XY Metagame Speculation [SPOILERS ITT]

[MMII]

Approved by TMon

Since we've already got a lot of information on XY and we'll be getting the games in a month, a general speculation thread will be a good way to keep it all in one topic. (instead of having a bunch of individual ones die off once that piece of news is exhausted) We don't care about OU, we don't care about what OU bans, and we will not ban anything from Ubers.

For those who aren't aware of any of the changes, check out Serebii's page.

Recent (most likely Ubers relevent) news:

• New type chart! Fairy resists Dark, Fighting, Bug and is immune to Dragon while weak to Steel and Poison. It is resisted by Steel, Poison, and Fire while hitting Dragon, Fighting, and Dark. Steel has lost it's Ghost and Dark resists.
• Perma weather was needlessly nerfed to lasting only 5 turns.
  
• MegaMewtwo X stats: <Jibaku> 106/190/100/154/100/130
• MegaMawile stats: <imanalt> so mawile is 50/105/125/55/95/50
• Xerneas stat estimates: <JibaNOTHERE> new ranges: 115-126/132-143/95-108/131-145/93-101/99-114
• Yveltal ranges: 126-135/131-134/94-95/131-132/98-102/99-101 (thanks jiba)
  
• Mega Gengar with Shadow Tag and 60/65/80/170/95/130
  
• Mega Abomasnow
• Fairy/Stell Klefki has prankster Spikes
  
• Rock/Fairy Carbink better get good recovery
• For other stuff check out this post: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/pok%C3%A9mon-xy-data-collection.3489182/

So discuss

 

[Haruno]

Megagene plz. Double download boost <3 makes shift gear godly if mega gene keeps download

 

[IcyMan28]

The creator of that suspected leak came forth on 4Chan last night and admitted to it being fake. However, Garchomp receiving a Mega makes it likely that the other pseudos will, most notably Metagross.

I think these changes will only make Dialga that much more popular. It may have reason to start running Flash Cannon or something similar, but as it stands the time lord is one of 2 dragons not weak to the Fairy type. In fact, it pairs well with it since Fairy resists Fighting attacks aimed at Dialga as well as the Dragon attacks and Dark attacks it no longer resists.

 

[Karpi]

You guys are overlooking what is probably the single most important addition to the game in the last 5 years - DAMAGE REDUCTION ABILITIES. That weird white llama thing has an ability that "reduces physical damage".

A 12% damage reduction (for example) has been used on modded simulators before, and it was enough to make things like Lapras and Wailord OU with no other changes to the pokemon at all.

 

[MMII]

Yeah, that was something else that interested me. However, we only know for it to exist on that dog (which'll likely suck in Ubers) and we don't know how much it reduces the attacks by. Plus, we already had Intimidate to do basically the same thing. I'm very hyped about Fairy type, though.

EDIT: Nvm, Pokebeach has confirmed that it cuts contact moves in half. This is very interesting. (May even make this dog an ubers relevent wall!)

Also, it's not new news but it's something that's often overlooked so I'll mention it here: Speed Boost + Baton Pass Mega Blaziken. The new Torchic event is locked into Male but that doesn't stop you from breeding a Blaze Blaziken with Baton pass and giving it a Blazikenite to get Speed Boost as Mega Blaziken. This makes me really want a physically bulky Unaware mon that would be relevent in Ubers. (more so now that Steel mons have lost Ghost resist so SD Ghost Arc is scary)

 

[Fireburn]

Basic thoughts:

-I don't actually think most dragons will be too affected. The biggest losers here are the Latis since Xerneas/Yveltal/Fairy Arceus all seemingly take massive dumps on them lol. CM + Psyshock might be able to bust Xerneas depending on how fast it is, but Fairy Arceus can best them 1 vs. 1 since neither can use Steel or Poison moves effectively. Rayquaza is also sad as he can't really afford to run Outrage or blindly spam Draco Meteor anymore, but I expect SD with V-create would still be a good option. Dialga didn't lose much - though he lost his Ghost/Dark resists, he not only isn't weak to Fairy but can actually use his Steel STAB to crush them. Reshiram is in a similar boat. Palkia still has powerful Water attacks to fall back on, Zekrom has STAB Bolt Strike, Kyurems have Ice Beam, Giratina formes will always be useful, though Dragon Tail isn't such a good option anymore. Gira-A can just use Roar though, whereas SubCM/Sub + Shadow Force might be the new standard for Gira-O.

