I'm trying to either get Odd Ghost back into the game or to have a sub take his place, I hope this'll be solved asap.
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2023 Smog Awards!
NOC Fallout New Vegas NOC [GAME OVER - Wastelanders Win]
- Thread starter More Cowbell
- Start date
- Status
So Odd Ghost clearly isn't PR.
Then what? Can we agree that the PR clearly isn't village, as a villager would have no reason to spread deceit like this?
And what does that mean? Do both teams have a hooker?
I have a crazy theory and no real way to get the point across. So I know this is unorthodox for me, but if their is a village hooker, I BEG you to come forward and tell me who you hooked on N2. If it is one of two people, I can give you guys the remaining two members of the mafia. If not, then at least we aren't as hopelessly fucked as I feel we are. But then, we still need some targets and if Odd Ghost subs we are kind of hosed on that front.
I'd like to see detailed reads from Mithril Fatecrashers @Pokeguy. I'll give mine tomorrow, I need to get ready for work atm.
Then what? Can we agree that the PR clearly isn't village, as a villager would have no reason to spread deceit like this?
And what does that mean? Do both teams have a hooker?
I have a crazy theory and no real way to get the point across. So I know this is unorthodox for me, but if their is a village hooker, I BEG you to come forward and tell me who you hooked on N2. If it is one of two people, I can give you guys the remaining two members of the mafia. If not, then at least we aren't as hopelessly fucked as I feel we are. But then, we still need some targets and if Odd Ghost subs we are kind of hosed on that front.
I'd like to see detailed reads from Mithril Fatecrashers @Pokeguy. I'll give mine tomorrow, I need to get ready for work atm.
Umm... Odd Ghost can still be the PR. Usually scum send in their actions as a team, I can only assume it's the same for this game. I don't see why active members of the team couldn't submit a post restriction in Odd Ghost's stead. Just felt a need to point this out lol.
Why would they send it in with his mannerisms?
Honestly, Odd Ghost seems 100% clean. No villager would send in that PR (and if they did, now is the time to speak up). No mafia teammate would. It seems like the mafia completely fucked this PR up.
The same reason they would send it in with his mannerisms if he's town? For confusion! His alignment really doesn't change anything.
No, he's really not? I don't understand where you're going with this...
I'm honestly I'm not even sure where this role speculation is really going. We should either mass claim or get back to focusing on player behavior/voting patterns/actual facts instead of speculation that isn't really leading us anywhere except to move us away from the real things we should be talking about.
if i have time i'm going to try and break down how I feel about the game with the above thought here in mind (i.e. regardless of any role spec)
if i have time i'm going to try and break down how I feel about the game with the above thought here in mind (i.e. regardless of any role spec)
You're the only mafia who might think that's a good idea. And if you are mafia, I pity your last teammate.
Yeah, you're in.
Please read through the thread and share your thoughts. You have 2 hours, because I don't feel like messing around and since this day is only 72 hours we've wasted too much time already, like Jalmont said. You are the most likely lynch target right now, Odd Ghost, so be useful!
Wait, we seriously only have 2 hours left? Fuck.
Hosts, could we get an extension for 24 hours (given my absence)? :c
I am thinking about game balance right now but I'm on a shitty tablet with shitty wifi so this is going to be brutal af to type
No, but we've got just over a day and a half left I think. We need time to discuss, so 2 hours. Go.
Ok, that's fine :p. Just do it ASAP.
No deadline is set yet, but right now it'll be approx. 40 hours until deadline.
Watcher + Doctoor isn't a broken combination with or without a mafia hooker...
...and mafia hookers are fairly common here.
Doctor + Watcher is a broken combination. It allows the two power roles to effectively live forever. The Doctor protects the Watcher who watches the Doctor. If scum decide to end that cycle, they lose one of their members (the one who visits killing the Doctor that the Watcher will then out the next day).
Ah, I'm not familiar with your site culture or how you guys run games around here. My mistake on the Mafia Hooker. I am here and reading, I will address your big post, Celever, and make some general comments about how I feel. But first, why are you voting me specifically? At a glance, that vote does not seem logical from the way you structured your post.
Ah, I'm not familiar with your site culture or how you guys run games around here. My mistake on the Mafia Hooker. I am here and reading, I will address your big post, Celever, and make some general comments about how I feel. But first, why are you voting me specifically? At a glance, that vote does not seem logical from the way you structured your post.
