The Everything Minor League (NCAA) Football Thread : 2014-2015

The committee is confusing ._.

They said conference championships and head-to-heads are paramount. Baylor and TCU can easily finish 11-1, but because of h2h, Baylor would win the Big XII, but TCU goes into the playoffs? I know TCU is more impressive, but if you're gonna lay down some criteria, stick to it please...

I wouldn't worry about Bama too much. They control their own destiny, and the remaining games are all at home.
 

Mr.E

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IIRC Big 12 is poised to stand that TCU/Baylor will be co-champs, since there's no conference championship game, even if one beat the other head-to-head. TCU just looks more impressive and it's not close enough to put Baylor over them based on H2H: Baylor lost to WVU, TCU just crushed K-State and beat a decent Minnesota team OOC.

Alabama just won in one of the toughest stadiums in the country and their one loss was by 6 to a great Mississippi team while Oregon was shut down at home to Arizona. Yet Oregon is #2 and Alabama is 5. Top 4 right now should be Mississippi State, Fla. St. (by default, I still don't think they're great), Alabama, Oregon. TCU should be a close fifth.
Yeah well who the fuck has Miss State beaten? They might have the worst out-of-conference schedule in the history of D1 sports. I mean, we can put them at 5 and Bama at 1 instead if you want. Hell, MSU probably shouldn't even be top five.
 
Marshall gets no love. I don't think they should be in the top 4 or anything, but going undefeated this long is hard to do no matter who you play. I'd easily replace minnesota with them. They deserve to at least be ranked #25 imo.
 
Marshall gets no love. I don't think they should be in the top 4 or anything, but going undefeated this long is hard to do no matter who you play. I'd easily replace minnesota with them. They deserve to at least be ranked #25 imo.
I completely agree. I'd even say that Rakeem Cato is a Heisman dark horse. The guy has had a terrific season.
 
It doesn't help when the record of all the teams you've played so far is a combined 29-51.

Is the committee actually required to include a team from the Group of 5? If so, I would think they'd take Boise State over Marshall assuming the Broncos win out.
 
It doesn't help when the record of all the teams you've played so far is a combined 29-51.

Is the committee actually required to include a team from the Group of 5? If so, I would think they'd take Boise State over Marshall assuming the Broncos win out.
I don't think that'd be the case, and it shouldn't be. Sure, Marshall's schedule hasn't been the greatest. But Marshall has absolutely decimated every single one of their opponents. Boise State's two losses might be considered "good" losses, but it'd be an injustice to put them over Marshall.
 
Well that was an interesting Saturday. #1 falls to #5, flordia st proves yet again that they have to depend on winston to have a chance against ANYONE, and #6 falls. TCU also had a scare against Kansas of all teams, so now we get to have a good look at how the committee treats bad wins. No doubt bama moves into the top 4, but now the question is how far Miss st falls. Auburn loses yet again to a georgia team that had gurley back, but georgia ends up losing todd to a leg injury in the 4th quarter. Georgia just can't get a break when it comes to injurys eh? Oh and some guy from wisconsin apparently broke some rushing record, but nobody really talked about that ;). With missouri now in place to clinch the SEC east, georgia's only hope is for that weird 3rd sec tiger team to lose again. Marshall continues to dominate, but nobody seems to care. So i ask you this, WILL FSU EVER JUST BLOW SOMEONE OUT INSTEAD OF WAITING UNTIL THE 4th QUARTER TO ACTUALLY START PLAYING?! And so the wait for tuesday begins.
 
In other news: Will Muschamp is DONE.

I'm really curious to see who Florida pursues if Dan Mullen continues to stay at CLANGA state (p.s. please not Kirby Smart)
 

DetroitLolcat

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Ughhhhh I hate FSU so much. They don't just have a 12th man, they have a 13th man (ACC Head of Officiating Doug Rhoads) and a 14th man (Tallahassee Police Chief Michael DeLeo). Did anyone watch all of the missed holds by FSU's offense and the straight missed fumble call on their last drive. Plus you got sportswriters gargling them by saying "they win close it means they know how to win" and "they're just clutch". Spoilers: beating unranked and overrated teams by 1 does not make you "clutch", it means you're marginally better than them. This team just reeks of 2012 Notre Dame. When they run into a real team in the playoffs, they're done. Hoping their luck runs out in the ACC title game so we can get 2 SEC teams, a Big 12, and a Pac-12. Oregon and TCU both deserve it.

