Yo acidphoenix i see you creeping the thread I want you to bury the person you think is mafia the most and give the most brutal scathing analysis you can on why you think they're mafia
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NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.
- Thread starter The Diabolic Gift
- Start date
- Status
Ya I was going to make an endgame post for whatever villagers there are left after tonight to refer back to as to how to play this, as well as point out to the mafia the obvious: no matter what happens today, both mafias ought to be aiming the other mafia tonight.
If it's a mislynch, then obviously from a 4/2/2 situation the immediate priority for both mafias is to aim the other. A 4/1/1 isn't that horrible as a worst-case scenario, while 3/2/1 is basically game over for the 1 mafia; odds are good that if one of the mafia on the '2' faction will just claim to be the weaker mafia if getting lynched, which will necessitate the '1' counterclaiming it and at best being a kingmaker (or else just losing instantly basically). In other words, if village mislynches both mafias should kill whoever they feel is the strongest likelihood of being on the other mafia.
If us villagers actually get our shit together and lynch a member of, let's say, mafia A, then it's still fairly obvious. If both mafias kill a villager, it becomes the 3/2/1 which is just as horrible for the '1' mafia as it was in the mislynch case. If it's 4/1/1 that's, again, not a terrible situation for the mafia. Obviously the 2 mafia, however, will want to hit the '1' mafia, because 4/2 is basically a guaranteed win barring some miraculous step up in play from this village.
So ya, that's my spiel to the mafias: kill the other one tonight, regardless of what happens.
For the villagers, if the mafias are bad and kill villagers tonight, then if it's 3/2/1 just demand the '1' mafia step up and claim honestly. If they don't and get lynched its GG, and more or less GG if we mislynch. If it's 2/2/2 somehow then lynch a mafia (shouldn't be hard, at that point a villager will have a 4/5 chance of hitting mafia by blindly throwing darts X_X), and hopefully force them to kill each other. I have no clue what happens in case the mafias target each other or if there are priorities, would The Diabolic Gift answer questions about this or no?
In any case, I think DLE is actually right. The village can't solo win this game without crossfire regardless, and I think that the village's best chance will be to identify the mafia in even the worst case scenario (not to mention let the mafia know which is on the OTHER mafia; this is arguably just as important given the need for crossfire). I still think DLE has been way off his play this game but he's absolutely right about the best strategy for the village, the question is really this, then: what lynch will provide the most information to both the village AND the mafias about who is who?
If I missed something feel free to point it out but I'm pretty sure that we have been thinking about this lynch the wrong way. If I had to choose between a mislynch that revealed who everyone in the game was publicly vs a scumlynch that kept everyone in the dark, I'm pretty sure I'd choose the mislynch option at this point since, again, the village doesn't have the numbers to solo win, and so is going to have to win via diplomacy and forward thinking to some extent.
Of course, even after all this, I still think a DLE lynch has it's merits. If DLE is somehow town I think that might be just about the only thing that would out a jumpluff scumteam at this point (barring the other mafia killing obviously). That being said, I'm warming to a U-Turn Out lynch. I'd like him to post regarding both all the people who think he is mafia/scummy (though frankly it's based mostly on Walrein's play, which is kinda hard to address I'd guess) as well as whether he agrees with my prognosis for this lynch (outside of the determination to lynch him, obviously). Who do you think are the best lynches? U-Turn Out
If it's a mislynch, then obviously from a 4/2/2 situation the immediate priority for both mafias is to aim the other. A 4/1/1 isn't that horrible as a worst-case scenario, while 3/2/1 is basically game over for the 1 mafia; odds are good that if one of the mafia on the '2' faction will just claim to be the weaker mafia if getting lynched, which will necessitate the '1' counterclaiming it and at best being a kingmaker (or else just losing instantly basically). In other words, if village mislynches both mafias should kill whoever they feel is the strongest likelihood of being on the other mafia.
If us villagers actually get our shit together and lynch a member of, let's say, mafia A, then it's still fairly obvious. If both mafias kill a villager, it becomes the 3/2/1 which is just as horrible for the '1' mafia as it was in the mislynch case. If it's 4/1/1 that's, again, not a terrible situation for the mafia. Obviously the 2 mafia, however, will want to hit the '1' mafia, because 4/2 is basically a guaranteed win barring some miraculous step up in play from this village.
So ya, that's my spiel to the mafias: kill the other one tonight, regardless of what happens.
For the villagers, if the mafias are bad and kill villagers tonight, then if it's 3/2/1 just demand the '1' mafia step up and claim honestly. If they don't and get lynched its GG, and more or less GG if we mislynch. If it's 2/2/2 somehow then lynch a mafia (shouldn't be hard, at that point a villager will have a 4/5 chance of hitting mafia by blindly throwing darts X_X), and hopefully force them to kill each other. I have no clue what happens in case the mafias target each other or if there are priorities, would The Diabolic Gift answer questions about this or no?
In any case, I think DLE is actually right. The village can't solo win this game without crossfire regardless, and I think that the village's best chance will be to identify the mafia in even the worst case scenario (not to mention let the mafia know which is on the OTHER mafia; this is arguably just as important given the need for crossfire). I still think DLE has been way off his play this game but he's absolutely right about the best strategy for the village, the question is really this, then: what lynch will provide the most information to both the village AND the mafias about who is who?
If I missed something feel free to point it out but I'm pretty sure that we have been thinking about this lynch the wrong way. If I had to choose between a mislynch that revealed who everyone in the game was publicly vs a scumlynch that kept everyone in the dark, I'm pretty sure I'd choose the mislynch option at this point since, again, the village doesn't have the numbers to solo win, and so is going to have to win via diplomacy and forward thinking to some extent.
Of course, even after all this, I still think a DLE lynch has it's merits. If DLE is somehow town I think that might be just about the only thing that would out a jumpluff scumteam at this point (barring the other mafia killing obviously). That being said, I'm warming to a U-Turn Out lynch. I'd like him to post regarding both all the people who think he is mafia/scummy (though frankly it's based mostly on Walrein's play, which is kinda hard to address I'd guess) as well as whether he agrees with my prognosis for this lynch (outside of the determination to lynch him, obviously). Who do you think are the best lynches? U-Turn Out
Hi whats up its me I had two hours of sleep. acidphoenix was in the thread 12 hours ago fyi when I made my previous post.
Celever
UncleSam / Yeti
As for the question about whether this is a coverup for me being subbed in hamfistedly for Yeti's hypothetical scum partner, all I have to say to that is that both would be ridiculous errors by the host, we know this host makes oversights, and the Cancerous sub was specifically called for by Celever because The Diabolic Gift forgot to sub Cancerous out along with Walrein, so which one of the possible scum you floated do you think is my partner, Yeti or Celever? I'm not afraid of this because both Yeti and I are playing transparently and openly and everything else degenerates into WIFOM. The only person who has anything potentially to be afraid of from my playstyle wrt. Yeti is Yeti herself, and she doesn't seem concerned that I'm going to drag her down with me as scum. I buy the idea she thought your post was pedantry and that deflecting from other users onto us is bullshit, but I don't see a problem from town!Sam PoV with discussing the implicit connection Yeti and I share as long as it is done accurately.
Let's abstract, I'm bored. In that case, where Yeti is town and I am scum, from nearly everyone else's PoV my partner would probably be U-Turn Out as Da Letter El suggested. Da Letter El becomes much townier with a remaining possibility of him and an inactive as scumteam. I do not believe UncleSam and Da Letter El are on the same team, both generally and in this specific scenario where I am scum. UncleSam and acidphoenix could be the second scumteam but I'm inclined to believe US that he didn't kill Spiffy and US is one user I do not see that ButteredToast kill coming from. I would anticipate a kill on an experienced player or UltrasPlot. I think this scenario is shit unless DLE is also scum (either of Walrein and DLE could've been either kill with evidence pointing towards both), which is fine by US but I doubt everyone else can agree both of us are.
Why does subbing matter, btw, when uninvested scum (such as Hannahh, probably) have probably peaced to avoid the pressure to keep up the town act? Because right now the mafias are in an unexpectedly stronger position than they should be due to Gale getting modkilled, and at least one user feels they are getting away with doing nothing (emphasis on feels).
I'll respond to the UltrasPlot stuff later, I'm basically dead pluff walking irl (and have to get in paperwork) and would like to start to addressing DLE.
Da Letter El
I would like to hear on the lynch from U-Turn Out and hear from The Diabolic Gift on whether we're going to get subs or not.
Celever
This is a fair response, I was excessively tunnelling on your tone and habit of picking on acidphoenix as well as Gale. But you do also go after Sam. You were indeed active today just markedly less active, but I suppose that is to be expected with today's lesser activity. At the point I wrote it though you were temp. MIA which was important because my most mixed read is you.
Wouldn't know! I never play NOC with you. But the post I'm quoting is quite defensive for what largely comprised a set of ambivalent remarks about you and a desire to see you post more. Not rhetorically, just straight up very eager to defend yourself from what largely amounts to a few vague comments. I suppose I would in your position too, since you are a popular moderate scumread. I'll probably reread your posts when I've done my math homework and sent in my uni scholarship shit and maybe gotten more sleep.