You don't really say anything substantial at all for your scum read on me, other than that I just seem scummy.
Yet, you go on to vote me, over the "least townie player" on your list. That seems arbitrary. Not to mention, your read on Mithril is very wishy washy. You say that his play alone has been solid, consistent and townie, yet because he hasn't done anything spectacular (what is spectacular to you) he is your "least townie player".
I find a lot of what you say in this big post to be talking out of your butt. I'm only not scum reading you for it because as scum you would have almost 0 reason to post something substantial like that.
von's reasoning that the hosts subbed me in due to a panicky mafia teammate is so beyond reasonable logic it lands on the moon.
It worries you that people bandwagoned sunny, yet you want to lynch the person who was pretty much the only one against that lynch? Okay.
How does Serious Banana being a WATCHER and tunneling Sunny make any sense? If Serious Banana had seen Sunny visit the dead person, that is effectively a guilty and should have been claimed/voted immediately for that. Why make assumptions like that?
This is why I am confused. You guys are making statements like this (and about the inspector, hooker, PR maker, which incidentally is a horrible role and should be DEFCON 5'd out of your site culture but meh) that seem to say there is a cookie cutter amount of roles and what those roles are in all of your games.
Still not understanding why you are so sure that a doctor is in this setup. This type of behavior is actually feeding into my massive paranoia about Spiffy. Coming away from the Bulletproof claim, I suspected that Spiffy or his teammate may have been blocked doing the nightkill that night (either by the hooker or the Doctor) and he preemptively claimed Bulletproof to draw suspicion away from why the nightkill was missing and in the same breath give Spiffy some towncred. Saying things like this only add legitimacy to that hypothesis.
Anyway, Spiffy, why do you think you have that specific Post Restriction? Seems an odd thing to give, especially if the Post Restriction giver is mafia aligned.
von's big post shares a lot of the same paranoia/suspicions that I have about Spiffy. More eloquently said I think.
I still don't understand why you all are putting so much faith into a Watcher going after Sunny. It is poor play to not out a guilty before day ends.
I don't share the same sentiment about Spiffy and Jalmont though. I think Jalmont is probably village. He is being cheeky as fuck though, which is cause for concern.
I don't agree with this at all. You guys put way too little stock into scumhunting and day play by townies and rely too much on power roles.
You guys are making a lot of assumptions. Who says that the Post Restriction giver has to target someone every night? If the mafia know that a kill is missing via interaction from another power role, it would be good (although high risk) to stop using their Post Restriction. This allows them to create plausible deniability around their members on who made a nightkill, who is the Post Restriction giver, etc.
Von is saying a lot of the same things I am feeling. He is my strongest town read currently.
This is really meta and a great catch. Fatecrashers strong town read now. Bravo to the scum trying to do that to me though.
+1. That is my thought of it.
Not necessarily, could be village hooker looking for the mafia killer as the hooker was obviously not blocking kills by blocking the post restriction giver (if that is actually what happened). That said, the fact that no one else has gotten that message is weird. I don't think it is real. I think a villager hooker is much more probable than a mafia hooker.
I'm not the Post Restriction Giver. I do think I am being framed though.
Didn't mean to bold all of that, but I don't know how to undo it. Oh well.
I dislike this post from Celever immensely. It reads fake as fuck with the tacked on punctuation on the "trivial things" and "though". I also don't get why me not posting would make Celever want to move his vote away from me. Different strokes for different folks I guess?
This post rang very town to me.
How does that make sense? You're really trying hard to undermine von's efforts to get his head around the game.
Ok. So looking at the game again...
Von
Fatecrashers
My two strongest town reads. Although slight hesitation on Fate because he might have pointed out the spelling of PokeNGuy to get the village on that bait, but I doubt it. Too obvious and scummy once I flip as village. Anyway, that leaves at least 2 scum in 5 names. That is pretty good odds for us. (I think there is only 3 sum total in this game, would be too many if it was more than that + possibility of the Third Party being scum).
Mithril
Celever
Jalmont
PokeguyNXB
Spiffy
I'm so ambivalent about all of these people. Early reads would have most of these people as village except for Poke and Mithril. Looking at Mithril's most recent posts, I feel that he slightly village for talking to Celever about that massive reads list.
Celever *looks* town for that massive reads list at a time when I think the mafia would be lurking and generally not trying to participate. But Celever's posts all *feel* fake and not genuine.
