Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition

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You should have jumped off that CMike train when they said midweek he was still their #3 RB. The hype is unreal; I saved my top waiver spot and someone else dropped Ronnie Hillman for Micheal, so I got a free starting RB for just a little patience.

There's a team in my league that just lost Foster, so his RBs are Frank Gore and Ryan Mathews, who just got hurt. He has Wilson and Big Ben as his QBs. Would it be trade rape if I offered him Hilton, J-Stew, and Eli for Ben and Julio Jones? Stewart and Hilton are more than fair for Julio, and because Ben was hurt his value is kinda muddy so I think it's a balanced enough trade, given that his only trading piece is Julio and he's already sent me a couple 3 for 3 trades.
somehow i missed that about being the #3.

i think that trade is pretty even.

in other news my .5ppr keeper league is looking pretty unstoppable. we have it set so that you keep 3 plyers and you lose a draft pick 2 rounds ahead of where you picked them. 1 & 2 rounds can't be kept.

i took Ivory in the 8th, Brown in the 11th, and Eifert in the 14th.



Matthews and Maclin were huge busts that i doubt i can get any value for, but i'm considering trading Hill/Johnson for another good WR. i dunno. maybe package Marshall in there.

EDIT: what about Johnson/Marshall for Hopkins?
 
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WaterBomb

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Guys help, I dunno whether to start LeGarrette Blount or Dez Bryant in my flecks spot this week. I know Dez is saying he's back this week, but he's not 100% and they have Matt Castle at QB. Blount, on the other hand, plays Thursday night so I would have to commit to him early. He dropped a goose egg on me last week (actually a -0.3 pts) so I dunno if I can trust him either. What do :(
 

Stallion

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Guys help, I dunno whether to start LeGarrette Blount or Dez Bryant in my flecks spot this week. I know Dez is saying he's back this week, but he's not 100% and they have Matt Castle at QB. Blount, on the other hand, plays Thursday night so I would have to commit to him early. He dropped a goose egg on me last week (actually a -0.3 pts) so I dunno if I can trust him either. What do :(
I had to check to see it wasn't for our League A matchup that you were asking for advice on before offering my help, but definitely do Bryant. I hate starting a NE power running back in all non vs. Colts situations.
 

WaterBomb

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I just worry that something will happen with Bryant and they'll downgrade him after Thursday has already happened. With byes that would force me to put Andre Ellington in my flecks :(
 
I just worry that something will happen with Bryant and they'll downgrade him after Thursday has already happened. With byes that would force me to put Andre Ellington in my flecks :(
bryant is the best choice. ellington could actually prove to be useful, arizona is playing the browns after all.

no blount bc #belitricks
 
and Dion Lewis is likely to play.

looks like John Brown might not play, meaning i have to throw Maclin in my line-up and hope Detroit stays shitty.

also leaning towards starting Chris Johnson against the Browns instead of Eifert vs. Steelers.
 

Mr.E

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No time to do this earlier, would've liked to do it before the Thursday game anyway, but I thought I'd do a mid-season writeup for funsies.

The Grand Mr.E Smogon League A Review: Mid-Season Edition!

Let us see how reality has laughed at my pre-season predictions. Current standings:

#1 The American Dreams [tad38] (5-2, 876 Points For [#1], 703 Points Against [#3]) Predicted: distant 12th
#2 Shady's Party [Stallion] (5-2, 859 points [#2], 667 against [#2]) Predicted: 10th
#3 kd24 drafts first [kd24] (5-2, 820 points [#3], 749 against [#7]) Predicted: 3rd
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#4 Big Ass TDs [Huy] (4-3, 790 points [#5], 732 against [#6]) Predicted: 4th
#5 Walking Wounded [WaterBomb] (4-3, 716 points [#6], 707 against [#4]) Predicted: 11th
#6 Two Steaks Bastards [moot] (4-3, 694.14 points [#T8], 798 against [#11]) Predicted: 8th
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#7 Adrian Beat Her Son [Texas] (3-4, 795 points [#4], 750 against [#8]) Predicted: 2nd
#8 Industrial Justice [Mr.E] (3-4, 694.14 points [#T8], 764 against [#10]) Predicted: 1st
#9 Punts With A C [biggie] (3-4, 693 points [#10], 709 against [#5]) Predicted: 9th
#10 Like a Kevin Boss [makiri] (3-4, 599 points [#11], 646 against [#1]) Predicted: 6th
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#11 Duston MoP [MoP] (2-5, 708 points [#7], 829 against [#12]) Predicted: 5th
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#12 Sweet Cuppin' Cakes [Dubulous] (1-6, 562 points [#12], 751 against [#9]) Predicted: 7th

