Has anyone heard from milos? I just messaged him about the last d league spot. Season starts in 4 days and i need to know if I'm in or not.
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Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition
- Thread starter WaterBomb
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Pretty sure they already drafted bruh
Also the season starts tomorrow
(today w/e)
Nice of him to let me know earlier
Looks like I'm sitting out ff this year
Looks like I'm sitting out ff this year
Last slot got assigned in here ages ago. Read through the thread and you'll see he mentioned setting a draft time august 26th.
Playing Gronk/Brady in one of my leagues this week. Not happy
Thanks to a Brown garbage time TD, at least I'm still somewhat in my matchup against a Gronk owner.
At least I started Brady in another league. :P
At least I started Brady in another league. :P
Antonio Brown put up only slightly worse numbers and didn't have to drop 3 TDs to do it....I still reckon you should have picked Brown!
I took Brown third overall in Smogon League but I wouldn't be down on anybody taking Gronk higher. While it's heresy against conventional draft wisdom, Gronk's so much better than any other TE that he could easily have been justified as the #1 overall pick.
In case you were curious, last year (according to Smogon League A's .5 PPR settings):
Rodgers (354.14) > Luck (351.74: -2.4 from Rodgers) >> Wilson (328.1: -23.64 from Luck)
Bell (329) > Murray (322.6: -6.4) >> Forte (295.6: -27)
Brown (335.16) >> Thomas (285.4: -49.76)
Gronk (225.4) >> Gates (188.6: -36.8)
My pre-draft rankings were set accordingly, where I had Peterson + Bell at #1-2 and Brown at #3. Due to relative scarcity of reliable starters at the position, I still placed a slight premium on the RB position with my second tier following -- Lacy, Charles, Anderson, Forte, Lynch and Murray -- with Rodgers + Luck and Gronk rounding out my would-be Round 1 picks. I wouldn't think it completely absurd to take Gronk #1. There's a million "okay" QB and WR candidates on the waiver wire you can plug-and-play anytime when needed. That's not true of RB or TE, which is why conventional wisdom places a premium on drafting the position regardless of PPR, but there's ~15 or so "good" RBs to go around (enough for everyone to have one elite starter and two for some) There's only one Gronk, and you also won't find any C.J. Anderson-style "elite injury replacement" TE mid-season either.
Brown also has by far the highest floor of any fantasy player, dude hasn't scored less than eight points in a game (.5 PPR) since 2012, and he has the lowest injury risk of anybody in my R1 besides Luck. (Rodgers and Gronk have injury histories and the rest are RBs.) I mean, I had good reason to take Brown, yo.
In case you were curious, last year (according to Smogon League A's .5 PPR settings):
Rodgers (354.14) > Luck (351.74: -2.4 from Rodgers) >> Wilson (328.1: -23.64 from Luck)
Bell (329) > Murray (322.6: -6.4) >> Forte (295.6: -27)
Brown (335.16) >> Thomas (285.4: -49.76)
Gronk (225.4) >> Gates (188.6: -36.8)
My pre-draft rankings were set accordingly, where I had Peterson + Bell at #1-2 and Brown at #3. Due to relative scarcity of reliable starters at the position, I still placed a slight premium on the RB position with my second tier following -- Lacy, Charles, Anderson, Forte, Lynch and Murray -- with Rodgers + Luck and Gronk rounding out my would-be Round 1 picks. I wouldn't think it completely absurd to take Gronk #1. There's a million "okay" QB and WR candidates on the waiver wire you can plug-and-play anytime when needed. That's not true of RB or TE, which is why conventional wisdom places a premium on drafting the position regardless of PPR, but there's ~15 or so "good" RBs to go around (enough for everyone to have one elite starter and two for some) There's only one Gronk, and you also won't find any C.J. Anderson-style "elite injury replacement" TE mid-season either.
Brown also has by far the highest floor of any fantasy player, dude hasn't scored less than eight points in a game (.5 PPR) since 2012, and he has the lowest injury risk of anybody in my R1 besides Luck. (Rodgers and Gronk have injury histories and the rest are RBs.) I mean, I had good reason to take Brown, yo.
