Big Lord of the Rings Mafia - Game Over! Forces of Sauron Win!

[LonelyNess]

The way I see it, Bass, is: If Snype is lying and you don't actually keep the protection post kill use, then keeping Snype alive puts us in some kind of X% win scenario....

If YOU'RE lying, however, we lose 100% of the time (assuming we lynch Snype)

That's why it is better to trust Snype than it is to trust you.

 

[Andy Snype]

Steven Snype,

We already are aware of the fact that US told you about the orc chieftain being the one to get the ring if we tried to kill you. I won't dispute that. What I am disputing is that he also told you what the ring does. Given that it gave you three kills, it is easy to guess that it also gave us one more kill. The fact that you also claimed that it is passable leads to me to believe that UncleSam couldn't have possibly told you. I mean, he didn't tell us what it did for you when you got it, if we did I wouldn't have been so pissed off about you surviving our kill earlier.

I was telling the truth about killing the village at the time. My plan was to give the ring to you once I had exhausted all the kills I could get from the ring. Log I had on IRC that I saved to host convo:

<Andrew> yo when i'm done with the ring can i give it away?
<UncleSam> uhh
<UncleSam> not sure why youd want to but yes
<Andrew> ok
<Andrew> thanks
<UncleSam> you can give the ring away at any time
<UncleSam> idk why youd help someone else though X_X

pasting this here so you fucking remember this

 

[Bass]

[18:09:43] <~Forte> UncleSam
[18:09:47] <~Forte> is that really true
[18:09:50] <~Forte> that log with snype
[18:09:56] <~Forte> that he just posted
[18:10:08] <~Forte> you have backtracked on several things this game
[18:10:14] <~Forte> so even though you told me that we couldnt pass it
[18:10:17] <~Forte> im worried
[18:10:21] <~Forte> that you actually said he could
[18:10:28] <&UncleSam> you cant pass it

I asked him just now. Look at the timestamps.

The way I see it, Bass, is: If Snype is lying and you don't actually keep the protection post kill use, then keeping Snype alive puts us in some kind of X% win scenario....

If YOU'RE lying, however, we lose 100% of the time (assuming we lynch Snype)

That's why it is better to trust Snype than it is to trust you.

Please explain how it is 100%? Even Snype argued that it was not 100%.

 

[Pidge]

It doesn't make sense that it can be passed since didn't he say only Gollum or the chieftan can hold it?

 

[Andy Snype]

[18:09:43] <~Forte> UncleSam
[18:09:47] <~Forte> is that really true
[18:09:50] <~Forte> that log with snype
[18:09:56] <~Forte> that he just posted
[18:10:08] <~Forte> you have backtracked on several things this game
[18:10:14] <~Forte> so even though you told me that we couldnt pass it
[18:10:17] <~Forte> im worried
[18:10:21] <~Forte> that you actually said he could
[18:10:28] <&UncleSam> you cant pass it

I asked him just now. Look at the timestamps.

oh yeah. look at the easily fakeable timestamps. Pidge Gollum or the orc chieftain can retrieve it, but they can pass it to anyone they desire.

 

[LonelyNess]

Day 14 1/3/5 - Right Now
Night 15 3/5 - Snype Lynched Going into night
Day 15 3/3 - Ring Kill / Orc Kill used
Night 16 2/3 - Mafia LynchedGoing into night
Day 16 2/2 - Orc Kill used
Night 17 2/2 - Orc Protection on one guy, macle protects himself (if you're lying) Going into night
Day 17 2/2 - Orc Kill idled
Night 18 1/2 - Someone lynched
Day 18 1/1 - Orc Kill used
Night 19 1/1 - Orc Protection
Day 19 1/0 - Orc Kill used

100% loss scenario, if you are lying about macle's protection.

 

[Bass]

Day 14 1/3/5 - Right Now
Night 15 3/5 - Snype Lynched Going into night
Day 15 3/3 - Ring Kill / Orc Kill used
Night 16 2/3 - Mafia LynchedGoing into night
Day 16 2/2 - Orc Kill used
Night 17 2/2 - Orc Protection on one guy, macle protects himself (if you're lying) Going into night
Day 17 2/2 - Orc Kill idled
Night 18 1/2 - Someone lynched
Day 18 1/1 - Orc Kill used
Night 19 1/1 - Orc Protection
Day 19 1/0 - Orc Kill used

100% loss scenario, if you are lying about macle's protection.

[18:28:20] <~Forte> if there is one orc alive
[18:28:22] <~Forte> can we orc protect
[18:28:25] <&UncleSam> yes

I didn't know that we could orc protect with one orc alive, and I am guessing Snype didn't either. Otherwise it is 33%. Fair enough. Lynching me is a bit more understandable.

However, I still think you should evaluate the risk vs. reward. If I am not lying, then it is actually a 50% chance, which will most certainly be far better than anything you can hope for if you don't lynch Snype, and additionally it will end the game much quicker. I still think Exhibit A (the log I posted earlier) should be sufficient evidence to show that I am very likely telling the truth, and that Snype's tactics should suggest that he is desperate. Up to you.