Yes, me and moot are literally tied in points scored despite decimal scoring. Semi-messy but it's the best I can do without code or tables or whatever the hell. What's that? Oh, my predicted bottom three occupy three of the top five spots currently? Fantasy football is funny that way, eh. Let's take a closer look to see how that might've happened.
#1 The American Dreams [tad] (Preseason: 12th)
[QB] Dalton, Wilson [RB] Ivory, Lewis, D. Johnson Jr., Randle, Cobb
[WR] Megatron, Marshall, SSS, Randle, Stevie Johnson [TE] Gronk [DST] Haushka, BUFFALO
"I think his team is unquestionably the worst, but it's not so horrible that good management and maybe one lucky break couldn't put him in the driver's seat." Well, well, well... So how? Wilson hasn't been great, Joseph Randle has sucked and he dropped Freeman (whoops). However, Dalton and Lewis have been two excellent waiver grabs that have more than made up for faltering Week 1 starters and many of his other players have been better than expected, especially old man Steve Smith. Gronk is still Gronk. Good luck and good management, bro. Also might wanna pick up a defense for this week. *ahem*

#2 Shady's Party [Stallion] (Preseason: 10th)
[QB] Rofls, Bortles [RB] Gurley, Martin, L.Murray, Jennings
[WR] Green, Decker, John Brown, Moncrief, Amendola [TE] Olsen, Barnidge [DST] Boswell, DENVER
Did I say Decker as a WR2 is gross in a bad way? Because it turns out John Brown as a WR2 is pretty good and Decker as a WR3 is gross in a good way. Jamaal Charles who? The Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin, has re-emerged as a viable fantasy starter and he hit the jackpot on Gurley. He's even fought through Big Ben's injury with a surprisingly competent Bortles pickup... and let's not forget the Denver pickup.

#3 kd24 drafts first [kd24] (Preseason: 3rd)
[QB] Brady, Palmer [RB] Forte, David Johnson, Morris, K.Williams
[WR] Beckham, Allen, James Jones, Ma.Floyd, White [TE] Graham [DST] Catanzaro, GREEN BAY, PHILADELPHIA
Results as expected, not as I expected them to come. What I thought was amazing depth is his major weakness right now: Foster back on IR and Morris busting have left his RB corps in shambles and his WR depth is nonexistent, though at least his starters are good. Graham has been underwhelming but serviceable. Really though Brady is just on another level right now and seriously carrying his team.

#4 Big Ass TDs [Huy] (Preseason: 4th)
[QB] Brees [RB] Freeman, Hill, Riddick, Vereen, Gordon, Mathews
[WR] D.Thomas, Cooper, Snead, Robinson [TE] Thomas, Rodgers [DST] Crosby, SEATTLE
As expected, and unlike with kd pretty much how I expected him to do it. Turns out Cooper is pretty good, Robinson is even better, and Snead was a nick waiver grab even so good depth here. Brees hasn't been so hot but Huy won the Devonta Freeman sweepstakes, so who the fuck cares.

#5 Walking Wounded [WB] (Preseason: 11th)
[QB] Ryan, Romo, Taylor [RB] L.Bell, Woodhead, McCoy
[WR] Hilton, M.Bryant, Boldin, D.Jackson [TE] Gillmore, Sefarian-Jenkins [DST] Tucker, NEW YORK JETS
Did anyone expect Danny Woodhead to be the #3 scoring RB in da lee? I sure as hell didn't.

