NOC Fallout New Vegas NOC [GAME OVER - Wastelanders Win]

[vonFiedler]

Based on HD’s flip, I think it’s safe to say that ButteredToast, vonFiedler, Mithril, and PokeguyNXB are not mafia. The first three because they were consistently supportive of an HD lynch throughout the day, and Pokeguy because he was HD’s “top scum read” and one of the other viable lynch options yesterday.

On the contrary, it shouldn't mean anything. It would be very logical given the circumstances to distance oneself from HD, and besides which Mithril only recently joined us. I can already see a lot of WIFOM arguments involving what the flip does and doesn't do, and the discussion is good (good god can we please actually discuss this one), but try to keep some perspective.

For instance, HD voting for Jalmont a long time in Day 1 means nothing. It would be a pretty simple trick to have a vote on a teammate who isn't gonna get lynched so that someone can look back and point this out later.

For instance, BT ultimately got HD lynched through a massive post, but he quoted that post and almost everyone missed it. If HD wasn't lynched that day, but was lynched later, couldn't BT have been like "look at this massive post that no one noticed, I sure helped didn't I?"

For instance, I was always in favor of lynching HD, but on the actual day he stood a chance of lynching, was he ever my primary target? And I reposted BT's post, but if no one bothered to read it the first time, maybe no one would again.

These are all WIFOM arguments, so I don't want to see people getting their knickers in a twist to defend themselves. They are merely possibilities that prove that "X voted for Y, they must be town" is no substitute for thorough and careful analysis of behavioral patterns.

This doesn’t mean then any of the above players can’t be the Courier.

Since the mafia already knows this, there's no reason not to make this public: I was the BPV and the Legion targeted me with a kill last night, which is why there were no deaths. More Cowbell am I allowed to quote night results? I think I was rolename inspected by HD's role N1 and they saw that I wasn't a vanilla so tried to kill me. Heh they suck.

And the fact that above all else, you almost certainly aren't mafia due to the HD flip, does not mean that you aren't Courier. Hell, HD suspected that you were (I did too, for the record, not gonna hide that). So you're pretty certain that they killed you because they rolecopped you, however, what sense does that make? How could they possibly think you weren't vanilla from your rolename in a themed game? Is your rolename extra special, because I notice you didn't claim IT.

There are a myriad of reasons that the mafia might have wanted you killed. For instance, if Fatecrashers isn't one of them, killing you could have easily incriminated him. Honestly, with the crazy amount of tunneling you've had on Fate, one might suspect that you're our inspector. And that'd be a win/win. Or maybe they just banked on you not being BG'd. ButteredToast ultimately pulled through and got HD lynched, so he would have been a good BG target. I was almost universally at the top of town read lists, so I could have been BG'd. You might have just been someone they suspected wouldn't be.

And yet you assume this convoluted scenario where they checked you, said "ah, he's not vanilla, not sure how we know this though", and then killed you.

I want people to imagine a hypothetical scenario here: Spiffy is the Courier. BPV is not an uncommon village role in NOC, but it's a very common Wolf tool on Smogon. Over the course of Day 2, he sees not 1 but 2 players that he has suspected to be mafia suggest that he is the Courier, so now he's sweating. Role cop flips, and everything starts to make sense. All of our village role names aren't going to reveal a whole lot, but he'd show up as The Courier. Then his BPV pops, and he thinks he knows why. And since it's no skin off his back if Fate is incriminated, why not run with it? So he posts this story almost exactly, only he can't be Courier, so he replaces it with "not vanilla". Only that stops making sense. And while it seems like the Courier might not have a kill, or maybe it's contingent or limited, why would the host tell the village BPV that the legion tried to kill them? Wouldn't that always be "someone tried to kill you"? At the very least if he's village, since if he's correct this reveals some important information about our neutral. But if he's Courier, then obv the Courier didn't try to kill him, hence the Legion did.

