One thing I've noticed about a lot of battlers on shoddy battle just from talking to them is that they assume the best. That is, when planning their teams defensively, they ignore the prospect of added effects (such as Ice Beam freezing) or critical hits. In DP especially, many teams rely on "counters" that are merely 3HKO'd by their adversary. This means that one bit of bad luck sends their counter crashing down, and then they complain on the main chat about hax. This is where the concept of the switch rate comes in. Any given Pokemon can switch in n times to a 3HKO move before the odds of that added effect or crit exceed the odds of those things not happening (thinking in terms of team building so using cumulative odds). The switch rate is the number switch which switches the overall advantage of the switch in from the defender to the attacker. If the defender has to switch into that attack fewer times than the switch rate, the defender has the advantage. If the defender has to switch in equal or greater times than the switch rate, the attacker has the advantage.
This is modeled by move, not by individual switch in. I'm ignoring Sand Veil, Serene Grace, Compoundeyes, Super Luck, and other factors that would change the properties of the moves, though you could certainly do the calculations for those cases. The main presumptions are:
1. The Pokemon being hit is hit while switching in.
2. The Pokemon being hit will lose if either the crit or the added effect happen, even if hit from full health.
General case: .5 >= (move accuracy)(1- ((1-crit rate)(1-added effect rate))^switch rate)
Moves:
100% accurate no effects (Earthquake, Hidden Power, Aura Sphere, etc.)
Example:
Leftovers Garchomp Earthquake vs Milotic
Switch rate:
11
In general, relying on these 3HKOs for defenses are very safe. Moves like Draco Meteor don't even have enough PP to reach the limit, and only a really hyper-defensive strategy is likely to exceed this.
100% accurate 10% effect (Ice Beam, Flamethrower, Thunderbolt, elemental punches, Psychic, etc.)
Example:
Specs Porygon-Z Ice Beam vs Dusknoir
Switch Rate:
5
This is probably a lower number than you expected given the high result from Earthquake. Yes, that freeze rate on Ice Beam has a huge effect after all. I should note that at 4 the odds are nearly 50/50 very slightly in the defender's favor (about .6%). These switches are usually assumed to be safe but really should only be relied on a few times. The odd example used here was the first I could find despite how common these moves are.
100% accurate 20% effect (Crunch, Shadow Ball, etc.)
Example:
Choice Band Tyranitar Crunch against Swampert/Hippowdon
Switch rate:
3
You don't want to be switching into these moves more often than you have to. Not even a great tank like Hippowdon can really be counted to consistently come in on Tyranitar because of the very low switch rate.
85% accurate no added effect (Megahorn)
Example:
Heracross vs tanks neutral to bug
Switch rate:
14
I only included this silly case because of how prominent Heracross is. You can feel pretty safe even if your best counter is 3HKO'd by Megahorn, assuming you have a way to heal back the damage.
85% accurate 10% added effect (Fire Blast, Meteor Mash)
Examples:
Specs Moltres/Heatran Fire Blast vs Blissey
Metagross Meteor Mash vs Hippowdon (among others)
Switch rate:
6
I feel so happy to be able to include a case involving Blissey, and yes the burn does ruin her in that switch-in (the little bit of extra damage takes away her safety margin from the repeated Fire Blasts entirely). Metagross also has a ton of these with Meteor Mash; I just used a simple to calculate example. These aren't all that safe, but they are at least more reliable than the Ice Beam style move cases due to the reduced accuracy.
80% accurate high crit rate moves (Stone Edge, Cross Chop)
Example:
Leftovers Tyranitar Stone Edge vs Skarmory
Switch rate:
8
If only high crit rate moves were 25% like in RSE, this would be 4. Anyway, despite the fact that people tend to fear critical hits a lot more than usual from these moves, they really aren't a terrible much more dangerous than standard moves with perfect accuracy (note that this suggests that you switch into every single PP of Stone Edge). The added effect moves are a bigger threat overall.
90% accurate 70% effect (Charge Beam)
Common cases:
Cresselia Charge Beam vs Gyarados
Switch rate:
1
There's a lesson here. Don't switch Gyarados into electric attacks.
