Lie, Cheat, and Steal Mafia Thieves Win

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
That would only apply if we set an open agreement on the next AB game, otherwise there would be no reason to punish anyone who decides to betray since the fear of the other side betraying as well is a reason that most people can accept. Even if they kill someone, you can't really fault a person for betraying when it's honestly expected from a low Point person to pick Betray just to make sure they don't die from an Ally if no prior agreement was made.

If we do set up an agreement that everyone should choose ally the next AB game, that now has a trade off because of two reasons:

A. 4 people would reach 9 one game before the others, this could potentially trip the balance either way, and in the same way 4 people would reach 9 only after 4 games, again this would easily tip the balance. This also practically destroys the point of getting the SINGLE CYCLE AFTER REACHING 9 POINTS immunity to kills, because there'd always be people for the mafias to kill, and for all we know even if we got the whole village to 9 at the same time to 100% waste mafia kills, they could still potentially have not nightly kills, which is actually very likely considering this games has alternate ways to get people killed.

B. Do we even want to do that? I kinda have the feeling that mafia would benefit more from reaching 9 points than the village, we yet again have no idea how much of an impact getting 9 points have on either faction. V0nFielder never said that village would get the superior abilities, he only stated that once you reach 9 you can't be killed for a cycle, a single cycle mind you, which is nice don't get me wrong, but for all we know it could include being lynched, which would mean a mafia could openly betray the pact, and be unlynchable for a round, this needs to be cleared up. Mafia would also only need to force a betray on a round that benefits them, whether because they are a solo or they manage to convince their partner that the other side is likely to stab or it's just that mafia get lucky and they get into one pair, which in case of the two mafia teams allying is much more likely than you'd think. Going blindly for a game wide Ally has some huge downsides. Oh lets not forget that most of the above means mafia could just go along with it and happily accept reaching 9 on tons of their members, essentially wasting that part of the game and making it p much a standard game with likely little to none info roles on the village, go figure.

Oh and in all honesty, I can see a villager more likely to break an Ally pact than a mafia, simply because for a mafia playing along means survival and they are a group effort, while the village, without any way to establish actual leadership and protect it, is more about individual survival. The result post seems to indicate your points are your life line, village is simply more likely to be driven to betray. Honestly I already also suspect the low point people of being mafia orchestrated Ally-s just to make them look cleaner, heck even knowing the the enemy pair was a mafia buddy of theirs who they wanted to boost, which is a net gain for them, especially if low point mean less for mafia survival and more for villagers.

Basically what those points mean, you don't get clear information from the AB games, if anything they are no different than voting in NOC games, another source to bases your theories on, but just aren't anything specific.

That being said you don't have to follow the NOC style if you don't like it, this game allows you to do all the shady behind the scene deals you want to. Both can lead to success, but one can't ignore the other without biting them in the ass.

tl;dr:
A. Von never said village got better power from 9 than mafia, only that the kill immunity for a SINGLE CYCLE after reaching 9 points is good for villagers and we don't even know if it applies to lynches which in turn would balance this benefit out.
A+. Mafia being united is in a better position to use their bonus abilities to their full potential, village is likely to be too splintered from lack of solid dependable leadership
B. We can't get everyone to 9 at the same time, so the mafia can easily use their kills on whoever didn't reach 9 yet or has already reached it 2 cycles ago, not to mention the likeliness of limited number of kills on the mafia even if we get everyone to 9 at once
C. Only Allying would throw away any potential info we could gain from the AB phases and essentially turn this into a normal game where the village likely has Zero info roles
D. But NOC and OC are OK, just don't ignore the other or it will likely get you killed.

As for what I propose instead of a full scale Allying Pact:
ALL THOSE WHO ARE PAIRED AGAINST SOMEONE WITH 1 POINT MUST CHOOSE ALLY.

No reason to potentially eliminate a villager for the mafia just because we are not doing mass allying. Naturally if you have the guts to risk you offing a mafia this way, go ahead risk being lynched on a gut feeling.
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Basically getting everyone to 9 is more likely to waste a village lynch than waste a mafia kill.

While the power increase is something to consider the fact organised village leadership is unlikely to happen renders this point somewhat moot until very late game. Unless it essentially turns extremely nerfed roles into their normal counterparts which end up allowing leadership,though I feel the rules indicate that even then they won't be quite up to par nor give us a secure leadership. I could see us using a generally trustable person who reached to 9 points as a temporary village leader for a cycle, at least as long as they are unkillable so we get a breather of organised effort, naturally that is highly conditional since it needs to be a trusted person who somehow reaches 9 points(which would be yet again made moot by my Allying since part of the leadership's function is denied when the majority of the mafia is unlynchable for said cycle). Still one of the few viable options to have some form of leadership, situations could be orchestrated afterwards to set up a new leader who'd reach 9 for next cycle's protection and leadership if the previous leader deems them trustable. Again highly specific scenario, but fairly effective if it happens and likely depends on subjective view of the player's record during the game rather than solid info, and the first leader has to be trusted wwith picking a suitable leader or breaking the chain, which ever is less risky, or if picking a new one is even possible if there is no one suitable that can reach 9. If anything it helps to push villagers towards 9s rather than everyone, if the temporary village leader can give conditional Ally or Betray orders to the more trusted villagers, possibly even passwords so they can discover the trust level of the user that they end up allied with. Man that sounds pretty amusing.