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you can't compare an equal number of TEs to RBs when everyone in the league starts and rosters 2-3x more RBs.
let's assume half those flex starters are RBs, giving you 30 starting RBs in the league. your "Value over Replacement" for the #1 pick would be something like this (taking last year's stats, full PPR cuz i can't find half):
RB1: Bell: 23.2 PPG
RB2: Murray: 22.6 PPG
RB3: Forte: 21.7 PPG
RB30: Tre Mason: 8.6 PPG (over full season)
RB30 by PPG: Branden Oliver: 10.4 PPG
So the difference between a top RB and a borderline starter is about 12 points.
Looking at TEs last year:
TE1: Gronk: 17.8 PPG
TE2: Graham: 15.6 PPG
TE3: Gates: 13.7 PPG
TE11/12: Miller/Donnell: 10.0 PPG.
A difference of "only" 8 points between the creme of the crop and guys you probably wish you weren't starting. What makes the difference even worse is that the 30th RB is gone by the 6th/7th round in a 12 man draft, while the 12th TE will last until the 10th-12th round and only 15-18 or so will even be drafted.
I have nothing against Gronk as a player, and he's probably easily going to exceed his 12 TDs from last year (Before last night I thought he'd continue the pace he was on last year, averaged 1/game over his last 11 games) but he is simply statistically not worth being drafted in the top 3 in any league. The only way I'd see anyone drafting him in the first round is if they were severely worried about whatever RB fell to them (and even then I'd prefer AB, even in half PPR he is worth ~10 points more than the #30 WR, making his Value over Replacement somewhere in between RBs/TEs while being much safer). It hurts passing him up, because I've had Gronk on my money team twice and loved every minute of it, but he's simply not worth that high of a pick.
let's assume half those flex starters are RBs, giving you 30 starting RBs in the league. your "Value over Replacement" for the #1 pick would be something like this (taking last year's stats, full PPR cuz i can't find half):
RB1: Bell: 23.2 PPG
RB2: Murray: 22.6 PPG
RB3: Forte: 21.7 PPG
RB30: Tre Mason: 8.6 PPG (over full season)
RB30 by PPG: Branden Oliver: 10.4 PPG
So the difference between a top RB and a borderline starter is about 12 points.
Looking at TEs last year:
TE1: Gronk: 17.8 PPG
TE2: Graham: 15.6 PPG
TE3: Gates: 13.7 PPG
TE11/12: Miller/Donnell: 10.0 PPG.
A difference of "only" 8 points between the creme of the crop and guys you probably wish you weren't starting. What makes the difference even worse is that the 30th RB is gone by the 6th/7th round in a 12 man draft, while the 12th TE will last until the 10th-12th round and only 15-18 or so will even be drafted.
I have nothing against Gronk as a player, and he's probably easily going to exceed his 12 TDs from last year (Before last night I thought he'd continue the pace he was on last year, averaged 1/game over his last 11 games) but he is simply statistically not worth being drafted in the top 3 in any league. The only way I'd see anyone drafting him in the first round is if they were severely worried about whatever RB fell to them (and even then I'd prefer AB, even in half PPR he is worth ~10 points more than the #30 WR, making his Value over Replacement somewhere in between RBs/TEs while being much safer). It hurts passing him up, because I've had Gronk on my money team twice and loved every minute of it, but he's simply not worth that high of a pick.
Yes, fantasy rosters draft, stash and play more RBs than TEs but that just balances out the fact that there are many more "good" RBs in the first place. Everybody should have at least one lock at RB and half or more of the league will have two. Beyond that you're picking for depth, which is nice but not essential. At TE, there's Gronk and then maybe 4-6 other guys who have the potential to compete for a distant #2. The other half of the league is streaming TEs like is common for K/DST. Passing on drafting Matt Forte doesn't get you stuck with Tre Mason, it gets you stuck with Latavius Murray or Andre Ellington. Passing on Gronk pretty much automatically gets you "Tre Mason" because that's what all other TEs are compared to him. That's a huge advantage Gronk's owner has over every single opponent.
And not in the first round? I know my assertion that I don't think Gronk going first overall would be all that absurd, although AFAIK I never heard of anyone actually doing it nor would I have, but first round is nothing. His ADP was 12th overall in preseason drafts, 9th in PPR. I mean, you're entitled to your opinion but clearly the general FF populace believed he was first-round worthy and they had every reason to believe it.
And not in the first round? I know my assertion that I don't think Gronk going first overall would be all that absurd, although AFAIK I never heard of anyone actually doing it nor would I have, but first round is nothing. His ADP was 12th overall in preseason drafts, 9th in PPR. I mean, you're entitled to your opinion but clearly the general FF populace believed he was first-round worthy and they had every reason to believe it.
