NU Stage 7 - Snover Suspect Discussion

[tennisace]

Unfortunately that line of reasoning is completely incorrect. UU has banned both Sand Stream and Drought, which means those abilities cannot be used in UU or any tier below. Politoed, the only non-Uber Pokemon with Drizzle, is OU by usage. I cannot forsee any situation where any other permanent weather becomes available in NU.

 

[Django]

The only way would be UU unbanning Sand Stream, which I don't really see happening any time soon. That is the ONLY other permanent weahter that will ever get anywhere near NU (there is always the chance that it will stay in RU or even UU). UU have stated on multiple occaisions that Drought will never be unbanned anyway, so there is no need to worry about that. The way Smogon tiers work mean we can't just "ask" for something to be unbanned either, and it is not just "fair" to allow all of the weathers because Hail is NU.

 

[jake]

The only way would be UU unbanning Sand Stream, which I don't really see happening any time soon. That is the ONLY other permanent weahter that will ever get anywhere near NU (there is always the chance that it will stay in RU or even UU). UU have stated on multiple occaisions that Drought will never be unbanned anyway, so there is no need to worry about that. The way Smogon tiers work mean we can't just "ask" for something to be unbanned either, and it is not just "fair" to allow all of the weathers because Hail is NU.

Just for additional clarification on this one: as per Oglemi's proposal, even if UU decides to pull another unban of either Sand Stream or Drought out of their ass, it will return to the state where it was initially banned (meaning both abilities would only be allowed back in UU, since they never existed in RU or NU before they were banned). Snover was in NU when UU banned it, meaning the unban dropped it all the way back for us.

Anyone who's voting, please send in your votes to me as soon as possible. I'll close this thread with the results when there is a majority. Thanks in advance!

 

[Nyara]

Hail is NU because:

- Only two abilities to abuse: Snow Cloak and Ice Body

Ice Body only have use on Walrein for it's Substitute + Protect stall, and at some degree for Regice, but even with Ice Body, Regice is still unnable to wall things that he wasn't able to stall before, so, it's just to mantain him more healthy for the course of the battle. That pair is just for accesory stall on balanced teams, because you can't make solid stall teams with the current hail, and offensive teams just don't have any use for Stallrein, or to have a somewhat more healthy Regice.

Snow Cloak by other hand is more decent, but it only have 3 viable users: Articuno, Glaceon, and Beartic. Articuno can use it on more offensive teams to make a sort of Offensive Stall set, pretty effective, but nothing unbreakable, and Articuno still have it's Stall set with Pressure, too. Glaceon have a 20-38% of chance to survive a hit and deal an extra K.O or deal good damge before faiting, but that's all. Beartic can make some use of it on Balanced Sets, but Beartic on Rain with Swift Swim outclass any offensive set of Beartic on Hail. Oh, and also, this ability is already banned on higher tiers, so, it's banned here, too, so, you're not even having this option. (We all know this was banned because - yes - , so, I'm mad about the reason behind it's ban).

Summary: Those abilities are gimnicky at best, except for Walrein, and he's not that great.

- Not important secondary effects: 6% residual damage and more viable Blizzard use

Let's see, 6% of damage just nullifies the recovery of Leaftovers or make a somewhat harder time to some (bad) walls with just Rest to survive, break Focus Sashes and Sturdy users, and make a somewhat benefit to archive some extra K.O's for offensive teams. In other words, it just do the same as Stealth Rock do; of course, you can combine both, but with Stealth Rock available, it just do an extra help with the first and last point, not bad, but far to be broken just because it.

By other hand, the unique reason to use Hail for start of: you can change that Ice Beam for Blizzard on any Pokémon and set that use Ice Beam. Let's see the difference on power:

95 > 120

Yes, it's only an improve of 22% of power, in exchange for some things: less PP, not a problem at all, but you'll have harder times with the walls, and... if the weather is changed (weather teams on NU are not so uncommon), you'll have a move with 70% of accuracy, ugly. Still, if you combine it with the 6% recoil, you'll have better times with balanced and offensive sets of those Pokémon. Nice, but it's unique powerful abuser is Rotom-F, who had the strongest VoltBeam combo of the tier (and at some degree, of the game), Rotom-F can be a real pain to deal with it... if it weren't for it's horrible speed, of course, you can patch it's speed with Choice Scarf, but you can just use faster Choice Scarfer than Roton-F to detrone him, or revenge kill him with priority, or just use prediction: it will just Thunderbolt/Volt Turn? Chose to a Ground-Type (you should have one) Pokémon and force the switch, it will use Blizzard? Choose your favorite Special Wall, or just any Fire/Water/Ice/Steel Pokémon and prepare for the switch. Roton-F without Choice-Scarf is really easy to destroy, just beware of Thunder Wave and Trick.