Funny thing is I only planned to write 2 sentences this post, go figure.
 
I don't think we can really say anything about this AB round. I'll be important to analyze what's going on in later rounds, but right now? Not so much.

I was going to suggest the "Everyone Ally, Betray=Lynched" plan. I don't see what the problem is in rushing everyone to 9 - who cares if we don't guarantee a blocked kill? vonFiedler just confirmed that the village gets it better off. Even if the mafia is organized, the village has better numbers, so it's not like the mafia is the clear winner when more power is introduced into the game. That said I'm actually pretty hesitant to do this because it sounds way too easy and we don't know if there's anything that can fuck it up.

The other idea I had in mind is rush the people who are leading in points to 9, but we could get unlucky, I guess. I'm still thinking it through.

btw moi should explain why it took him so long to answer kok if kok's going to accuse him in the open like that, I'm not really seeing why he ignored him. We don't know what kind of roles the mafia teams have so cleaning people over roles is dangerous.
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Power roles are useless if there are only individual minds to use them, let me put this simply. If mafia gets 3 rocks and the village gets an assault rifle if they all reach 9, you will have a large number of people pointing in random directions where the gun should be fired while the mafia can calmly sit down, and discuss which heads to bash in with their rocks.

Of course we are also not getting anything from this round of AB game, because no one expected it, the only thing I wish to ask is what were some of the players who went ally smoking, so I will, I really want to know why you guys have decided to vote Ally considering the risks, considering I don't hear much open bitching about why the other party betrayed it feels like the Ally-ers expected to be fucked over.

Rushing 4 random people to 9 is pointlessly random, what do we accomplish? Give mafia clear targets to eliminate after killing randoms for a cycle, or you know they could just go ahead and kill them off before they reach 9. The only reason to rush someone to 9 is if you can do it without anyone noticing and said person should be trusted enough to use his temporary invincibility to bring stability.

As for the moi thing, I'd rather wish to know when he asked moi, post-AB or pre-AB? (In his defense, if I was asked pre AB I'd likely have pretended to be idle because why the fuck should I tell kok my role name, and if post AB I'd have told him flat out no because real identity has been quite important in the game this is based on)

For the next round really priority should on keeping 1 pointers alive by ALLYING IF PAIRED AGAINST ONE. Other than that letting it play out for a round where people actually know it's coming might be beneficial(I'd love to have a partner this time). Sure it's not gonna accomplish, much improvement point wise, but it should protect us from village 1 pointer deaths and this time it could grant us more to go on considering people have time to make outside deals before the No Communication starts. Naturally if we can come up with a plan that doesn't rush us into our well timed deaths by throwing away an info gathering method in hopes of 9 points giving us BGs and inspects and them not dying before we reach that point. Honestly at this point I favour a everybody for themselves approach, rush yourself to 9 without getting anybody killed then apply for village leader and pray people trust you based on what you have said.
 
LightWolf sure talks a lot, I am just gonna tl;dr that for now and say this:

Me, my bro Da Letter El, ginganinja and penguin344 are at 1 point. What this means is that if any of us is betrayed, we DIE. If you ever see any of us dying because of betrayal, assume that the pair that betrayed us killed us!

Also: if you are opposing any of us, please, for love of all that is holy, ALLY. Me and El are nice people, we won't betray you guys :3
 
vonFiedler mentioned you get 'penalized' once you reach zero points. While still far from fortunate, this doesn't sound like you get killed right then, or am I missing something?
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
You are missing the post where he said "If you post during the AB Rounds you get penalized which means you are D-E-A-D"


And The-Me, pairs change every round, you will be with someone else against some other pair, or maybe a solo.
 

sandshrewz

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Ugh I reached home too late. Anyway kingofkongs please retract your lynch against moi :| I suggested allying initially because dumb and talked to moi on irc because I realized late that betray is better. moi mentioned that ally would be a very mafia-ish move because it can benefit mafia. Say like mafia have already contacted each other and they know who to ally with. That's enough reason to ensure that moi is village. If he was mafia he'd have agreed immediately when I suggested ally beforehand. Betray is the better move for village since it's better if no one gets anything than both sides getting something. I don't care if village gets a better buff because they become obvious targets for mafia especially if they have their own buffs. I haven't put too much thoughts into the AB phase right now but I'd say this: Betray should always be the option for villagers unless you are sure your opposing members are villagers