Precisely, nearly everyone in the game at the time of writing saw you both as scum. I wouldn't say you were the player who went most aggressively after acidphoenix but there's been a fairly consistent presence against him and the positions you are both in puts you in an interesting situation where you have a you-specific vested interest in pushing the lynch onto acidphoenix and vice versa.
Sardonic rhetoric, sorry, it's kinda par for the course for me, but by imitation I more mean a very similar playstyle.
Yes and no? I mean I obviously agree with you with my own stated comments on why I would prefer to lynch the people in the order I do that there is a degree of optimisation to be done and discussed. However I don't agree with prioritising the flip but instead reliably hitting scum. They aren't going to claim in the event of a mislynch but they will have a lot of control if both kills go through and will be easily able to hijack any votes placed. Just requires one fuckup, and we have a lot of inactive users and I don't buy that all of them are scum (probably 1-2 tho). Also I didn't just call him out for suggesting we lynch by the flip but suggesting we lynch for a flip he admitted himself wouldn't yield solid information in 100% of circumstances in a way that suggested secondary aggression onto me in a way he wasn't daring to commit to (something I pointed out in my other post about DLE, that the framing of me as U-Turn Out's partner seems like, since I do believe U-Turn Out has a good chance of being scum, a way of building up a case on lynching me, a lynch he would probably love to happen but clearly cannot instigate right now). Bolded because that's relevant to both Celever and Da Letter El.
UncleSam / Yeti
I agree that this is solid and obvious logic, actually, and I've bothered to do exactly zero distancing of myself from Yeti because of the stupid situation both of us have been placed into by the mistakes of the host and the tension that places on my desire to play the game out ethically. The logic actually works a bit like a material inference though in that you can read a lot more from one person's posts than the other about the validity of the conclusion. My point being that Yeti and I are of course going to think differently about being linked. I am the most threatening person to Yeti because of our soulbinding, regardless of her alliance, but our sub only confirms us in the event Yeti tried to pull me in the game for her scum partner Cancerous. However I think you will find almost nobody except Da Letter El seriously thinks I'm scum, and he thinks U-Turn Out is my partner, sooo I personally find this neither threatening nor likely to be compelling (as you pointed this out, suggesting we are the most viable lynch targets these days is not very realistic).
As for the question about whether this is a coverup for me being subbed in hamfistedly for Yeti's hypothetical scum partner, all I have to say to that is that both would be ridiculous errors by the host, we know this host makes oversights, and the Cancerous sub was specifically called for by Celever because The Diabolic Gift forgot to sub Cancerous out along with Walrein, so which one of the possible scum you floated do you think is my partner, Yeti or Celever? I'm not afraid of this because both Yeti and I are playing transparently and openly and everything else degenerates into WIFOM. The only person who has anything potentially to be afraid of from my playstyle wrt. Yeti is Yeti herself, and she doesn't seem concerned that I'm going to drag her down with me as scum. I buy the idea she thought your post was pedantry and that deflecting from other users onto us is bullshit, but I don't see a problem from town!Sam PoV with discussing the implicit connection Yeti and I share as long as it is done accurately.
Owned. Its okay it was all aimed at different users, just read their responses to me.
I never talk about Yeti's alliance explicitly except as it pertains to my own because of The Diabolic Gift. I realise this is not a good position to have where we have an active poster refusing entirely to comment on another active poster, but there is simply nothing warranting talking about it in a way that could possibly be construed as explicit communication of OC information. I wrote above that I do think this is a fair assumption except for the case where I am scum and Yeti is not (literally, a material inference).
Let's abstract, I'm bored. In that case, where Yeti is town and I am scum, from nearly everyone else's PoV my partner would probably be U-Turn Out as Da Letter El suggested. Da Letter El becomes much townier with a remaining possibility of him and an inactive as scumteam. I do not believe UncleSam and Da Letter El are on the same team, both generally and in this specific scenario where I am scum. UncleSam and acidphoenix could be the second scumteam but I'm inclined to believe US that he didn't kill Spiffy and US is one user I do not see that ButteredToast kill coming from. I would anticipate a kill on an experienced player or UltrasPlot. I think this scenario is shit unless DLE is also scum (either of Walrein and DLE could've been either kill with evidence pointing towards both), which is fine by US but I doubt everyone else can agree both of us are.
I'm afraid to do anything that could catalyse a bandwagon and end the game without a sub for those two users. Majority is 5, right? Then Yeti and I should never have pressure votes on the same users. I do not feel it is useful for me to stick a vote on acidphoenix who could very easily get bandwagoned in my sleep, and Da Letter El knows I want to lynch him today. (And now you all know too.) acidphoenix has been repeatedly called out and voted and called the bluff, I am positive he is mafia after this day where he has spent apparently all of it in the thread with nothing to say now the attention has slightly shifted, and if I choose to vote him over DLE I will vote him when I mean it. Furthermore, I don't see a point in making empty threats at this point because nobody is likely to cave to them. Declaring intent to lynch serves the same purpose except with the threat of bandwagon, which is a tradeoff I am fine with making since acidphoenix apparently fears nothing and DLE has already made a jumpy play. UltrasPlot is MIA, PokeguyNXB needs to be subbed, I have no strong desire to vote you or Yeti, I am still ruminating on Celever, I do not feel my vote on U-Turn Out will accomplish anything unless that user goes missing because it's a clear empty threat as long as UTO is active right now pending clear scumslip. L-3 is literally me and another user.
I actually cannot agree with this, simply because acidphoenix has a) refused to even ask to sub out despite substantial irl commitments b) apparently maintained activity on Pokémon Showdown! c) he continues to read this thread at least twice daily. To me that suggests acidphoenix sees something to be gained from remaining in this game, whether it's weed brownies from the host or a safe slide to victory as an ambivalently read mafia (or a lynch today, in which case he has given up). But the fact he continues to return to the thread can't only be attributed to tagging IMO, I think acidphoenix is biding his time to see whether the lynch slides from him to DLE. I think, given a dichotomy, the noobtown is PokeguyNXB. PokeguyNXB made a lot of junk excuses but I do attribute a lot of them to his personal repeatedly demonstrated fear of making mistakes and being called out on them, and he did make a couple of efforts to sincerely contribute, what I called him out for was a few moments of insincerity. I am defending PokeguyNXB here explicitly to compare and contrast to acidphoenix's completely unapologetic play. You can read this inversely, in that acidphoenix is just a brazen and defiant villager like HD and Gale as you said and PokeguyNXB is mafia trying to placate us, but the difference was Gale was actively playing (and rather aggressively) and Haunted Diamond actually responded to the lynch on them in a way that is in hindsight very noobtownie, in the defeatist vein. acidphoenix plays NOC mafia live on Pokémon Showdown!, that requires a little more quick thinking than is being exhibited here. acidphoenix has become a very solid lynch for today IMO.
Why does subbing matter, btw, when uninvested scum (such as Hannahh, probably) have probably peaced to avoid the pressure to keep up the town act? Because right now the mafias are in an unexpectedly stronger position than they should be due to Gale getting modkilled, and at least one user feels they are getting away with doing nothing (emphasis on feels).
I'll respond to the UltrasPlot stuff later, I'm basically dead pluff walking irl (and have to get in paperwork) and would like to start to addressing DLE.
Da Letter El
ctrl+f through the post, I already articulated my logic and will not have you twisting it disingenuously.
That's not an argument, it's an observation about U-Turn Out (specifically UTO because of their logically inconsistent reads in what was a rather thoughtful post) and not you. You're twitching pretty fast though, I can give you some of my anticonvulsants if you would like. Topiramate sucks but clonazepam is good shit.
I mean I'd take it seriously if there were a significant drive to lynch me and I were town at 4:5, but I guess you're too cool to care since it's just a NOC and you were using it as a personal sandpit, hm? Maybe you don't need the clonazepam.
I already posted that same logic concerning UncleSam and acidphoenix, I have nothing to say to it except that I posted a very clear read on Walrein and U-Turn Out that made very apparent I felt differently about the two users acontextually and could not commit as clearly to dismissing U-Turn Out as I did Walrein or you, since literally the only things we had to go off on from U-Turn Out that stood out were that townread on you and the same tactic of waffling around pretending to reconsider your stances, which were pretty mild compared to stuff we've seen from UltrasPlot etc. for a new user and relied on the prior context of Walrein's play to read and so they placed UTO as a slightly less confident bet on scum, and you have no excuse except being too cool to give a fuck, that makes you or acidphoenix (who is too nerdy to give a fuck) the better lynch, n'est-ce pas?
I have no problem commenting on that as I did above because I posted a thorough analysis of Walrein and U-Turn Out that articulated my stances, none of which you have bothered to actually comment on. This is twitchy and defensive play that you are pushing onto U-Turn Out because you dislike my play but cannot justify lynching me or UncleSam, which does indeed muddy it.
Then you probably know TIK about as well as I do and I posit my behaviour read is as strong in light of that information, especially if it was a reaction to defensiveness. If it was about Gale then it is less scummy.
