Respect the Odds [LC Warstory]

Introduction
Hey there! I've been a very long time lurker never poster, and passed many hours reading the forums here for team ideas, tactic suggestions, and pokémon news of the day. But what I loved reading most on these forums were warstories. Sadly, they seem to have died out a while ago, and even worse, never made a comeback.
I always thought I'd post a warstory one day, I definitely always wanted to. Unfortunately, that one, perfect battle that you need to post never came. I'm not too sure that may ever be possible, but I felt this one was worthy and decided that on this day, posted it shall be!


Kyriah's Team


This was the team I was trying out that day, with a VoltTurn core of Mienfoo / Chinchou / Larvesta, Drilbur to spin / place hazards, Croagunk to create a little fighting spam with Mienfoo as well as much needed priority and knocking off Eviolites, and finally Pumpkaboo-Super for my Ground weakness. I felt it made sense as a team and was a pretty good starting point to build on.

Opponent's Team

Welp, I take that back. Fletchling is an immediate threat, as I have 4 Flying weak and a shaky check in Chinchou, which Magnemite can take Volt Switches from easily and hit my team hard in return, especially on a misprediction. I definitely cannot let Chinchou get weakened taking any hits from it either. Dwebble is in the starting position, so it may be his hazard setter, but it may just as easily be Shell Smash with Stealth Rocks. Not to mention Abra, who can revenge my fighting types with its Focus Sash and weaken the rest of my team for a possible Scarf Gastly to clean sweep.

From now on, comments will be in blue.

Format:
LC
Sleep Clause Mod: Limit one foe put to sleep
Species Clause: Limit one of each Pokémon
OHKO Clause: OHKO moves are banned
Moody Clause: Moody is banned
Evasion Moves Clause: Evasion moves are banned
Endless Battle Clause: Forcing endless battles is banned
HP Percentage Mod: HP is shown in percentages

Kyriah's team: Mienfoo / Chinchou / Larvesta / Croagunk / Pumpkaboo-* / Drilbur
Opponent's team: Dwebble / Magnemite / Aipom / Fletchling / Abra / Gastly
Battle between Kyriah and Opponent started!

Lead Thoughts
So, he has a few options here. He could lead Dwebble and immediately get hazards up, trying to ruin my VoltTurn immediately, or go with Aipom, who usually gets sent out first. I don't expect Fletchling or Abra, as I have Mienfoo in my first spot intentionally to give the impression that it's a Fake Out lead (I actually don't carry it at all). I decide my best bet is Pumpkaboo-Super, as it burns both Aipom and Dwebble with Will-O-Wisp, turning them into relative non-issues for the remainder of the match.

Go! Pumpkaboo-Super!
Opponent sent out Aipom!

Pumpkaboo-Super frisked the opposing Aipom and found its Life Orb!

100%

100%


I expect a Knock Off or U-Turn here, but Will-O-Wisp hits his whole team and my Pumpkaboo beats Abra with Shadow Sneak, so I'm not worried if that comes in. Easy prediction here. The rest of the match... not so much.

Turn 1

The opposing Aipom used Knock Off!
It's super effective! Pumpkaboo-Super lost 64% of its health!
The opposing Aipom knocked off Pumpkaboo-Super's Eviolite!
The opposing Aipom lost some of its HP!

Pumpkaboo-Super used Will-O-Wisp!
The opposing Aipom avoided the attack!
36%

91%

Ouch. That did not go well. First, that did a lot more damage than I was hoping for, and second, I missed the burn as well. Pumpkaboo will live another Knock Off, but what can it do after that? At 36%, it can still take a possible hit from Dwebble and Synthesis up, and I'd really like its Shadow Sneak for Gastly and Abra. Also, once it's at 1hp after the next Knock off, something else will have to take a burned hit anyway.

I decide my best play is Larvesta, as best case scenario, I can hope for Flame Body hax, and worst case, well, it won't be too useful against his very fast, very frail team.

Turn 2

Pumpkaboo-Super, come back!
Go!
Larvesta!
The opposing
Aipom used Knock Off!

Larvesta lost 34.8% of its health!
The opposing Aipom was burned!
The opposing Aipom knocked off Larvesta's Eviolite!
The opposing Aipom lost some of its HP!
The opposing Aipom was hurt by its burn!

