So I've seen a lot of arguing over exactly how likely it is for Lapras to beat Thunderbolt Chansey with its vaunted parafusion. I thought this was pretty silly, since the actual probability is an undisputable fact. So I figured I'd run the numbers myself and see what popped out.
Now I realise why nobody did this before.
As Smogon hasn't implemented the spoiler tag, I'm going to just link you to the full calcs here.
Anyway, here's the relevant shit.
Paralysed Chansey vs. healthy Lapras
9.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.7% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
73.0% Chansey wins.
Chansey switching into Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
62.6% Chansey wins.
Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Lapras
13.3% Lapras wins.
86.7% Chansey wins.
Chansey switching into paralysed Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins.
80.2% Chansey wins.
Honestly, Lapras does better than I thought (my initial estimate was "between 2 and 3 freeze chances" ie 17-25%). Oh well, now we know.
m9m out.
Now I realise why nobody did this before.
As Smogon hasn't implemented the spoiler tag, I'm going to just link you to the full calcs here.
Anyway, here's the relevant shit.
Paralysed Chansey vs. healthy Lapras
9.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.7% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
73.0% Chansey wins.
Chansey switching into Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed.
17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed.
62.6% Chansey wins.
Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Lapras
13.3% Lapras wins.
86.7% Chansey wins.
Chansey switching into paralysed Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed
19.8% Lapras wins.
80.2% Chansey wins.
Honestly, Lapras does better than I thought (my initial estimate was "between 2 and 3 freeze chances" ie 17-25%). Oh well, now we know.
m9m out.
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