Even if Rotom-F is too overpowered for the tier (I'm not having troubles to take care of him, but some does, it seems), just ban Rotom-F on place of Snover, derp.

Summary: VoltBeam is a cute combination, and Blizzard is awesome, and the recoil is of help if you're not carrying Spin-Blockers, but even then it rarely allows you to deal extra K.O's, or to use more effective tactics than others.

Oh, yeah, at difference of weathers on higher tiers, Hail on this tier have a drawback:

- Snover sucks as hell, and die by the hands of everything, making it a 5vs6 match

That's all, you're purchasing minimal effects (22%+ of power to Ice Beam, 6% of residual damage - to your non-ice-type Pokémon, too! -, some viable sets) for making the game an effective 5vs6, and even then, you'll have not benefits on a 5vs6 if your opponent is carrying an weather move, great. We all knows that hail seems more stronger that it is really cuz Rotom-F, but Rotom-F is with or without hail a powerful Pokémon, and if hail is the difference that make a borderline Pokémon into UU, Rotom-F should be banned on place of Snover (but I don't think Rotom-F on hail is near to be broken, anyway).

Of course, you have some (and better options, at my sight) for 5vs6 matchs, like Tailwind suicide, and sweep the opposition with Choice-Bands and Choice-Specs, or just Double-Barriers with Light Clay + Status Move lead, it's just piece of cake to set and sweep with the Double Barrier, and more if you can paralize, burn, or sleep one of the opponent's Pokémon. For example, you can just do Tailwind suicide, use Rotom-F with Ice Beam and Choice Specs, and you'll deal more damage than Rotom-F Choice-Scarf with Blizzard on Hail with any move (and you'll have more speed, too).

 

[JCM.]

Snover doesn't suck as hell, he's not bad as a Special Wall. Also, Ice Body isn't released on Regice, so I doubt it can abuse it. Also, Rotom-F without Scarf is very scary, as one of it's best sets is SubSplit, and with an Expert Belt, it can very easily bluff a Choice set.

 

[Nyara]

320 of HP
360 of special defense.
Null Physical defense (don't except it to survive an attack with that set)

And... a horrible, horrible defensive type, weak to all the common attacks of the tier (Figthing, Flying, Rock, Bug, you're done with just that), and weakness to all hazards, yeah, yeah, you know it just summon hail, you switch out him for a second and last summon later. If you'r prediction skills are flawless, you can try for a third summon hail if you switch-in him on a resisted special attack, but that's all you'll archive. If the enemy lead is a special attacker with just attacks resisted by Snover or don't have attacks, you can try for Toxic, Leech Seed, or Grasswristle, and that's all you'll do on the match with Snover, apart from it's ability, of course.

And of course, your opponent can also use your special "tank" Snover as a setup fodder, great. I enjoy of using Snover leads as setup fodder for my Butterfree lead, I had sweet, sweet sweeps.

 

[Raseri]

I originally started playing NU mostly because I hate constant weather wars in OU, and weather in general, so I was a bit worried how will Hail affect the metagame.

The fact is, it did, but not THAT much. What I'm seeing is Duosion appearing more often than Musharna and barely used pokes being used more often (Walrein, Glaceon, even Lampent - just to name a few). It is however far from broken and honestly all it did was add a new, interesting team options.

This post really sums up my thoughts on hail quite well, hail hasn't had nearly as much of an effect on the metagame as I anticipated. As of right now it's just kind of there. There's the occasional blizzspam team that isn't that hard to handle, as they're manhandled by fighting types. I've run into hail stall a few times, but its generally easy to handle. Really, hail just isn't overwhelming at all. It make a few new Pokemon really good (Rotom-F) and made a few worse (Musharna) but outside of that it hasn't changed the metagame that much at all.

 

[Shuckleking87]

Only two abilities to abuse: Snow Cloak and Ice Body

Actually, Snow Cloak is banned, so you really have ice body as the only hail benefiting ability. However, wallrein ice body is more than gimmicky in my opinion, as the ability to stall very effectively. It's speed is very decent for a wall at 65, so a sub protect strategy can work for those slower pokes with no leftovers. Pair that up with toxic spikes and walrein can be a great wall, as with max SpD can take strong neutral and weak supereffective hits while not breaking a sub.

