What niches will they lose? That's the question.. They are all still powerful wallbreakers with sweeping potential, and I'm not saying that they were just more common during the aegislash x/y metagame.. I'm saying now they have lost a fair share of viability from the introduction of new metagame threats like metagross.
They've already lost viability due to opportunity cost.
How is aegislash going to make something already unviable, unviable?
Aegislash is either going to:
Improve their viability shifting metagame trends to their favor,
OR, do absolutely nothing and have them see the same UU/RU usage they received in OU already before this entire suspect test even was live.
That, is the point I'm trying to voice. The argument of "everything will be unviable" isn't necessarily as dramatic as others make it out to be.. I do agree jirachi and metagross will become difficult to use, and gardevoir alongside diancie will have a new check, however I do not believe those few mons are particularly enough of interest for overcentralization in comparison the number of pokemon checked, countered, outclassed, or RK'd by things like talonflame, lando-t, and metagross.
I don't want to accuse this of being your intention, but the impression I feel like I'm getting from your words is that because these mons like Pinsir and Heracross, who were hampered by Aegislash are already starting to drop off a bit, that they shouldn't be considered for losing viability if Aegislash comes back.
The thing is, there's no glass floor for how far a Pokemon's viability can drop. Just because Pinsir was A+ in a Meta with Aegislash and is A- in a metagame with Metagross doesn't mean he'll stay A- in a Meta with Aegislash AND Metagross. Any Mega that is hampered by Aegislash suffers from his presence. Metagross might start to drop off a bit if Aegislash comes back, but that's not necessarily to Pinsir's benefit, because Pinsir has just as much trouble with Aegislash, if not more.
Aegislash wouldn't gloss over their issues, he'd compound them moreso. Heracross's best sets tends to be Pin Missile/Close Combat/Rock Blast/ Sub | SD, a set he could never get away with in an Aegis meta because he needs EQ to stand a chance against the sword.
If Aegislash comes back, Heracross, who's already in B+ with his best sets, would have to revert to an overall inferior set to compete. So his list of problems goes from "Speed and opportunity cost" to "Speed, Opportunity cost, and trouble with the tier's best Pokemon". And regardless of where USAGE puts him, the viability rankings dictate how effective the Pokemon is in practice in the current meta: whether there's one Heracross or 1000 Heracross teams, if he's B+, he should perform at the level B+ entails. If something comes in that reduces his effectiveness, his viability drops.
New meta trends have already dropped previously A- threats like Medicham into the low B's/High C's. If Aegislash comes back, Medicham could go as low as D : on top of competition as a Mega and a Wallbreaker, it's a wallbreaker that can't reliably beat the tier's most influential tank/wall.
Most Pokemon get hurt with this because most of the Pokemon seeing the most usage/viability already are also the ones that benefit most from Aegislash's support, indirectly by just making their checks less common, and directly because he's adept at beating the ones that are left. The good get better at everything else's expense. If the point of suspecting Aegislash is to reign in problematic high tier threats, the test fails that objective because most of the problematic ones (Landorus-I, Keldeo, Bisharp to some extent) gain more than they lost from Aegislash's presence. Arguably the most damaging one besides Metagross (who was already Suspected), Landorus-I, was S-Rank during Aegis, very briefly dropped when Lando-T surged after Aegis' ban, and is now back up in S anyway without Aegis. Landorus would be back in a similar boat to his Aegislash-era S-Rank, only now he has even more sets to toy around with against the teams Aegislash puts weight on: the Genie spam only gets worse.
The Giratina-O suspect may have been an April Fools' joke, but I feel like it actually got closer to the purpose than Aegislash will: everything took a hit in viability, INCLUDING those high threats like Landorus-I, Keldeo, and Metagross. Ridiculously centralizing though it would be, Giratina-O accomplished its proposed purpose of nerfing/checking threats running rampant and putting them in line with other mons in the tier. Aegislash does not accomplish this job sufficiently: Without King's Shield he's not effective enough defensively to check them consistently; with King's Shield he provides too much to them support wise. One of the characteristics of Metagross, for example, is his bulk affording him chances to come in and then being tricky to force out: Aegislash can do the latter, but what's to stop Metagross from getting back in and forcing Aegislash to take more damage if he can't use King's Shield to defend himself? Aegislash is liable to crumble under offensive pressure if he can't use King's Shield to exploit his defenses properly alongside Leftovers recovery, but with it, he checks everything too well to not carry numerous checks to Aegislash, which again constrains teambuilding.
Either we have teambuilding limited by having to account for Aegislash, or we let it run wild and rampant by not putting such a weight on it. I won't deny that there is an element of match-up to the metagame, but isn't the point of teambuilding to cover as many threats as possible to minimize/avert situations where team match-up ALONE decides the match?
Ya garde was still viable in the Aegi meta x andy , it just requried more support than it does without
The problem is that being forced to run Shadow Ball to not forfeit momentum to Aegislash was a serious constraint on Gardevoir, to the point that the support she required didn't make her an appealing option as a wallbreaker. Gardevoir needs coverage, but if she uses Shadow Ball, she either forfeits a coverage move, or loses her Utility slot, meaning she can't Stallbreak nearly as well.