I've played with Cancerous probably twice (blah blah brain tumours), I see literally no reason to comment on his prior play except as it pertains to people's perceived relationships that remain consistent between Cancerous's and my play. If there is something you would like me to justify then throw it at me, I don't see anything particularly egregious about anything Cancerous did and so I feel confident playing strongly off my own cards. Also I'm obviously not going to dispute valid reasoning and I find it hilarious that you attack me for that because if I invented something that would somehow make U-Turn Out anything but the optimal lynch from your PoV (since you cannot lynch me or UncleSam and previous stuff articulated about the two of you, lmk if I need to expand) you would attack that too because it's disingenuous. Instead, I dispute the conclusions as unsound and the premises that distort the reasoning (e.g. directly explaining how I felt about U Turn Out every time I was asked in far more detail than was even wanted).
No, you're not, but you're spending a lot more time on me than you are U-Turn Out or Celever with a clear setup for a Day 3 lynch on me in the decently probable event U Turn Out would flip scum. You're also not going to waste your time on a lynch people have already explicitly stated they disagree with when you are already in a precarious position and there exist two users who are other popular lynch targets, you keep making one-note arguments that do not allow for other scenarios or the behaviour of other players, theoryminding from a position of absolute control, but you do not have it and have even admitted to rescinding it in order to let Sam and Celever lead, as Yeti pointed out. People are following either UncleSam or Yeti depending on the team they play for I guess. I think your idea that you could've mislynched Spiffy Day 2 or that he was the most sensible mislynch to go for was categorical nonsense unless you had both Yeti and UncleSam cooperating with you, which I doubt.
Right, because you have to have me partnered with U-Turn Out for your posts to make any sense and the clearest relationship in this game is my apparent reciprocal alliance with Yeti, as discussed.
Did you, like, read that post? It was only a couple of paragraphs so like...
You could've, you know, actually refuted anything I said and justified it as anything but a lynch for the flip. Clearly it's disingenuous to posit that you want it just for the flip since you argued U Turn Out is scum, I argued that it is a suboptimal play when you have multiple scumreads and you have routinely disregarded to comment on whether to prioritise flips or likelihood of hitting scum. I also think it is suspect because of the specific scenarios you laid out from your PoV that UTO is scum and then having jack shit new to add if UTO is town in context of my commentary on your positions with me and Sam.
I applaud you on your original reads on acidphoenix, PokeguyNXB, Celever, and U-Turn Out.
I would like to hear on the lynch from U-Turn Out and hear from The Diabolic Gift on whether we're going to get subs or not.
A note in advance for the peanut gallery: I will be on an all-day hike all Friday and probably not gonna post anything til evening/night my time. If you have anything concerning that day, don't be surprised when I have an almost 24 hour period of silence. A thug's gotta sleep.
Ok I hope this makes you happy. I am going through every single point you have made regarding Walrein and U Turn.
Post #2:
1. This argument is wrong and I've already argued why the logic behind it is wrong in any of my 4 or 5 posts where I accuse Walrein/U Turn of being mafia, especially in the context of it being Walrein. Town players know they are town and try to find mafia. Mafia players know they and their partner are not town and try to convince people they are town. Those posts read as someone who felt obligated to put down reads that he didn't actually believe but were thrown together based on his experiences with mafia and what some behaviors might mean. This is not pro-town to put in effort into overly thought out posts when the post itself doesn't actually have any beliefs in it. Walrein goes straight from calling me town for a bunch of meta reasons to saying "oh I see what is being said about Gale and DLE and can agree with it" in such a way that it doesn't demonstrate a genuine consideration of "If DLE is mafia, then Gale is mafia with him." The argument of "I think DLE is town but if he's mafia, but if he's mafia his partner is Gale" in and of itself is not scummy. The manner in which it occurs is this incredibly contrived throwaway idea of not wanting to clear me as obvtown so he picked one thing in thread to grab onto on why i wasn't his obvtown despite literally everything else in said post outlining how I do not play this way as mafia. If this were an honest read, Walrein would have explained why he felt the interactions between Gale and I were weird, which runs contrary to the premise you started with of Walrein putting in effort; it just shows he wants to appear to have effort. Walrein is a better player as to "not even make sound arguments", the act that he wants to demonstrate EFFORT over CONTENT is inherently a scumtell, not a towntell as you seem to presume. The fact I don't give a shit about whether or not my posts look town is irrelevant. I just care about playing pro-town and finding town and mafia. I've always been better at townreading than scumreading and my 3 obvtown reads have had 2 flip town already.
2. Being defensive over offensive is generally a mafia tell, not a town tell with some moderate exceptions. I don't think this is one of them knowing Walrein's general playstyle.
I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make at the end. Is it that my playstyle doesn't help town as a town player but helps mafia as a mafia player? I think it's pretty clear that giving a bunch of obvtown reads, adding pressure to players through quick questions they'll actually read and have something to comment on the game with, and comes up with unique scumreads like on Spiffy, Walrein, and Cancerous are inherently pro-town behaviors, as they encourage discussion from other players and help to generate reads both for myself and for other people in the game. The scummy things in my behavior are not then pushing my reads on day 2 and not articulating what reads I agreed with on Celever on day 1, both of which I didn't do out of laziness. If you really want to lynch someone for being lazy you DEFINITELY should lynch Walrein/U Turn. Walrein didn't even take the time to be good at being a defensive mafian.
I think it's similarly obvious why appearing to be active helps a mafia player blend in without having to help the town in avoiding obvtowns or give helpful advice on lynch targets.
Post #4 you float "disinterested Walrein" as a potential scum but moderately down on your list. I find the fact you only categorize Walrein (and one you find him anyway and conclude he's town...sort of so as to sort of distance him as a scum read to be interesting but probably reading way too much into things.
U Turn out has now jumped into your scumreads section despite him being much lower than that of pokeguynxb in your earlier post. Explainable in the context of "making teams that make sense" though.
Regardless, here is the first main objection you give to lynching u turn which we're simply 2 ships passing in the night on. My argument is that we have more than enough to lynch him. Your argument is that we do not have enough information to lynch him and thus should let him keep posting. I doubt I am going to be able to convince you how much evidence is needed to be "concrete" but suffice it to say that I feel confident in a U Turn lynch.
Ok so it becomes more concrete that you've thought more about Walrein and think his posts are more inherently scummy than they are not. Slight scumtell for not having this development between "slightly anti-town plays but in a pro-town active package" developed in thread anywhere but a believable enough train to follow.
This is just a restatement of your thoughts in post 7. See above.
And I've stated why U-Turn is the best target. It's perfectly logical to conclude "I don't want to lynch U Turn over you because I think you're scummier" but I've already told you why I've played how I've played and my play itself has been pro-town, so as far as I'm concerned this is a bad point as I'm not scum and I've been pro-town, even if not as proactively pro-town as you seem to want?
Lol I completely missed post 12 until now when did that happen. Still weird you seem to buy that Walrein is mafia and yet don't want to lynch his sub. If Walrein is mafia, so is his sub. I'll go through it tomorrow that might change my associative read with you/U Turn
Post #2:
hi that was me.
1. This argument is wrong and I've already argued why the logic behind it is wrong in any of my 4 or 5 posts where I accuse Walrein/U Turn of being mafia, especially in the context of it being Walrein. Town players know they are town and try to find mafia. Mafia players know they and their partner are not town and try to convince people they are town. Those posts read as someone who felt obligated to put down reads that he didn't actually believe but were thrown together based on his experiences with mafia and what some behaviors might mean. This is not pro-town to put in effort into overly thought out posts when the post itself doesn't actually have any beliefs in it. Walrein goes straight from calling me town for a bunch of meta reasons to saying "oh I see what is being said about Gale and DLE and can agree with it" in such a way that it doesn't demonstrate a genuine consideration of "If DLE is mafia, then Gale is mafia with him." The argument of "I think DLE is town but if he's mafia, but if he's mafia his partner is Gale" in and of itself is not scummy. The manner in which it occurs is this incredibly contrived throwaway idea of not wanting to clear me as obvtown so he picked one thing in thread to grab onto on why i wasn't his obvtown despite literally everything else in said post outlining how I do not play this way as mafia. If this were an honest read, Walrein would have explained why he felt the interactions between Gale and I were weird, which runs contrary to the premise you started with of Walrein putting in effort; it just shows he wants to appear to have effort. Walrein is a better player as to "not even make sound arguments", the act that he wants to demonstrate EFFORT over CONTENT is inherently a scumtell, not a towntell as you seem to presume. The fact I don't give a shit about whether or not my posts look town is irrelevant. I just care about playing pro-town and finding town and mafia. I've always been better at townreading than scumreading and my 3 obvtown reads have had 2 flip town already.
2. Being defensive over offensive is generally a mafia tell, not a town tell with some moderate exceptions. I don't think this is one of them knowing Walrein's general playstyle.