Rotom-F can be a real pain to deal with it... if it weren't for it's horrible speed, of course, you can patch it's speed with Choice Scarf, but you can just use faster Choice Scarfer than Roton-F to detrone him, or revenge kill him with priority, or just use prediction: it will just Thunderbolt/Volt Turn? Chose to a Ground-Type (you should have one) Pokémon and force the switch, it will use Blizzard? Choose your favorite Special Wall, or just any Fire/Water/Ice/Steel Pokémon and prepare for the switch. Roton-F without Choice-Scarf is really easy to destroy, just beware of Thunder Wave and Trick.

86 base speed is not horrible at all, especially in NU. It's choice scarfed set, especially in hail, may be one of the best scarfers in nu as it has very good speed with a scarf, can take priority moves because of its alright bulk and outspeeds the nuisance scarfed sawk and ss gorebyss. Its main problem is rocks. But in hail, a life orb pain split set can be just as dangerous. You are firing stronger blizzards, can heal damage thanks to its low hp stat and have the ability to switch moves. Will-o-wisp would be a scarier status to fear from rotom, as a misprediction can lead to a burnt sawk or physical poke-which isnt good at all! And of course, special walls such as regice, snover, ludicolo, probopass, flareon, grumpig, and lickilicky are going to be somewhat safe switches, because it's their job to tank special hits. However, if rotom voltswitches while you switch into your special wall, you'll be screwed by sawk or whatever physical wall will be brought in and your opponent will have all the momentum. Rotom is a now, and deserving, "S" ranked pokemon, so it's not that east to take down.

 

[ium]

Ice Body only have use on Walrein for it's Substitute + Protect stall, and at some degree for Regice, but even with Ice Body, Regice is still unnable to wall things that he wasn't able to stall before, so, it's just to mantain him more healthy for the course of the battle. That pair is just for accesory stall on balanced teams, because you can't make solid stall teams with the current hail, and offensive teams just don't have any use for Stallrein, or to have a somewhat more healthy Regice.

Summary: Those abilities are gimnicky at best, except for Walrein, and he's not that great.

you're making a huge understatement about ice body. it's not gimmicky at all, and substitute + protect is actually very useful. you are saying as if that move combination is meant for a full stalling strategy, but a lot of glaceon use an offensive substitute + protect set that wears down pokemon to the point where blizzard can KO. it's not meant to fully stall out certain pokemon although it is more than capable of doing so. it's just meant to rack up residual damage on stuff that glaceon (or other ice body pokemon like walrein/vanilluxe) can't immediately handle.

Let's see, 6% of damage just nullifies the recovery of Leaftovers or make a somewhat harder time to some (bad) walls with just Rest to survive, break Focus Sashes and Sturdy users, and make a somewhat benefit to archive some extra K.O's for offensive teams. In other words, it just do the same as Stealth Rock do; of course, you can combine both, but with Stealth Rock available, it just do an extra help with the first and last point, not bad, but far to be broken just because it.

regardless of whether hail's residual damage is similar to stealth rock or not doesn't deny the fact that both of them can be compounded and that hail's effect is effective at all times. residual damage does matter and is pretty much one of the reasons why NU teams need more than one check to hail teams. you could be switching out to emboar while glaceon sets up a substitute. that just means you're going to rack up damage to where a blizzard is going to KO emboar. now you just lost one check and glaceon will still probably have a substitute up while losing virtually no hp at all.

i just find that most of the arguments presented heavily underestimates what hail can do. ice body with substitute + protect is not just for all-out stalling with walrein and is a huge reason why teams should be carrying more than one check. i don't think it completely warrants a ban, but i just wanted to make it clear that it doesn't necessarily mean that hail should be dismissed like that.

 

[Nyara]

Cinccinno destroy your dreams of substitute + protect, oh, wait, he's one of more used NU Pokémon, great (and can just Rock Blast your whole hail team, too, lol). I can think a good number of options that can destroy protect + substitute... like any faster taunt user, any faster Pokémon to deal you huge damage before you actually substitute and make your number of substitute minimal, any double or multi-hit attack, any passive damage (faster Toxic users), Toxic Spikes, and... actually almost whatever, but it's not a so bad strategy to long up more time, but you're wasting two moves to go for it.

Also, Leaftovers users doesn't receive damage at all, so, all you're doing is to autohurt you with them, and Leaftovers you know, is really common. Hail doesn't need specific counters at all, you just need something to handle Rotom-F (actually, something to just handle BoltBeam users with inmunity or resistance to ground), but that's in or outside of hail.

Not all things need counters to being able to handle them, just don't leave a Pokémon to set up a substitute like you should not let a Pokémon set up Shell Smash or Belly Drum.