Once last offseason on a rather boring day I did a 5 or 6 round analysis on whether or not taking a TE in the first round was "worth" it. Basically, if you have any confidence that the player you're drafting will end up at the # rank you've drafted him or better (that is, if you drafted Gronk, you're confident he'll be the highest scoring TE; if you drafted the #10 RB, you're confident he'll be ~the 10th highest scoring RB). if you do this out enough rounds, you'll find that waiting on TE (and QB...) is actually most beneficial for your roster in a world where you can have 100% security in your picks.
You claim that there are a lot more good/elite RBs than there are good/elite TEs. This is true; however, comparing them directly shows again that going RB early >> Gronk.
Consider in full PPR last season, Gronkowski (17.8) was only 6.5 PPG over the "average league starter" (6.5th, averaged between Kelce's 11.5 and Fleener's 11.0) and only 7.8 PPG over the "worst league starter" (12th, Miller's 10.0).
Also in full PPR, "Tier 1 RB" (Average between Foster/Bell/Murray/Forte = 22.1) was 7 PPG over the "average league starter" (12.5th, averaged between Ellington's 15.1 and Ingram's 14.9) and over 10 PPG over the "worst league starter" (24th, The aforementioned Tre Mason's 11.4). This doesn't even include the flex position. The difference between Gronk and the worst TE in the league is only the difference between an elite RB and a top-12 RB, and a miniature roster of #1 TE - #12 RB - #13 RB is pretty much evenly matched with #1 RB - #14 RB - #12 TE, and much much harder to draft. If you look at WRs, the gap is almost just as large, but the difference between the #30 and #50+ WR is much smaller.
I suppose I phrased my other post poorly, so let me fix it: The only way I agree with other people drafting Gronk in the 1st is if they are unsure about the safety of drafting some of the late first round RBs. I'm a fan of the mantra "You can't win the league with your first round pick, but you can lose it" so if you or anyone else thinks CJ Anderson or Jeremy Hill or ODB or Matt Forte are all to dangerous to risk your entire team on, I am 100% behind drafting someone safer (a healthy Gronk WILL produce). However, drafting TE first puts you at a statistical disadvantage in a vacuum where everyone drafts perfectly, and requires you to be a better drafter to overcome that deficit. You will literally be 1 round/tier worse at every other position compared to your piers if you draft equally, so it requires you to be a great manager to counterbalance the deficit you start yourself in.
Of course, if Gronk puts up 22+ points a game this season, none of this will matter - he'll be literally twice as efficient as any other TE, and his value over replacement will likely exceed whatever RB the guy behind you drafted.
You claim that there are a lot more good/elite RBs than there are good/elite TEs. This is true; however, comparing them directly shows again that going RB early >> Gronk.
Consider in full PPR last season, Gronkowski (17.8) was only 6.5 PPG over the "average league starter" (6.5th, averaged between Kelce's 11.5 and Fleener's 11.0) and only 7.8 PPG over the "worst league starter" (12th, Miller's 10.0).
Also in full PPR, "Tier 1 RB" (Average between Foster/Bell/Murray/Forte = 22.1) was 7 PPG over the "average league starter" (12.5th, averaged between Ellington's 15.1 and Ingram's 14.9) and over 10 PPG over the "worst league starter" (24th, The aforementioned Tre Mason's 11.4). This doesn't even include the flex position. The difference between Gronk and the worst TE in the league is only the difference between an elite RB and a top-12 RB, and a miniature roster of #1 TE - #12 RB - #13 RB is pretty much evenly matched with #1 RB - #14 RB - #12 TE, and much much harder to draft. If you look at WRs, the gap is almost just as large, but the difference between the #30 and #50+ WR is much smaller.
I suppose I phrased my other post poorly, so let me fix it: The only way I agree with other people drafting Gronk in the 1st is if they are unsure about the safety of drafting some of the late first round RBs. I'm a fan of the mantra "You can't win the league with your first round pick, but you can lose it" so if you or anyone else thinks CJ Anderson or Jeremy Hill or ODB or Matt Forte are all to dangerous to risk your entire team on, I am 100% behind drafting someone safer (a healthy Gronk WILL produce). However, drafting TE first puts you at a statistical disadvantage in a vacuum where everyone drafts perfectly, and requires you to be a better drafter to overcome that deficit. You will literally be 1 round/tier worse at every other position compared to your piers if you draft equally, so it requires you to be a great manager to counterbalance the deficit you start yourself in.
