PICKS!!!
Oklahoma over Baylor, 31-28
This is a revenge game for Oklahoma, and everybody remembers the whipping Baylor put on them last year. At home, in front of a fired up crowd, I really think there is little chance Baylor wins. Score says its close, but to me, it being close means Baylor has no chance. Sooners are hot, Baylor may be distracted after the loss to WVU, and the Baylor offense doesn't have enough weapons to overpower Oklahoma in the matchups. The Baylor offense won't have an easy time, and Baylor's defense is only good.
Michigan State over Ohio State, 31-17
Ohio State has played well offensively in recent weeks, but they have yet to face a good defense. Michigan State has one of the best in the country, and in the game of the year for the big 10 on national TV their offense will not be able to muster the sudden ability to move the ball against an elite defense. Michigan State's offense is great at ball control and will run the clock for virtually the entire game, not just running the ball but managing the passing game as well. There are only good things to say about Michigan State in this game, the only way Ohio State wins is if they come out and somehow can control the clock.
LSU over Alabama, 20-17
UPSET SPECIAL!!! LSU set a perfect trap against ole miss, and I think they can easily do the same against Alabama. When you diagnose how the LSU defense so completely shut down the Ole Miss offense, you realize they brought quick inside pressure from the linebackers and it completely shut down the Ole Miss running game, forcing Bo Wallace to make plays with his arm only. Ole Miss and Alabama have extremely similar running game concepts; and I trust that Les Miles will be able to iron out the differences in the two running games and come up with a concept that shuts down Alabama the same way they did Ole Miss. This will force Blake Sims to make plays with his arm and his arm only, which is exactly how MSU will beat OSU, and exactly how LSU beat Ole Miss. Blake Sims will have to grow up if Bama will win this game, because he has to make the plays. Will he do that? I don't think a sudden maturity change is likely.
Auburn over Texas A&M, 38-17
A&M with Hill struggled because half of the time they dropped his passes and their defense is mediocre. Without Hill, what do you think is going to happen?
Kansas State over TCU, 28-27
The Bill Snyder Formula. Here is what Snyder has forced KState teams to do over the years, and all the good teams are all of these qualities:
1. Play Sound Defense
2. Don't commit penalties
3. Don't commit turnovers
4. Run the ball, manage the clock.
The more and better KState teams adhere to this, the better teams they have been historically. This KState team is no different. You remember when their defense was shutting down Auburn on a thursday night earlier this season? They don't commit penalties often (they had one run in, again against auburn), they don't turn the ball over (again, except against auburn), and they manage the clock consistently. I don't think they will completely shut down TCU's explosive offense, I DO think that they will keep TCU's offense in front of them enough to make several stops and force a couple of turnovers. They won't make mistakes, and will play their butts off. This is what Bill Snyder teams do. If you think that playing soundly won't be enough to beat TCU, just look at the Auburn game. A pass off their star recievers hands in the end zone that is intercepted, a dropped interception, a pair of other uncharacteristic turnovers that led to auburn points...these aren't things that just happen together because a team is bad, it just wasn't their night against auburn. The reality is, however, that they outplayed auburn. They should have beaten them, but made uncharacteristic mistakes that cost them the game. There is nothing to suggest that they would let that happen again, and if you suggest TCU will outplay KSU you are suggesting that TCU is a significantly better team than Auburn, which to me is absolutely silly. Bill Snyder's defense will shut down the big plays, and without those, TCU's offense won't be putting up nearly the point total. They will get some scores, but it just won't be enough.
Utah Over Oregon, 41-35
Oregon has a history of losing after beating Stanford, having "letdowns" on both sides of the ball, but that is not at all what this is about. This is the same sort of trap game that made ole miss succumb to LSU in death valley. Utah has a great offense, but there isin't much you can use to figure them out, as they have not played a lot of great games. They always seem to just play, and they go out there and dominate, but there hasn't been much strategy in their offense due to them not having to use it. They have plenty of things up their sleeve, but they have not opened up the playbook all year, and are due to pull out all the stops against a powerful oregon team. A win here would be amazing for Utah in terms of publicity, and they will do everything in their power to make it happen. Oregon's offense may get suprised, Utah's defense is FAST. Reminiscent of recent FSU defenses in regards to their speed, they close on everything in the same way the seahawks do in the NFL. The Utes will keep things in front of them, and then they will swarm like hawks. This upset relies on Oregon's offense getting a slight suprise by the Utes speed, because otherwise Utah may not be able to win a shootout against a mostly superior team. The Utes should outmaneuver the Ducks early on, and their fast defense will be enough to hold off the Oregon offense. Expect some trick plays and different looks from what the Utes have shown so far this season.
Notre Dame over Arizona State, 35-31
Notre dame plays up to their superior opponents and down to their inferior ones, plain and simple. They are a very good team that just doesn't always play 100%. In a really big game, Notre Dame will come through imo, they are thoroughly a great team due to Everett Golson and will go as far as he takes them in terms of offense. His dual threat ability makes him a great QB, and his arm talent is not lacking at all.