If Glaceon were faster, that could be a great problem to deal with it, but 65 Base is horrible, so, even if you rack up some residual damage, you'll be most probably get K.O'ed when you try to Blizzard your target. And taking 13% of damage for every substitute is not a low ammount of damage (well, it's 0 with Leaftovers, granted), and worst: your opponent can setup while you're protecting. If your opponent have Leaftovers or a Multi-Hit attack, or any heal move, or any special defense booster, even if you winned that rare turn to set up a substitute will be lost.

Walrein can, by other hand, overcome some of those troubles somewhat better because it's major bulk, so, it will be almost always able to set up a substitute because it's rare to leave him with 25% or less of HP with just one attack, and it's substitute are not-so-easy to break with not offensive Pokémon, so, you can also win an extra turn to heal yourself or do the finish blow.

The turn you're trying to win to get that free substitute you could use it to buff you to the heaven and just sweep the whole opponent's team. Anyway, Ice Body + Protect is still a good tactic to use and is like to use a free-turn Leech Seed effect, but I'm not having problems to deal with them, just hit them hard, or set up while they are protecting.

Note: I'm not telling Walrein with Ice Body is gimmnicky, it is for it is other users who need to win that (hard) free turn to set up the substitute. Walrein can afford to take almost any hit and just stall them to the end of times, but like any staller, it do haves some weaknesses, like... the same Toxic Spikes that can help you, too.

Second Note: If a Pokémon need a Choice-Item to be destructive, then it's not broken, because there's a good number of ways to handle Choice-Locked Pokémon like I said before, but as you said, Rotom-F is one (or the best) Choice Scarfer of the tier, and he's really good on overall. Not Choiced variants are excelent, too, but they are also more easier to handle.

 

[ebeast]

@Nyara

Glaceon is the most relevant Pokemon when talking about Substitute + Protect with Ice Body so I'll refer to it when talking about this.

like any faster taunt user, any faster Pokémon to deal you huge damage before you actually substitute and make your number of substitute minimal, any double or multi-hit attack, any passive damage (faster Toxic users), Toxic Spikes, and... actually almost whatever

• If Glaceon is going to be facing any of the above Pokemon it's going to be behind the Sub or after the Pokemon have taken a Blizzard, which means that Glaceon got the better end of the bargain in the exchange. Faster Taunt users and faster Pokemon in general are more frail than others Pokemon and generally are not even common to begin with besides a few. The most common Pokemon faster than Glaceon that tend to run Taunt would be special Samurott and Skuntank. Skuntank can definitely not stand up against a Blizzard and even with the resistance Samurott does not enjoy taking a Blizzard either. (Also keep in mind that Taunt is not always going to be in Samu's arsenal as it has to be chosen over Megahorn for the last slot) If Glaceon is facing a Pokemon capable of doing enough damage to prevent it from using Substitute or KOing ouright then that Pokemon has been brought out through the means of a free switch (after a KO or using death fodder) as otherwise Glaceon will be behind a Substitute. In either case Glaceon took down a Pokemon or is now in the position to do major damage to another.
  
  
• The only Pokemon that is known to carry Toxic and outspeed Glaceon would be Miltank (Toxic is not even very common on it), everything else is outpaced by Glaceon due to the fact that the Pokemon that actually use Toxic will be defensive; the second fastest Pokemon that uses Toxic is Garbodor, who is outpaced by Glaceon. So basically no Pokemon with Toxic is capable of outpacing Glaceon in the first place and the only one capable of doing so is Miltank. Pokemon with multihit moves include: Cinccino, Piloswine, Rock Blast users. Cinccino is certainly capable of causing a lot of pain with Rock Blast, however it cannot switch into Glaceon for its life, literally. Even if Cinccino manages to switch in safely, Glaceon is capable of easily getting back up to full with Protect thanks to Ice Body + Leftovers and just switching on out of there without any real penalty. Piloswine is not breaking through Glaceon's Substitute with Icicle Spear for obvious reasons and even if it can break Glaceon's Substitute with Earthquake, it is taking a great chunk of damage from Hidden Power Fighting. Rock Blast users include Golem, Armaldo, and Garbodor, and they cannot take Blizzards well at all. Golem gets mauled by Blizzard, Armaldo goes down to Blizzard after Stealth Rock, and Garbodor's unSTABed Rock Blast is not strong enough to deal significant damage to Glaceon. (Hell if Garbodor gets unlucky with its rolls 2 Rock Blast hits won't break the Sub of 112 HP Glaceon)

If Glaceon were faster, that could be a great problem to deal with it, but 65 Base is horrible, so, even if you rack up some residual damage, you'll be most probably get K.O'ed when you try to Blizzard your target. And taking 13% of damage for every substitute is not a low ammount of damage (well, it's 0 with Leaftovers, granted), and worst: your opponent can setup while you're protecting. If your opponent have Leaftovers or a Multi-Hit attack, or any heal move, or any special defense booster, even if you winned that rare turn to set up a substitute will be lost.

