Ok, I know it's a bit late, but this is the analysis of the winner rate of the semi finals, won by
Miridy.
The rate starts with a pretty deep analysis talking about the similitude with tour players, Blunder in this case, so knowing how the team works. Then he explained which kind of weaknesses the team has, mentioning the no ice resistances and at the same time the 3 ice weaknesses, with only Mega Lopunny after the Mega Evolution beeing able to outspeed Weavile, this means that anytime Weavile comes in it kills a member of your team with little to no effort. Manaphy is the only member of the team which is able to take a hit from Weavile, but even then knock off is a 2HKO and there are some chances that Icicle Crash + Knock Off + Stealth Rocks can kill Manaphy since it has no Leftovers, nevertheless Manaphy does not have an immediate way to threaten Weavile other than Scald burns, how he said. Another problem Miridy mentioned is Mega Alakazam, since it outspeeds every member of the team and beeing able to 2HKO Tornadus-T with Psychic after Stealth Rock, and at the same time Tornadus cannot OHKO. The rest of the team is either ohkoed or does not have enough power to scare Alakazam (Manaphy) or is the stealth rocks setter so it is not difficult to bring said 'mon in the ohko range (Garchomp). Mega Gardevoir threats the team as well, beeing able to OHKO Garchomp and Amoonguss as well, not having a safe switch-in. Then there is a nice explanation about Shed Shell Manaphy, mentioning that Shed Shell + Pursuit helps against Gothitelle, which is right, but Manaphy does not have enough power, Chansey is not 2HKOed after 2 Tail Glow even with Scald burns, Unaware Clefable can stall Manaphy with Moonlight and threatening slowly with Moonblast, and Tyranitar doesn't help against these problems. She talked about how much effort this team puts on Manaphy, to take hits, and how this 'mon doesn't have too much longevity.
He talked about Ice Beam Mega Lopunny, talking about how good it is for not taking contact secondary damange, which is great, but at the same time it fails to 2HKO Tank Chomp and a chance to fail the 2HKO on defensive Landorus-T, which is a guarantee 2HKO with Ice Punch, even with max hp max def, so that's why he suggested to change Ice Beam with Ice Punch.
The second change is Rain Dance > Energy Ball, beeing able to 2HKO Chansey and 93% to 2HKO Clefable after Stealth Rock with no burns, since Clefable is pretty pressured under rain because of Moonlight nerf, and Wish + Protect version opens up moveset problems for Clefable and potential dangerous mindgames against the Clefable user, getting some problems with burns. With this change Shed Shell on Manaphy starts beeing useful.
Rain Dance does not help only against these two 'mons it also helps against modest Charizard Y or at worst speed tieing timid ones by changing weathers, potentially locking them on a nerfed Solar Beam so that Manaphy can attack with a powerful water stab under rain, and against Slowbro, who actually loves coming in against mega Lopunny in order to spread either Thunder Wave or Scald against the switch in, the same could be said about Special Defensive Heatran with Toxic/Lava against Tornadus-Therian or early game Mega Sableye since the team does not really have a real burn absorber, especially since Manaphy lacks leftovers and Tyranitar has Sand Stream so residual damage is even more lethal, how Miridy said.
As second change, Latias > Tornadus-T, supporting better Manaphy, against the same Manaphy checks, with 100% accuracy, against Amoonguss, Mega Venusaur and Breloom, and not even KOed by Rock Tomb, and the most important reason and explanation he picked Latias and not Latios, usually Latias is inferior, is because of Healing Wish, which helps and support Manaphy and Mega Lopunny giving them back full health and recover from any status. With this change the team still be weak to Weavile, Mega Gardevoir and Mega Alakazam, so the last change was Special Defensive Klefki over Amoonguss, with a specific EVs spread allowing Klefki to have a 56% change to OHKO Weavile after Life Orb damage with Play Rough, considering no Stealth Rocks, a 80% chance to 2HKO Mega Gardevoir and a clean 2HKO on Mega Alakazam after Stealth Rock, and still having enough bulky to avoid the 2HKO from Mega Alakazam's Focus Blast or Hidden Power Fire after Stealth Rocks. Miridy suggested Heal Block over Magnet Rise on Klefki, which is a gimmick majority of Magnet Rise's targets, which blocks defensive threats such as Clefable or Mega Venusaur.
With those changes the weakness for Hippowdon, Mega Diancie and Excadrill raised, so as a very last change, Surf on Latias as a last move, OHKOing Excadrill and Mega Diancie, and beeing able to beat mixed Hippowdon without the Special Attack drop. Excadrill cannot OHKO Latias and the raise of Hidden Power Fire, gives Mega Diancie a 349 speed, beeing not able to outspeed Latias, at the same time Surf is not expected. She put some other options, such as Psychic over Ice Beam on Manaphy and a different EVs spread on Mega Lopunny to 2HKO standard tank chomp after Fake Out with Ice Beam and clean 2HKO Landorus-T.
Thanks to the great analysis, the explanation of the changes, the metagame knowledge and an overview which explains how to face some kind of threats, Miridy get the highest mark between all the partecipants and reached the FINALS.
Congrats!
