Please. If you were actually onto me, you would have used one of those kills onto me rather than using your billy/Ullar checks onto me. I'd like to stress that you would not have even been in a scenario where the odds are most certainly in your favor if it wasn't for the work that I did for you. I'd like to stress that trying to kill half your team when you had the leftovers of a village remnants trying to hunt you down. They were certainly able to piece together you. You very likely would have killed at least one more of your orcs. You were ignoring the bigger threat that had been staring at you in the face.
[19:08:44] <~Forte> about aska i mean
[19:09:08] <~Forte> it is obviously true we will be in a bad spot if we are wrong but
[19:09:17] <~Forte> i cant see it being anyone other than aska... or YOU SNYPE
[19:09:24] <billymills> the thing is
[19:09:26] <&Andrew> !!!
[19:09:30] <billymills> if they know im hitting aska tonight
[19:09:35] <billymills> snype won't kill me tonight
[19:09:39] <billymills> that'd be near suicide
[19:09:50] <&Andrew> and i'd say fk it yolo
[19:09:56] <~Forte> i mention snype only in terms of which remaining orcs besides ipl
[19:10:00] <~Forte> could pull this off
This is from our channel, you were there. It is not a difficult deduction. ipl proved that he wasn't the traitor, so out of the remaining living orcs, it was obvious to both billy and I that it had to be you or aska in terms of both timezone (because gollum accidentally revealed himself to be in EST) and mafia experience. If we successfully killed aska, we would have still called you out and more or less reach the same point we are at today.
Also, this endgame has proven how legitimate my fear of you outing my team was, which is a point you still haven't addressed. The only reason your life is at risk right now is because you made a mistake last night.
I do not think I am grossly exaggerating on billy's behavior when you have been the one to completely inform me. You were the one that brought up that he had a tantrum during one of the nights things didn't go his way and he just banned UncleSam from your channel for it. In PM to me, you said that his kill on Celever wasn't so much wrong as it was "hasty," so you didn't actually disagree with the conclusion of it and you chose to just agree with him. His reliance on echochamber, which I feel should be completely banned from most mafia games (a channel where a bot checks each player's idle times on IRC to determine when they last said something/who were having convos), is your reliance on echochamber if you took his orders pretty easily like that.
billy ragequit twice due to arguments with UncleSam. The first time was because UncleSam told him to "use evidence" after the night we killed Celever when there is was in fact none. You acknowledged this yourself. The second time was because of this, on the night he used his orc chief veto iirc:
[21:55:49] <UncleSam> mills ragequit
[21:55:53] <Forte> did he
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:51] <billymills> when the hell does the vote happen
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:51] <billymills> [18:38:34] <billymills> [19:35:44] <UncleSam> end of this night
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:51] <billymills> [18:37:40] <UncleSam> election happens next night
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:51] <UncleSam> end of this night if you remove during the day
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:52] <UncleSam> rofl
[21:56:01] <UncleSam> [23:52] <UncleSam> its as if the orc chieftain dies
[21:56:01] <Forte> he logged off right around when you came on
[21:56:05] <UncleSam> [23:52] <UncleSam> the moment you use the ability
[21:56:07] <UncleSam> [23:52] <billymills> ...
[21:56:09] <UncleSam> [23:52] <billymills> you fucking said
[21:56:11] <UncleSam> [23:52] <billymills> this night
[21:56:13] <UncleSam> [23:52] <billymills> in the previous convo
[21:56:15] <UncleSam> [23:52] <billymills> retard
[21:56:17] <UncleSam> [23:52] * billymills has quit (Quit: )
As for Celever it was hasty because billy based his decision on the fact that he was talking to LN (even though we both knew at the time that LN was gathering up Soldiers of Gondor due to his lynchpin theory). He was worried that LW and LN would not buy his claim of being hooked before using the all gondor BG, so he wanted to use his extra kill in case he would be lynched next. Of course, this did not happen, but to be fair against Celever, his other actions made him seem suspicious (avoiding the orc channel repeatedly, trying to contact Eagle4). Lastly, it is billy's role and his decision ultimately on how that kill is used. billy submitted the action and logged off before I came on to really have a discussion about it, but UncleSam gave me the option to change it. It didn't feel right for me to change it though because I didn't have a chance to discuss my disagreement with him. You can argue that I am being weak-willed here, but I'd rather avoid potential conflict with my own team over it.
This was in reference to the orc vote. Yes, billy's ragequits were inconvenient, but there were times where I was pretty mad about some of the decisions UncleSam has made regarding this game, and even argued with him about it. However, I am a very level headed person so I would never ragequit over something this. To claim that he is the only one having a tantrum here is also an example of the pot calling the kettle black since that is more or less your supposed reason for stabbing us.
I can say I put more time into this game than you as you said earlier Billy was your undisputed leader. You didn't do everything by yourself. I was doing 95% of the work since Day 3. You have been doing it since the night before I killed Billy. You argue you've put in substantial time, but I've put in more time.
Again, this is still a moot point because you are wolf. At best you have 1 partner to count on. This is always the case, so it doesn't make your circumstances special.
One, I contend that you would have nowhere near been in a winning situation had I not intervened because you would still be busy killing the rest of your faction trying to find me. You would perpetually be suspecting me, but never actually do anything about it. I think it is completely ridiculous for you to automatically assume that you have the right to win when the path you were going to take would have ended up in a much rougher path than the alternative I gave. You are so much more pathetic for thinking you were actually in a position to win had I not done anything. Granted, with an inactive village like this one, you may have almost been able to get away with almost anything, but what I did guaranteed you a path to win.