• The whole thing about Glaceon using SubTect to get things into Blizzard range works like this: Glaceon uses its massive offensive presence to force a switch and get a free Substitute. From there it can alternate between Protect and Substitute and Ice Body + Leftovers and literally suffer no loss in health once it decides to attack. Base 65 is honestly not that bad, especially when there are plenty of support or defensive Pokemon slower than Glaceon that it can take advantage of. While Glaceon isn't as bulky as Walrein, due to being an Eeveelution it has some pretty decent bulk with 65/110/95 defenses which is enough to take a couple of hits and is enough to have Glaceon's Substitute live an Alomomola Waterfall. I don't really see the whole your opponent can set up if you're using Protect thing. What in NU wants to set up on a Glaceon behind a Substitute? SD Samurott is 2HKOed by Blizzard after Stealth Rock so that's out of the question and Duosion is 2HKOed by Blizzard even when taking one Calm Mind into account. The only thing with a boosting move that I can think of that could set up on Glaceon while it is behind a Substitute would be Rock Polish Regice. Even then, Glaceon can just hit it with HP Fighting as it sets up and Life Orb stall until Regice gets into the range of another Hidden Power Fighting. On the note of Rotom-F, I'd just like to say that while the Scarf set is a great revenge killer, SubSplit Rotom-F has to be its most destructive set. The power behind LO Rotom-F's STAB TBolt and Blizzard truly make it something to be feared. Base 86 Speed is not slow at all in the NU metagame, I don't really get where you got that idea from.

By the way this is not me saying that Hail is broken. I do not think that Hail is broken due to the inherent problems that it faces as well as Pokemon already great in the metagame (Regice, Piloswine, Emboar, Sawk, Cinccino for example) being capable of checking it well. Like ium said, Hail is not something you can just brush off. It is a relevant and powerful force in the metagame and coming unprepared against a well made Hail team will spell trouble for you.

 

[Nyara]

Actually, you're thinking that you can eternally force switches with Glaceon, and that's how works the tactic, in part, but in fact, you need to force not one, but two switches in order to do something, you want to force a switch wit ha Cinnino still alive on the game? Yes, you will setup your substitute, and Cinccino will destroy you once you used protect. And if you DON'T subsitute, you risk to be destroyed by a large amounts of Pokémon.

The fact is, any Pokémon who can get by any chance to setup a substitute and had good attack or special attack can do the same, if you allow Glaceon to stall you, it just the same as allow any wall to stall you, but any minimal decent player will NOT allow to let you do stall, and will just attack Glaceon with everything and leave it out from the range of substitute, and even if you manage to predict that you can't substitute and just attack right away, your opponent will just lose a weakneed Pokémon, because Glaceon don't tend to OHKO too much stuff, and even if she does, that could make her job just as any standar offensive Pokémon.

Offensive and hyperoffensive (even balanced teams are more-like offensive teams) are the predominant styles of game on Black and White, specially on NU and OU, so, you can't just pretend your opponent will just not attack just right away and let you abuse of Ice Body. And if he allows you to do that, it's because he does have a reserve plan like a Cinccino behind the scenary, any Rock Blast user on general, a Pokémon who can't be OHKO by Glaceon with a recovery move, or in fact any Pokémon with Leaftovers who can take a hit and break it's substitute, or spin-block your spinner and leave those Toxic Spikes always on the your side of the field.

So, you need to predict hard or have luck in order to make Glaceon with Protect + Substitute work.

Things that can setup on the face of Glaceon when you know it will protect on almost the half of the turns? Any bulky Pokémon on the special defense side who can take a Blizzard and is faster than Glaceon, or just can take two Blizzards + residual damage, not a impossible task either. If you're aiming to do it in that way, of course, there a lot of ways to handle it already. Or use an Ice-Type Pokémon to counter it (Beartic can setup on you face without fear, for example).

Like I said, I'm not having troubles with hail, and I'm not carrying any specific counter or check apart from Rotom-F (and actually, any BoltBeamer).

Dedicated Hail teams are usually fail, while teams that use Hail + 1 Abuser (Walrein for stallers, Glaceon/Dewong/Rotom-F/Articuno for balanced, Rotom-F/Vanilluxe/Beartic for offensive) + Blizzard spammers are quite effective and pretty good on overall, but they are nothing unstopabble, and are high-risk high-reward tactics by the nature of it's typing.