I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make at the end. Is it that my playstyle doesn't help town as a town player but helps mafia as a mafia player? I think it's pretty clear that giving a bunch of obvtown reads, adding pressure to players through quick questions they'll actually read and have something to comment on the game with, and comes up with unique scumreads like on Spiffy, Walrein, and Cancerous are inherently pro-town behaviors, as they encourage discussion from other players and help to generate reads both for myself and for other people in the game. The scummy things in my behavior are not then pushing my reads on day 2 and not articulating what reads I agreed with on Celever on day 1, both of which I didn't do out of laziness. If you really want to lynch someone for being lazy you DEFINITELY should lynch Walrein/U Turn. Walrein didn't even take the time to be good at being a defensive mafian.
I think it's similarly obvious why appearing to be active helps a mafia player blend in without having to help the town in avoiding obvtowns or give helpful advice on lynch targets.
U Turn out has now jumped into your scumreads section despite him being much lower than that of pokeguynxb in your earlier post. Explainable in the context of "making teams that make sense" though.
Regardless, here is the first main objection you give to lynching u turn which we're simply 2 ships passing in the night on. My argument is that we have more than enough to lynch him. Your argument is that we do not have enough information to lynch him and thus should let him keep posting. I doubt I am going to be able to convince you how much evidence is needed to be "concrete" but suffice it to say that I feel confident in a U Turn lynch.
jumpluff said:
This is just a restatement of your thoughts in post 7. See above.
jumpluff said:
Lol I completely missed post 12 until now when did that happen. Still weird you seem to buy that Walrein is mafia and yet don't want to lynch his sub. If Walrein is mafia, so is his sub. I'll go through it tomorrow that might change my associative read with you/U Turn
Also unless I really misread your 3rd post which I really don't think I did, you definitely did not originally scumread Walrein for what he posted. You found aspects of his play anti-town and concluded he was moderately towny especially in comparison to me despite things that should have set off further "I'm mafia" alarm bells.
Da Letter El, I really don't see why you're pushing so hard for a lynch. When you first posted after you came back, you said that discussion was fine and it was all going smooth. Next two posts, you say that everyone is "bad" or just mafia, and then just straight out try to lynch me without hesitation. What happened to all your other scum reads? Celever and acidphoenix. You've gone full out offensive against me, and haven't said a word about the other two. Do you consider whether they would be a better lynch? The only arguments I hear from you is that my flip will give information, and that I've been seesawing. I haven't really seesawed. At that time, you were still a pretty solid townread and I didn't really have that many worries about you, since I didn't think you would jump in and be so aggressive. We really don't get much info from my flip at all; jumpluff is the only person who would be affected by my flip as you say she would be my partner if I was mafia. She hasn't been protecting me like you've been thinking, you mention yourself that I'm in her top scumreads. In one of your posts you say that all my contributions indicate I'm mafia, yet I never see any of my contributions in your posts being mentioned. Care to elaborate on that?
UncleSam, right now I think the best option would be lynching acidphoenix, he really hasn't been contributing much to the thread. It feel like he's just posting once in a while for people to make sure he's there, then lurk and see how to react appropriately. his posts are kind of in clumps, like sudden bursts of activity, and they aren't really moving discussion along. The problem is that you can't really pair him with anyone; he's been going solo this entire time. then again, his mafia partner could just try to bus him and get some trust from the town; it would be really easy to do that right now, especially with all the discussion revolving around DLE, jumpluff, and myself. I could possibly see him being with DLE. I know I mentioned DLE being town before, and people might just see this as seesawing, but the problem I see right now is that DLE has put all the attention on me and his recent posts haven't really mentioned celever and acid at all. Celever and acidphoenix are just chilling in the background with nothing much to worry about, which is why I think that DLE + acidphoenix/Celever is perfectly possible (more acid than celever). I can't really see DLE going with anyone else, but if celever/acid flips scum im going to be looking at DLE.
Also I can't really find a deadline so I don't see much reason to push a lynch so quickly
UncleSam, right now I think the best option would be lynching acidphoenix, he really hasn't been contributing much to the thread. It feel like he's just posting once in a while for people to make sure he's there, then lurk and see how to react appropriately. his posts are kind of in clumps, like sudden bursts of activity, and they aren't really moving discussion along. The problem is that you can't really pair him with anyone; he's been going solo this entire time. then again, his mafia partner could just try to bus him and get some trust from the town; it would be really easy to do that right now, especially with all the discussion revolving around DLE, jumpluff, and myself. I could possibly see him being with DLE. I know I mentioned DLE being town before, and people might just see this as seesawing, but the problem I see right now is that DLE has put all the attention on me and his recent posts haven't really mentioned celever and acid at all. Celever and acidphoenix are just chilling in the background with nothing much to worry about, which is why I think that DLE + acidphoenix/Celever is perfectly possible (more acid than celever). I can't really see DLE going with anyone else, but if celever/acid flips scum im going to be looking at DLE.
Also I can't really find a deadline so I don't see much reason to push a lynch so quickly
Yep thanks DLE, I'm happy to engage with that. I think you went through my post in order so you can probably see that I came to similar conclusions as you on a lot of things like
Anyway, I appreciate you actually engaging with my arguments. But I simply cannot see a case where at least one of you and U-Turn Out are not scum, and it's plausible you both are, so I'm hesitant to back away from either here, especially since you're more equipped to defend yourself than UTO. So sell that to me, DLE. All your cases for not being scum rely on me and U-Turn Out being partners. But what if I'm not scum and you're not scum? Who are the mafia? Can you provide a possible partners list, iirc you said you did not think acidphoenix and Celever made a viable combination? I'll answer my own question too if you like.
Also I reiterate that I definitely think a scum is pushing the discussion here to protect their partner as previously described by all of the people who are likely from anyone's PoV to be responsible (me, Sam, and DLE), fyi, but I don't mind since it's either acidphoenix or U-Turn Out that's the partner in question (possibly both if we have both scum teams in play?) and neither of them have been forgotten.
Logically breaking down the three catalysts of this discussion:
me: FMPOV, etc. But from everyone else's it would indeed as we have discussed ad nauseam be me pushing the lynch on DLE to deflect from acidphoenix or U-Turn Out. However I think it would actually be more evident that I would be protecting acidphoenix, as he was the lynch target at the time I subbed in and I immediately launched an offensive on DLE because a) scumread b) think it's a more productive line of thought, as well as pulling Sam back into the conversation away from acidphoenix (which he happily went along with).
DLE: Is getting lynched, could be protecting both himself and acidphoenix at the same time or is bussing UTO rather insistently but I don't buy that because I don't think they're partners (except for how neatly it would explain the kills, but whatever, could be attempting to get a lynch onto opposite scum though with a LTS to mislynch me and kill a townie tonight) and because acidphoenix would've been a good person to keep the lynch on or even push it back onto Sam (or push harder for the Celever lynch).
Sam: Has the clearest motive if he is playing aggressively against acidphoenix but switching aggression in an attempt to save acidphoenix from his inevitable bussing. Warming to the UTO lynch, which both DLE and I are discussing.
I think acidphoenix is the best lynch to 100% hit scum, but if we have someone else we think we will definitely be scum, literally everyone else except PGNXB would yield more information upon denying. Leaving acidphoenix, the clear scum, alive might actually be in our interests if Sam is right. But I refuse to commit to something I feel has a strong possibility of being a mislynch, the risk:reward has to be there, and I think it is inherently antitown to do so since if you feel strongly something is a mislynch you should not need their death as probably town to confirm a single scumread more than any other flips. It's not a play I feel comfortable with instinctively, and it's impossible to ascertain which one acidphoenix's partner is as of now.
Yeti is only scum if I am scum, and even then she is not necessarily scum, and she hasn't been driving this discussion, so I left that out. There are two possible interpretations of the above post by U-turn Out.
I agree it was not a good example, especially after I went through every single post and saw how actually much of nothing they amounted to. I think the comparison is still pretty illustrative of the differences in your playstyle but does not lead to the conclusion that Walrein and UTO are not scum. I don't really have a good inactive user to compare to. So let's try the reverse comparison. These are, for the first time you've responded to me, thorough posts where you are engaging with reasoning and attempting to delineate the conclusions of every thought trajectory. This is exactly what was deficient in Walrein's posts as you pointed out at the time and I pointed out in my analysis. We do not disagree on this, that Walrein's posts seemed to be coming from a place of having a pregenerated conclusion and looking for a way to present it as a logical thought train. I did note of course that Walrein's play was shitty and ambivalent, including regarding you, and that I didn't think it so much pointed to cleanness so much as to either an attempt to appear engaged or be engaged. We agree that Walrein was not substantially engaged in the scumhunt. But I do not like how you mischaracterise that remark as a townread on Walrein, I think if you are coming from the place that 'this is an argument against me with many holes' it is fair. You'll notice later I started to explicitly expound upon my thoughts that the mafia were actually substantially disengaged as a whole in my posts as I went through more people's post histories and began to attempt to find alternative scenarios.
Yep, good distinction. Unfortunately you can see why I don't buy openly admitting to laziness as a self-clean in a game where probably all of the mafia are doing it in some form or fashion. A serious attempt to engage with this lynch is more than acidphoenix or Celever mustered though.