66%
73% BRN

Phew. Luckily, I get the burn when it has a much lower chance to happen, in exchange for two of my pokes losing their Eviolite. While I did say Larvesta would not be too useful in this match, I don't want to recklessly wittle its HP as it is still part of my VoltTurn core, and can give me momentum, even if it's just to sack it.
I expect him to either U-Turn / hard switch into Dwebble, as it's the only member of his team that can take a Larvesta hit comfortably, or to stay in and sack his Aipom for the almighty switch advantage, which could easily grant him a kill here.

I decide to calc my Pumpkaboo's chances of surviving a Knock Off from 36%, and lo and behold:
196 Atk Life Orb burned Aipom Knock Off vs. 204 HP / 116+ Def Pumpkaboo-Super: 6-9 (24 - 36%) -- 15.4% chance to 3HKO

That makes this one of my few chances to recover some health on Pumpkaboo, as it can handle two of three scenarios: Dwebble or the Normal-type attack on Larvesta, only losing out in the case he U-Turns (if he has it).

Turn 3

Larvesta, come back!
Go!
Pumpkaboo-Super!

Pumpkaboo-Super frisked the opposing Aipom and found its Life Orb!
The opposing Aipom used Fury Swipes!
It doesn't affect Pumpkaboo-Super...

The opposing Aipom was hurt by its burn!

36%

64% BRN


As above, I'm committed to the Synthesis here and praying he does not get absolute max damage roll.


Turn 4

The opposing Aipom used Knock Off!
It's super effective! Pumpkaboo-Super lost 32% of its health!
The opposing Aipom lost some of its HP!


Pumpkaboo-Super used Synthesis!
Pumpkaboo-Super regained health!

The opposing Aipom was hurt by its burn!

52%

46% BRN

The plan goes off without hitch, although living on that 1HP made my heart skip a beat. You could say my options open up here, but I'd disagree. I could go for the "greedy" decision and Synthesis up to full, as he dies slowly to LO recoil and burn damage, or I could predict a switch, as healing myself is the most obvious play.

The problem with predicting that switch is a) He has shown no consideration for his Aipom's life and b) If he stays in, I will die to the second Knock Off and lose the Pumpkaboo I tried so hard to save. Being the compassionate person that I am, heal away Pumpky.

Turn 5
Opponent withdrew Aipom!
Opponent sent out
Gastly!

Pumpkaboo-Super used Synthesis!

Pumpkaboo-Super regained health!
100%
100%

Honestly, had I predicted a switch, it would not have been Gastly. I would have thought Dwebble for hazards would be his priority, but seeing this play, I'm starting to think Dwebble is late game Shell Smash after his team weakens counters. I keep that in mind but have to focus on the threat on the field for now.

As I said in team preview, Gastly can hurt my team. A lot. I doubt he's Focus Sash, as he could have come in on a Will-O-Wisp had I predicted the switch, so my guess is LO or Scarf. LO 2HKOs my entire team, so I'll have to sack something here if it is. I've been keeping Pumpkaboo around exactly for Gastly and Abra, and one of them is here.


Turn 6

Pumpkaboo-Super used Shadow Sneak!
It's super effective! The opposing Gastly lost 94.7% of its health!
The opposing Gastly used Shadow Ball!
It's super effective! Pumpkaboo-Super lost 96% of its health!
1%
1%


Pumpkaboo you sexy bulky beast! I abuse damage calculators in battle sometimes, and knew Pumpkaboo had a slim (31.2%) chance of survival, but was not expecting it. I also had a slimmer chance of OHKOing with Shadow Sneak, but we both end up barely alive.

Now, he knows Gastly runs through my team. He has to at this point. With how aggressive his team is, he can also easily prevent hazards from my side, so there's little doubt in my mind that he wants to preserve Gastly, even at 1%. Not to mention, he has a perfect ghost type immunity in Aipom right here, that even burned and all, can at least do 1% worth of damage. And I do care for Pumpkaboo, I really do.