 

[Manveru123]

I was under the impression that Cinccino is going to RU, so is he really relevant for this discussion?

 

[Nyara]

I was under the impression that Cinccino is going to RU, so is he really relevant for this discussion?

Change Cinccino for Golem alive (with Rock Blast and Leaftovers, for mantain it's Sturdy), it's the same. Gardobor, Octillery, Bastiodon, Corsola, and special defensive variants of Armaldo (each one with Rock Blast, of course) doesn't have any trouble to break it, either.

 

[watashi]

golem and armaldo will die to blizzard before they can make a move. octillery and garbodor don't have enough power to break through glaceon or other hail abusers and will be 2hkoed.

 

[Honey boo boo]

I agree. Golem isn't sassified enough to break through hail. Camperupt is pretty sassy cause it can set up rocks and attack with awesome fire attack! That licking thing does well against hail too b/c of cloud nine and does well against most threats due to flamethrower!

 

[Nyara]

golem and armaldo will die to blizzard before they can make a move. octillery and garbodor don't have enough power to break through glaceon or other hail abusers and will be 2hkoed.

Special defensive variants of Armaldo, and Golem with Leaftovers and Sturdy can, like I told, of course; physical tank or just offensive sets of Armaldo can't, like a Golem without sturdy can't, too.

Octillery HAVE the power and can just destroy Glaceon's substitute and it's face everyday (unless it's a special attacker variant, then Octillery will have troubles, but like I said, I'm talking about Rock Blast users, if you don't have one, then don't let Glaceon to sub). Offensives sets of Garbodor can easy break it, while it's defensive sets can take it's hit quite well (unless you don't invest nothing on special defense, then nope), break it's sub, and deal good damage on the process, it will win the 1vs1 at the long run, or just leave Glaceon without substitute and setup some hazards before fainting, that's almost the same.

 

[WhiteDMist]

Special defensive variants of Armaldo, and Golem with Leaftovers and Sturdy can, like I told, of course; physical tank or just offensive sets of Armaldo can't, like a Golem without sturdy can't, too.

Octillery HAVE the power and can just destroy Glaceon's substitute and it's face everyday (unless it's a special attacker variant, then Octillery will have troubles, but like I said, I'm talking about Rock Blast users, if you don't have one, then don't let Glaceon to sub). Offensives sets of Garbodor can easy break it, while it's defensive sets can take it's hit quite well (unless you don't invest nothing on special defense, then nope), break it's sub, and deal good damage on the process, it will win the 1vs1 at the long run, or just leave Glaceon without substitute and setup some hazards before fainting, that's almost the same.

To be fair, both Specially Defensive Armaldo and SubProtect Glaceon can 2HKO the other.

4 Atk Armaldo Rock Blast (3 hits) vs. 112 HP / 144 Def Glaceon: 162-198 (54.18 - 66.22%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ SpA Glaceon Blizzard vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Armaldo: 178-211 (50.28 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

But if you are assuming that Glaceon is already behind a Sub (which it should be), then Armaldo loses the exchange regardless. It can't switch into a Blizzard safely without taking another hit immediately afterwards since it is slower. Even if you get Armaldo in safely, what's to stop Glaceon from simply using Protect during the interim turns to recover and inflict some Hail damage to Armaldo to guarantee that you can't 2HKO it before it 2HKOs you? Golem has a similar problem in that it can't safely switch in either, and once it takes a Blizzard, it dies plain and simple (Hail damage gets calculated before Leftovers recovery if I am not mistaken). Garbodor is rarely offensive, and it tends to be physically defensive due to its typing. The extremely rare Specially Defensive is still 2HKOd by Blizzard and has trouble even breaking its Sub with Rock Blast (it takes at least 3 hits). As for the offensive variant, it simply gets OHKOd after Rocks and the turn of Hail (and has a 75% of being OHKOd with just the Rocks damage).

With Octillery, besides the fact that no one uses physical variants when its Special movepool is so extensive (and the fact that it is really uncommon in the first place), it needs a Choice Band to actually do more damage than Specially Defensive Armaldo (which has its own problems). Besides, you still need to switch in safely, since Blizzard 2HKOs, while you have to deal with Protect recovery and residual damage from Hail. Add that to the fact that you can't guarantee the amount of hits, Cinccino is really the only Rock Blast user that can reliably defeat Glaceon, (but it still needs a safe switch in).

Edit: Sorry EBeast, if I had known you were gonna post, I wouldn't have bothered. :P

 

[ebeast]

EDIT: I always get ninja'd when I make long posts. Still I went into a lot of detail on mine, so it should still get the point across.

