Big Lord of the Rings Mafia - Game Over! Forces of Sauron Win!

[Bass]

Pidge We aren't going to do anything but kill villagers. I already explained the reasoning why several posts ago. Snype will hook macle 100% until he loses the ring. We will also send someone besides macle to do the kill, so there is no way he will stop our kill with a hook as long as this is the case. The 1/2/1 scenario with village as kingmaker (or stalemate) still happens.

Or am I misinterpreting what you said?

 

[UncleSam]

PokeguyNXB indicate to me that you are paying attention or I will have to sub you as well.

 

[Pidge]

In the 1/2/1 scenario, Snype would constantly hook the mafia, so the mafia never gets a kill off. If Snype breaks the village's ultimatum of another kill happening on the village and forcing a village kingmaker, they would lynch Snype for doing so. If Snype keeps constantly hooking and doesn't kill a villager, the village lynch the mafia until both the ring is gone and the mafia isn't under protection. Then the village wins after Snype kill 1 villager in the night.

 

[Bass]

In the 1/2/1 scenario, Snype would constantly hook the mafia, so the mafia never gets a kill off. If Snype breaks the village's ultimatum of another kill happening on the village and forcing a village kingmaker, they would lynch Snype for doing so. If Snype keeps constantly hooking and doesn't kill a villager, the village lynch the mafia until both the ring is gone and the mafia isn't under protection. Then the village wins after Snype kill 1 villager in the night.

That isn't the point... you are still the kingmaker in that situation if we both just idle on that night.

 

[Pidge]

Then we lynch the mafia and the mafia either dies and we win, or the mafia lives from the ring. If that happens, we keep the same ultimatum until we actually kill the mafia while not under protection.

 

[Bass]

Pidge
Lynching macle instead of me won't make a difference. It will remove our extra kill from the ring, but we will still have a night kill nonetheless.

So 5/3/1 if we lynch macle

3/3/1 because we still need to kill 2 villagers

3/2/1 if you guess orc protect right.

And then we are the same situation as we would be in if you lynched me instead of macle. How do you still not understand that?

 

[Pidge]

I don't understand your response. I'm talking about a situation where Snype can be made a soft kingmaker if it comes down to 2/1/1. That is only possible by lynching a non Snype target. This can happen whether we lynch macle or you.

 

[Bass]

Please clarify:

Do you mean 2 village or 2 mafia?

Either way, of course it is only possible if you don't lynch Snype. If you do lynch him, then there will not be a stalemate/kingmaker, which is my fucking point.

 

[Pidge]

2 village. And I know there would be a kingmaker, but that actually favors us if Snype truly despises the mafia more than the village.

 

[Bass]

And if you meant 2 mafia, 1 village, I already explained countless times why that would still make you guys kingmaker.

 

[Bass]

2 village. And I know there would be a kingmaker, but that actually favors us if Snype truly despises the mafia more than the village.

How does it get to 2 village, 1 mafia, 1 wolf? Snype and I must both kill 2 villagers next night making it 3/2/1, and we have guaranteed lynch protection. So you hit macle to make it 3/2/1 sans the ring. If we both kill villagers, 1/2/1 (1 village, 2 mafia, 1 wolf) is unavoidable.

 

[Bass]

Anyway, to put it more simply, village has no control over the night kills so we are practically guaranteed to force it to 1/2/1.

 

[Bass]

Pidge

You still seem indecisive. I guess the key point here is whether you believe Snype will kill a mafia, village, or idle. I have already explained why he must kill a villager dozens of times, but I guess I'll do it again.

First of all, we will 100% kill a villager due to our numbers. If Snype kills one of us, then it is

4/1/1.

Village wins by lynching Snype.

If Snype idles or kills macle, it is 4/2/1. Village doesn't have a 100% win in this scenario I think (I would have to double check) but is still likely favorite if they lynch Snype.

The point is, Snype will lose anyway in both scenarios, so he has no reason not to kill a villager, thereby bringing the game to 1/2/1.

 

[Da Letter El]

Vote Count

Steven Snype (4): Bass, macle, pidge, Upside, LonelyNess
Bass (3): Steven Snype, LonelyNess, Nachos, TheSwagger

Currently not voting: Pidge, PokeguyNXB

 

[Andy Snype]

What I am insisting is that it isn't simply less than 33%... It is probably close to 0.

Say you lynch me.

It is 5/2/1.

Snype kills village, I kill village.

You forget the part where I get to play another game of chicken with you and make you use both your kills. If you don't do so, I will have no issue with how the lynch will go tomorrow. I will not be using my kill tonight if a mafia is lynched. This is win-win for both of us village. I am not letting you have that extra kill for free.

3/2/1 if they follow through. Village lynches me off. BPV is still there on macle and orc protect will be too, so I am the one that is the most reliable as I have no form of protection. The mafia could choose to idle their protection, so 50/50. Let's say you lynch me here.