Spiffy I felt had a strong early game and thought was definitely village, but I'm not entirely sure anymore, especially with the Hooker + no kill + Post Restriction shenanigans.
PokeNGuy I still think has a solid chance of being mafia, given his outward uselessness, especially in the early game.
Jalmont I think is being cheeky but I don't know if that is scum motivated or not. I felt he was town early on but my read on that is weakening. I don't think he would be this openly antagonistic as mafia.
Of the 5 people I just mentioned, what are your reads on each other?
odd ghost, the thing about smogon noc is that this site is based more around non-noc mafia games, which means that the few NOC games are inevitably slanted towards that genre of game. so the role set becomes pretty non-standard compared to what is more or less generally accepted elsewhere (i mean, you can c/p your role pm...where else can you do that ???) this is also i'm not so sure role speculation does us any good. there really isn't an accepted standard as to what goes in a smogon noc, and so it basically becomes, "how would the host set this game up" which there isn't a lot of background on. idk, there's some relevant results but overall i'm still concerned as to the lack of actual focus on the way people have played (i fully recognize i am responsible for this too, but i am still thinking regarding this)
a lot of what you said sounds good odd ghost but if you want to focus on scumhunting I'm a little confused as you didn't give any mafia reads? i realize all those things could be taken as town, but what about mafia reads? in particular, i would like to know how you feel about von's behavior in terms of reactions and such? (ie overreaction to me on d2, continued insistence over the course of the game on focusing spiffy, today making a big deal over taking credit of HD's lynch and other inconsistent things?)
i mean, if we put "way too little stock on scumhunting" what exactly are you doing right now? you aren't scumhunting, you're townhunting? i mean, you don't really have any close mafia reads based on scumhunting other than celever (you put spiffy in the ?? category based on...role spec? i dunno man, i feel like the post came off as really inconsistent for me
unvote
a lot of what you said sounds good odd ghost but if you want to focus on scumhunting I'm a little confused as you didn't give any mafia reads? i realize all those things could be taken as town, but what about mafia reads? in particular, i would like to know how you feel about von's behavior in terms of reactions and such? (ie overreaction to me on d2, continued insistence over the course of the game on focusing spiffy, today making a big deal over taking credit of HD's lynch and other inconsistent things?)
i mean, if we put "way too little stock on scumhunting" what exactly are you doing right now? you aren't scumhunting, you're townhunting? i mean, you don't really have any close mafia reads based on scumhunting other than celever (you put spiffy in the ?? category based on...role spec? i dunno man, i feel like the post came off as really inconsistent for me
unvote
"PokeNGuy is always right" that this is a WALL OF TEXT WOOOOOOO
Second, if I am lying about being a BPV here are the only possible explanations for the lack of a kill that night given what we know:
1.) The doctor protected the mafia's target. In this case, it is confirmed that the doctor would receive a notification that they had successfully blocked a kill, meaning my BPV claim is bullshit. If this happened the doctor should have said so by now. Also I don't think watcher + doctor is that broken if the mafia has a hooker like they seem to because mafia can just hook the doctor and kill the watcher.
2.) The mafia idled their kill. This is possible but EXTREMELY improbable. Coming off of the HD flip I was looking pretty good given that I antagonized him for like all of Day 1 and continued pestering him about claiming on Day 2. It's ridiculous to think that the mafia would pass on a shot at removing a village power role for me to try some gambit when I'm really not in any danger in the first place.
3.) The kill was hooked by the village hooker. This is honestly the only thing that should be considered which is why...
WE SHOULD ALL MASS CLAIM
Mass claiming will give us the most information in deciding who to lynch with little risk.
If we don't mass claim to keep our power roles hidden: There are eight players left. I'd bet my house that there are two mafia left. If Fate and myself are telling the truth, then there are four villagers that the mafia possibly don't know about. If we mislynch one of those four, then there are only three possibilities for mafia to choose from if their going for a power role (assuming there's only one? We could even have more than one left!). This is not including the possibility that Haunted Diamond inspected one of these players, limiting their options even more! This is worst case scenario for us but even best case scenario the mafia have a 1 in 3 shot of hitting a power role if we even have one left.
If we mass claim here's all the great stuff that can happen!
- A village hooker claims either cleaning me or condemning me; either is welcome in the village's perspective.
- A village hooker does not come forward, cleaning me.