That's 'cause I think Walrein is far likelier to be the Spiffy killer and I think you could have killed either and it would have been an intelligent play from either PoV, but also the Spiffy kill would be a very good move from you. But as I stated I can see either possibility as possible. The characterisation of disinterested was specifically to explain why Walrein in that case would have allowed the ButteredToast kill and not gone for a superior kill, in this scenario using those motives it is UltrasPlot he should have killed and not ButteredToast, or even you if he does not think you are enemy scum. I do not see Celever as the Spiffy killer but I do see him as a viable ButteredToast killer. I am convinced acidphoenix is scum and my position on this has only gone stronger the more I've seen him idle in this thread.
Yes and no. What I am struggling to do is coherently integrate U Turn Out's posts into Walrein's position. It is why my analysis hesitated after ripping into Walrein. Yes, I'm aware they're the same player. There's also a numerical likelihood here (which I'm not sure I had actually done the numbers on at the time). I'm not interested in acontextual analysis at all, I do not want to divorce UTO from Walrein and as I have noted they are playing from the same position with regard to reads which is likely due to process of elimination. But you seem so confident that U-Turn Out's posts themselves are scummy in a way that I do not see, I don't know if I'm misreading you here. So of course second-guessing is inevitable until I see a pattern of behaviour from UTO, which is starting to develop rather manifestly now they have >2 posts. But I digress, because that is not what I want to know about your argument, although I'm very happy to discuss U-Turn Out themselves too. Basically: Is to you the evidence on Walrein sufficient enough to ignore U-Turn Out's more reasonable initial play/attribute it to U-Turn out showing some skill, or do you read U-Turn Out's play differently on its own merits? Not an exclusive or, I don't know if you are considering them disparately at all. And to you it might seem strange to consider them disparately since they are the 'same' player. But to me when someone subs out to find the points on which they agree and disagree consistently with the person they subbed in for is to find the most conclusive evidence about someone and their innate knowledge. The same way me subbing in for Cancerous informs your read on me and U-Turn Out but that is primarily characterised by my preference of lynching you and reads on UTO originally being weak and ambivalent, not Cancerous's play, I guess. Of course, Walrein was a hell of a lot more active than Cancerous. IDK if that analogy makes sense.
I think my logic trains are implicit in the fact that my posts developed specifically as I stated I was going through Walrein's entire post history.
Anyway, I appreciate you actually engaging with my arguments. But I simply cannot see a case where at least one of you and U-Turn Out are not scum, and it's plausible you both are, so I'm hesitant to back away from either here, especially since you're more equipped to defend yourself than UTO. So sell that to me, DLE. All your cases for not being scum rely on me and U-Turn Out being partners. But what if I'm not scum and you're not scum? Who are the mafia? Can you provide a possible partners list, iirc you said you did not think acidphoenix and Celever made a viable combination? I'll answer my own question too if you like.
Also I reiterate that I definitely think a scum is pushing the discussion here to protect their partner as previously described by all of the people who are likely from anyone's PoV to be responsible (me, Sam, and DLE), fyi, but I don't mind since it's either acidphoenix or U-Turn Out that's the partner in question (possibly both if we have both scum teams in play?) and neither of them have been forgotten.
Logically breaking down the three catalysts of this discussion:
me: FMPOV, etc. But from everyone else's it would indeed as we have discussed ad nauseam be me pushing the lynch on DLE to deflect from acidphoenix or U-Turn Out. However I think it would actually be more evident that I would be protecting acidphoenix, as he was the lynch target at the time I subbed in and I immediately launched an offensive on DLE because a) scumread b) think it's a more productive line of thought, as well as pulling Sam back into the conversation away from acidphoenix (which he happily went along with).
DLE: Is getting lynched, could be protecting both himself and acidphoenix at the same time or is bussing UTO rather insistently but I don't buy that because I don't think they're partners (except for how neatly it would explain the kills, but whatever, could be attempting to get a lynch onto opposite scum though with a LTS to mislynch me and kill a townie tonight) and because acidphoenix would've been a good person to keep the lynch on or even push it back onto Sam (or push harder for the Celever lynch).
Sam: Has the clearest motive if he is playing aggressively against acidphoenix but switching aggression in an attempt to save acidphoenix from his inevitable bussing. Warming to the UTO lynch, which both DLE and I are discussing.
I think acidphoenix is the best lynch to 100% hit scum, but if we have someone else we think we will definitely be scum, literally everyone else except PGNXB would yield more information upon denying. Leaving acidphoenix, the clear scum, alive might actually be in our interests if Sam is right. But I refuse to commit to something I feel has a strong possibility of being a mislynch, the risk:reward has to be there, and I think it is inherently antitown to do so since if you feel strongly something is a mislynch you should not need their death as probably town to confirm a single scumread more than any other flips. It's not a play I feel comfortable with instinctively, and it's impossible to ascertain which one acidphoenix's partner is as of now.
Yeti is only scum if I am scum, and even then she is not necessarily scum, and she hasn't been driving this discussion, so I left that out. There are two possible interpretations of the above post by U-turn Out.
(this is unclesam)
Sorry were you quoting me to indicate that you agree with my general thoughts about the lynch jumpluff? It's sort of hard to tell, you just sort of throw it out there at the end of your post.
I really didn't like U-Turn Out's last post. He regurgitated what Yeti said previously about acidphoenix, recommends lynching him anyway not because he thinks he is scum but because 'he really hasn't been contributing much to the thread', and also provides this little gem:
I'm surprised jumpluff didn't tear this post apart, did you simply not see it previously/are commenting on it now?
U-Turn Out why do you think Celever and acidphoenix are good lynches? Why do you want people to focus on others and rather than your own play? If you're not scum and presumably neither me nor DLE are scum based on your reaction there, then who is?
U-Turn Out's post and jumpluff's subsequently ignoring it looks really weird to me.
Since I think I'm currently voting DLE I'm going to unvote and Vote U-Turn Out.
Oh and acidphoenix I see you active lurking this thread. Make a real post today and give reads on U-Turn Out, DLE, and jumpluff please.
I agree that the lynch should not be pushed to majority until UltrasPlot/Pokeguy get subs or it becomes obvious they will definitely not be getting subs. Requesting an update on this situation from The Diabolic Gift (as well as an answer to my previous question about scum kill priorities and them killing each other).
I don't get this at all. Are you saying that I'm acidphoenix's partner, that he tried to bandwagon me 12 hours into the game, that we've consistently read each other as among the scummiest in the game, and that because I indicate that I'm thinking U-Turn Out might be a stronger lynch than DLE (and both being stronger than acidphoenix at this point in time), I'm somehow defending my partner from 'an inevitable buss'? Cause I don't buy how this makes any sense from any perspective. Could you both clarify exactly what you're saying about my play as well as why you think this makes sense?jumpluff said:
I really didn't like U-Turn Out's last post. He regurgitated what Yeti said previously about acidphoenix, recommends lynching him anyway not because he thinks he is scum but because 'he really hasn't been contributing much to the thread', and also provides this little gem:
aka 'WHY MEEEEEEE?' He provides no basis for thinking the others are mafia, he just asks that they 'be considered', presumably solely in an effort to get attention off of himself.U-Turn Out said:
I'm surprised jumpluff didn't tear this post apart, did you simply not see it previously/are commenting on it now?
U-Turn Out why do you think Celever and acidphoenix are good lynches? Why do you want people to focus on others and rather than your own play? If you're not scum and presumably neither me nor DLE are scum based on your reaction there, then who is?
U-Turn Out's post and jumpluff's subsequently ignoring it looks really weird to me.
Since I think I'm currently voting DLE I'm going to unvote and Vote U-Turn Out.
Oh and acidphoenix I see you active lurking this thread. Make a real post today and give reads on U-Turn Out, DLE, and jumpluff please.
I agree that the lynch should not be pushed to majority until UltrasPlot/Pokeguy get subs or it becomes obvious they will definitely not be getting subs. Requesting an update on this situation from The Diabolic Gift (as well as an answer to my previous question about scum kill priorities and them killing each other).
You only lynch once that's the motto U-Turn YOLO
My quote on you UncleSam was supposed to preface my discussion about your post but I accidentally pasted it in at the end and then no post editing. You can see I kind of trailed off incoherently there anyway since I got my scanner working and had to submit some PDFs to my schooll.
No I'm not genuinely suggesting in that comment that acidphoenix is your partner, that's literally in the same list where I claimed acidphoenix is my likeliest partner as well and in context of breaking down an emergent dynamic I see within the three of us that I believe is worth noting because we are basically using these users as props to argue over and push the lynch in our preferred direction. I don't give a fuck about posting observations which implicate me or you as scum in hypothetical situations if they are internally consistent with hypothetical observations on other people, the same way you didn't give a fuck about posting observations about me and Yeti when you were a lot more positive about my play. Yes I implied it's possible you're bussing acidphoenix, I think I already remarked upon that before implicitly in another post? I'm not a cop, sir. However I didn't specify who is bussing acidphoenix because there is zero question that if acidphoenix is lynched today their partner will be bussing them.