P.S. "knowing how do win" doesn't mean fuckall. You know who else knows how to win? Every good team. They don't know anything Oregon or TCU or Alabama or Ole Miss or Mississippi State doesn't, and I'd take all of them over FSU in the playoffs.
 

Mr.E

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FSU is undefeated and the defending national champions. That is all I need to hear.

Expecting Bama to jump to #2 behind Oregon, while FSU and TCU stay pat. Miss State drops to #5, staying above THE Ohio State University who suddenly looks like they might have a shot to sneak in after all.
 
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Even if they jumped Miss St. after winning the B1G (which I'd be fine with, conference champs are generally more deserving anyway) Ohio State would still have to jump two of TCU/Baylor/Oregon to reach #4 by season's end. Barring something crazy happening, FSU and at least one SEC team (it will be MSU if Bama loses the Iron Bowl somehow) will get voted in, and at the moment Ohio State is a distant #4 behind those three teams with better wins and a less damaging loss. Baylor and Oregon can both easily drop a game, though, against OK/K State or Oregon State/the Pac-12 South winner.

It wouldn't be college football without some crazy unexpected upsets, though!
 
Alabama jumped to #1 with Mississippi State falling to #4. Oregon and Florida State stay in place. Thoughts? I think this was fair, knocking Mississippi State any farther down would be fucked up.
 
I think if Marshall, Boise State, or Colorado State don't make any of the next two rankings, safe to say the committee doesn't want Go5 teams in the rankings at all.
 
I think the top 4 is pretty accurate. A lot of people will be butthurt about FSU not being #1, but they earned their lower ranking with poor play, defending champs or not.

As the season goes on it feels more and more like it will be Bama-Oregon in the NCG, but we'll see how it plays out.
 
a lot of people tend to forget that #'s 1-4 actually will matter a lot once the playoffs start.

at the moment, it'll be an all-SEC Sugar Bowl (ugh), and FSU will travel cross-country to play Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
 

Mr.E

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I'm in the "undefeated, defending national champs should unquestionably be #1" camp and Baylor should probably be above OSU but I don't care too much about that stuff since FSU is guaranteed a playoff spot and Baylor/OSU aren't in anyway. As long as the top two teams are there, to make sure an arguable #2 isn't getting screwed over in favor of a close #3 (and/or SEC team), well that's why we moved from the BCS to a plus-one system. Below that and you don't get to complain that you weren't given a chance because some other team won the lottery the extra playoff spot(s), should've played better yo.

That said, typical SEC bias. Bama jumping Oregon is rather questionable and there's honestly no reason Miss State should be over TCU except for the same reason. TCU has better wins: K-State = Auburn, Oklahoma > Miss State's conference opponents (thus far), and they actually played one decent non-conference opponent (Minnesota). TCU has a better loss, a nailbiter to Baylor that they were in control of most of the game and choked away compared to Miss State getting basically crushed by Bama and being gifted garbage scores at the end of the game to make the game look close. (Granted, Bama is better than Baylor but not by much.)

Other than that, I called the important bits, including OSU jumping Baylor apparently.
 
I'm sick of the whole "FSU is the defending champs, they should be #1" argument. Last season doesn't mean a damn thing. What matters is who you are this year, and how you've played. And FSU has not even looked like the #3 team in the country, let alone #1.
 

Mr.E

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I'm not even against that line of thinking. If the committee wants strictly "the best," no strings attached, then neither being the defending champs nor being undefeated means anything. All that matters is who appears to be the best. But ultimately FSU really should at least get a chance to defend their title, they've long since proven their dominance on the field even if it doesn't look as pretty or convincing as the victories of other teams. At least they've managed to win all their games and while their SoS isn't amazing, we're not exactly talking Marshall's C-USA and MAC cupcake buffet.

I'm not sure how much lower they could really be. You can't penalize them too much for their conference schedule, since they can't choose not to play those opponents and they're power five, their OOC opponents have been overall pretty respectable (ND and OK State). How many more teams do you honestly think are better? OSU and Baylor's losses are both ass, so they worst you could put reasonably put them down is to #5 behind Miss State and TCU. And Miss State's OOC schedule makes Marshall's look decent, so if anything they're the ones that should be out of the current playoff picture while FSU and TCU fight over #3-#4. Are you giving Miss State that much credit for being in the SEC West?