This along with the other connections between Fate and HD that ButteredToast and I have pointed out makes it a no brainer to lynch Fatecrashers.

But this is such a well established "mistake" that you have gotten on my ass multiple times for calling it a lie when it was "only a mistake". But if it is "only a mistake", then why are you still lying about it? ButteredToast, did you ever actually point this out or is Spiffy making that up too?


On another note, I actually agree with Serious Bananas as well. Moreover, it is time for the oil to separate from the water, as I've said. I want to see sunny004 be much more active and helpful today, now that we have things to actually talk about. And I want him to address the voting patterns that Bananas brought up.

It's not like I don't want to see more from PokeguyNXB as well, just that I feel like Sunny has to defend himself over this.

 

[Amianki]

Updated Vote Count (final given for day 1)

ButteredToast (2): Amianki, Serious Bananas
Cancerous (2): Jalmont, rssp1
Spiffy (2): Celever, PokeguyNXB
Fatecrashers (1): Spiffy
Haunted Diamond (1): vonFiedler
Jalmont (1): Haunted Diamond

Not voting (6): ButteredToast, Cancerous, Fatecrashers, Lightwolf, sunny004, Ullar

---

Day 1 End Vote Count

Cancerous (7): Jalmont, rssp1, sunny004, Fatecrashers, Amianki, Spiffy, ButteredToast
Spiffy (2): Celever, PokeguyNXB
Haunted Diamond (2): vonFiedler, Lightwolf
ButteredToast (1): Serious Bananas
Jalmont (1): Haunted Diamond

Not voting (2): Ullar, Cancerous

---

Day 2 final votecount:

Haunted Diamond (8): ButteredToast, vonFiedler, Mithril, Spiffy, PokeguyNXB, Amianki, Jalmont, sunny004
sunny004 (3): Celever, Serious Bananas, rssp1
PokeguyNXB (1): Fatecrashers
vonFiedler (1): Haunted Diamond

I'd still like to lynch within the Cancerous wagon for right now. There's minimum one scum there. Jalmont especially is someone I'd like to flip right now.

I'll look at associations and whichever later on.

 

[vonFiedler]

Worth pointing out that in the process of hammering, no one switched from Sunny (as far as I can tell from what Amianki just posted).

Amianki I feel you, but if you want to lynch Jalmont you're going to have to put more work into it. You kind of just disappeared yesterday.

 

[Celever]

Lynch sunny004.

He was on the Cancerous wagon and was the last to jump on HD. Jumping on a falling comrade for townie cred? Seems likely.

 

[vonFiedler]

Please don't bandwagon yet.

 

[Celever]

Please don't bandwagon yet.

I'm not bandwagoning?

 

[vonFiedler]

I'm not bandwagoning?

There's already a vote on Sunny, there doesn't need to be two. Please discuss for now.

 

[Fatecrashers]

yes i am such a shitty mafia i would go out of my way to buddy with my scum pal haunted on everything, how was that vote an attempt to save haunted in any way? i knew spiffy would get on my ass about haunted again but if i was mafia would i really act as haphazardly as spiffy thinks i have been doing

 

[ButteredToast]

For one, let me just say how shocked I am that I'm still playing this game. I thought for sure they would target me. Also I really thought that Spiffy was the announcer based on his reaction to Haunted Diamond's claim plus what the announcer said. And that spiffy was going to force him into a bad play. So I was totally wrong in that but that's more than okay. All the other behavior was just too much. Totally pumped when we were right though. Spiffy, Von, and me did some good magic I think. Though I do owe Spiffy for pointing me in the direction (though he kind of left me hanging out by myself there and even said at post #884 that HD was a terrible lynch) and Von for backing me up when no one else really would.

Two things! One, I see there was no announcement so I'm assuming whoever was the announcer got blocked for the night. So whoever is the village hooker, you probably hit the Announcer. Two, our win condition for the village is just to eliminate the mafia. We don't have to eliminate the wolf so I'm not worried about him at all. I do think that the Wolf might be Spiffy, but I don't see how it matters all that much right now. We don't need the wolf dead and we have some good mafia reads I think.