-Dark-types are hurt more by Fairy-types then helped by the nerf of Steels. Darkrai will struggle to beat Fairy-mons (Xerneas/Fairy Arc) since they resist Dark/Fighting, monoDarkceus is still stopped by strong special tanks and Fighting-types, and TTar isn't really a sweeper.

-Yveltal could be anywhere from "good" to "the second coming of RBY Mewtwo" depending on his movepool and stats. Either way he's a Dark that isn't weak to Fighting, which could make him a good offensive Ghost Arceus check.

-Xerneas will probably be common since his typing lets him beat so much crap (DRAGONS, fighters, darks), if he's built like Dialga or something he'll make a great tank.

-I don't expect anything to happen to Groudon or Kyogre. Sun might be more popular since Fires gained that sweet Fairy-resist. Heatran has a x4 Fairy resistance which is nothing to sneeze at, and there's now even more of a reason to use Ho-Oh. Because you needed another reason to use Ho-Oh.

-Genesect lost his Ghost/Dark-resist but gained the ability to smack Fairies with his STAB Iron Head for SE damage, which depending on how domineering fairies (Xerneas) are could be a fair trade.

-Tentacruel might be more common as a rain-spinner that can somewhat check Fairies.

-Ghost Arceus is still a massive threat. Though he's probably going to be checked by Yveltal, CM can now reliably beat ToxicSplit Forrretress (though it still has most of the same checks) and SD can afford to run Shadow Force now, making it a force (heh) to be reckoned with.

I think the metagame will largely depend on how powerful Xerneas and Yveltal turn out to be since both are shaping up to turn Ubers upside-down and inside-out based on typing alone.

 

[MMII]

As for Dragons, I agree with you Fireburn. Mind you, things can change radically depending on what other mons get Fairy typing but the way things are now the only losers are Dtail spammers (Tina-O, which is a pretty big metagame change) and Choice attackers. (that now have their strong STAB soaked up by what is likely to be a common immunity) Outrage users get fucked to although idk how the locking mechanics work with immunities.

I don't think the two legends will be anywhere near as good as RBY Mewtwo. Although, I do agree they have the potential to be very good. Funnily, enough, they'll both need strong bulk to be major metagame threats as their strength will come from their typing on the defensive end. (unless they get some ridiculous signature moves)

Too be honest, I think the biggest changes will be for Girtaina-O, SD Arceus-Ghost, and Speed Boost Baton Pass Mega Blaziken. The first is going to radically change his sets (DTail was so big for him) which, along with the SD Ghosty buff, may even result in different sets (or at least spreads) out of the spinners. The latter two are going to be important offensive threats (especially Blaziken since Tina-o will not be running much phazing anymore). SD Ghosty is probably the most likely to have common counter measures too as you just need good offensive Dark types or bulky Dark/Normal types. (faster Substitute users will be interesting but those are kinda rare and SD Ghosty already runs Sclaw with Sforce) Besides Perish Song Arceus, you'll need like some new physically bulky Unaware to stop Mega Blaziken from Baton Passing a bunch of SDs everywhere against Stall (cause, unlike Ninjask, Blaze is not hazards weak, has phazing, and real offenses). Idk what offense can use to deal with Speed buffs getting passed around. Bulky Offense will definitely be even more popular and will also have to shift towards using more defensive checks than before.


Terrakion's fucked.