History does matter. Recent success, especially the past 1-3 years because that includes some still-existing players on current teams, helps us guesstimate how good this year's teams are. For example, Ole Miss and Miss State have literally never been good in the history of college football. Why do we assume they're so good this year? Because historically, more importantly very recent history at that, the SEC has been strong. Bama is a known quantity, based on both historical and recent success, and Ole Miss beat them. SEC West teams have been competitive with one another, and we know at least one (Bama) if not 2-3 (LSU, Auburn) have been pretty good recently, so we assume the rest must be pretty good as well.
 

xJownage

Even pendulums swing both ways
Miss State beat A&M by crushing them, Auburn by almost crushing them, At LSU by crushing them (oh and LSU beat Ole Miss at home while Ole Miss beat alabama yet MSU lost to Alabama and agghh), and lost to Alabama by 5 points. Please, you guys need to stop acting like MSU is the worst team ever. The entire SEC west is so uber competitive that losing to ANY team in conference by any amount means virtually nothing in the scale of how good the teams are. Look at the patterns of who has beaten who, and you will realize that NONE of it makes ANY sense at all, so please stop trying to make sense of it and realize that the committee has decided to make a bunch of educated guesses for their rankings.
 
I'm not sure how much lower they could really be. You can't penalize them too much for their conference schedule, since they can't choose not to play those opponents and they're power five, their OOC opponents have been overall pretty respectable (ND and OK State).
You don't even have to penalize them for their weak schedule. They deserved to be punished based on how they've played against a weak schedule. A close win against a terrible team should never, ever be viewed as "better" than a close loss against an elite team. Any system that truly, unbiasedly wants to rank teams by how they actually play would not include FSU in the top 4. Take a look at how FSU and the 1-loss teams have fared in close games this year:

Alabama close games: @ Arkansas, @ LSU, vs. #4 Miss St., @ #8 Ole Miss (loss)
Additional wins within 2 possessions: @Tennessee, vs. West Virginia (in Atlanta)
SOS (taken from here): 2nd

TCU close games: vs. #21 Oklahoma, @ West Virginia, @ Kansas, @ #7 Baylor (loss)
Additional wins within 2 possessions: none
SOS: 38th

Oregon close games: @ Washington St., vs. #15 Arizona (loss)
Additional wins within 2 possessions: @ #9 UCLA
SOS: 22nd
Notes: 19+ point wins vs. #11 Michigan State and @ #17 Utah,

Miss State close games: @ LSU, vs. Arkansas, @ #1 Alabama (loss)
Additional wins within 2 possessions: vs. UAB (lol), vs. #14 Auburn, @ Kentucky
SOS: 32nd

Baylor close games: vs. #5 TCU, @ West Virginia (loss by 14)
Additional wins within 2 possessions: none (they blow out everyone)
SOS: 55th
Ohio State close games: vs. Virginia Tech (loss by 14), @ Penn State, @ Minnesota
Additional wins within 2 possessions: @ #11 Michigan State, vs. Indiana
SOS: 47th
Florida State close games: @ Ok State, vs. #22 Clemson, vs Notre Dame, @ Miami, vs. Boston College
Additional wins within 2 possessions: @ NC State, @ #24 Louisville, vs. Virginia
SOS: 51st

Of Florida State's 11 games, 8 have been within two possessions and 5 have been within one. The only teams they've put away handily are Citadel, Wake Forest, and Syracuse. None of the one-loss teams are even close. Alabama has had 4 one possession games, but really only the 1 point win against Arkansas is close to FSU's games against Boston College or Miami. Florida State also has the 2nd easiest schedule of these teams, though it's basically equivalent to Ohio State's and Baylor's (all their SOS's should go up once they play Georgia Tech/winner of B1G West/OK and K-State though).

If FSU was 10-1 right now, not a single person would be talking about them deserving to make the playoffs over TCU, Baylor, Miss State, or Ohio State. And they have been very, very close to losing multiple games this year - almost reminiscent of Auburn last year, though far less flashy. Sadly, they're 11-0 and soon to be 12-0, and our only true hope lies in Georgia Tech, who will somehow be the best team FSU has played all season.

If FSU finishes 13-0, there's literally no way the playoff panel or whatever can keep them out of the playoffs, and that's fine. They are not so undeserved that it would be a travesty if they make it, though I'd be pretty upset if I were a fan of whoever finishes #5.
 

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