For day 2, I can agree that Fate is the prime suspect. I feel like he over reacted drastically to the Haunted Diamond thing day 1 where he freaked out and voted for him only to not actually vote anything. I also have felt pretty uneasy about the way he is playing. It doesn't seem helpful or thoughtful to us.

vonFiedler I did point out that despite being called out for following each other Day 1, both Haunted and Fate continued to follow each other day 2. He isn't making it up. It was in the review post. :)

I also agree the Sunny's vote was way late to the party and he would be a good vote choice too.

Amianki and Celever are decent votes moving forward to just because I felt they were the largest opposition to lynching HD. Might not mean anything but then again who knows. They're a good place to look as well if Fate or Sunny claim something that makes sense.

 

[Fatecrashers]

butteredtoast the announcement for the night is post 1018
i am curious as to whether anyone got smacked with a posting restriction

 

[JALMONT]

The mafia probably killed spiffy because that lynch essentially cleaned you, or at least, makes you look really good.

anyways while i wouldn't go as far as to say x people are clean now, i would say that the HD lynch makes certain players look better. thinking in absolutes isn't really all that helpful considering that if one is to say "everything is WIFOM" then you are basically throwing away a bunch of pertinent information for fear of something that shouldn't really be feared

i agree i think that the lynch made BT, von, me, celever look good, and spiffy look really good.

celever is a strange case because he was super against the lynch, too much so for it to make sense behaviorally as a mafia.

on the other hand, i think the lynch hurt fate (a lot), amianki, and sunny too i guess (maybe rspsp1?? idk)

I just find HD's play in general very strange considering that I don't see why he didn't just claim his role (or claim ANYTHING for that matter...). I dunno, I could speculate why that is, but this I feel will probably get me in trouble with the WIFOM crowd...

I'm also not really sure we need to worry about the courier given that they probably don't have a kill (or at least yet...) and that if they are a cult, we've probably lost already (l o l). so yeah, i don't think we really should be looking at that atm

Amianki what was HD's day 1 towntell?

peace

 

[Celever]

There's already a vote on Sunny, there doesn't need to be two. Please discuss for now.

2 votes isn't a bandwagon LMAO.

ButteredToast I still see no case on HD. Clearly I'm wrong, but hey :p. I don't see how being wrong makes me mafia. If you find Amianki and I suspicious, there must be more to it than "they were wrong :v"

 

[ButteredToast]

Oh. Well, there we go then. Guess I should pay more attention. Thanks Fate.

Celever, I said you were suspicious because of your defense. Not mafia but just suspicious. I'm not sure that it means anything much. Haunted Diamond pretty much gave up on his team so I suspect them to turn on him because he was a lost cause who wouldn't claim. I see Sunny and Amianki as doing this more. I honestly think that you were doing this and your defense was fairly genuine. But god only knows at this point.

I think that Fate and Sunny are both far better lynch targets for the day. Right now I'm just throwing it out there because if/when I get killed I want something for people to fall back onto to look at. There are better candidates than you right now.

Since no one from yesterday died, and so no one is really cleaned for me to look onto votes/suspicious, I really think the only two lynch choices are Fate and Sunny right now. However we do need to keep the pressure on and ask some questions of everyone.

 

[Fatecrashers]

at this point if i am going to be the better lynch candidate by default then it would probably benefit the village more if i claimed since my role is relatively easy to prove, if the village doesn't have lynching me to fall back on then perhaps scum hunting for today would be approached much differently

going to wait to hear more opinions on this

 

[ButteredToast]

We do have 3 days. I'd rather you wait a bit to claim. But it would be nice to hear your thoughts on why you voted for Pokeguy instead of Haunted Diamond. Kind of a little bit late but it would go a little bit of a ways to giving you a break without a claim.