50% I am lynched.

Let's roll with that

2/3. Say that the mafia idled the protect and used it, so it doesn't matter who you lynch, the lynch will fail. They kill someone tonight.

2/2. You lynch one.

1/2. They kill one.

1/1. Orc Protect.

1/1. No kill.

1/1. Gondor wins.

If a mafia is lynched tomorrow successfully, it becomes 3/1/1. Both mafia and I will kill a villager and it becomes the 1/1/1 scenario. Macle could try to kill me but it becomes 0/1/2 and village wins. 1/1/1 goes in my favor.

If a mafia is lynched but fails because of orc protection, game is still 1/2/3. I blow macle's BPV, make this an easy lynch for you guys tomorrow and you win.

Of course, this all depends on how the game of chicken goes.

 

[UncleSam]

ginganinja has subbed in for PokeguyNXB

 

[ginganinja]

Lynch Snype

 

[Bass]

You forget the part where I get to play another game of chicken with you and make you use both your kills. If you don't do so, I will have no issue with how the lynch will go tomorrow. I will not be using my kill tonight if a mafia is lynched. This is win-win for both of us village. I am not letting you have that extra kill for free.

3/2/1 if they follow through. Village lynches me off. BPV is still there on macle and orc protect will be too, so I am the one that is the most reliable as I have no form of protection. The mafia could choose to idle their protection, so 50/50. Let's say you lynch me here.

50% I am lynched.

Let's roll with that

2/3. Say that the mafia idled the protect and used it, so it doesn't matter who you lynch, the lynch will fail. They kill someone tonight.

2/2. You lynch one.

1/2. They kill one.

1/1. Orc Protect.

1/1. No kill.

1/1. Gondor wins.

If a mafia is lynched tomorrow successfully, it becomes 3/1/1. Both mafia and I will kill a villager and it becomes the 1/1/1 scenario. Macle could try to kill me but it becomes 0/1/2 and village wins. 1/1/1 goes in my favor.

If a mafia is lynched but fails because of orc protection, game is still 1/2/3. I blow macle's BPV, make this an easy lynch for you guys tomorrow and you win.

Of course, this all depends on how the game of chicken goes.

Don't be ridiculous, playing a game of chicken puts us both at needless risk. We will both kill villagers.

 

[Andy Snype]

Don't be ridiculous, playing a game of chicken puts us both at needless risk. We will both kill villagers.

It doesn't put me at any more needless risk because village cannot really win while you have those kills up and as long as they have the potential to be used against me, it puts me at less risk if you use them on villagers first.

 

[Bass]

Basically what I am saying is that Snype has no logical reason to play chicken when he has an easy 100% chance of village kingmaker if he survives today's lynch. He is only posing that scenario to fool you villagers into thinking otherwise.

 

[Andy Snype]

Basically what I am saying is that Snype has no logical reason to play chicken when he has an easy 100% chance of village kingmaker if he survives today's lynch. He is only posing that scenario to fool you villagers into thinking otherwise.

No I'm not posing it. When it's the only scenario that is actually relevant and is the worst-case scenario that LonelyNess feared about.

 

[Bass]

No I'm not posing it. When it's the only scenario that is actually relevant and is the worst-case scenario that LonelyNess feared about.

So are you seriously telling me that if you win this lynch, you will still play chicken with me even though it will be in both our interests to reach kingmaker and each kill 1 villager?

I don't think so. I see this as a last resort because most of the villagers have realized that this scenario is literally unavoidable if you don't get lynched now. Village would still lose if I lied, but there is no proof that I am, not to mention I posted some evidence that suggest the contrary. The choice village has is play this out and 100% lose, or have a 50% chance of winning if I am not lying. Lynching you is the clear choice.

 

[Pidge]

With ginganinja's vote, my vote no longer makes a difference, unless one of the villagers changes their vote because of this:

Snype, would you rather

• lose right now and risk the mafia winning

• or do exactly as requested by me, and if you do otherwise we choose the mafia to win in any kingmaker situation you end up creating

Unfortunately you cannot win in either situation. If we lynch Bass, you would have to hook macle and kill Upside. If anything else happens, I will choose mafia to win in any kingmaker situation created.

 

[Andy Snype]

i would rather let you guys win atm

 

[Bass]

Your vote makes a difference Pidge. I am fairly sure all five remaining villagers are Gondor, and you only need 3 out of 5 to vote for one person to make it double. Currently, 2 villagers voted for each of us so your vote is the deciding one if you use it. For the record, TheSwagger is the only one we are not 100% sure about but given the numbers (and the fact that we were told by the host to claim Gondor:Rohan in a 2:1 ratio), he is almost certainly a Soldier of Gondor. Unfortunately he isn't on so he can't comment.

I am not sure why you would bother asking Snype that question. You are basically asking him to throw the game. He can always say he will throw it to trick you into not lynching him (and we again force 1/2/1 kingmaker).