 

[Karpi]

Depending on how offensive Yveltal is, it might make a great baton pass recipient to Blaziken, since it definitely takes care of Giratina.

 

[Haruno]

So guys did anyone mention how fairy/ground have perfect coverage?

 

[Champion Steve]

Ho-oh? Fairy/Ground is no Fairy/Ghost or Fairy/Dark, I'm afraid. And I can definitely see Ghostceus using a Fairy attack over Focus Blast if it has more accuracy. Though the loss of SE on Dialga could be a problem.

 

[Swamp-Rocket]

So guys did anyone mention how fairy/ground have perfect coverage?

Weezing, Ho-oh, Charizard (lol), Moltres, Crobat, Rotom-H, and Skarmory resist the combo. Ho-oh and Skarmory are relevant so this is a bit of a problem for the combo.

 

[Haruno]

Weezing, Ho-oh, Charizard (lol), Moltres, Crobat, Rotom-H, and Skarmory resist the combo. Ho-oh and Skarmory are relevant so this is a bit of a problem for the combo.

SD fairyceus with fairy stab/stone miss/eq/sd could work. Though Ho oh is probably the biggest problem with it since it's an even better wall now. Skarm took far too big of a hit with ghost/dark hitting it neutrally now.

 

[MMII]

Nah, Skarmory is still good it just doesn't wall SD Ghosty anymore. We also don't know what attacks there are for Fairy mons, the only one who's function we now for sure is a 60 BP attack move that recovers the damage dealt. This makes me think that most Fairy moves are going to be supportive in nature and that we'll see something similar to Dark/Ghost in that no move goes beyond 80 BP (besides Judgment).

Speaking of Fairy/Ground, Pokebeach points out something that may be cause for possible speculation of it and two other moves being dual type. If this is true, judging from the name it looks like this may be Fairy/Ground lol.


Edit: I found a Dark type to handle Ghosty!
+2 252 Atk Arceus-Ghost Brick Break vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Umbreon: 284-336 (72.08 - 85.27%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

and Foul Play obviously OHKOs back :D

Speaking of Eeveelutions, what about Sylveon? It was shown tanking Politoed Hydro Pumps in the rain (crits too) so it's very likely it got the 95/130 spread for it's SpDef which, along with all those support options, could make it another nice choice for stall teams.

 

[Haruno]

• Grass-type Pokémon are no longer affected by Leech Seed, Spore, Stun Spore, PoisonPowder or Sleep Powder
• Electric-type Pokémon can no longer be Paralyzed
• Ice-type Pokémon can no longer be Frozen
• Ghost-type Pokémon are no longer affected by moves that trap them such as Mean Look

Discuss plz

 

[Blue Jay]

Apart from Spore (I believe Grass types were already immune to Leech Seed?) on the occasional Smeargle (lol Breloom), all of those are rare. Smashpass takes a hit I guess.

Zekrom, Thundurus-I and Arceus-Electric are all relatively rare (Zekrom being the most common at 7.8% usage) and very few Pokemon in the tier consistently run Thunder Wave, so I don't see this as more than a minor buff for said Pokemon.

I'm not sure who was hitting Ice types with Ice moves, but that's nice I guess.

No one uses trapping moves in Ubers.

 

[MMII]

It's still nice to have the convenience of Zekrom absorbing Thunder Wave or something. Plus, we don't quite know what new mons will rise up to be threats in this metagame and, assuming they don't fix the sleep mechanics, having an immunity to Sleep Powder (and Spore too I assume) is really nice.

 

[SmashBrosBrawl]

Aparently ghosts are now immune to all forms of trapping. So giratina, arceus ghost(unboosted) and giratina-o can switch out of wobbufet without being encored or having to deal with counter and mirror coat. This also means that the future shadow tag lure cant trap them. Paralysis immunity to zekrom is great since now it can actually switch into thunder without any problems and becomes a realiable paralysis absorber for the team. Immunity to spore is wonderful to make smashpass life harder. Honestly none of these changes seems to make much of a impact in the CURRENT metagame but only time will tell how the xy metagame will benefit from them.