#6 Two Steaks Bastards [moot] (Preseason: 8th)
[QB] Newton, Flacco [RB] Chris Johnson, CJA, D.Murray, Michael
[WR] Sanders, Garcon, VJax, Ginn, Washington [TE] Watson, Daniels [DST] Gostkowski, NEW ENGLAND
So much for that RB depth, Anderson's been a huge bust and Murray had a historically slow start. WRs are kinda sorta okay, Andre Johnson turned out to be worthless but at least Garcon is alright? TE streamer. 8th in points and second most scored against... I honestly have no clue how he's 6th right now in the standings. At least he has Gostkowski.

#7 Adrian Beat Her Son [Texas] (Preseason: 2nd)
[QB] UNSTOPPABLE ELI MANNING [RB] Gore, Blount, Bernard, Spiller, McCluster
[WR] Julio Jones, Edelman, Cobb, Andre Johnson, Woods [TE] Bennett, Rudolph [DST] Bryant, CINCINNATI
Judging by points, his record is mostly a product of bad luck so far and he hopes to regress to the mean in the second half of the season. Nothing to see here, everything's mostly as expected. His WR corps are godly and while Spiller has been a bust, Bernard has been the slightly better RB among Cincy's corps and Blount is decent albeit inconsistent. Depth is questionable but if he can avoid injury, he should at least make the playoff race interesting.

#8 Industrial Justice [Mr.E] (Preseason: 1st)
[QB] Tannehill [RB] Miller, Stewart, Hillman, McFadden
[WR] A.Brown, Evans, Maclin, Diggs, Austin [TE] Gates, Green, Clay [DST] McManus, MINNESOTA
So what the hell happened to me? Joe Philbin mostly. Tannehill's been more competent in fantasy than on the field, at least, but unfortunately the pre-London Dolphins just straight up forgot how to run the ball so Miller Weeks 1-4 was a huge bust. Jonathan Stewart didn't become the bellcow back in Carolina following DeAngelo Williams' departure, Cam Newton did. And nobody wanted to fucking trade me a running back. >:O Believe me, I fucking tried. Evans was slowed by injury, as was Brown indirectly by Big Ben's injury. Can I turn it around? I think so, as all of those names are trending upward post-BYEs and post-injuries, but it's a ways up still. Gates handcuffed by Green should continue to be sneaky good at TE.

#9 Punts With A C [biggie] (Preseason: 9th)
[QB] Rodgers, Stafford [RB] Hyde, Lynch, Yeldon, Sims
[WR] Hopkins, Tate, Wright, R.Matthews, Lockett [TE] Cameron, Ebron [DST] Santos, ARIZONA
While Hopkins has been ridiculous, the rest of his WR corps are as pitiful as originally advertised. He's down here because his RB corps haven't picked up the slack as expected. Yeldon's turned out to be alright and Sims was a decent pickup last week I didn't want to waste my waiver claim on (got McFadden this week out of it after missing Charmander a couple weeks before), but Hyde and Lynch are the expected starters and they've both been plagued by injury so far.

#10 Like a Kevin Boss [makiri] (Preseason: 6th)
[QB] Chad Pennington, Fitzpatrick [RB] Peterson, Charmander, Abdullah
[WR] Jeffery, Benjamin, J.Matthews, Wallace, Marvin Jones, Harris, Walters [TE] Witten [DST] Vinatieri, ST. LOUIS
TFW Peyton Manning is the 29th "best" fantasy quarterback... feels bad man. :( Good at WR but Coleman's injury and Abudllah's failure to break out of the shackles that is Detroit's backfield situation left his RB corps in shambles until he finally blew his waiver priority on West a couple weeks back. That combined with Manning's inexplicable performance has set up zerowing the bomb.

#11 Duston MoP [MoP] (Preseason: 5th)
[QB] Rivers [RB] Forsett, Ingram, Blue
[WR] Landry, Crabtree, LaFell, Hurns, D.Adams, D.Bryant [TE] Eifert, Walker [DST] Brown, CAROLINA
Bad luck like Texas, except MoP's opponents are completely decimating him on a weekly basis and his "Julio Jones" has been on the bench for the past six weeks so his scoring is down to average. Romo too, though Rivers being the #2 QB in fantasy currently has made that one moot. Eifert was a great pickup, Hurns too, Landry's been better than expected. With Dez returning soon, he could be poised to make a run... but the extra loss he has on everyone else will probably damn him in the end.