Charizard-Y was at one point A+/S rank during Aegislash's meta, and while maybe there was some rank inflation, I can see the justification: Zard-Y was one of the few Megas at that time that could do its job consistently regardless of Aegislash, because Aegislash's presence didn't require it to run coverage that it wouldn't use for nothing else; that's without getting into the much lesser viability of checks like the Latis. Most of the other Megas (wallbreaker or otherwise) suffered in viability because they lost effectiveness against everything else if they did/could prepare for Aegislash
- Heracross can't use Sub/SD since he needs EQ (I remember some sets actually forgoing CC for it even)
- Gardevoir loses Stallbreaking ability because on top of Aegislash potentially forcing it out, it can't have a Utility slot anymore
- Medicham (and no Gallade) are just kind of SoL because their only option for decent damage (Fire Punch/Knock Off) just bounces off King's Shield, and Shadow Ball hurts
- Pinsir running EQ over CC left him walled by Skarmory
- EQ is less than optimal coverage choice for Mega Aerodactyl
Another thing to note: A lot of mon's generic "anti-Aegislash" option is EQ. Aegislash, however, gained Magnet Rise from the ORAS transition. If you consider he gets free turns if these mons can't Quake him, Magnet Rise is an entirely viable option for defensive purposes (hell, it'll probably replace King's Shield on a lot of sets if it gets banned). Hell, if he pulls it on the switch, he walls Landorus-I for the duration, one of the only top threats that could still break him otherwise. Aegislash only gained more things to check and more tools to check them with from ORAS.
Pages and pages of "Without King's Shield, Aegislash will be bad" and I'm on the side thinking that those posts are pretty cancerous. This isn't about how bad Aegislash is (per se, considering this is a Suspect Test, but more about how it would be in OU, King's Shield or no King's Shield. If it means removing that one move to balance this Pokemon, as it does have a Priority Option, so be it. If there's an option that removes it from Ubers, it should be taken under much more serious consideration. Sure this means Aegislash becomes 1-Dimensional and only the smartest trainers can use it, but we go back to the whole concept of the Suspect Test: Is it OU worthy under one or both categories?
I want Aegislash back in OU, but I also don't want to see it take many of the comeback Pokemon like Jirachi and Celebi away.
tl;dr Less Viable or Unviable doesn't matter. If it's OU or lower with or without KS shouldn't matter. Things that potentially belong in lower tiers should be seriously looked at.
The problem I have is that banning King's Shield is liable to be biased right now towards the idea of letting Aegislash back into OU. If a suspect had been on the move before this test came to be, I'd accept that, but the introduction of the option seems more like an attempt to nerf Aegislash enough to drop more than the move itself being an unhealthy tool in the game, which has been the root of every other move/ability ban in Smogon's history to my knowledge. Even then, there are problems to be had
- If Aegislash doesn't fulfill his role without King's Shield, the suspect for him was meaningless because he didn't accomplish the purpose he was meant to by being reintroduced.
- If Aegislash does fulfill his role without King's Shield, we implemented a ban that would not have come to mind without testing him, meaning King's Shield's ban is still intrinsically tied to Aegislash's presence
The second option especially feels sour to me, because that feels like we're jumping through hoops and stretching the ban philosophy on moves/abilities to bring Aegislash down to make a healthier metagame. I know the policy tends to be balancing the game with as few bans as possible, but isn't our policy also avoiding "broken checks broken" even moreso? If we have to go to such lengths to bring a (previously or otherwise) broken mon into the tier as a check, that indicates to me instead that we should've just suspected some other things instead.
- If they're not broken enough to suspect, why was it necessary to bring down such an obviously influential, centralizing, and tier warping Pokemon for them?
- If they are broken, they should've been suspected before we tried to introduce anything back into the game.
Now, that might raise the question of whether or not Aegislash's presence stops them from being broken
- If Aegislash is not broken, he stays, but how much does that impact their broken status? Mawile was a broken mon, but nobody noticed because those qualities only shone through when Aegislash was gone, but overwhelmingly so without him.
- If Aegislash IS broken, we brought down a broken mon to check threats broken or not. More to the point, Aegislash would probably be liable for another test, and if he's banned, we're right back where we started and would probably end up suspecting those Pokemon anyway.
The OP states
The current OU metagame is characterized by the presence of incredibly powerful attackers, such as Mega-Metagross, Mega-Diancie, Mega-Gardevoir and so on. We believe that a Pokémon like Aegislash, while being potentially overcentralizing, could provide a reliable and all-round check to many of the aforementioned threats
It outright admits Aegislash could be potentially overcentralizing, but is being introduced as an all-round check to these threats.
- If they're not broken, but making the game match-up reliant, they can't be banned. I think that's just the metagame we have to sit on. It's not like it's unplayable as some people seem to suggest
- If they are broken... again, why didn't we just suspect them? Not just Aegislash, but any Uber should be reintroduced not because it will stabilize the tier or anything, but because the tier is not healthy and stable enough already and they don't have a negative effect on it anymore. By this logic, since Mawile is not broken in an Aegislash meta (considering I recall little discussion of it on the chopping block until after Aegis was banned), what's to stop us from suspecting Mawile next? It doesn't thrive on its broken traits in an Aegislash meta, so does that mean it's not longer a banworthy mon on its own merits?