Return.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]Porygon2 lost 30% of its health.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red][B]blastoise4me's Porygon2 fainted.[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=Green][B]Monomer wins![/B][/COLOR]
Note that Dodrio was never switched out. Note that at the end of the match, Dodrio's boosts were +2 Attack / +0 Defense / +2 Special Attack / +6 Special Defense / +0 Speed, +6 Evasion / +4 Accuracy. If it weren't for the evasion boosts, the Blaziken would've likely taken it out, amongst many, many other things.
 

Great Sage

Banned deucer.
You could probably just make up a few logs (you might want to do it on a real log template so you don't make mistakes though). It's not like anyone not in the know about this has the power to check logs anyways.
 

Jimbo

take me anywhere
is a Top Tutor Alumnusis a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Top Contributor Alumnusis a Top Smogon Media Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
I actually have a log with six Paralysis haxes in a row, and a few dispersed in the battle. It wasn't a great battle though and the hax wasn't HUGELY crucial. The log is on my other computer, if you want to take a look let me know and I'll get it.
 
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