Octillery is not very relevant in the first place, much less a physical variant with Rock Blast.

I'll go over the situations of Glaceon vs Garbodor and Armaldo just to show that Glaceon has the upper hand. These are all assuming that there is no Stealth Rock on either side of the field and with Glaceon being behind a Substitute. These conditions are being set because if you're saying that having a Rock Blast user is enough to beat Glaceon, you're going to be relying on it as a switch in. You cannot keep the pressure against Glaceon the entire match. Again this is assuming that Glaceon went for Substitute; if Glaceon is not going for Substitute, chances are it is using Blizzard and your Rock Blaster bites the dust right away.

Glaceon vs Standard Garbodor

Glaceon goes for Substitute as Garbodor switches in

HP: 88% [Ice Body + Lefties after Sub]

HP: 100% [Black Sludge canceling Hail buffeting]

Because there is a Garbodor out on the field, Glaceon will Blizzard over Protecting to prevent hazards from being set up and the fact being that Garbodor isn't much of an offensive threat to Glaceon in the first place. Regardless of EV spread Garbodor is 2HKOed (Running 252 SpD with Careful is kind of wasteful in the first place) so Garbodor will either set up a layer of Spikes and allow Glaceon to get to full and be behind a Substitute or attempt to break the Substitute. For the sake of this I'll assume that Garbodor's Rock Blast hit the average of 3 times and that Blizzard does average damage against Garbodor's standard spread. The EV spread on Glaceon that I'll be using will be 112 HP / 252 SpA / 144 Spe Modest as the spread allows Glaceon to outspeed standard SubBU Braviary and everything slower while allowing its Substitutes to live an Alomomola Waterfall.

• 0 Atk Garbodor Rock Blast vs 112 HP/0 Def Glaceon: 11.37% - 13.38% (8-9 hits to KO) [Per Rock Blast hit]
• 252 SpAtk Glaceon (+SpAtk) Blizzard vs 252 HP/0 SpDef Garbodor: 70.05% - 82.42% (2 hits to KO)

HP: 88% [Rock Blast breaks Sub in 2 hits and deals 12% to Glaceon with the 3rd. Ice Body + Lefties heals it off]

HP: 24% [Blizzard damage and Black Sludge is canceled out by Hail]

Next turn Glaceon is free to KO Garbodor and Ice Body + Lefties bring it back up to 100%.

I could go into detail about how it fares against Offensive Spikes Garbodor but I'll let these calcs do the talking:

• 252 Atk Garbodor Rock Blast vs 112 HP/0 Def Glaceon: 14.05% - 16.72% (6-8 hits to KO)
• 252 SpAtk Glaceon (+SpAtk) Blizzard vs 4 HP/0 SpDef Garbodor: 84.72% - 99.67% (2 hits to KO)

Again, Glaceon is not guaranteed to go for the Substitute in the first place. If Glaceon is not Subbing up, it is using Blizzard and your Rock Blast user will get destroyed.

Glaceon vs Armaldo

Armaldo just gets 2HKOed regardless of spread and with Stealth Rock goes down to a single Blizzard. Specially Defensive can tank a Blizzard even after Stealth Rock but in the end Glaceon's Substitute lives a single Rock Blast hit due to Armaldo's Attack being uninvested in an SpD set, which allows it to play around it with Protect. Again this is assuming that Glaceon didn't just go for Blizzard in the first place.

HP: 88% [Ice Body + Lefties after Sub]

HP: 100% [Leftovers canceling Hail buffeting]

Glaceon can just Protect here to get back to full. If Armaldo knows what's good for it, it would be using Rock Blast on this turn anyways. Unlike Garbodor, Armaldo poses a greater offensive threat to Glaceon so it can risk taking the turn to Protect to keep its health up.

HP: 100% [Ice Body + Lefties after Protect]

HP: 100% [Leftovers canceling Hail buffeting]

• 0 Atk Armaldo Rock Blast vs 112 HP/0 Def Glaceon: 20.93% - 24.92% (5 hits to KO) [Per Rock Blast hit]
• 252 SpAtk Glaceon (+SpAtk) Blizzard vs 252 HP/252 SpDef Armaldo (+SpDef) : 50.28% - 59.6% (2 hits to KO) [2HKOed thanks to Lefties being canceled out by Hail]

Again we are assuming average damage on every attack and the average amount of Rock Blast hits.

HP: 90% [Ice Body + Lefties after taking 22% from Rock Blast hit]

HP: 46% [Leftovers canceling Hail buffeting]

Next turn Armaldo goes down and Glaceon ends up at 100% again. Let's do some more calcs just for the hell of it though, with 4 and 5 Rock Blast hits.