 

[vonFiedler]

A Fatecrashers lynch still seems like nonsense to me. It hinges on assertions that never held water in the first place, and has been strangely tunneled by someone who might not be anti-village, but certainly might not be pro-village either.

If Sunny is as scummy as he is, I'd rather people were voting for Sunny.

I really don't want to go through this soft claim song and dance again. We lynched HD because his behavior in total was scummy. Not because he never claimed. That was always an absurdly stupid line of questioning. The fact that he flipped mafia only proves me point that we don't need to be held hostage by softclaims. Unless it is absolutely necessary, Fate should not claim, and I will give people shit for asking him to.

 

[Mithril]

gee i wonder why the announcer hasn't posted an announcement for day 2 yet

lynch pokeguynxb

I'm still curious what this post what supposed to mean, as it reads to me like an announcer claim. Regardless, I'm not very sold on a Fatecrashers lynch atm.

As von said, Spiffy's argument is weird to me, as from what I can tell it is rather hard to differentiate between users (in terms of power role or not) simply from role name. The two dead villagers were named Veronica Santangelo and Arcade Gannon. Personally neither of those screams non vanilla player to me.

I'm not sure why people are saying Jalmont is clean, since it would have been fairly easy to have HD call him out on his silly plan as a way of distancing each other. I think there may be something there with them being 2 of the 3 mafia, but I need to go back and look at it more closely.

It would be nice for Amianki to actually post something useful though, since outside of his vote count posts he really hasn't done much since early Day 2 from what I can remember.

Outside of those two, sunny004 seems like an obvious target, being both part of the Cancerous lynch and the hammer on HD. He has always seemed as more viable of a target than pokeguy to me as well, as he seemed to be trying to contribute just enough while pokeguy just seemed uninterested.

 

[Fatecrashers]

i will be up in around that time, i am still not comfortable with a lynch on haunted, spiffy made the point earlier at it is preferable to deal with the inactive players sooner rather than later, i feel that both pokeguynxb and sunny have both had more than enough time to be more vocal considering this is the end of day 2 and we've all had personal shit that's kept us busy, there's been adequate pressure put on them as well, and yet their replies have not been satisfactory, i would be most ok with lynching either sunny or pokeguynxb but probably no one else

this was my reasoning for the vote, then more votes got on haunted, then it seemed like he was ready to god kill himself so i didn't think switching my vote was essential, even if his facade was crumbling, then majority was reached while i was asleep

i think there's some confusion between spiffy and von as to what exactly the role cop does, does it just give out a flavour name or an indication of actual role function or what

 

[Spiffy]

Actually Mithril I looked at the OP and saw LightWolf listed as Vanilla and made the assumption that was his rolename for some reason. So yeah my initial theory makes no sense and most likely was not the case. Speculating about why I was targeted isn't really worth discussing it was just a possibility I threw in there.

Will respond to other stuff when I can get to a computer.

 

[JALMONT]

everyone in the game might not be anti-village and might not be pro-village so i don't really get what that means

it was also pretty scummy to softclaim a role and then just outright not claim, which, while i agree was not the overarching reason as to why we lynched HD did seal his fate i feel. but yeah i mean fate shouldn't claim unless we definitively decide on him as a lynch

HD being mafia makes me look better considering that he pressured me from the very beginning for a very long time, and under the assumption that i don't think things out (which is not entirely untrue) buddying seems like an unlikely scenario. (also that setting up the scenario that HD found me suspicious would have brought way much more attention to me than necessary, i mean, it would have been a lot safer if HD just called me out for a random reason instead of me doing something "not thought out" for the purpose that HD could buddy me).

Mithril it's less likely that spiffy was inspected and more likely that that lynch made him look really good, i honestly pegged him as most likely to get killed last night anyways. unless spiffy is the courier i don't think there's a lot to read into there

 

[sunny004]

Since I've subbed in, I've always had trouble contributing. Why? Most of the time I was/still am unavailable. I have exams starting tomorrow, which will limit my schedule more.