With that, let me do something unexpected of this game which some might view to be dumb. All villagers claim with me. While you may not paste (whole?) PMs yet, I would like all villagers to claim to me what their roles are by describing as usual etc. FURTHERMORE, I'll like you to tell me who have you claimed to if you have and what you've claimed. If you've claimed you were X role to Y person, tell me that. Vice versa if someone has claimed to you their role, tell me that too. Do not lynch anyone yet until I start off this first lynch. I do not want a random lynch killing a villager :/ You have 24 hours as of this post to claim with me. I will not entertain further claims afterwards. I know this is very demanding that you have to trust me that I am a villager without a means of cleansing since normal inspection doesn't exist right now. I am proposing this because precisely as I'm new, I do not have a reputation of lying and I will not want to put my reputation at risk by making a major lie if I am because I do not want to end up like ipl where no one will trust me in future games.

To let you in a bit further, I was going to claim martyr since moi mentioned that it was a village role and would better convince other villagers. Since this is now not very possible as kingofmars have forced him to claim his role already, I shan't lie about my role then though it doesn't really matter what my role is. Anyway, my role is useless for now and will not mind taking the n1 kill from mafia if they decide to. My role is only useful after death so lol. Mafia come at me ;)

I can guarantee that information claimed with me will not be lost if/when I'm dead. I have spent hours planning my moves to ensure that villagers can keep in touch while keeping moles from mafia to a minimum, though that's probably very unbelievable for a beginner. That is a risk you will have to take. My plans are not full proof but it'll get better as time passes even without my control. So yes, villagers claim with me. I invite the mafia to try and fake claim with me too ;) While I have no experience with village mafia, it doesn't mean I'm completely inapt at this game. Also, the first lynch I'll pick will be someone who did not claim with me. While I don't like pressuring people to trust me and claim with me, it will be of best interest for villagers to trust me and claim with me. Ask yourself this question, if anyone else was willing to pull this off, will you trust them over me? I know this sounds very self-promotive but yea it has to be done. I am doing an early sacrifice because I believe it will benefit the village in the long term and there is no one else more suited for this.

I'll think about the AB thing more later but I'm going to sleep so that's all for now. All the best to villagers! :) Please claim with me~

edit: because I didn't want to edit the below post just in case. New post cos editing tags in do not give alerts :(
 
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sandshrewz

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And UGH I forgot to tag people -.- So please don't mind the double post. Ace Emerald Acklow askaninjask Blue_Tornado Celever Da Letter El Ditto Fatecrashers FireMage ginganinja kingofkongs Laurel LightWolf macle moi More Cowbell penguin344 THE_IRON_KENYAN The-Me theangryscientist @UllarWalord Walrein

Tagging everyone because I want to ensure everyone sees this so no villager accidentally forgets to visit this thread and don't claim with me and get unlucky with first lynch.

Also reasons for 24hours to claim is for time to lynch people after getting all claims and restricting time to fake claim.
 

sandshrewz

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you mistagged me

I'm not sure whether to feel special or not
I suck :( typing at midnight doesn't help either :( well at least you saw it xD

edit: my reasoning as for moi being villager is flawed as pointed out by someone. I will comment on that again tmr. Sorry :c

edit2: if villagers are worried that I might spread information to the wrong person, don't worry too much about that. I'm pretty paranoid when it comes to giving away information and I'm not giving it away easily, if at all :)
 
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sandshrewz

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I fake claimed inspect my very first game, your argument is invalid.
which ones? I know a few are flawed because /night /brainnotworking. I will be reviewing my post tmr :/

As a last resort, I just die without giving anyone any info though it shouldn't come to that. Also fake claiming will be realized in the long run without too much negative impact. I'm not giving everyone role info etc. They will be very confidential and known to few / none depending on role. If something wrong starts happening, fake claims can be identified through elimination. Though this is going to take time, it can be done without significant impact given that roles will not be known to more than a few people. A few is a lot anyway.
 

Ampharos

tag walls, punch fascists
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D1 massclaim is way too drastic of a step IMO and with a lack of BG it just give the mafia a list of priority targets to take out. We can easily find mafia via scumhunting, we don't have to jump immediately to our last resort step.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
Guys I'm not saying by any means that "OMG SANDZ IS SOOOO VILLAGE U GUYS SHOULD TOTES AMAZEBALLS CLAIM 2 HIM BC HE IS UNBETRAYABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" but I thought I would throw out here that I give him the "quiz" N0 about whether village is liars, cheaters or thieves way before Von posted that they are the liars, so that might help towards his.. uhh... cleansing?
 

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