The Everything NFL Punter Thread - 2014/2015 Season

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DM

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http://deadspin.com/luck-is-hockeys-bullshit-dump-1589814304

This article is fantastic, and it perfectly explains football "luck" as well. I remember CK ranting and raving (weird, I know) about San Fran losing to the Giants because of "luck", based on the punt returner who had a ball graze his leg. Allow me to point to one particular passage:

"Luck is really just a word for causal determinism on a level too micro for us to measure. A puck bounces a certain way or a player loses an edge in a crucial moment because of high-level collision physics, not because of true randomness."
In essence: there was nothing lucky about the way ball bounced into that guy's leg; MAYBE HIS DUMB ASS SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO IT IN THE FIRST PLACE. There is no luck, only human mistakes aided by laws of physics.
 
I don't think anyone was trying to imply that there was a higher power at work in the NFC Championship game or any other game. Of course it's just timing and physics coming into play when you spin a roulette wheel. That doesn't mean it's not "lucky" when it lands on Red 16 and you land the jackpot. That's all luck (in this context) is - a favorable low probability event occurring without being directly caused by someone. Whether being too close to the ball counts doesn't particularly matter imo.
 

DM

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Your comparison is inapposite. When I play roulette, I have absolutely no control over where the ball lands, that is completely out of my hands. On that punt play, the punter placed the ball in a spot where the returner would have to make a tough decision about whether to field it or not. Every returner is told, since fucking pee wee, to GET AWAY IF YOU'RE NOT CATCHING IT. He did not. It touched his leg. Fumble. Giants recover and win. End of story. There is no luck, no probabilities, only human error.

And before anyone responds with "THE BOUNCE WAS LUCKY THE PUNTER GOT LUCKY": I punted in high school. There are different methods to kick the ball so that when it lands, you get different bounces. No luck.
 

Mr.E

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It's still lucky on the part of the Giants, since they had no control over the execution of SF's punt returner and he just happened to execute his part of the play (retrieve or avoid the ball) so damn poorly in a high-leverage situation.
 

WaterBomb

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In other news, Chuck Noll passed away last night. I know this probably means way more to Steelers fans than other people, but he was still one of the great coaches in NFL History. RIP.
 

DM

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I feel the same way I did when Bill Walsh passed: we have lost an icon and a pioneer, and it's saddening to any football fan.
 
I am a Giants fan and don't like the Steelers but Chuck was a great icon to American football. The organization will never be the same without him.
 
Agreed, Noll basically established the Steelers as they are now, they were kinda bad before he came along. But he set the standard for them.
 
on a non chuck noll note what do you guys think of the bears? the offense looks great on paper (but it always does but something always doesn't add up). The defense may still need a season or two to build but i think we are set for a solid year and imo a spot in the playoffs
 
As long as that offensive line can keep Cutler upright, between Marshall/Jeffery/Forte they have the capability to put up 500 points this year. Add to that a relatively weak division (they should go 3-1 against the Lions/Vikings, at least), a relatively weak AFC East (again, likely 3-1) and eight other winnable games, I see absolutely no reason why they can't go 10-6 and make the playoffs at worst, potentially beating Green Bay both times and securing the division at 12 or so wins instead.

Cutler has always been underwhelming, but all the pieces are there for him to have huge success this season. Yeah, the same might have been true last season, but Cutler has never exactly struck me as a fast learner and the second year under a new scheme is usually far better than the first. Jeffery is outstanding, Marshall and Forte have always been great, so the rest really lies on Cutler's shoulders. If that offense is as good as it was last year, or better, there's no reason they can't make the playoffs.
 
See people always just talk about the offense where we are on paper incredible. My problem is how weak and old our defense is becoming even if we throw up massive points i feel the thing that will make or break us will be our defenses ability to support cutlers inconsistencies.
 
You don't "need" defense to have a successful regular season. Regardless of how bad the Bears defense could be next season, they have a relatively easy schedule and a powerful offense to counter it. It's highly unlikely the defense will be anywhere near as bad as the 2012 Saints level; and almost every other elite offense the past several years has made the playoffs.
 

xJownage

Even pendulums swing both ways
I am just going to say that the whole luck argument on the nfc champ was just flat wrong. a bouncing spheroid can go any direction when its out of control, and although you can ATTEMPT to react to it, that doesnt mean that where the ball goes is not luck based. unless we are talking about the saints super bowl onsides kick, it is luck based. There is a difference between preventing luck based situations and allowing them to be created, but regardless they are still luck. While this isint Mario kart, an out of control bouncing spheroid going one direction or the other can cost one team the game, and that is completely luck based. Sure you can try to prevent those situations, but that doesnt mean that the situations arent luck based, that just means that a bouncing spheroid doesnt lose the game for the team that prevented that situation by just outplaying the opponent. Stop this argument please, you are trying to say that something unpredictable isint luck based. just because one team gets lucky doesnt mean they will win, but that does mean that the situation itself was luck based.

on another note:

random predictions for no reason for the nfc east. will do more later.

Nfc East:
Redskins (or whatever dumb politicians who dont know what the hell they are talking about make them change their name to): The Redskins are one of the most dangerous teams in the nfl. The offensive power is off the charts, deshaun Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Alfred Morris, RGIII, and a great supporting cast make for a team that is scary good offensively. if their defense can get opponents off the field in a pinch i expect these guys to win the nfc East.