 

[MMII]

I wish it was general trapping but serebii uses the word "moves" which leads me to believe it's just irrelevant shit like Mean Look. (not trying to sound dickish just pointing out it's kinda murky on the details) But yeah I agree that for the current metagame these changes aren't large but who knows what we'll get!

 

[Bryce]

Something I noticed is that,with Steel losing it's Ghost resistance,SD Normalceus got a pretty big boon.Shadow Force is now more usable,since even without the STAB,it is as strong as Espeed. It hits steel types such as Forretress,Ferrothorn,Dialga,Skarmory for neutral damage dismissing the requirement of running Brick Break/EQ.You lose out that solid hit on Dialga with EQ but It's only a bit weaker than SE Brick Break and hits forry harder. As it now no longer requires a 3rd coverage move that much,it can freely run Recover/Refresh in the final slot making it much more difficult to handle.Heck it can now even run other coverage moves such as Fire Blast or Grass Knot with less drawbacks fucking up checks like Skarmory or Groudon.

 

[skies]

As Bryce said, Shadow Force/Shadow Claw will make ExtremeKiller Normalceus very deadly. Skarmory can no longer wall it that much. It can however still survive with Sturdy then Whirlwind it away. Also, note that even though Sableye is very rare, it now has a weakness and will now be walled and useless against a ton more than it usually is.

 

[Vincent]

Based only on typing (since stats and movepool are yet unknow) Ghost-Arceus will be an even more dangerous threat in the metagame, but Yvetal will be its archenemy, and as a consequence Xerneas will be Ghostceus best friend helping take Yvetal out of the way.

Dialga has great sinergy (both offensive and defensive) with Yvetal, since it can destroy Xerneas with STABed SE steel attacks while resisting a lot of types including two of Yvetal's weakness, and Yvetal is immune to one of Dialga's weakness and neutral to the other, and resists Dark and Ghost which are resists that Steel type (and Dialga as an extension) had lost. But it doesn't end like this, Dialga has sinergy with Xerneas too, since Xerneas is immune to dragon, which Dialga is the only Steel type that doesn't resist it, also Xerneas resists Fighting and give Fight mons a hard time with SE STAB, while Dialga resists Steel and are immune to Poison.

 

[Talpr0ne]

Paralysis is still a very annoying effect, and being immune to this is very nice, also Zekrom can now switch into thunders or thunder waves whitout fear.
Immunity to Spore from Grass type is unrelevant in Ubers, Smeargle can simply start to run Dark Void rotfl, thought i agree that this affects OU a lot(Breloom now is walled by every grass type not named Abomasnow, Cradily or Ferrothorn).
No one runs Mean Look lol.

 

[Blue Jay]

I don't see why people think Zekrom being able to switch into Thunder Wave/Thunder users is great. Sure, it can be occasionally convenient to avoid paralysis. But switching in?

Let's look at common Pokemon that may carry Thunder Wave (because apart from Thundurus-I virtually nothing is guaranteed to have it):
Kyogre - Oops it was Specs and used Water Spout/Ice Beam (Thunder Wave Kyogre is rare anyways)
Groudon - It checks most my sets, best switch in
Dialga - It can usually hurt me more than I can hurt it
Lugia - It's the sub Toxic set because the ladder is bad
Ferrothorn - It might actually just Leech Seed/Spike, not to mention that it walls most my sets

Thundurus-I is also probably the most common Pokemon that commonly uses Thunder that Zekrom happily switches into.

Yes, this is only the current metagame, but even in gen VI, unless things change quite drastically, many Pokemon carrying Thunder Wave will probably be quite risky to switch into. I do not see this being more than a tiny buff.

 

[Donkey]

what has happened to my metagame

fuck you nintendo

 

[MMII]

Dragon Tail Tina-O is dead, come back to us Donkey.