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Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition
- Thread starter WaterBomb
- Start date
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hey guys, I really love Gurley (yes homo) but as a UGA fan my opinion is biased as fuck so I need a second.
what would be too much to give for him? Rams seem intent on feeding him carries (57 in 2 games) and it's their bye week, so right now is probably the last chance anyone is willing to sell on him. the team that has him has no RB depth (only 4 bench spots, he has Rawls until Lynch returns + Abdullah who's been benched) and only 1 quality Wr so I want to strike while he's worrying about who to start this week.
This league has WR/TE flex spots (3) so TEs are basically WRs for all intents & etc
I'm thinking about offering Mark Ingram (3 headed monster between him, Robinson, and Spiller, I do not want to be a part of that come late season when I need consistent points) + Tyler Eifert (bounced back into the national spotlight this week) or Allen Robinson (same) for Gurley + a droppable player. My WR depth is B. Marsh, TY Hilton, Dez Bryant (someone dropped him once the 12 week report came out, cuz 4 bench spot woes) and those two, so I think I can afford to lose one WR at the benefit of gaining what looks to be a top 10 RB ROS.
Rest of the roster is Eli, Leveon Bell, J. Stewart, and Karlos Williams. I don't see another way to get Gurley off this team, but I feel like I might be giving up too much for a potentially injury prone rookie with only 2 games under his belt.
what would be too much to give for him? Rams seem intent on feeding him carries (57 in 2 games) and it's their bye week, so right now is probably the last chance anyone is willing to sell on him. the team that has him has no RB depth (only 4 bench spots, he has Rawls until Lynch returns + Abdullah who's been benched) and only 1 quality Wr so I want to strike while he's worrying about who to start this week.
This league has WR/TE flex spots (3) so TEs are basically WRs for all intents & etc
I'm thinking about offering Mark Ingram (3 headed monster between him, Robinson, and Spiller, I do not want to be a part of that come late season when I need consistent points) + Tyler Eifert (bounced back into the national spotlight this week) or Allen Robinson (same) for Gurley + a droppable player. My WR depth is B. Marsh, TY Hilton, Dez Bryant (someone dropped him once the 12 week report came out, cuz 4 bench spot woes) and those two, so I think I can afford to lose one WR at the benefit of gaining what looks to be a top 10 RB ROS.
Rest of the roster is Eli, Leveon Bell, J. Stewart, and Karlos Williams. I don't see another way to get Gurley off this team, but I feel like I might be giving up too much for a potentially injury prone rookie with only 2 games under his belt.
ingram + eifert is overpaying. ingram for gurley straight up is more even... as a matter of fact i might say that gurley + some bench player for ingram would be more fair.. ingram is carrying the saints offense atm, AND this year he's catching passes too. he's basically a 3 down back (plus he gets goal line carries). gurley is not so much of a pass catcher. plus, like you said, the sample size for him is extremely small (although he's shown to be great so far).
you should have leverage in this trade since the rams have a bye... if he won't budge try getting him to trade you gurley + bench player for ingram + stewart. that's probably the weakest link on your bench
see I'm super eager to get rid of Ingram ASAP because I 100% disagree about his position on offense. way I see it, he's losing carries to Khiry Robinson and catches to CJ Spiller and has not been efficient with the touches he's had. the offense has been pretty terrible (they're behind Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Seattle in points scored) and unlikely to improve much. Ingram will never be a top 10 RB and might barely be a top 15 RB if he gets touchdowns, because atm he's not really getting the yardage.
in a world without injury, Gurley >> Ingram ROS, guaranteed. They've shown they'll give him volume, he has big play potential, and when the Rams eventually start scoring touchdowns he'll be the GL back. with the Browns and 49ers coming up, Gurley's stock will only increase, which is why I want him now :^)
in a world without injury, Gurley >> Ingram ROS, guaranteed. They've shown they'll give him volume, he has big play potential, and when the Rams eventually start scoring touchdowns he'll be the GL back. with the Browns and 49ers coming up, Gurley's stock will only increase, which is why I want him now :^)
i agree with you. i would also take gurley over ingram, and i believe gurley will be more valuable down the road. however, all that matters is that the guy you're trading with doesn't see it like us. if you can convince him that ingram will be solid, and really sell it, you'll be getting a great deal.