More Cowbell I'd like a sub, please. If all of them are unavailable I probably could still check in from time to time, but I don't have the time to look over the past 40 pages for quotes/info to contribute.

Sorry!

 

[Fatecrashers]

lol new NOC strat: sub out to throw off the scent

=/

 

[More Cowbell]

Spiffy Feel free to post your night results (or make them up if you want to)

sunny004 I'll be on the look-out for a sub, but right now I don't have anyone on standby. Same goes for rssp1 by the way; he was active D1, but dropped off massively after that. As always, anyone who knows anyone who can sub in, please let me know.

 

[Amianki]

Amianki what was HD's day 1 towntell?

Him softing the power role. I'd expect scum on the chopping block to outright claim one to either give people cold feet towards the wagon or at minimum draw out an existing power role. The fact that he opted out of this showed a frustrated town mindset rather than a frustrated scum mindset.

The reason I asked about his experience and whether scum had daytalk was because it's more of a towntell if he's experienced or if it's likely someone experienced is on his team with day chat.

 

[Spiffy]

You were attacked by the Legion tonight, but with your lucky streak you managed to survive the attack. Your luck has run out now, though, so if the Legion attempts to kill you during another night you will not survive.

My night results. Take them as you will. It's worth noting that my role says I'll only survive the first kill placed on me by Cesar's Legion. I'm assuming this means that if the Courier can kill it would have hit through my BPV.

vonFiedler I don't get how you want to look into the Cancerous wagon yesterday but anything revealed by the Haunted Diamond wagon "shouldn't mean anything"? Please explain. I think a mafia flip is way more revealing than a town flip and things like targets and buddiers of HD should be looked into.

I mean yeah I could be the Courier just like anyone else could be the Courier? Like I said, I just threw the scenario of why they killed me as a possibility, and was recently proven wrong about it. Stop focusing on something so trivial. Nothing to really respond to in your hypothetical.

But this is such a well established "mistake" that you have gotten on my ass multiple times for calling it a lie when it was "only a mistake". But if it is "only a mistake", then why are you still lying about it? ButteredToast, did you ever actually point this out or is Spiffy making that up too?

I've said probably five times now that the mistake I made doesn't mean the entire connection was moot, especially when the link continues into Day 2. For the record here is what ButteredToast said regarding the Fate and HD connection:

]Also, anyone find it funny that again HD jumps on the Fatecrashers bandwagon on Day 2 as well? Fatecrashers votes for Pokeguy on post #727 and only redacts because of a bandwagon flood. Then on post #765 after Fate's argument is kind of over, here comes freaking HD on a post taking about lynching Pokeguy.

Seriously. Here is more connection between the two. Third person in a row. Maybe it's coincidence or maybe they're just a trash mafia team that can't get their shit together even after being called out on it. But it's weird as hell.

BT also quoted this:

but looking at haunted's response to buttered, it seems he admits that the power role claim was a desperate self preservation tactic, and his unwillingness to confirm today is about confusing the mafia, that's how i read his responses anyway

which I feel could be Fate trying to get the heat off his teammate. I don't get how people can't see a connection lol.

A Fatecrashers lynch still seems like nonsense to me. It hinges on assertions that never held water in the first place, and has been strangely tunneled by someone who might not be anti-village, but certainly might not be pro-village either.

Lol at this. By this logic everyone in the game should be ignored because they too might not be anti-village and might not be pro-village.

Fatecrashers should claim now there's no reason not to. If anything, HD's flip should prove how important it is that softclaims don't give someone a free pass. Fate seems more willing to follow through than HD but should still claim regardless.

I agree with several people that Amianki has kind of gone overlooked throughout this game and the HD flip doesn't make him look great so
Unvote Fatecrashers for now
Vote Amianki

sunny004 it's frustrating that you can take five minutes out of your busy schedule to ask for a sub and can't even answer everyone's questions about you. Please do so.