I will make this very clear at the top of this post, because apparently this is a point of apprehension with everyone here. I assumed that me saying
BT is right in that no lynch should go through but everyone should at least post once?
meant that von's reasoning was right? I further addressed the SAME POINT I AM CURRENTLY MAKING in another post, which apparently you didn't think related enough to it? I don't get it. You selectively are ignoring what I posted. I didn't think it needed further explanation, but I guess I'm sorry if I don't realize that I need to directly quote posts to accurately address them?
I don't see how I ignored it - I addressed that von was right in agreeing with BT? There was nothing more to add.
Vote for me if want to Serious Bananas but your reasoning is as silly as the joking reason I provided for Cancerous.
Amazingly enough, everyone here has moved forward under the assumption that the people who are posting incredibly seriously (which is obviously an entirely subjective metric and subject to one's own biases and predispositions) are the people who have to be good, when common sense argues the opposite point. If the mafia are aware of the stereotypes of past games, without a doubt they are going to act in such a way that they don't fulfill them. Past NOC voting patterns dictate this to be true - of the past 3 NOC games (all of which MISLYNCHED on D1) ~31% of the voters voting against the victim have been mafia (I can post the sample I'm using as well!), which represents 56% of the mafia members involved in these games! That means you're more likely to hit a mafia member by simply voting the voters of the day 1 lynch than you are by randomly voting.
Think about this for a second - it's incredibly likely that the mafia are aware of each other. The Day 1 Lynch is in their favour with how rarely works. They get to vote along with people while causing confusion and havoc. Because of this, the Day 1 Lynch really serves as a cleaning method. Amongst all the bandwagoning, (and especially at higher voting numbers or a higher # of people positing), the mafia are able to easily blend in. If a vote has a large number of people for it, it's because there is a likely a mafia member contained within that voting group, and as such, the person being lynched IS MUCH MORE LIKELY to be clean. This is subject to when the person votes, obviously (as some mafia members will bandwagon along with their teammates getting voted by voting at the end), but it's something to consider.
With myself being good, and with 4 people having posted with regards to their suspicions about me, it INCREASES the probability that I am clean. If we assume the breakdown for the game is 3/11/1, then that leaves 3 mafia, 10 villagers, and the courier unaccounted for, and the more votes/suspicious comments we add, the more likely it is that a mafia member is targeting me. There WILL NEVER be a clean sweep, but the higher the number of voters against a user, the more likely it is they are clean on D1, as the ONLY guaranteed information available is the mafia members TO the other mafia members.
Feel free to use this defense of myself as the "confirmation" of my "scumminess", but I fail to see any other logical course of action in my scenario.