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Unlucky Desperado
Banned deucer.
LMAO THE ONE WEAK I BENCH MARKUS WHEATON HE SOCRES 14. AND MMARTSVIS WITH ZERO. FUCK YOU ODELL FOR RAPING ME I NEEDED 7 POINTS TO WIN. FUCK YOU STEELERS AND FUCK YOU ODELL
Unlucky Desperado
Banned deucer.
Words cannot express how mad I am.
was able to pick up C. West in my standard league, where i've had K. Davis since week 1.
just put in a trade offer with the Charles (former) owner offering Davis for Rivers.
she has Luck with Rivers/Wilson on her bench.
picked up Bradford in my .5ppr league as a streamer for next week when Dalton and company are out.
also picked up Julius Thomas in my standard league for Eifert's absence.
planning on sitting Jeremy Hill this week and going with Miller because match-up.
just put in a trade offer with the Charles (former) owner offering Davis for Rivers.
she has Luck with Rivers/Wilson on her bench.
picked up Bradford in my .5ppr league as a streamer for next week when Dalton and company are out.
also picked up Julius Thomas in my standard league for Eifert's absence.
planning on sitting Jeremy Hill this week and going with Miller because match-up.
Despite Nevada's hasty kowtowing to its casino overlords, this won't be Black Friday 2.0 unless there's some seriously illegitimate shit going on behind the scenes. There might be, but since it's not considered "gambling" and perfectly legal in most U.S. states currently, I doubt that's true (i.e. they don't need to do anything illegal to make hand over fist) and I don't see anything worse happening than it just being made illegal. Nobody's going to get their assets frozen or anything. Honestly, I kind of expect it to start us toward the slow path of legalizing U.S. sports betting in general, everywhere, like gay marriage and weed. I think gambling is even less controversial a subject, our laws just haven't kept up with the times... And the casino lobby is an actual, powerful opponent that weed and gay marriage never had.
How much shit would I get if I started bringing some DFS discussion to this thread anyway? I was thinking about it earlier today that even if it's not popular, it's at least something fun to talk about fantasy-wise on a week-to-week basis beyond things-that-happened-to-your-team-last-week-nobody-cares-about. Like how nobody will fucking trade me an RB and are just sitting on my trade offers instead of respectfully declining or engaging in dialogue to agree on something that would result in me not having to pray JStew starts doing anything, when I'm trying literally everything from incremental upgrades to dumping Brown for elite talent. >:|
My DFS question of the day incidentally relates to the recent non-incident as per above even: How truly important is ownership percentage? The conventional wisdom says it's pretty important, but I kinda came to my own conclusion that it really doesn't matter at all. I feel it can't be that simple, yet it seems so plainly obvious.
What matters is points-per-dollar, and to a lesser extent raw points when there's an excess of $$$ to use up, yeah? So then why does it matter how many people own a player? If you project Player A to score 20 points for $6 and Player B 18 for $6.2k, Player A is better. It doesn't matter if you expect Player A to be owned by 80% of the field and Player B by only 3%. Sure, Player B is still fine. He's good enough you might throw him in a couple lineups just to diversify your portfolio, if you create many lineups, but Player A ultimately appears he'll score more points for less money. Fading Player A just because he projects to be heavily owned doesn't make sense.
Of course, if you don't own Player A and they instead scored 2, then you gain a big leg up on the field. But you can't see the future in advance and obviously if you thought that was gonna happen, you would've projected Player A lower in the first place. It's not ownership% that's turning you off at that point, it's lower production.