Of course, if Gronk puts up 22+ points a game this season, none of this will matter - he'll be literally twice as efficient as any other TE, and his value over replacement will likely exceed whatever RB the guy behind you drafted.
is this why I'm relatively awesome at fantasy
At any rate, I think the best draft value you can get doesn't merely care about position average, or floor. It's also about how much better your pick is than the next-best ranked player(s) at the position in question when you're in the draft. That's your immediate opportunity cost: who are the next players likely to go off the board between your pick(s) and how much better are they than the next wave of players in that position? Taking Gronk 11th overall ain't hurting your RB prospects anymore than the guy picking 8th taking Julio Jones hurts theirs anyway, and I think we're past the days of making fun of people for going WR first (although it remains a point of discussion every season) when you're picking mid-round and all the top-tier RBs are already gone.
But I don't think you're even really disagreeing with me judging by that statement in the middle of your post there. Yeah, it's harder to draft TE1 and two borderline elite RBs than just grabbing a top-tier RB, a second-tier one and picking a random late-round TE later. Half the league can have two great RBs but there's only one Gronk, but really it all depends on draft position... and the oh-so-subjective perceived value of each player. If you're picking 11-of-12, the top-tier RBs and WRs aren't there anymore. So take Gronk and be that guy who gets to build a serviceable "TE1 / RB12 / RB13" team, because he won't be there in round 3, probably won't even make it through the guy wheeling picks 12-13. Better than taking RB8 and RB10 and getting dumped by everyone else having RB1 + RB12, RB2 + RB11, WR1 + WR5 and shit.
If everyone drafts "perfectly," then everyone's team should be roughly the same strength. The only difference would be minor discrepancies between certain tiers of players (RB1 + RB20 might be slightly better, or worse, than RB2 + RB19 and such). Of course, some people draft better than others and ultimately there's still a lot of luck involved with injuries and week-to-week fluctuations. Having the most accurate player evaluations, taking the lowest risks with the highest payoffs, and managing waiver wire priority (depending on settings) is what gives you an edge, but like Pokémon there are few guarantees.
I'm not married to the idea of taking RB first. My draft philosophy is pretty fluid but I did say that I prioritized my Tier 2 RBs over my Tier 1 QBs (Rodgers/Luck) and TE (Gronk), so obviously I don't disagree with you either that RB is a more important position in general. The floor for low-end QBs is pretty generous, and on the flip side the floor for TE is pathetic but pretty much every TE not named Gronk may as well be there so who cares. (Exaggerating, there's maybe 3-5 other TEs worth playing consistently over streaming the position.) RBs carry the biggest injury risk and arguably has the worst ratio of good starters to position slots (especially in 2WR and/or FLEX leagues), so the more you can stash the better insulated you are from catastrophe. If I don't get Gronk, I'll take my RB3 over my starting TE. Usually QB as well because there's no reason I can't wait when everyone else has already filled their starting QB slot... (I'm actually kinda disappointed Rodgers and Luck went two of the three picks before me in Round 2 of Smogon League, I never get to draft QB early.)
But as the argument for Gronk, while he's "only" as equally good as every other elite position player is relative to the average, the thing about TE is that even #2 is pretty close to average. The step down from RB1 to RB6 is gradual, in fact they're all so close that everyone has their own opinions every season on which of the top 4-6 dudes should be #1 overall. Brown isn't that far over the next 5-6 best WRs. After Gronk, the value of even the next best TE dives off a cliff. You might hit an overhanging tree branch on the way down, named Jimmy Graham or Greg Olsen or Travis Kelce if one of them happens to step up, but don't expect a soft landing.
What say ye about my taking Antonio Brown #3 overall in Smogon League, son? I could've taken Lacy and had an elite but probably not the best RB, or I could take the undisputed #1 WR instead. The real crime was Huy taking DThomas/Hill on the wheel and leaving kd24 Forte. :[ Forte > Hill easy, huy man what're ya doing.