I hope people were able to get the mathematical point I was trying to make. When planning your team to switch into threats, don't assume they won't get crits or freezes or whatever. Plan from the start that you're on a probabilistic timer. Can you eliminate the threat without having to switch in as many times as the switch rate? If your answer is no, you don't have the threat covered. If yes, you should be able to handle the threat over half the time.
This is modeled by move, not by individual switch in. I'm ignoring Sand Veil, Serene Grace, Compoundeyes, Super Luck, and other factors that would change the properties of the moves, though you could certainly do the calculations for those cases. The main presumptions are:
1. The Pokemon being hit is hit while switching in.
2. The Pokemon being hit will lose if either the crit or the added effect happen, even if hit from full health.
General case: .5 >= (move accuracy)(1- ((1-crit rate)(1-added effect rate))^switch rate)
Moves:
100% accurate no effects (Earthquake, Hidden Power, Aura Sphere, etc.)
Example:
Leftovers Garchomp Earthquake vs Milotic
Switch rate:
11
In general, relying on these 3HKOs for defenses are very safe. Moves like Draco Meteor don't even have enough PP to reach the limit, and only a really hyper-defensive strategy is likely to exceed this.
100% accurate 10% effect (Ice Beam, Flamethrower, Thunderbolt, elemental punches, Psychic, etc.)
Example:
Specs Porygon-Z Ice Beam vs Dusknoir
Switch Rate:
5
This is probably a lower number than you expected given the high result from Earthquake. Yes, that freeze rate on Ice Beam has a huge effect after all. I should note that at 4 the odds are nearly 50/50 very slightly in the defender's favor (about .6%). These switches are usually assumed to be safe but really should only be relied on a few times. The odd example used here was the first I could find despite how common these moves are.
100% accurate 20% effect (Crunch, Shadow Ball, etc.)
Example:
Choice Band Tyranitar Crunch against Swampert/Hippowdon
Switch rate:
3
You don't want to be switching into these moves more often than you have to. Not even a great tank like Hippowdon can really be counted to consistently come in on Tyranitar because of the very low switch rate.
85% accurate no added effect (Megahorn)
Example:
Heracross vs tanks neutral to bug
Switch rate:
14
I only included this silly case because of how prominent Heracross is. You can feel pretty safe even if your best counter is 3HKO'd by Megahorn, assuming you have a way to heal back the damage.
85% accurate 10% added effect (Fire Blast, Meteor Mash)
Examples:
Specs Moltres/Heatran Fire Blast vs Blissey
Metagross Meteor Mash vs Hippowdon (among others)
Switch rate:
6
I feel so happy to be able to include a case involving Blissey, and yes the burn does ruin her in that switch-in (the little bit of extra damage takes away her safety margin from the repeated Fire Blasts entirely). Metagross also has a ton of these with Meteor Mash; I just used a simple to calculate example. These aren't all that safe, but they are at least more reliable than the Ice Beam style move cases due to the reduced accuracy.
80% accurate high crit rate moves (Stone Edge, Cross Chop)
Example:
Leftovers Tyranitar Stone Edge vs Skarmory
Switch rate:
8
If only high crit rate moves were 25% like in RSE, this would be 4. Anyway, despite the fact that people tend to fear critical hits a lot more than usual from these moves, they really aren't a terrible much more dangerous than standard moves with perfect accuracy (note that this suggests that you switch into every single PP of Stone Edge). The added effect moves are a bigger threat overall.
90% accurate 70% effect (Charge Beam)
Common cases:
Cresselia Charge Beam vs Gyarados
Switch rate:
1
There's a lesson here. Don't switch Gyarados into electric attacks.
I hope people were able to get the mathematical point I was trying to make. When planning your team to switch into threats, don't assume they won't get crits or freezes or whatever. Plan from the start that you're on a probabilistic timer. Can you eliminate the threat without having to switch in as many times as the switch rate? If your answer is no, you don't have the threat covered. If yes, you should be able to handle the threat over half the time.