How much shit would I get if I started bringing some DFS discussion to this thread anyway? I was thinking about it earlier today that even if it's not popular, it's at least something fun to talk about fantasy-wise on a week-to-week basis beyond things-that-happened-to-your-team-last-week-nobody-cares-about. Like how nobody will fucking trade me an RB and are just sitting on my trade offers instead of respectfully declining or engaging in dialogue to agree on something that would result in me not having to pray JStew starts doing anything, when I'm trying literally everything from incremental upgrades to dumping Brown for elite talent. >:|
My DFS question of the day incidentally relates to the recent non-incident as per above even: How truly important is ownership percentage? The conventional wisdom says it's pretty important, but I kinda came to my own conclusion that it really doesn't matter at all. I feel it can't be that simple, yet it seems so plainly obvious.
What matters is points-per-dollar, and to a lesser extent raw points when there's an excess of $$$ to use up, yeah? So then why does it matter how many people own a player? If you project Player A to score 20 points for $6 and Player B 18 for $6.2k, Player A is better. It doesn't matter if you expect Player A to be owned by 80% of the field and Player B by only 3%. Sure, Player B is still fine. He's good enough you might throw him in a couple lineups just to diversify your portfolio, if you create many lineups, but Player A ultimately appears he'll score more points for less money. Fading Player A just because he projects to be heavily owned doesn't make sense.
Of course, if you don't own Player A and they instead scored 2, then you gain a big leg up on the field. But you can't see the future in advance and obviously if you thought that was gonna happen, you would've projected Player A lower in the first place. It's not ownership% that's turning you off at that point, it's lower production.
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[12:59:13] <Texas> who would you start in a flex spot this week: marvin jones, cj anderson, ronnie hillman, or sankey
[12:59:20] <Texas> damn cooper on bye
[12:59:20] <Texas> damn cooper on bye
My lineup in the 12 team league I'm in with roommates/friends that actually makes trades
I'm feeling pretty happy about my league championship odds even though I'm 2-3 currently (those early week RB duds tho)
Palmer: drafted in 13th (Tannehill in 9th RIP)
Lacy: drafted in 1st
Forsett: Traded with CJ Anderson for Jeremy Hill and Andre Johnson after week 2
Thomas: Traded two days ago for Alshon Jeffrey and Allen Robinson
Marshall: drafted in 6th
Olsen: drafted in 5th
Cooper: Traded with Hillman for Chris Ivory after week 3
Still trying to figure out what I was thinking drafting Andre Johnson in the 4th round
I'm feeling pretty happy about my league championship odds even though I'm 2-3 currently (those early week RB duds tho)
Palmer: drafted in 13th (Tannehill in 9th RIP)
Lacy: drafted in 1st
Forsett: Traded with CJ Anderson for Jeremy Hill and Andre Johnson after week 2
Thomas: Traded two days ago for Alshon Jeffrey and Allen Robinson
Marshall: drafted in 6th
Olsen: drafted in 5th
Cooper: Traded with Hillman for Chris Ivory after week 3
Still trying to figure out what I was thinking drafting Andre Johnson in the 4th round
Hope you ended up taking this advice Texas Cloverleaf
I did, he was my initial preference for the slot. Though, Hillman also performed reasonably, 15.5 for jones vs 11.5 and counting for hillman
Unlucky Desperado
Banned deucer.
MARTAVIS BRYANT IS A BEAST
so about that J-Stew...
Well, Hillman did fine and playing Stewart would only mean I lose by 40 instead of 50 so whatever. Good to know he's not dead though. Maybe he'll be part of my late surge to the playoff, one I wouldn't need if he did his damn job in the first place.
And oh hey, looks like I'm 0-3 on the week... no, I need Donnell to score less than nine points to avoid that. But somehow Gronk + Lewis didn't score enough more than Gostkowski to avoid me losing by 1.46. Maclin, your damn head injury killed me this week. :(
And oh hey, looks like I'm 0-3 on the week... no, I need Donnell to score less than nine points to avoid that. But somehow Gronk + Lewis didn't score enough more than Gostkowski to avoid me losing by 1.46. Maclin, your damn head injury killed me this week. :(
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