Turn 7

The opposing Gastly used Sucker Punch!
But it failed!
Pumpkaboo-Super used Synthesis!
Pumpkaboo-Super regained health!
52%
1%


Pumpkaboo. Still. Not. Dead. Sucker Punch was unexpected, but made sense. It would've hit before my Shadow Sneak and Gastly would've lived another day to ravage my team.

I feel a bit of déjà vu, but this time it's different. Pumpkaboo survives Gastly's Sucker Punch easily, and does not need full health to break Abra's potential Focus Sash.

Turn 8

Pumpkaboo-Super used Shadow Sneak!
It's super effective! The opposing Gastly lost 5.3% of its health!
The opposing Gastly fainted!

52%
FNT

(6-5)

Being so protective of Pumpkaboo since the beginning pays off, as my opponent either predicts I will try to get it to full again on the predicted Sucker Punch, or just wants it gone, and he goes for the kill. And that's threat #1 out of the way, now to recuperate and get ready for -
Opponent sent out Fletchling!

52%

100%

Damnit. Enter threat #2. My opponent obviously knows which of his pokémon are the most dangerous against my team.

While before with Gastly not having LO I managed to survive by the skin of my teeth, this time something has to faint. Yes, I could go into Chinchou right now and take 33% of my health from an Acrobatics as I am not Eviolite, and Volt Switch. But next time, Chinchou is 2HKO'd, and I'd rather play it safe now and risk Chinchou when I'm in more of a pinch.

I have little opportunity to setup the Stealth Rocks that would be quite helpful against his team without also being setup bait while doing so, so I let Drilbur take the hit.

Turn 9

Pumpkaboo-Super, come back!
Go!
Drilbur!

Drilbur breaks the mold!
The opposing Fletchling used Acrobatics!
Drilbur lost 52.2% of its health!
48%

100%

No damage variations to save me this time.

Turn 10

The opposing Fletchling used Acrobatics!
Drilbur lost 47.8% of its health!
Drilbur fainted!

FNT
100%

(5-5)
Go! Chinchou!

100%

100%

The only Flying resist left on my team now is my only switch-in, there wasn't much up for debate there. Whether I Volt Switch or Scald, Aipom is almost certainly coming in to die. After that, if I Volt Switched, Fletchling comes in to kill whatever I Volt Switch into. If I Scalded, Magnemite can HP Ground my Chinchou so Fletchling can sweep my whole team, or it can even Volt Switch my predicted switch-in into Fletchling, netting a kill or weakening Chinchou and another poké, with a Sturdy Magnemite still in the back. 2 out of 3 says Volt Switch is the lesser evil.

Turn 11

Opponent withdrew Fletchling!
Opponent sent out
Aipom!

Chinchou used Volt Switch!

The opposing Aipom lost 45.5% of its health!
The opposing Aipom fainted!

100%

FNT

(5-4)

Chinchou went back to Kyriah!

Of my remaining 4 pokémon besides Chinchou, all get OHKO'd by Fletchling, so whatever I bring in will lure it out.

Go! Larvesta!
Opponent sent out Fletchling!

66%
100%


All goes as expected. The match approaches endgame, yet, even with the score in my favor, I feel my opponent has the control. He has three pokémon that will never be OHKO'd thanks to Sturdy and Focus Sash, and Fletchling that can sweep my team by itself. While I could afford to lose a pokémon before, I can't afford the luxury here, so I switch into the only pokémon that can take Acrobatics.

Turn 12

Larvesta, come back!
Go!
Chinchou!

The opposing
Fletchling used Acrobatics!

It's not very effective... Chinchou lost 33.3% of its health!
67%

100%


He can only go to Magnemite or Dwebble, and while Volt Switch would give me momentum, he has an answer to each of the pokémon I can switch into. Croagunk lets Dwebble setup, Mienfoo cannot beat Fletchling or Abra, and Pumpkaboo needs perfect prediction between Will-O-Wisp and Shadow Sneak to beat a possible Abra switch. While Scald would make me lose the game right here if he stays in to Acrobatics, I have no chance to win without risking it. I need at least Magnemite or Dwebble weakened so I can have more options with my other pokémon.

Turn 13
Opponent withdrew Fletchling!
Opponent sent out Magnemite!

Chinchou used Scald!