#12 Sweet Cuppin' Cakes (Preseason: 7th)
[QB] Luck, Cutler [RB] Lacy, Ellington, Starks, Matt Jones, J.Bell
[WR] Cooks, Fitzgerald, T. Smith, Watkins, Mi.Floyd [TE] Kelce [DST] Bailey, HOUSTON
Lacy's busted so far, Luck's busted so far... Ellington, Cooks, Watkins busts. Other than Fitzgerald being elite again now that he has an actual NFL quarterback throwing to him once more, nothing else has gone dubs' way this year. He's trending up but some of that preseason mojo is gone for good -- Ellington's straight up done -- and I think he's too far in the hole at this point to catch up. It's not impossible, we've had multiple 7-7 playoff teams in the league before let alone 8-6, but I don't see him doing more than playing spoiler.

My not-so-bold predictions are that Texas moves up to grab the 4th playoff spot and kd falls down a little to miss out along with me. :( I still don't trust JStew, and even if he exceeds expectations and my record makes the cut I'll miss out based on the points tiebreaker. (I'm 100+ behind Texas and the current top four.) I expect some regression out of Brady and/or James Jones, plus kd's depth scares me especially when Beckham and Allen are both always nicked up.
 
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woe is me i have too much talent on my team. :'(

FLEX stressing about starting the right 2 of these 3: Woodhead/Eifert/CJ?K with Hill/JBrown available too but clearly not as good choices as the others.
 
woe is me i have too much talent on my team. :'(

FLEX stressing about starting the right 2 of these 3: Woodhead/Eifert/CJ?K with Hill/JBrown available too but clearly not as good choices as the others.
in 2 weeks if I can't get a trade i'm going to have to drop tyler eifert or allen robinson to get a quarterback, unless I can find someone better to ride out the season with than Eli (please)

I have Bell, Ingram, Allen Robinson, TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall, and Tyler Eifert starting for me every week, Dez Bryant on the bench, and I'm still 3-4. #skillbasedgame

go with CJ and Eifert though imo (Browns run defense is probably 32nd in the league, Steelers use cover 2 that leaves them susceptible to TEs). Woodhead only if it's PPR, but if it is you should probably be starting him in a RB spot over whoever else you're using
 
gonna try and load up on RB from the last place team in my league, he (like Killah) has to run Eli every week at QB... xD I have Newton/Rivers.

guy has Gore/Miller/McFadden/Lacy/Charcandrick West so he's fkn stacked there. really not sure who to take though?

Gore has the best floor while Miller seems to have the best ceiling and probably best rest of season. McFadden looked really good but who knows if he stays healthy/starting. Lacy confirmed to be in committee. West is ok, I had Charles too which gives me extra incentive for him even though it shouldn't. might try to 2 for 2 him with a WR...
 

WaterBomb

Two kids no brane
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Killah I'd drop Marshall before dropping Robinson or Eifert. Fitzpatrick will only get worse as the season progresses and if for some reason they let Geno start again that'll be even worse. Robinson is just getting tons of targets every week.
 

Mr.E

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I wouldn't drop Robinson either but lol dropping Marshall. Drop Eli and deal with whoever you end up with. Hell, he should still be there to pick back up after the BYE anyway unless somebody grabs him just to dick with you.
 
the sad part is that everyone in my league is an asshole and no one ever trades

you'd think shopping one of those WRs with Eli would be a pretty easy upgrade at QB, but even the 1-6 guy is infatuated with his team :((

gonna try and load up on RB from the last place team in my league, he (like Killah) has to run Eli every week at QB... xD I have Newton/Rivers.

guy has Gore/Miller/McFadden/Lacy/Charcandrick West so he's fkn stacked there. really not sure who to take though?

