4 SpAtk Life Orb Absol Fire Blast vs 252 HP/0 SpDef Bastiodon: 20.99% - 24.69%
He leads with Medicham, no damage incurred. Medicham outspeeds due to Scarf and OHKOs, thus making it impossible for him to take two attacks from Absol.
Yes, I completely agree, and your math is technically wrong, as fire blast has a 15% chance to miss each one, so by the 3rd attack it's 3 times every 20,000 (your example it's 10,000 not 100,000). So you are saying that this could not happen? It Could. Yes, I know it's about impossible to happen. But look at the kadabra and altaria/torterra example. There is 0% chance that kadabra dies if it uses HP Ice. For the given example, it's practically a 0% chance to happen. But if it's not a guarantee, then what is the percent error that is allowed to occur for the example to still hold true?
I thought the purpose was that one of your pokes had to switch into the core and take a hit before the scenario began, like in the given example, kadabra had to switch into an attack that would bring it to its focus sash. Medicham could come into absol while it's night slashing, then sucker punch to kill. If the scenario is to have either poke on the field before the opponent attacks, then medicham works. But i thought this was't true as the example of sceptile not switching onto moltres means that an attack by the opponent happens first. And I'm not contradicting myself at all based on how I thought the process worked. Contradicting would be giving the whole example and then saying that bastiodon always come in first, which I did not do and do not appreciate that claim.
The damage formula gives 16 values, though some of those values can be the same, so it's 1/16^6. Assuming best case scenario, player predicts protect and uses thunderbolt to preserve pp. But besides that, I know the core prett much almost always works, I would just like to know the lee-way percentage for future use.
Even with what you said, you still lose because when you switch Bastiodon in on Absol, he can simply Fire Blast you to break Sturdy, and then switch to Gallade as you sub and kill you with a double Close Combat, whilst Counter or Toxic can't do much back, afterwhich you Giga Impact to kill him with Medicham, Absol switches in and Night Slash + Sucker Punch to kill.
Turn 1: you switch in and Gallade attacks you
Spiritomb @ Chesto Berry
Trait: Pressure
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def
Impish Nature
- Rest
- Sleep Talk
- Will-o-Wisp
Switch into Gallade / Absol take a hit. Take a hit another time, fully restore your HP with Rest. In third turn use WoW and cripple one mon. Finally proceed to continuously resting you until they will die. Even considering Thunderbolt / Fire Blast from Absol cant 3HKOed you at all, and for this reason isnt a problem. Also you can PP stall out Fire Blast and Stone Edge thanks to Pressure, that makes much more easy to win for Spiritomb. Even if the opponent switch out when you are resting an the other mon isnt burn, you have a 50% of use Will-o-Wisp with Sleep Talk.
Switch in, survive with Sash, sweep with Torrent Surf. End of story.
The minimum defensive EVs and IVs ensure even the resisted hits bring Simipour down to Torrent, so that Moltres won't have a coinflip's chance at surviving. In the event of U-Turn, Low Kick or Aqua Tail, simply Sub down to Torrent and you're in the clear.
Alright, already foresaw this, but you have to hit 2 Hustled moves in a row. To connect an 80% accurate Superpower and a 72% accurate Rock Slide, your odds are 57.6%. Is that good enough to be considered a counter? This is not considering the fact that if you were completely predictable and the opponent switches to Moltres into 2 of your Superpowers, rendering your -2 Superpower unable to KO Aggron even after 2 Rock Slides, the latter being weakened by your 1st Superpower...assuming they all hit.
Yeah, that's true. I'm not sure if I'm able to change it, but I found another one that's a counter (with only a 30% chance to fail)
Like it says in the rules,
That's why I couldn't post again last round when I screwed up those calcs with Torkoal.