The opposing Magnemite lost 63.2% of its health!
The opposing Magnemite's Berry Juice activated!
The opposing Magnemite restored HP using its Berry Juice!


67%

100%

FML. Sturdy Berry Juice. I accomplished basically nothing that turn and he has plenty of options now. He's one HP Ground away on my Chinchou to having the win. Meh, I feel like I've been doing damage control most of the match and have yet to get ahead.

A switch has to happen. Pumpkaboo does nothing to Magnemite. Larvesta can't take two hits without Eviolite as it's slower. Mienfoo I'd like to keep healthy to check Dwebble, so Croagunk is my last option. At least it'd take a hit and break Sturdy. Wasn't a VoltTurn core supposed to give me momentum?

Turn 14
Chinchou, come back!
Go!
Croagunk!

Opponent withdrew
Magnemite!
Opponent sent out
Abra!

100%
100%

And my opponent makes a beautiful double switch into an even bigger threat. This does make me think that Magnemite does not have HP Ground though. I cling on to the thread of hope that it is Focus Sash and not Substitute Abra, and begin to believe that there actually may be a light at the end of the tunnel.

I think back since the very beginning of the game and the last few turns - I've been playing very risky. I used Synthesis instead of going for what looked like a certain kill. I used Scald instead of Volt Switching. My opponent, on the other hand, has been playing it relatively safe. Until last turn. Maybe, with just a little push.. Either way, I need to Vacuum Wave here to break the Sash, as his team looks very much like a Sash Hyper Offense style team.

Turn 15

Croagunk used Vacuum Wave!
It's not very effective... The opposing Abra lost 15.8% of its health!
The opposing Abra used Psyshock!
It's super effective! Croagunk lost 100% of its health!
Croagunk fainted!

FNT
85%

(4-4)

Team Recap:

Kyriah -


Opponent -


There's the tie. Now, let's reinforce that risky playstyle.
Go! Pumpkaboo-Super!

Pumpkaboo-Super frisked the opposing Abra and found its Focus Sash!

52%

85%



Pumpkaboo confirms my Sash suspicion. Shadow Sneak is pretty much my obvious, safe play here. But not the one I'll be going for. Fletchling has terrorized my team since it showed up in team preview, and to deal with all the other threats, I need something to break in his team.

My opponent is starting to show signs of predictions, but I feel he'll go back to being safe after he tied the score. That's why Fletchling is his play here, and mine is Chinchou. Again, if Abra attacks, Chinchou goes < 33% or faints, and I lose.

Turn 16

Opponent withdrew Abra!
Opponent sent out Fletchling!

Pumpkaboo-Super, come back!
Go!
Chinchou!

67%

100%

And we're back to this again. This time though, Scald gets a kill. Scald kills Abra. Scald kills Magnemite. Scald brings Dwebble to Sturdy after Berry Juice activation, not to mention burn chances. But Scald will not kill Fletchling. Not with priority Acrobatics.

So the game really comes down to this - if I play risky yet again and he plays safe, he's back to being one down on the scoreboard. But that's what I've been doing pretty much the whole game. I just risked it again with a double switch. Surely I'll do it one more time.


Please work.

Turn 17

The opposing Fletchling used Acrobatics!
It's not very effective... Chinchou lost 33.3% of its health!
Chinchou used Volt Switch!
It's super effective! The opposing Fletchling lost 100% of its health!
The opposing Fletchling fainted!
Chinchou went back to Kyriah!

33%

FNT
(4-3)

YES. That definitely brought me back from the dead, but that doesn't mean it's over. Far from it. Now we're in deep endgame.

He has Dwebble, Magnemite, and Abra. I have Mienfoo, Chinchou, Larvesta, and Pumpkaboo. Magnemite would be a poor choice on his part, unless I went to Larvesta, which would be a waste of a sack on my part. I'm still very much wary of Shell Smash Dwebble, as it has the potential to sweep me at a moment's notice. Sturdy Berry Juice seems to be the set fitting his team the most, which would beat Chinchou, Larvesta, and Pumpkaboo if they miss a burn. Abra would lose to Chinchou and Pumpkaboo, but beat Mienfoo and Larvesta. So Mienfoo would be my best bet, and Dwebble his.


Go! Mienfoo!
Opponent sent out Abra!