- Other power roles come forward, and can share their results for us to analyze (if an info role) or can be proven (like a mayor) adding another clean villager to our ranks.
- Worst case scenario, we have no power role claims and everyone claims vanilla. If this is the case we can analyze the role PMs for mistakes and check the wiki to see which role names would definitely be on the village. If this happens we can just go back to scumhunting.
I am no longer tolerating vonFiedler or Celever or anyone saying that mass claiming is stupid because it fucking isn't. Mass claiming only puts mafia in the hot seat. Anyone trying to leave the game ambiguous is extremely suspicious in my eyes, and as I have outlined above there are many positives and practically no negatives to mass claiming. We're at a point in the game where we don't really have any leads, and I trust the bountiful information we would get from mass claiming over trying to aimlessly scumhunt some more which has proven to not be our strong suit here at Smogon. Mithril Odd Ghost vonFiedler Fatecrashers Celever PokeguyNXB Jalmont thoughts on this now. Though if you say we shouldn't mass claim I'll probably just lynch you.
Anyway more stuff...
Side note do you know More Cowbell irl? The way he said "I'll try to get Odd Ghost back in the game" made me think so. Please confirm.
Some extremely shallow reads to end this post because I'm tired:
Celever - Eh all of his posts seem like his usual self to me. I would say noob town but he's tough to read. His adamant dislike of the HD lynch hours before he flipped scum has me thinking he's village. Annoyingly against the mass claim but that could be attributed to him being Celever.
Jalmont - Another tough one for me. He seems to think a lot like me (like wanting a mass claim) which is a positive because I know my thoughts are coming from a town perspective. Other than that he came off pretty null after the HD flip so I don't really think there's much to go off of.
Mithril - From what I remember Mithril subbed in and immediately called for HD's head for the remainder of Day 2 so that's very townie. Also seemingly targeted by the mafia hooker.
rssp1/Odd Ghost - rssp1 didn't look too great coming off the HD lynch. He didn't support it but not in an overt way like Celever did. I have stated my opinion on Odd Ghost throughout this post mostly. Leaning scum.
PokeguyNXB - was the alternative lynch to Haunted Diamond and who HD was pushing a lot of Day 2 so seems town to me.
Fatecrashers - I always thought he was scummy before he claimed but I really don't see the mafia having an announcer. Maybe I'll check the wiki later to see if the Legion would have someone who could possibly be announcer? But town for now.
vonFiedler - Biggest scum read at the moment. I still think there's something fishy about him failing to mention me at all last day to lynch sunny instead. He seems to want to leave the game open and ambiguous which is also a negative, and keeps shoving it in our faces that he was a champion of the HD lynch when that situation isn't even relevant to the discussion. He is also a noob.
Hopefully these reads will happily coexist with full role PM claims from everyone so we are all as informed as possible when deciding the lynch. :)
This is arbitrary and seems like you slipped this in to try and get townie cred. Scum can easily recognize that a villager is getting mislynched and be like "omg no i am so against this lynch yadayadayada" which is like exactly what you did:Odd Ghost said:
I get that the day was really inactive as a whole so this post isn't scummy on its on but the fact that you're now trying to cite it and act like that you should be pardoned because of it is ridiculous. Getting some flashbacks from when your scumbuddy von tried the same shit with the Cancerous lynch lol.Odd Ghost said:
I have always been an advocate of the whole "if an info role catches guaranteed scum they should come forward immediately" club but some players in this game (like your solid townread von!!!) are of the mindset that even if they catch scum they should only tunnel them really hard but not outright claim which only muddies the waters and introduces the possibility that the info role will die before they can convey their results. So unfortunately we can't really be sure if Serious Bananas was of that same mindset.Odd Ghost said:
First, I used a doctor in that scenario because Celever used doctor and that was what I was responding to. You can replace that with "power role" and the message remains the same.Odd Ghost said:
Second, if I am lying about being a BPV here are the only possible explanations for the lack of a kill that night given what we know:
1.) The doctor protected the mafia's target. In this case, it is confirmed that the doctor would receive a notification that they had successfully blocked a kill, meaning my BPV claim is bullshit. If this happened the doctor should have said so by now. Also I don't think watcher + doctor is that broken if the mafia has a hooker like they seem to because mafia can just hook the doctor and kill the watcher.