Good lord dude. The same can be said about you. Collaboration works both ways. We were actually the ones who made the initiative to contact you using B_T first, and we worked together because if we didn't we would both certainly lose. It is a 50/50 collaboration. No side deserves more credit than the other in this situation. von was too aggressive about lynching orcs, yet claimed to Ullar. His death has his fault. You also killed jumpluff/Yeti out of paranoia while knowing that village was in a commanding position. Your fault. Billy hastily killed Celever. Our fault. The village was winning, so we sent our outed teammate to initiate our collaboration. Everything afterwards was a mutual agreement between two parties.
Again, I am seriously annoyed with trying to respond to you, but here is what I would do tonight. Not hook anyone on the mafia tonight. I am telling you for certain that when I asked UncleSam what any other possible owner of the ring would get, they would get the same thing I do, but with one extra kill. The BPV does not disappear once the kills are used. I copypasted the flavor here earlier. The ring can be given to anyone, but not collected by anyone other than me/macle.
Suppose I am lynched
1/3/5 becomes 3/5.
Mafia use both kills on you.
3/3. One of these mafia will have the ring protection and another will have orc protection. There is a 33% chance that you succeed with this.
3/3. You lynch one of the ones that is protected. You lose the game. 66% chance.
2/3. You succeed! 33% chance.
2/2. 50/50 on whether or not you hit the one that has the ring protection.
[
2/2. You hit ring protection. Mafia uses kill #3 on villager and makes this 2-1, tying vote for them (gondor considered) and winning the game. 33% * 50%
1/2. You win by lasting long enough to stall out protection. 33% * 50%
This is preliminary math, but there is a 5/6 chance mafia wins. 1/6 chance you win.
First of all, posting that flavor doesn't prove anything since (1) compared to the log I posted, it is easy to fake, and (2) you still haven't explained your behavior in the log I posted, nor questioned its authenticity. I said that this would be an RNG, and you said it yourself that lynching you would make the most sense for the village. You are also wrong about the fact that we can pass the ring to someone else, meaning that it would be a 1/3 chance, not 1/6. The ring goes to orc chieftain, and to change orc chieftain, the current one must be killed first, ie the ring will lose its power to double kill anyway. Yes, I asked UncleSam about this since it wasn't mentioned in our results PM after attempting to kill you.
Suppose mafia is lynched and I permanently hook macle as he can still hook me.
1/3/5 becomes 1/2/5.
Decision is in my hands but very unfavorable.
Kill villager. Mafia could kill villager. 50% * 50%
1/3/3
Kill villager. . Mafia could kill me. 50% * 50% Same scenario as the above, BUT they have their double kill rather than being to spend it early, making odds of village victory nonexistent. 1/4 loss
Your numbers are off. It should be 4/2 (village/mafia) if we killed you and you killed village since they would lynch someone besides macle today in your posed scenario.
I am a bit confused here. All they need to do is lynch macle and we lose our double kill, making it a village win. That's why I said earlier that killing you would be suicidal for us.
Kill mafia and it is successful. Mafia could kill villager. 50% *50% * 66% 1/6
1/2/4
Village lynches me: 2/4 with double kill available. Comes down to 50/50 on whether or not they hit the ring's LPV. Better odds than you currently have. 1/6 * 1/2 loss = 1/12. 1/6 * 1/2 * 1/2 win. 1/24 win.
Village lynches mafia and is not successful. I become kingmaker. 50/50. Kill mafia, village wins. Kill village, mafia wins. Idle. village wins. 1/6 * 1/2. 1/12 win.
Village lynches mafia and is successful. Game goes to me. 1/2/4 becomes 1/2/1 or 1/2/2, which is in mafia favor. None of these odds are wins for you. 1/6 * 1/2. 1/12 loss.
Again, your numbers are off here, it would be 4/2/1 if macle is lynched today or 4/1/1 if he isn't. That means for our double kill to be available, it would have to be 4/1, which is obviously a huge majority for the village. Hence, there is no reasonable path for either us except at least one of us killing a villager.
Kill mafia and hit the ring. This is the interesting part where you win. Regardless of what happens, they can only send 1 kill to perform on you each night and you know who everyone is. So starting with the lynch on me and then doing one-for-one trades. You just win out of numbers. Lynch me tomorrow, then lynch the mafia. 50% * 50%. Doesn't matter who mafia kill. You win. 1/4 chance you win tonight by lynching a mafia.
I am stopping calculations here as just that one scenario is enough and I am not going to consider scenarios where I don't hook macle as from my perspective, it would be too easy to give the mafia the rest of this game. this 1/4 chance that happens should you lynch a mafia tonight is much higher than 1/6,
contrary to what some Americans understand about fractions
Not sure if I am at the right place in your analysis, but if you mean they lynch someone besides macle today, and then you kill + hook macle, then it would be 5/2 if we kill you, or 4/2/1 if we kill a villager. It is easy to see that this would be just you throwing the game to the village either way.
The only case to worry about would be me not hooking macle and getting 3 village deaths happen in one night. It did not happen the first time like I said it would, nor do I think it will happen the 2nd as the mafia have intended to backstab me, like they did already earlier. I would probably be more likely to kill one of them than for this possibliity to actually occur.
Bass does nothing to disprove this fact. My vote still stands.
Sorry, but I just did. Since this is very tl;dr, allow me to summarize the flaws in Snype's analysis:
- He is wrong about the ring being passable. Even if that were correct, it is a moot point since he would just hook macle, preventing him from passing it. macle definitely has it right now.
- His numbers are off by 1 (in the scenario where you guys dont lynch macle), and if macle is lynched, he will survive but lose the double kill. As a result, we both have to kill villagers the next night, more or less.
What this all comes down to is who you think is telling the truth about the ring as well as whether you actually believe Snype is content to throw the game to you. I think the evidence I have already posted stands on its own. If you can see why RNG is the best choice for both of us, I suggest that you lynch Snype.