Gore has the best floor while Miller seems to have the best ceiling and probably best rest of season. McFadden looked really good but who knows if he stays healthy/starting. Lacy confirmed to be in committee. West is ok, I had Charles too which gives me extra incentive for him even though it shouldn't. might try to 2 for 2 him with a WR...
doing yourself a disservice if you aim for anything less than Miller imo. I have a feeling Lacy will have a good last 2 months of the year, but that won't start this week. Lacy actually has p bad asthma, so I wouldn't count on him getting much work in Denver. if you feel good about him you can probably buy even lower this upcoming week.

I wouldn't count on McFadden staying injury free now that he'll have the load, the Chefs suck, and Gore is only OK but has a good playoff schedule (jags-texans-dolphins). Miller is definitely the one to go for.
 
You can't drop any of those studs and reward someone in your league for not trading with you

Just drop Eli if you can't spin a trade. He's nothing more than a hit or miss low-end QB1 anyway
 

WaterBomb

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Mr.E I'm probably going to accept that trade but since it wouldn't process til week 9 anyway I'm going to wait until this week is played to make sure nobody gets hurt (woodhead included)
 
in 2 weeks if I can't get a trade i'm going to have to drop tyler eifert or allen robinson to get a quarterback, unless I can find someone better to ride out the season with than Eli (please)

I have Bell, Ingram, Allen Robinson, TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall, and Tyler Eifert starting for me every week, Dez Bryant on the bench, and I'm still 3-4. #skillbasedgame

go with CJ and Eifert though imo (Browns run defense is probably 32nd in the league, Steelers use cover 2 that leaves them susceptible to TEs). Woodhead only if it's PPR, but if it is you should probably be starting him in a RB spot over whoever else you're using
yeah ditch Eli before dropping any of those others, goodness.

it's .5ppr, but my starting RBs are Ivory/Miller.

anyway, didn't fuckin' matter this week. everyone underperformed. puts me at 6-2 in that league.

Eli + Odell finally paid off in my standard league. going to be moving up to 3-5. woo.
 

WaterBomb

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yeah ditch Eli before dropping any of those others, goodness.

it's .5ppr, but my starting RBs are Ivory/Miller.

anyway, didn't fuckin' matter this week. everyone underperformed. puts me at 6-2 in that league.

Eli + Odell finally paid off in my standard league. going to be moving up to 3-5. woo.
Lol well now he can safely drop Bell so the decision was made for him!
 
i was laughing at the guy in my money league when he lost bell this week (last week he also lost foster) till i realized i had bell in my smogon league :(

now im probably going to lose this week, and next week im going to have to put out a lineup without BELL, my rb2 (forsett), my wr2s (brown and maclin) and my kicker. and my backup running back, gore, is playing denver, as well as my backup wr2, moncrief. hell, even my wr1 marshall is going to be playing without any sort of serviceable QB for the foreseeable future.

basically, shit has hit the fan.
 

Mr.E

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Yo WB I'm cancelling the trade not because I think Woodhead is bad suddenly but mostly for other reasons. Woodhead getting no fucking touches this week feels like an abberration, but since kd accepted Diggs for Palmer 1) I don't wanna be without a third WR for Brown's Week 11 bye 2) I don't want to deal with Woodhead's Week 10 bye. Still, I'll probably come up with a new offer tonight before you see this post anyway, maybe for two RBs instead of RB/WR since you lost Bell now. :/

anyway, real reason for post is grats to our bro kd24 on his $1000


 
thinking about selling high on Eli and trying to send Eli + Marshall to someone starting Alex Smith for Julio Jones. dude also has Antonio Brown somehow.

thoughts?

EDIT: i have Tannehill on the bench.
 
I just lost Bell, Allen, and Forte all on one team. T_T

At least my smogon league team is still on a roll despite losing Foster and now Steve Smith.

thinking about selling high on Eli and trying to send Eli + Marshall to someone starting Alex Smith for Julio Jones. dude also has Antonio Brown somehow.

thoughts?

EDIT: i have Tannehill on the bench.
I doubt you could pull that off unless the owner is really desperate but it never hurts to try.
 
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