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Ok, I believe what's happening is that your timer0 value is increasing to c80 whenever you hold a button. Try to hit a seed with a timer0 of C7F with no keypresses, and then try to hit a seed with a keypress and a timer0 of C80.
You can either keep saving an additional time to advance the PID and eventually hit a synchronize frame (faster method) or you can get rid of your syncher (I heard it messes with nature results) and learn how to manipulate natures.
You need to advance the PID frame. It looks like you're on frame 48 so just save once before you encounter it (make sure u hit your seed) and it should be jolly.
No, you either didn't walk in the same pattern both times, or you didn't hit your seed both times.
This is either because your timer0 is changing (which sucks since there's really not much you can do about it, keypresses usually advance the timer0 by 1) or there are turning NPCs and you aren't...
I use this post from Toast. It's not 100% but it should help you determine a range. Make sure you take the same exact path every time since turning also advances the frame.
I know for a fact that the old guy doesn't interfere with the PID since I rng'ed a cobalion today (he doesn't move anyway). I don't recall any of those outdoor daycare npcs moving but if they do, then I'm not sure how people rng breed.
Edit: Or they may grab the egg immediately before any npc...
Try finding your parameters again, the timer0 you got may be one that appears less frequent. You're starting the game 1-2sec(depending on your actual second result) before the seed time right?
As long as no moving npcs are around and you don't move at all, you're starting PID frame will be...
I'm gonna take a stab at this, I believe you can go into the time finder and set the method to Method 5 PIDRNG. Then make the min frame 60 and the max frame 70, you'll get a bunch of seeds with shinies a few frames away from your starting frame (which is 40-60). So just hit one of those seeds...