It is a fact and you acknowledged it that you are warming to the U-Turn Out lynch (and are now willing to commit to it) and have changed direction from both DLE and acidphoenix. I should've included DLE in your scenario tho. What I'm saying with that: I 100% think somebody wants to manipulate this lynch in a way where they lampshade their partner as scum but redirect attention onto others in hopes of getting off a mislynch instead, something that has been observed multiple times and I have been personally accused of with U-Turn Out because I didn't want to lynch them when I subbed in, none of their posts were particularly questionable except the single thing I mentioned which also bothered me about a player I felt was more worthy of attention at the time (DLE). What I'm saying about your play is exactly what I said about your play in my post before:
Therefore a weak RAA on the idea that we are both scum together, and from both of our povs... There is still a possibility you are scum that cannot be disregarded because I know I am not scum, but I think I've shown a pretty consistent trust for your play that is heavily informed by assuming through elimination DLE and/or WalreinUTO must be scum.
And in my post that you specifically responded, I am suggesting then that you are unlikely to be scum, and that I cannot back away from my suspicion of DLE and have few reasons to do so, but I challenged DLE to find a situation wherein he and I are both town by the exact same logic. I believe I have already commented explicitly that I believe there is no objective reason for your play before I subbed in if you are scum, unless you are playing completely perfectionist. So clearly while I have a diluted read on you I think it is both inferable and clear that I do not strongly consider you scum at this point in the game.
I've had like no sleep in the last few days to the point of literal nausea and missed most of the U-turn Out post because most of it is immediately benign or implicit, but yes I saw it when I replied, I thought DLE's was more worthwhile to respond to and I'd already remarked that I would comment on yours. I found his comment that I haven't been 'protecting him' irritating because it's patently illogical and an attempt to deconstruct a lynch they think is predicated on me apparently buddying them, also because it doesn't actually distance himself from me but distances me from them (if that makes sense) which is not coherent, but not really worthwhile writing more in that post to specifically address. Also I think you are pointing out the entire wrong problems with the post, let me fix your reading comprehension for you (and U-turn Out, I suppose).
This is from UTO's first post:
Okay now here are the actual problems with the posts, which require me to actually fine tooth comb it (and I've been up all day and night so I think you can probably excuse me for not doing that immediately, especially since after I wrote that post I had to do stuff for school as I stated). As you can see in my post I explicitly acknowledged that I saw UTO's post (straight after waking up, which wasn't when I made my post, so, yeah ,at a glance I don't think that post is remotely awful and certainly not for the reasons you gave, which dominate the bulk of the post overtly), but I don't remember where I was going with the 'two possible interpretations' remark. I think it had to do with defensiveness and aggression...
I don't care about the acidphoenix shit because UTO is literally answering a question you asked, Sam, and like I said I didn't read that as anything but 'I still think acidphoenix is totes scum'. Who cares what UTO said about acidphoenix being the same thing as everyone else thinks about acidphoenix when there is literally nothing else to infer from acidphoenix's behaviour? I realise you're talking about deflection, but deflecting to acidphoenix isn't the problem, since like I stated I interpreted upon reading UTO's post the reiteration of the acidphoenix scumread. Your characterisation of the post as 'why me, lynch someone else' is completely accurate and fair, except using acidphoenix as justification for that isn't really because what else is UTO going to say when DLE hasn't presented any specific accusations against them and you asked them who they want to lynch? The problem you sorta got but didn't correctl yidentify IMO is the defensive aggro towards DLE and primarily what UTO said about Celever (HMMMMMM, HMMMMM, HMMMMMMM), and what UTO did not say about Celever, a user who is in a far more interesting position right now.
Since then Celever has made (worth noting, anyway) only this post: which was primarily in response to me but had reads and plenty of information, and not gonna lie I literally forgot Celever asked me to talk about him and UltrasPlot, so soon(tm).
So why would U-Turn Out push DLE's scumreads instead of his own stronger scumread on PokeguyNXB? What happened to PokeguyNXB? Is it because I changed MY opinion on PokeguyNXB? I'm literally the only one who's had a rethink on PGNXB iirc, lol.
Why would Celever flipping scum make DLE more suspicious than UncleSam, who goes unmentioned in that post? (see my bolding) Where is the substantiation for the Celever and DLE association other than the italics which also perfectly apply to PGNXB? The why me stuff is terrible but because UTO is not coming from a sincere place as a villager (in a post where 1/2 of the content is about who the best lynch is) but a purely defensive and instinctive one (I have one more point of evidence in favour of this which I left until last for dramatic tension~). Villagers do why me too, but they use their own scumreads (as I stated in fairness UTO had nothing explicit to defend themselves against, it is this response in absence of that that is quite remarkable).
So talk scum to me, @U Turn Out. What changed with Celever? What changed with Cancerous (myself), if anything? Has your nullread on UncleSam changed in any way recently?
And explain this astonishing scumslip which I am not sure if Sam left there to see if I'd point it out or just didn't notice lol,
Again not voting, I do not want UltrasPlot reappearing and jumping on anything and I cannot place a vote that would not catalyse a bandwagon. I would like to know the deadline situation though. Right now I am fine with lynching U-Turn Out, DLE, or acidphoenix, and willing to consider Celever since I forgot to reply to Celever's post and as yet clearly have not done a breakdown on that user. None of the main flips provide useful information for me except maybe the DLE flip. So to decide there I have to think utilitarian, gross. I think acidphoenix is the safest lynch and DLE and UTO are probably approximately safe lynches.
Sorry I sound so snippy in my last few posts, I've had a really exhausting set of days and am not doing too great physically.
See you got it, but you didn't get it, sorry I should have established what my point was in talking about you and acidphoenix.
No I'm not genuinely suggesting in that comment that acidphoenix is your partner, that's literally in the same list where I claimed acidphoenix is my likeliest partner as well and in context of breaking down an emergent dynamic I see within the three of us that I believe is worth noting because we are basically using these users as props to argue over and push the lynch in our preferred direction. I don't give a fuck about posting observations which implicate me or you as scum in hypothetical situations if they are internally consistent with hypothetical observations on other people, the same way you didn't give a fuck about posting observations about me and Yeti when you were a lot more positive about my play. Yes I implied it's possible you're bussing acidphoenix, I think I already remarked upon that before implicitly in another post? I'm not a cop, sir. However I didn't specify who is bussing acidphoenix because there is zero question that if acidphoenix is lynched today their partner will be bussing them.
It is a fact and you acknowledged it that you are warming to the U-Turn Out lynch (and are now willing to commit to it) and have changed direction from both DLE and acidphoenix. I should've included DLE in your scenario tho. What I'm saying with that: I 100% think somebody wants to manipulate this lynch in a way where they lampshade their partner as scum but redirect attention onto others in hopes of getting off a mislynch instead, something that has been observed multiple times and I have been personally accused of with U-Turn Out because I didn't want to lynch them when I subbed in, none of their posts were particularly questionable except the single thing I mentioned which also bothered me about a player I felt was more worthy of attention at the time (DLE). What I'm saying about your play is exactly what I said about your play in my post before:
I think you are likelier to be town [2] than DLE [1, 2], but if DLE is town then you are almost definitely scum [1]. From your point of view it is very reasonable that DLE and I are both scum [3] but not from many other PoVs. The reason I again floated US and acidphoenix was because I believe PokeguyNXB is a townie pending further development. There is a contradiction in that my partner in this scenario is supposed to be U-Turn Out and that accounts for two of the scum in this scenario, you are the third in this reductio ad absudum scenario because the person who is likeliest to be town if I am scum is Da Letter El yet there is nothing to suggest you two are allied and plenty to suggest you are not (and you also look a lot worse if DLE is town), and then the fourth has to be acidphoenix because guess who is the clearest scum in this game. Yet the thing that implicates me most strongly as scum is my relationship with U-Turn Out, so we cannot simply say 'well then acidphoenix is jumpluff's partner'. The unaccounted for players are Celever and UltrasPlot. UltrasPlot would be the second candidate for your partner due to your buddying, this was not established in what I said, It is not watertight, but it is meant to demonstrate how unreasonable through process of elimination I find the idea of the me and U-Turn Out scumteam from your PoV, there is simply no reasonable candidate for your partner (don't bother to refute why UltrasPlot isn't your partner, Yeti already brought it up and your opinions on the matter are known, try and read the intention of what I'm saying which I have made explicit). Or do you disagree, do you think there is a case where Yeti is town and I am scum where you are plausibly town or scum, assuming acidphoenix is scum because if this is not a premise of your scenario it is ridiculous.
Therefore a weak RAA on the idea that we are both scum together, and from both of our povs... There is still a possibility you are scum that cannot be disregarded because I know I am not scum, but I think I've shown a pretty consistent trust for your play that is heavily informed by assuming through elimination DLE and/or WalreinUTO must be scum.
And in my post that you specifically responded, I am suggesting then that you are unlikely to be scum, and that I cannot back away from my suspicion of DLE and have few reasons to do so, but I challenged DLE to find a situation wherein he and I are both town by the exact same logic. I believe I have already commented explicitly that I believe there is no objective reason for your play before I subbed in if you are scum, unless you are playing completely perfectionist. So clearly while I have a diluted read on you I think it is both inferable and clear that I do not strongly consider you scum at this point in the game.