2.) The mafia idled their kill. This is possible but EXTREMELY improbable. Coming off of the HD flip I was looking pretty good given that I antagonized him for like all of Day 1 and continued pestering him about claiming on Day 2. It's ridiculous to think that the mafia would pass on a shot at removing a village power role for me to try some gambit when I'm really not in any danger in the first place.
3.) The kill was hooked by the village hooker. This is honestly the only thing that should be considered which is why...
WE SHOULD ALL MASS CLAIM
Mass claiming will give us the most information in deciding who to lynch with little risk.
If we don't mass claim to keep our power roles hidden: There are eight players left. I'd bet my house that there are two mafia left. If Fate and myself are telling the truth, then there are four villagers that the mafia possibly don't know about. If we mislynch one of those four, then there are only three possibilities for mafia to choose from if their going for a power role (assuming there's only one? We could even have more than one left!). This is not including the possibility that Haunted Diamond inspected one of these players, limiting their options even more! This is worst case scenario for us but even best case scenario the mafia have a 1 in 3 shot of hitting a power role if we even have one left.
If we mass claim here's all the great stuff that can happen!
- A village hooker claims either cleaning me or condemning me; either is welcome in the village's perspective.
- A village hooker does not come forward, cleaning me.
- Other power roles come forward, and can share their results for us to analyze (if an info role) or can be proven (like a mayor) adding another clean villager to our ranks.
- Worst case scenario, we have no power role claims and everyone claims vanilla. If this is the case we can analyze the role PMs for mistakes and check the wiki to see which role names would definitely be on the village. If this happens we can just go back to scumhunting.
I am no longer tolerating vonFiedler or Celever or anyone saying that mass claiming is stupid because it fucking isn't. Mass claiming only puts mafia in the hot seat. Anyone trying to leave the game ambiguous is extremely suspicious in my eyes, and as I have outlined above there are many positives and practically no negatives to mass claiming. We're at a point in the game where we don't really have any leads, and I trust the bountiful information we would get from mass claiming over trying to aimlessly scumhunt some more which has proven to not be our strong suit here at Smogon. Mithril Odd Ghost vonFiedler Fatecrashers Celever PokeguyNXB Jalmont thoughts on this now. Though if you say we shouldn't mass claim I'll probably just lynch you.
Anyway more stuff...
Pretty useless to speculate about the post restriction. You mentioning this seems to me like you want to make it well known that you could have been framed, when there's no way we could really know either way.Odd Ghost said:
I don't get how this skews you either way in terms of Fatecrashers. Mafia can point this out just as easily as village can. Again you subtly emphasize the whole possibility that you've been framed. Interesting!Odd Ghost said:
Side note do you know More Cowbell irl? The way he said "I'll try to get Odd Ghost back in the game" made me think so. Please confirm.
Some extremely shallow reads to end this post because I'm tired:
Celever - Eh all of his posts seem like his usual self to me. I would say noob town but he's tough to read. His adamant dislike of the HD lynch hours before he flipped scum has me thinking he's village. Annoyingly against the mass claim but that could be attributed to him being Celever.
Jalmont - Another tough one for me. He seems to think a lot like me (like wanting a mass claim) which is a positive because I know my thoughts are coming from a town perspective. Other than that he came off pretty null after the HD flip so I don't really think there's much to go off of.
Mithril - From what I remember Mithril subbed in and immediately called for HD's head for the remainder of Day 2 so that's very townie. Also seemingly targeted by the mafia hooker.
rssp1/Odd Ghost - rssp1 didn't look too great coming off the HD lynch. He didn't support it but not in an overt way like Celever did. I have stated my opinion on Odd Ghost throughout this post mostly. Leaning scum.
PokeguyNXB - was the alternative lynch to Haunted Diamond and who HD was pushing a lot of Day 2 so seems town to me.
Fatecrashers - I always thought he was scummy before he claimed but I really don't see the mafia having an announcer. Maybe I'll check the wiki later to see if the Legion would have someone who could possibly be announcer? But town for now.
vonFiedler - Biggest scum read at the moment. I still think there's something fishy about him failing to mention me at all last day to lynch sunny instead. He seems to want to leave the game open and ambiguous which is also a negative, and keeps shoving it in our faces that he was a champion of the HD lynch when that situation isn't even relevant to the discussion. He is also a noob.
Hopefully these reads will happily coexist with full role PM claims from everyone so we are all as informed as possible when deciding the lynch. :)
- Status