Eagles: I have said this over and over, it is that Darren Sproles is aged. People are acting like its no big deal, but djax for Sproles is not a good trade off for them. Nick foles is not peyton manning. he had one good season among an incredible offense. Is he a good QB? Sure. Will he have the same stat totals as last year, and will he be as effective? no, even if djax stayed. the offense will still be very good, dont get me wrong, but teams will find a way to beat them. A psuedo second year QB is never as effective as during his first year (see RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, etc.)


Jerry Jones i mean cowboys: Gone. Under .500 at least. this is a team with little cap room, awful spending habits, and an inability to play well together. and the negative factors with blaming tony romo for losing them a game every Time he throws a bad pass doesnt help. Maybe he shouldnt have had to try to win his team tha game after throwing 6 TDs against the broncos. nope he had to throw one pick. obviously that means romo sucks right? Why didnt he just not throw 6 TDs and for close to 500 yards, he wouldve taken less blame. Dallas has lost offensive parts and defensive parts and cant add shit during the offseason due to no cap room. bye cowboys relevance and sorry romo will be out of the nfl in 1 year due to bad fans and stupid media.

Giants: Didnt do all too much this season but all they needed to do was train eli manning not to throw more picks than they have posessions. They didnt have too many needs to fill and ended up quiet and efficient in the offseason. Will be decent, but its really hard to tell and thats only if manning doesnt throw 90 picks.
 

DM

Ce soir, on va danser.
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I am just going to say that the whole luck argument on the nfc champ was just flat wrong. a bouncing spheroid can go any direction when its out of control, and although you can ATTEMPT to react to it, that doesnt mean that where the ball goes is not luck based.
Kyle Williams wasn't fielding the ball. The ball ended up grazing his leg after it bounced. Therefore, Kyle Williams was standing too close to the bouncing ball, considering he had no plans to field it. That is plain and simple human error, not luck. Luck would be if Kyle Williams had been struck by lightning as he tried to field the ball and it bounced off his lifeless body into the arms of a Giants player.
 
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xJownage

Even pendulums swing both ways
Kyle Williams wasn't fielding the ball. The ball ended up grazing his leg after it bounced. Therefore, Kyle Williams was standing too close to the bouncing ball, considering he had no plans to field it. That is plain and simple human error, not luck. Luck would be if Kyle Williams had been struck by lightning as he tried to field the ball and it bounced off his lifeless body into the arms of a Giants player.
a bouncing spheroid's path is luck based. idgaf what you say. yes you can prevent the situation from being luck based, but which way the ball bounced has nothing but luck involved. I am sorry, but if a spherical ball bouncing the other way changes the outcome of the play it is luck based. Just because it is preventable doesnt mean the outcome has no luck involved as he put himself in a position that made the outcome luck based. I see your previous post. i agree with what he is saying, but luck based things are not truly random. anything you have no control over, such as which way the football bounces, is luck based. Luck means something thats outcome you have no control over. They have no control over which way the ball bounces, even though that way isint completely random. maybe we can say that the nanometers of difference possible on each football coupled with the punt couldve determined which way the ball bounced. are you going to still tell me this is not somewhat lucky?
 
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a bouncing spheroid's path is luck based. idgaf what you say. yes you can prevent the situation from being luck based, but which way the ball bounced has nothing but luck involved. I am sorry, but if a spherical ball bouncing the other way changes the outcome of the play it is luck based. Just because it is preventable doesnt mean the outcome has no luck involved as he put himself in a position that made the outcome luck based. I see your previous post. i agree with what he is saying, but luck based things are not truly random. anything you have no control over, such as which way the football bounces, is luck based. Luck means something thats outcome you have no control over. They have no control over which way the ball bounces, even though that way isint completely random. maybe we can say that the nanometers of difference possible on each football coupled with the punt couldve determined which way the ball bounced. are you going to still tell me this is not somewhat lucky? Your point is invalid and makes no sense and if i have to reiterate this to anybody else i will actually try to rip their head off.
If you're gonna field the ball, get to where it's going to come down.
If you're not going to field it, get away from it!

The returner can't tell the ball where to bounce, but he can certainly decide what the best option is for the situation at hand. And you said it yourself:
he put himself in a position
 

WaterBomb

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I love you Des. Let me know when you get up to the DC area and we'll hang out. I'll make sure to get an extra seat at the bar for your beard!
 
Well I'm bored so I took a glance at the Raiders schedule.
I think our win total should be somewhere around 6-9 if all goes well, but could easily drop to 3 or 4 if things go badly. Starting the season off 3-1 leading into a week 5 bye doesn't sound too crazy (Jets, vs Texans, @Patriots, vs Dolphins). Going into Foxborough could get messy though, as well as Seattle later in the season. I'm hoping we can split series with the Chargers and Chiefs, and even the Broncos by some miracle or if the Broncos lock up a playoff bye and rest their starters.

I'm interested in seeing how this cobbled-together team functions. Can McFadden and MJD make it through the season by taking workloads off each other? Will Latavius Murray explode onto the scene if/when one of them goes down? Will Matt Schaub be terrible or decent? Will Derek Carr end up being decent? The receiving corps really are solid if we had a quarterback. Will the O-line actually be intact this season?
There's plenty I want to know about the defense too but I've delivered enough ranty questions already.

Edit grammar
 
Is Travelle Wharton the third guy to retire from the Panthers O-Line or is this the same guy who was considering it during the summer after Gross left? If it's the third I can see the Panthers at the bottom of the division.
 
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