I've had like no sleep in the last few days to the point of literal nausea and missed most of the U-turn Out post because most of it is immediately benign or implicit, but yes I saw it when I replied, I thought DLE's was more worthwhile to respond to and I'd already remarked that I would comment on yours. I found his comment that I haven't been 'protecting him' irritating because it's patently illogical and an attempt to deconstruct a lynch they think is predicated on me apparently buddying them, also because it doesn't actually distance himself from me but distances me from them (if that makes sense) which is not coherent, but not really worthwhile writing more in that post to specifically address. Also I think you are pointing out the entire wrong problems with the post, let me fix your reading comprehension for you (and U-turn Out, I suppose).
This reads clearly like a reiterated scumread to me in context of their previous remarks on acidphoenix, what am I missing that makes it so remarkable? It's also the pattern of behaviour everyone else has observed in acidphoenix. You are correct that is regurgitated rationale, but I don't see anything interesting in that because Yeti wasn't the only one who made those comments, I made those comments, you made those comments, I think Celever made these comments, DLE made some of those comments about the flip as did you, are we all regurgitating each other? What else is there to say about acidphoenix? I have nothing else to say about acidphoenix than what I have already said personally. It is consensus opinion which is I suppose a rather easy way to slide back into the shadows but like I already observed that is a thing with this lynch where all the prospective targets are just going to push the lynch onto the most convenient target who isn't themselves.
This is from UTO's first post:
This is literally what everyone else has said and literally all I see to say about acidphoenix and the point UTO has stuck to from the first, and my secondary point of criticism of UTO themselves has been their continuation of Walrein's unoriginal and lazy reads, so it's not like there's anything new for me to say about that.
I agree with this and requested further elaboration from DLE actually in my post, no more comment needed.
Okay now here are the actual problems with the posts, which require me to actually fine tooth comb it (and I've been up all day and night so I think you can probably excuse me for not doing that immediately, especially since after I wrote that post I had to do stuff for school as I stated). As you can see in my post I explicitly acknowledged that I saw UTO's post (straight after waking up, which wasn't when I made my post, so, yeah ,at a glance I don't think that post is remotely awful and certainly not for the reasons you gave, which dominate the bulk of the post overtly), but I don't remember where I was going with the 'two possible interpretations' remark. I think it had to do with defensiveness and aggression...
This is interesting because while I may be misunderstanding what seesawing is my problem with UTO is that there is no seesawing except whenever Walrein/UTO try to lay out logic, I am more concerned that UTO literally shows no change in opinion ever except defensively towards DLE which was my primary problem with Walrein as well. No scumhunting, continuing to push a fixed set of points. Yet to me the discussions we have had since I subbed in have been remarkably revealing and generated a lot of possible talking points. I cannot see how you could see the conversation DLE and I had, or the conversations Sam and I have had, or the conversations Sam and Yeti have had as not worth adjusting or acknowledging the wealth of new information made available. This is an honest remark by UTO but not a good fact. Why has UTO not placed a read on me at the first available opportunity? All I have done is post and post and post, if you read 1/8 of it you would have enough content to make some form of read, UTO's initial reads were wishy washy on Cancerous because Cancerous had been MIA. Yet I have rectified this problem and played in the exact opposite way Cancerous has. This has been striking to everyone active but UTO?
+
+
Now we return to the DLE townread, which I have repeatedly stated was not a good read based on comparison to the UncleSam read. So let's just say the primary marker here is aggression. Have I not played absurdly aggressively? Why will UTO not comment honestly upon me, as I have done for them? Am I town or am I scum because I yelled at someone else you think is scum, UTO? So the townread has been rescinded in a hypocritical and purely defensive manner. Again here is a golden opportunity to throw me at DLE and yet does not do it, I wipe my hands of that.
I don't care about the acidphoenix shit because UTO is literally answering a question you asked, Sam, and like I said I didn't read that as anything but 'I still think acidphoenix is totes scum'. Who cares what UTO said about acidphoenix being the same thing as everyone else thinks about acidphoenix when there is literally nothing else to infer from acidphoenix's behaviour? I realise you're talking about deflection, but deflecting to acidphoenix isn't the problem, since like I stated I interpreted upon reading UTO's post the reiteration of the acidphoenix scumread. Your characterisation of the post as 'why me, lynch someone else' is completely accurate and fair, except using acidphoenix as justification for that isn't really because what else is UTO going to say when DLE hasn't presented any specific accusations against them and you asked them who they want to lynch? The problem you sorta got but didn't correctl yidentify IMO is the defensive aggro towards DLE and primarily what UTO said about Celever (HMMMMMM, HMMMMM, HMMMMMMM), and what UTO did not say about Celever, a user who is in a far more interesting position right now.
Now from the reads post here?
Since then Celever has made (worth noting, anyway) only this post: which was primarily in response to me but had reads and plenty of information, and not gonna lie I literally forgot Celever asked me to talk about him and UltrasPlot, so soon(tm).
So why would U-Turn Out push DLE's scumreads instead of his own stronger scumread on PokeguyNXB? What happened to PokeguyNXB? Is it because I changed MY opinion on PokeguyNXB? I'm literally the only one who's had a rethink on PGNXB iirc, lol.
Why would Celever flipping scum make DLE more suspicious than UncleSam, who goes unmentioned in that post? (see my bolding) Where is the substantiation for the Celever and DLE association other than the italics which also perfectly apply to PGNXB? The why me stuff is terrible but because UTO is not coming from a sincere place as a villager (in a post where 1/2 of the content is about who the best lynch is) but a purely defensive and instinctive one (I have one more point of evidence in favour of this which I left until last for dramatic tension~). Villagers do why me too, but they use their own scumreads (as I stated in fairness UTO had nothing explicit to defend themselves against, it is this response in absence of that that is quite remarkable).
So talk scum to me, @U Turn Out. What changed with Celever? What changed with Cancerous (myself), if anything? Has your nullread on UncleSam changed in any way recently?
And explain this astonishing scumslip which I am not sure if Sam left there to see if I'd point it out or just didn't notice lol,
This is the true regurgitated argument, it makes sense fmpov but not from UTO's. UTO, aren't you a townie? Don't you have scumreads? Aren't there people aggressively attacking you? Why can you see clear flip logic for Celever and acidphoenix but not... yourself, when from your PoV you know a lynch on you is a mislynch and you will always flip town?
Again not voting, I do not want UltrasPlot reappearing and jumping on anything and I cannot place a vote that would not catalyse a bandwagon. I would like to know the deadline situation though. Right now I am fine with lynching U-Turn Out, DLE, or acidphoenix, and willing to consider Celever since I forgot to reply to Celever's post and as yet clearly have not done a breakdown on that user. None of the main flips provide useful information for me except maybe the DLE flip. So to decide there I have to think utilitarian, gross. I think acidphoenix is the safest lynch and DLE and UTO are probably approximately safe lynches.
Sorry I sound so snippy in my last few posts, I've had a really exhausting set of days and am not doing too great physically.
Sorry rereading that it was utterly incoherent because I went and took a shower in the middle of writing it.
The unaccounted for players are Celever and UltrasPlot. UltrasPlot would be the second candidate for your partner due to your buddying, this was not established in what I said, but I am establishing it more clearly now. It is not watertight, but it is meant to demonstrate how unreasonable through process of elimination I find the idea of the me and U-Turn Out scumteam from anything but your PoV
and addendum: From your PoV there is Yeti or U Turn Out as my partner and [Da Letter El/U Turn Out/PokeguyNXB/acidphoenix/Celever] as the other teams, try and make that coherent.
This is meant to read:
The unaccounted for players are Celever and UltrasPlot. UltrasPlot would be the second candidate for your partner due to your buddying, this was not established in what I said, but I am establishing it more clearly now. It is not watertight, but it is meant to demonstrate how unreasonable through process of elimination I find the idea of the me and U-Turn Out scumteam from anything but your PoV
and addendum: From your PoV there is Yeti or U Turn Out as my partner and [Da Letter El/U Turn Out/PokeguyNXB/acidphoenix/Celever] as the other teams, try and make that coherent.
Not going to lie jumpluff, I very rarely know who you are talking to in various paragraphs and this makes understanding what you're aiming at quite difficult at times.
I don't see what is incoherent about a jumpluff+Yeti team and a DLE/UTO+acidphoenix/Celever team. By 'coherent' do you mean 'clear'? I'm fairly certain I've been clear that I think that it is more likely that either all four of DLE/UTO/acidphoenix/Celever are mafia or that one of Pokeguy/UltrasPlot is then that both you and Yeti are mafia; what do you want me to be more coherent about?
Also jumpluff I've had a re-think on Pokeguy as well, and I think that the two of us both more or less saying 'I think maybe Pokeguy is noobtown' along with no discernible attention from Yeti on that front makes him less of an attractive potential alternative lynch target from a mafia U-Turn Out's perspective. Thus, I think that his neglecting to mention it is every bit as scummy as the rest of that really scummy post.