 

[LonelyNess]

Whether or not I believe you is irrelevant, tbh... I am merely trying to avoid a 100% loss scenario. I'd rather have <33% chance to win than the potential for a 0% chance.

 

[Eashy]

Lynch Bass

 

[Bass]

What I am insisting is that it isn't simply less than 33%... It is probably close to 0.

Say you lynch me.

It is 5/2/1.

Snype kills village, I kill village.

3/2/1 (village/mafia/wolf)

You lynch Snype and it is 3/2, but then we have ring double kill and reduce it to 1/2. That is our win.

You have no lynch if we orc protect, ie we use it on Upside. So you lynch macle to remove the ring.

3/2/1.

Now suppose we kill 2 villagers again, making it 1/2/1. Village is kingmaker.

If we kill snype, and he kills a villager, it is 2/1. We lose, so we obv won't do this.

If Snype kills one of us and we kill a villager, it is 2/1/1. Snype is kingmaker.

The point here is that the last scenario is impossible because Snype and I control the night kills, and he will avoid a scenario in which he is kingmaker. This pretty much means the 1/2/1 scenario is inevitable.

Knowing that your chance of winning if Snype is kept alive is essentially 0, are you really sure that risk is worth it?

 

[Bass]

Nachos TheSwagger LonelyNess please look!

 

[Bass]

PS, the point I was trying to get across was that the only way village can win if you don't lynch snype is if he throws the game. If not it will definitely converge to 1/2/1, ie "close to" 0%.

 

[Mithril]

Well, I was at work all day and had no time to look at these posts, but for what its worth I would have voted Bass. My apologies for forcing a sub though.

 

[LonelyNess]

The 1/2/1 scenario is not unwinnable for village

If we vote no lynch, that puts it at 1/2/1 during the night

Presumably snype will hook one mafia, kill the other leaving it at 1/1/1 during the day

We vote no lynch again, putting it at 1/1/1 during hte night

Then fuck if I know what happens, because no one can kill anyone without instantly dying to the village so I guess it's a stalemate unless one of the people wants to gift the village a win.

 

[Bass]

Are you people even reading my posts? If you don't read any of them, please read this, this, which are substantial pieces of evidence that suggest Snype is lying, and this which explains why you are practically guaranteed to be fucked if you don't lynch Snype. If there was even a 50% chance I was lying, you are still more likely going to win if you lynch Snype.

 

[Bass]

LonelyNess

If this thread hasn't made it obvious, Snype and I have wills of steel and probably want the win the most. I am sure that the village will throw it if there is a stalemate.

I EDITED THIS TO FIX ANOTHER TYPO: STEAL -> STEEL

 

[LonelyNess]

Well, hmm I guess that the 1/1/1 scenario is actually pro snype going into the night because of the hook cause he can hook orcs, kill villager, and then beat mafia during day time or at night...

I see no reason why Snype would ever cause himself to be king maker and make it 1/1/2

So.... yeah, actually... I don't see a way for village to win killing Bass... it'll just be village kingmaker.

Which is probably what it is anyway, cause I don't see why the ring protection would be tied to the kill, so whatever.

Nevermind, guys. We have 0% chance to win killing Bass. We have a non-zero chance to win if bass is telling the truth about the ring protection.

My guess is that we have a 0% chance to win regardless, so might as well see if we are right.

Unvote
Vote Steven Snype

 

[Bass]

Or better yet: Do you really want to stall this game in a stalemate? Lynching Snype is the only way to prevent a stalemate, since basically you confirmed that there is a 100% chance of a stalemate if we don't. Only thing you can hope for then is for UncleSam to call the game a three way tie, which I guess everyone would be happy about, but in that case might as well call it that now if we don't lynch Snype.

 

[Bass]

Thank you for being sensible LN!

 

[LonelyNess]

TheSwagger Nachos please change your vote
Pidge

 

[Pidge]

There is a slight workaround to this. For example, let's say its 1/1/2 and it's night. The village creates an ultimatum that says 'if you kill one of us, we will choose the other to be the winner'. If someone dies, use the flavor of the death to determine the winner. If nobody dies, lynch the mafia. If he is protected, create the same ultimatum. After the mafia is lynched, the wolf can kill one of the villagers, but the remaining Gondor can lynch the wolf the next day.

 

[Pidge]

Though it comes down to whether the mafia and wolf really hate each other more than the village.

 

[Bass]

Again this is tantamount to counting on either Snype or I to throw it. Trust me, we will not. We both want to win at all costs. Only difference is Snype has to count on a kingmaker or stalemate to win and drag the game out, but we don't.

 

[Pidge]

Upon further review, the situation puts Snype indeed on the kingmaker position, since he must constantly hook the mafia, who could kill a villager when the mafia's protection is ready. If he doesn't hook, he risks the mafia running away with a victory. If he does hook, he still loses, but the village wins. The thing is, it will not stall out forever. The situation is guaranteed to end in 1-3 cycles.

 

[UncleSam]

For the record Bass had majority on him for a time, but it is typical to allow grace periods of several hours and as such I am not calling this day just yet. Deadline is in two hours as of this post.