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Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition
- Thread starter WaterBomb
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here's a probably dumb question, but on pff why can i only read like the first part of articles? like, "top 5 trends for week 3" but i only see the first thing. there's no arrows or buttons that i can see.
halp.
TheValkyries
halp.
TheValkyries
I'm not super great at daily fantasy, but your #1 goal should be to find 2-3 guys that you think are undervalued/underpriced this week. Balancing between positions is unnecessary (points are points!) but you do need a balance between "bad" players (cheap players) and elite players.
So, for example, I would start my roster picking some sleepers (love Cam and Robinson this week, Latavius Murray vs. Browns should be a good pick, Donte Moncrief is cheap af, etc) which leaves you room to pick up 2-3 elite players. Just remember that a lot of the weekly top-5 scorers are sleepers (last week the top 5 RBs were Deangelo Williams, Matt Jones, Dion Lewis, AP, and David Johnson) but a lot of the elite players are in the top-10 almost every week. To win money back, you need a few sleepers that explode and a few great players that are steady performers, as it's unlikely for anyone to build a lineup full of sleepers.
Appears to be a pretty big tournament, roughly 86000 participants
Ahh ok a GPP play. Generally speaking if you want to try and win a big tourney you have to make flyer picks, people who are super cheap and randomly go off that game. But that's not especially realistic so your goal should be to find who has good matchups in high scoring games. Find the Vegas predictions with high over/under totals and figure out what the game flow is likely to be, high passing vs high running probabilities etc. In a GPP game you're more likely to go with a stars and studs strategy but even footing can work too. As a general rule, 2x value will reach the minimum tier of payouts while 3x+ hits the top tier. Value is simple points production/price.
If your quarterback puts up 15 points that's terrible right? Wrong! His name is Tyrod Taylor, he cost 5k and just made you 3x value.
That's the trick, finding who can make you the most value with the highest probability. If you can find rbs and wrs in the 6ishk tier that allows you to pay for the Browns and the Julios who make value consistently.
TheValkyries
proudly reppin' 2 superbowl wins since DEFLATEGATE
Could be because those are fantasy articles which cost extra? Not certain. Their fantasy content is hyper scummy in its pricing and whatnot.
Anecdotally, I started DFS this season as well. I lost around a hundred bucks of my initial deposit making lineups on gut instinct when I signed up Wednesday before Week 1. After I did my research and developed a basic value system, I'm roughly even within my system (including Week 1 Sunday slate and all of Week 2). Some of my "hunches" were good but there's a lot you can miss if you don't do some good ol'-fashioned number-crunching. Of course, NFL is pretty low sample size so who knows how long before I can really tell just how well it works for me...
As per above, I've pretty much lost my entire starting bankroll on DraftKings because all my winnings so far have been on FanDuel. I think that's mostly just luck but part of it might be because I'm used to Smogon League's 0.5 PPR settings, of which FanDuel uses identical scoring minus no return yardage, where DK uses full PPR and bonus points for 300/100/100-yard outings which I have a harder time accounting for in my weekly rankings. I feel like DK scoring might favor a "studs + sleepers/bargains" pick strategy whereas on FD it won't matter as much if you go that route or "even-footed" since there's no top-end yardage bonus, that said if you wanna dabble between multiple sites keep in mind scoring differences.
Also I'm a bit salty about the initial deposit bonuses being so delayed. I understand they do it to alleviate fraud, so they aren't just literally giving away money, but I imagine there's a better way to do it if not just up the rate at which it's earned. (At 4%, you literally have to spend $5000 before you've been given a $200 deposit bonus, granted some or all of that can be out of winnings earned if you do well.) Seems kinda scummy, but I can only complain so much since it's not like they're literally stealing from me and I could've just withdrawn my money right back.
In other news, I fully expect Lacy to play and I kinda think Ivory still will as well, pending more info over the weekend.
As per above, I've pretty much lost my entire starting bankroll on DraftKings because all my winnings so far have been on FanDuel. I think that's mostly just luck but part of it might be because I'm used to Smogon League's 0.5 PPR settings, of which FanDuel uses identical scoring minus no return yardage, where DK uses full PPR and bonus points for 300/100/100-yard outings which I have a harder time accounting for in my weekly rankings. I feel like DK scoring might favor a "studs + sleepers/bargains" pick strategy whereas on FD it won't matter as much if you go that route or "even-footed" since there's no top-end yardage bonus, that said if you wanna dabble between multiple sites keep in mind scoring differences.
Also I'm a bit salty about the initial deposit bonuses being so delayed. I understand they do it to alleviate fraud, so they aren't just literally giving away money, but I imagine there's a better way to do it if not just up the rate at which it's earned. (At 4%, you literally have to spend $5000 before you've been given a $200 deposit bonus, granted some or all of that can be out of winnings earned if you do well.) Seems kinda scummy, but I can only complain so much since it's not like they're literally stealing from me and I could've just withdrawn my money right back.
In other news, I fully expect Lacy to play and I kinda think Ivory still will as well, pending more info over the weekend.
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On the one hand, I'm dismayed all the early scores are from players I have low stock in. On the other hand, I have more than zero stock in them at least.
Dion Lewis looking more and more legit every week. also real talk I really meant to start Sproles over Miller when I got the news of Murray being out -_- Already 20 points, I'll be amazed if Miller puts up 10 against the Bills and injured.
JESUS FUCK CAN THE PANTHERS STOP USING CAM NEWTON AS THEIR GOALLINE BACK AND GIVE STEWART SOME RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS
Dion Lewis looking more and more legit every week. also real talk I really meant to start Sproles over Miller when I got the news of Murray being out -_- Already 20 points, I'll be amazed if Miller puts up 10 against the Bills and injured.
JESUS FUCK CAN THE PANTHERS STOP USING CAM NEWTON AS THEIR GOALLINE BACK AND GIVE STEWART SOME RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS
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In League C Alfred Blue is currently putting up 20 points on my bench
He is currently my third highest scoring RB
He is currently my third highest scoring RB
That horrible conflicted moment when you're a Ravens fan and own AJ Green in fantasy
Starting Blount and Freeman in League C does help make up for that ravens game
Or Big Ben :( never thought I'd be sad to see him go down
Well Crosby couldn't outscore Randall Cobb and his 3 TDs. What is it with me having a lead and then getting destroyed on Monday Night?
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