Not sure there's really anything else I have to add that I haven't said already, though I await someone other than jumpluff posting (again, thank you so much for putting time and effort into this game, it has made it much more enjoyable jumpluff! Feel better!).
I don't see what is incoherent about a jumpluff+Yeti team and a DLE/UTO+acidphoenix/Celever team. By 'coherent' do you mean 'clear'? I'm fairly certain I've been clear that I think that it is more likely that either all four of DLE/UTO/acidphoenix/Celever are mafia or that one of Pokeguy/UltrasPlot is then that both you and Yeti are mafia; what do you want me to be more coherent about?
Also jumpluff I've had a re-think on Pokeguy as well, and I think that the two of us both more or less saying 'I think maybe Pokeguy is noobtown' along with no discernible attention from Yeti on that front makes him less of an attractive potential alternative lynch target from a mafia U-Turn Out's perspective. Thus, I think that his neglecting to mention it is every bit as scummy as the rest of that really scummy post.
Not sure there's really anything else I have to add that I haven't said already, though I await someone other than jumpluff posting (again, thank you so much for putting time and effort into this game, it has made it much more enjoyable jumpluff! Feel better!).
Personally this struck me as a scummy lynch. acidphoenix is probably the safest person to pick but considering there has been doubt expressed that this isn't just Haunted Diamond 2.0, I find it weird he picks this guy as his lynch.
Especially considering his reasons. Maybe I think UTO has fewer posts than he really does but the way he describes acidphoenix's posting applies equally to PokeguyNXB, himself, DLE most of the time, and UltrasPlot, who would consistently make several clustered posts before he vanished.
After DLE put some heat on him, this felt way more like "anyone but me, hey, here's some low hanging fruit, lynch this guy!" than an actual interesting lynch target. If he's suspicious of Celever and DLE why doesn't he say one of them?
acidphoenix needs to post a gd reads list and contribute or be subbed out. PokeguyNXB have you posted anything recently?
The Diabolic Gift are subs available for these players? Most pressingly, UltrasPlot who has not posted or been on Smogon since July 21.
Speaking of, I feel a bit more strongly today that UP is DLE's partner:
Step One: DLE makes the joke post about being inspector.
Step Two: UncleSam makes the too-serious post countering it.
Step Three: TIK makes a post accusing DLE and Sam of being mafia together and having pre-planned the exchange. TIK then attempts to lynch his Slam Dunk #1, UncleSam.
Step Four: Off the heels of TIK's lynch, DLE also votes UncleSam.
Step Five: The "bandwagoners" vote UncleSam as well, three newbies miraculously convinced he is scum by this brief exchange.
Step Six: TIK says "I like DLE" I think implying he sees DLE as town at this point.
Step Seven: TIK begins the "Gale is Slam Dunk Scum #2" campaign while DLE acts like the kind mentorly fellow to Gale.
Step Eight: DLE says his "top town" is TIK. No reason, but he gives a reason in another post: he's playing wanton and aggressive. Orders Gale to unvote him after TIK/Gale have been in a spat.
Step Nine: They continue to be town-reading buddies the rest of the game, well, until UP vanishes, that is.
Personally I think it was TIK who staged the response, not Sam. He makes a post that seems, at first, to be cluelesstown in thinking the mafia had a chance to discuss beforehand. Personally I think he knew they didn't, but also knew it would come off as a town move to have that uncertainty. After that, TIK and DLE never accuse the other of anything again that I can determine - UP sees him as a possible lynch target on Day One but Day Two he makes the shift to "DLE is town yeye" which would be after they had a chance to talk at night. Actually ButteredToast was one of the people TIK suspected of being mafia on Day One at one point and UP thought the BT kill was smart. Possible the UP/DLE scumteam performed it.
jumpluff UncleSam Celever What do you guys think about this possibility? For all of you, if you presume you are town, DLE has to be one of your suspects to not be town due to the numbers, depending on how strongly you feel towards acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB.
On other matters,
huge town vibes from jumpluff. Their dedication to posting despite their crappy irl circumstances and sleep is much more in line with their townplay in Res and I feel like they're generally more vocal as a townsperson than a scum in mafia. I think part of Sam's problem is they don't c/p who the quote was by, so in a long post it can all blur. Maybe it would help if pluff only addressed stuff posed by Sam in one post, then stuff posed by DLE in another, to be more clear? If you got a lot to say heaven knows we can use it.
Celever remains a suspect due to the ambiguity of PGNXB and acidphoenix. Sure, all four of these three + UTO could be mafia. But I find this an unlikely situation.
huge town vibes from jumpluff. Their dedication to posting despite their crappy irl circumstances and sleep is much more in line with their townplay in Res and I feel like they're generally more vocal as a townsperson than a scum in mafia. I think part of Sam's problem is they don't c/p who the quote was by, so in a long post it can all blur. Maybe it would help if pluff only addressed stuff posed by Sam in one post, then stuff posed by DLE in another, to be more clear? If you got a lot to say heaven knows we can use it.
Interesting you would say this. I feel like the fact you suddenly have these big tl;dr posts is pretty defensive. Either his partner is one of the other people proposed for a lynch (meaning I don't think UTO or jumpluff are his partner) or he's worried about all the posts saying he would be a viable target. After so long disengaged and sparsely posting to suddenly fix that makes it seem like you have something, someone, to protect.Da Letter El said:
Celever remains a suspect due to the ambiguity of PGNXB and acidphoenix. Sure, all four of these three + UTO could be mafia. But I find this an unlikely situation.
The Diabolic Gift
Banned deucer.
Subbing Ultra's Plot, Send Convo to sub
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Can i get my sub 2 when available?
The Diabolic Gift
Banned deucer.
ok
The Diabolic Gift
Banned deucer.
rssp1 subs for ultrasplot
UncleSam i already mentioned why I think acidphoenix is a good lynch. Yeti has pointed out about him not really having a partner, but I feel like at this point of the game the scum aren't really trying to defend one another, but just cast a suspicion on someone else so his partner can go hide in the shadows again, which I was thinking DLE was doing. As jumpluff mentioned before, acidphoenix is the safest lynch and I feel the same way. I don't really he's going to be posting soon, and I don't see a reason to keep him any longer; no more information will really come out from him. I don't see the need to risk a mislynch because acidphoenix is definitely scum and we don't lose much from lynching him.
Celever...he just seems to be playing strange. I admit that some of this is gut, but he's picking on the helpless players (gale and ultrasplot earlier) and trying to push a lynch on them. I also feel like he's trying to hang low this day; I appreciate the post he made, but after jumpluff and I subbed in he didn't really try to spark discussion; I think he was trying to wait and see if he can get a lynch off of either of us and seeing our responses to other people. As I said, it's mostly gut, but looking at the scum teams possible I think that he's probably on one of them. Also find it fascinating, as other people stated, how he completely ignored me in his recent post that he made. Celever care to explain?
I want people to have their attention on others because I'm definitely not going to let people who have posted before and suddenly disappear (celever and acid) pass this day. Best and most important discussion in the entire game, and they're just going to read it, and decide not to add anything? That's what I think they're doing right now, and I feel like people should pressure those who aren't really trying to do anything to post.
I've thought about the scum teams a while. If myself, DLE, and you aren't in any of the scum teams, it's probably pokeguy, celever, ultrasplot, and acid. I don't really believe that these are the four, it just seems so awkward. yeti + pluff could be possible, but I don't think that's likely. DLE fits well in the teams, and I've grown more suspicous of him. UncleSam, can you tell me why my post implies that DLE cannot be on the scum teams?
jumpluff: there was a long period of discussion where I was not active between two of my posts, and that's when you mostly started talking. When I got back, I felt like I needed to respond to DLE and I didn't really look at the other posts in great detail, so I'm sorry if you feel like I've been ignoring all the posts other than DLE's lynch. I'm getting strong town vibes from your posting; you seem to go into a lot of detail into a variety of topics, and you pretty much started all the discussion that's happening right now which I see as town. I like how you're looking at different PoVs when posting, it really helps others do the same. Cancerous's slight inactivity was one of the things I worried about, but this is no longer a problem, you have been very active. I would appreciate it if you could clarify what you are implying with my interactions with Celever; the reason I put him with DLE and not UncleSam in that post was because 1. The post was more about DLE and the possiblities that he could be and 2. He hasn't been really buddying anyone recently (tbf it's possible it's because he isn't too active) , but I felt like DLE was trying to cover him up. You mentioned about a part of my post that you thought was a scumslip. Those arguments that I listed were from DLE, and I was putting them in my post as how I think that he was implying; he was implying that I was mafia and you would be too if I flipped mafia; therefore I put it like that. The reason I really haven't pushed PokeguyNXB as much as you thought I would was because 1. he was getting a sub and 2. I really didn't know about his irl circumstances that detailed; the fact that he requested to sub out makes me believe that everything he said about his circumstance was honest and that he was actually struggling to put a post simply because of time. I would also like to hear more from his sub before I make more comments on him.
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