100%
85%

Best bet is not always the winning bet though, is it? He predicts very well and I'm on the losing end of this matchup. Nothing on my team lives a Psyshock, so Larvesta will be the sacrificial lamb, as it loses to Magnemite (Sturdy) and I'd rather not risk the Will-O-Wisp miss on Dwebble anyway.

Turn 18
Mienfoo, come back!
Go! Larvesta!

The opposing Abra used Psyshock!

Larvesta lost 65.2% of its health!
Larvesta fainted!

FNT
85%
(3-3)

Go! Pumpkaboo-Super!

Pumpkaboo-Super frisked the opposing Abra and found its Focus Sash!

52%

85%



Here we are again. Truth is, at this point, every single play has a chance to end the game. If I lose just one pokémon, I lose the game. I need Mienfoo for Dwebble. I need Chinchou to break Magnemite's or Dwebble's Sturdy / Berry Juice. I need Pumpkaboo for Abra. My opponent though, only needs Abra alive, and Pumpkaboo dead. On the other hand, if Abra faints, nothing besides hax wins him the game. That's why, again, I go back to the basics. Odds go to Chinchou..

Turn 19
Opponent withdrew Abra!
Opponent sent out
Magnemite!

Pumpkaboo-Super, come back!
Go! Chinchou!

33%

100%

Alright, can breathe a bit easy. My plan is the same as before. Break Sturdy, clean with Pumpkaboo and Mienfoo. He can't switch here, unless he wants to risk the burn on Dwebble, and Abra is his win condition. Scald is the best and only play.

Turn 20

Chinchou used Scald!
The opposing Magnemite lost 52% of its health!
The opposing Magnemite used Flash Cannon!
A critical hit! It's not very effective... Chinchou lost 25% of its health!

7%

48%

The crit matters little, as Chinchou gets a kill next turn. I do have to wonder if his Flash Cannon was a misprediction or he was simply sacking the Magnemite, but I'm guessing the latter. Little to say here.

Turn 21

Chinchou used Scald!
The opposing Magnemite lost 48% of its health!
The opposing Magnemite fainted!

7%

FNT
(3-2)

Opponent sent out Abra!

7%

85%

Nothing switches into Psyshock, nothing else wants to take Scald, no wiggle room for both of us.

Turn 22

Chinchou used Scald!
The opposing Abra lost 63.1% of its health!
The opposing Abra was burned!

The opposing Abra used Psyshock!
Chinchou lost 7% of its health!
Chinchou fainted!

FNT

22%

(2-2)

Go! Pumpkaboo-Super!

Pumpkaboo-Super frisked the opposing Abra and found its Focus Sash!

52%

22%


And of course, it all comes full circle. Two times before we've had this matchup, two times I've switched out. If I Shadow Sneak and he switches, I lose. If I switch and he Psyshocks, I lose. Taking calculated risks has benefited me more than playing safe has benefited him. What were those odds again? Two out of three..

Turn 23

Pumpkaboo-Super used Shadow Sneak!
The opposing Abra lost 21.1% of its health!
Abra fainted!

52%

FNT

(2-1)

That seals it. The rest, barring hax, is just the remainder of the done game. The only thing I had to do was use Shadow Sneak to break Sturdy without activating Berry Juice, then Will-O-Wisp if he tried to setup once more, and Drain Punch him at -2 defences for the kill.

Opponent sent out Dwebble!

52%

100%

Turn 24

Pumpkaboo-Super used Shadow Sneak!
A critical hit! The opposing Dwebble lost 33% of its health!

The opposing Dwebble used Shell Smash!
The opposing Dwebble's Attack sharply rose!
The opposing Dwebble's Special Attack sharply rose!
The opposing Dwebble's Speed sharply rose!
The opposing Dwebble's Defense fell!
The opposing Dwebble's Special Defense fell!

52%

67%

Turn 25

The opposing Dwebble used X-Scissor!
Pumpkaboo-Super lost 52% of its health!

Pumpkaboo-Super fainted!
FNT

67%

(1-1)

Turn 26

The opposing Dwebble used Earthquake!
Mienfoo lost 61.9% of its health!

Mienfoo used Drain Punch!
The opposing Dwebble lost 67% of its health!
The opposing Dwebble had its energy drained!