If Rock Blast hits 4 hits Glaceon is left 68% after the first exchange. From there it can Protect go gain 12% and finish Armaldo off afterwords, with Ice Body + Lefties granting Glaceon another 12% at the end of the turn. Glaceon is left with 92% at the end of the exchange.

If Rock Blast hits 5 times then Glaceon is left with 46% after the first exchange. Again it can Protect to get some health back and KO Armaldo the following turn, gaining more recovery in the process. Glaceon is now left with 70%. Not too shabby for the worst possible situation against a Rock Blast Pokemon using a niche EV spread, eh?

The moral of the story is that if any Pokemon is relying on prediction it has to be the Rock Blast users. Not only are they not very reliable against Glaceon, but they are a one time check that have to brought in by predicting correctly against it. That doesn't sound like Glaceon is the one being pressured to me. Even with we put Rock Blast Octillery into the equation, it still takes a ton from Blizzard and will be dead weight against the rest of the metagame. The only Rock Blast user that is going to be more or less reliable against Glaceon would be Skill Link Cinccino, which cannot switch into Blizzard whatsoever. You really need to give Glaceon and Hail some more credit, like I've been saying this whole time it is not something you can just brush off.

 

[JCM.]

Chances are, you have SR laid on the field. Golem and Armaldo can't switch, and they are way too slow. Cinccino is obviously a problem to Hail teams, but you use Regirock or any other Pokemon to counter that. Snover's typing can't make it resist a whole lot a things, as it can counter Ludicolo, Special Samurott and Electric-Types. Also, remember, there isn't only Sub+Protect Glaceon out there. Specs Glaceon just wrecks everything in NU, even Water-types such as Alomomola and Wartortle are 2HKO'ed.

Edit: Holy crap, EBeast, we posted at the same time..

 

[ium]

on the topic about cinccino, it will get worn down more easily over the course of the match than glaceon will, simply owing to the fact that it's also susceptible to all kinds of hazards. the difference is that there is no way cinccino is gaining back the hp.

first of all, if cinccino comes in as glaceon uses substitute and protect, then glaceon will be able to scout it and gain all the hp back the next turn and switch out. cinccino basically just lost 24% hp (assuming stealth rock is up). if cinccino uses u-turn or switches out of whatever comes in, then it has to take another 12% and possibly more hail damage later in the match. if cinccino comes in after a kill, similar situation except it loses like 18% hp which still racks up.

then there's the fact that cinccino is most likely going to be holding a life orb or choice item. yeah king's rock is possible, but the others are far from relevant. life orb just stacks even more damage, so cinccino will be taking around 1/3 of it's hp just to have glaceon switch out and be preserved. a choice item means that you're predicting even moreso than the glaceon user has to.

of course the glaceon user does need to predict between using substitute or an attack at times, but the fact that it can recover back its hp and that it's likely for a competent hail team to carry a cinccino check means that it's cinccino who will be more pressured since it dislikes residual damage more. it's a double-edged sword; both users have to play around each others' threats, but glaceon will have the better end of the deal. also using a specially defensive spread on armaldo and garbodor is actually pretty niche honestly. there's no reason to actually give them a spread like that.

i'm not going to say that glaceon doesn't have its own problems since it doesn't switch in so easily to many things as well, but at best, cinccino is a shaky check and really isn't an end-all-be-all answer to hail.

also, to be quite honest, if it really comes down to glaceon having to stay in on cinccino, it still wins if it has a substitute up. cinccino will be using two hits for the substitute. it won't KO glaceon while cinccino is OHKO'd in return with blizzard.

252Atk Life Orb Cinccino (Neutral) Rock Blast vs 112HP/0Def Glaceon (Neutral): 90% - 107% (270 - 320 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO. 42% chance to OHKO. (this is for five hits with glaceon having no substitute)

i'm lazy to type out more, so here:
[16:15:59] <@ebeast> each rock blast hit does 20% on average
[16:16:04] <@ebeast> so 2 to break sub
[16:16:12] <@ebeast> you take 60%ish from the rest
[16:16:20] <@ebeast> get 12% back from ice body and lefties
[16:16:28] <@FLCL> gfg
[16:17:20] <@ebeast> so you're left with 52%

 

[Antar]

Guys, just so you know, this discussion is pretty much moot, except in a theorymon sense. Snover is going RU tomorrow. It's not even going to be close.

 

[jake]

I have received 7 votes, and all are for no ban (I'll edit them into this post when I receive the others). Snover is not banned from NU for one more day. :)