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i just want to say many people are influenced by the espn draft writers and yahoo writers who project adp and it shapes how the draft happens. the reality is i feel im smarter than many of those people and after thinking it over i would have taken gronk in the top 4 after bell brown and peterson. but people shouldnt feel so constricted by whats available. i took brady and foster in both leagues im in way earlier than anyone else would have and im lucky its gonna work out pretty amazingly but i also wanted them anyway and valued them higher than other people. for the same reason ive seen people take rodgers first overall, go with your gut and not what people tell you you're supposed to do if you're confident u can fill out ur team anyway.
when i used to play by doing it the "standard" way i took ryan matthews as a rookie in the first round. yeah dont do that.
when i used to play by doing it the "standard" way i took ryan matthews as a rookie in the first round. yeah dont do that.
i avoided all raiders in the draft despite the hype on lat murray and amari cooper. i avoided all jags in the draft despite the hype for allen robinson and tj yeldon. i avoided all browns in the draft despite all the hype on-- just kidding the browns suck
anyway, great week for TEs... graham gronk eifert kelce all put up big numbers.. makes me glad that the TE i stole in the 13th round (eifert) put up as many points as the TE taken in the 1st (gronk)
anyway, great week for TEs... graham gronk eifert kelce all put up big numbers.. makes me glad that the TE i stole in the 13th round (eifert) put up as many points as the TE taken in the 1st (gronk)
RBs were just my example, in 1 PPR WRs basically = RBs with more safety and similar upside. Antonio Brown is just as valuable over replacement level talent as an elite RB is, but the biggest difference is that there is more replacement level talent at WR. I have 0 problem taking AB that early, or the other top WRs in the first round (I think there were roughly the same #'s of WRs drafted in each the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round as RBs, so most people agree with it).
You seem to be misinterpreting some of my other points though. The team "#1 TE - #12 RB - #13 RB" is harder to draft because it's highly unlikely that all will be available in your first three picks. In PPR, Gronk was gone by pick #10, RB12 by pick 25, and RB13 by pick 28. It's "harder to draft" because, unless you're drafting 1st-3rd, it's highly unlikely that you'll be able to build that team with your first three picks. The other team (something like #1-5 RB, #10-12 RB, late round TE) is "easier" to draft because basically anyone drafting 1-8 probably has a shot at those RBs being available first 2 rounds.
The other intention of pointing that out was that team 2 still has a 3rd round pick to spend on a WR (or QB, I guess), but the expected point output (based on last year's) of each team's TE and RBx2 positions is almost the same (17.8 + 15.1+14.9 = 47.8, 22.1+~14.5+10 = 46.6). Therefore, if everyone ends up scoring in the rank they were drafted, team 2 has a pretty big advantage.
There's a dropoff from Gronk to the #2 and #3 TEs, true, but this is reflected in their draft positions. There were about 15 RB/WRs drafted before Jimmy Graham, and over 20 before Kelce/Olsen, so the dropoffs are basically integrated into each player's ADP.
You seem to be misinterpreting some of my other points though. The team "#1 TE - #12 RB - #13 RB" is harder to draft because it's highly unlikely that all will be available in your first three picks. In PPR, Gronk was gone by pick #10, RB12 by pick 25, and RB13 by pick 28. It's "harder to draft" because, unless you're drafting 1st-3rd, it's highly unlikely that you'll be able to build that team with your first three picks. The other team (something like #1-5 RB, #10-12 RB, late round TE) is "easier" to draft because basically anyone drafting 1-8 probably has a shot at those RBs being available first 2 rounds.
The other intention of pointing that out was that team 2 still has a 3rd round pick to spend on a WR (or QB, I guess), but the expected point output (based on last year's) of each team's TE and RBx2 positions is almost the same (17.8 + 15.1+14.9 = 47.8, 22.1+~14.5+10 = 46.6). Therefore, if everyone ends up scoring in the rank they were drafted, team 2 has a pretty big advantage.
There's a dropoff from Gronk to the #2 and #3 TEs, true, but this is reflected in their draft positions. There were about 15 RB/WRs drafted before Jimmy Graham, and over 20 before Kelce/Olsen, so the dropoffs are basically integrated into each player's ADP.
I realized I made a huge mistake after coming out of my money draft with Watkins, Robinson, and Brandon Marshall... never seems like much good comes from drafting WRs on shitty offenses.
Don't forget Sefarian-Jenkins, who I benched in week 1 over Greg Olsen -_-
Also protip that I forgot until it bit me in the ass, put your questionable players in the flex spot so you can remove them last minute if they're ruled out. I forgot that and got stuck with Mike Evans in League B.
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You and I both. Should have started Bradford.
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