The opposing Dwebble fainted!

39%

FNT

(1-0)

Kyriah won the battle!

----

If you got this far, thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed it!
Props:
  • Pumpkaboo for pulling bulk out of its arse and saving the day just by being there.
  • Fletchling & Abra for mopping the floor with me.
  • Mienfoo for not letting me get swept last turn by Shell Smash Dwebble.

Slops:
  • Drilbur for lack of fatness.
  • Aipom for dodging a burn then putting his hand on fire himself.
  • My teambuilding skills, they're usually better, I swear!


Credits:
PokemonElite2000 for Sprites
Alchemator for formatting


edited: I fail at percentages
 
Last edited:

Melon

WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Amazing first post, it was really fun to read ^_^

I'm looking forward to see someone new around the forums
 

Anthiese

formerly Jac
is a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
Havent seen a warstory since my DPP lurk days. Thank you for this, welcome to LC as well! Can't wait to see more out of you.
 

Holiday

on my best behavior
is a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
A fantastic read. I love warstories, and the thought and effort you've shown in this post is amazing. Welcome to Smogon.
 
Thank you so much for this Kyriah! Well made Warstories are absolutely amazing, and I really wish people would post them more! Looks like you know your stuff, I hope to see you around in LC, and I hope this post inspires more war stories from others!
 

Rowan

The professor?
is a Community Leader Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
Well technically you have to get permission from a mod of this forum (me, macle, prem) to post a new thread, but I'll let that slide because this is a really well written thread. I like the way on turn 18, you analyse why you need all your pokemon alive, and you analyse the end-game a lot in general. A great tip for newer players is to always work out how you can actually win the game, and what to do to make sure that happens, so it's really cool that your thought process is so in detail here. Warstories take a lot of time and effort to write and format, so props for spending your time writing one, and I hope to see you around this forum more!
 
Well technically you have to get permission from a mod of this forum (me, macle, prem) to post a new thread, but I'll let that slide because this is a really well written thread. I like the way on turn 18, you analyse why you need all your pokemon alive, and you analyse the end-game a lot in general. A great tip for newer players is to always work out how you can actually win the game, and what to do to make sure that happens, so it's really cool that your thought process is so in detail here. Warstories take a lot of time and effort to write and format, so props for spending your time writing one, and I hope to see you around this forum more!
Woops! I apologize, you'd think I should have known that after all these years. Thank you though for letting it slide ^^

And thank you very much to all the others for the replies, I didn't actually reply till now because after spending some hours writing the warstory, I went straight to sleep. =P
So seeing all the feedback right after I woke up was very unexpected, but also very appreciated.

Looking forward to learning a lot more about LC and teambuilding now with all the encouragement, thanks all again!

suspect? j/k
 
Excellent warstory, was a really fun read overall and the plays at the end really make this worthy of being made into a warstory (the double switch at turn 19 was really the main play imo). I guess at turn 24 you could have used Shadow Sneak again as he couldn't possibly boost further, but Mienfoo made this a non-issue, so great job! Hope to see you more around this subforum n_n

EDIT-oops forgot to account for berry juice, not sure how it slipped by me lol
 
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Excellent warstory, was a really fun read overall and the plays at the end really make this worthy of being made into a warstory (the double switch at turn 19 was really the main play imo). I guess at turn 24 you could have used Shadow Sneak again as he couldn't possibly boost further, but Mienfoo made this a non-issue, so great job! Hope to see you more around this subforum n_n
Thank you!

As for the last few turns, I should have included more of a comment I suppose. I'd been fearing SturdyJuice Dwebble the last portion of the match, and was worried if I Shadow Sneaked again as he killed Pumpkaboo, his Berry Juice would activate (below 50%), bring him to full with Sturdy intact, and Mienfoo then needed to live two +2 Earthquakes instead of just one. Granted it would have with the Drain Punch recovery, but it may have been more susceptible to a crit.
 
This is a very well-written warstory: the match was great, and your comments expansive and explanatory of the situation. Then I see this is your very first post.



OMG, this is just amazing!!! Keep going like so, and you will be golden. I cannot wait to see your contribute, and I bet all us can't too.
 

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