NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

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Texas Cloverleaf

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Toast and Vanillish are still top scum targets, I'm getting more concerned about acid's role as making more sense from a scum perspective

After that, assuming we hit two scum, I start looking at Moody/Former as possible scum and inside my town block for a mole

Aubisio is the only 100% conf!town in my eyes (+me obv), blazade/fort/martin/paperblade highly probable town, whydon is town if blank flips scum, haruno is highly towny

smashlloyd is seemingly conf!town by having survived targeting haruno (claimed) barring a scum team of them, his role is a concern though as it matches the pattern knights had

Walrein Paperblade the OP of the thread has paper officially subbing in and IT WOULD BE LOVELY IF THE HOST HAD SAID SOMETHING ABOUT THIS

it's still boggling my mind how all the evidence is suggesting blazade is town yet my mole paranoia is constantly aimed at him, probably because he's played this game totally different from how I've seen him play town in every other NOC (where he died n1 every time lol)

Reminder that with a 21 man set up and a confirmed neutral we're looking at 4/5 scum depending on set up=5/6 town targets having killed two. LYLO right now is at 9 players left
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Self-reminder that vanillish's vig claim seems highly likely to be a deterrent from targeting from town roles and that he registered one night on the idle checker which could be an indication that he dropped his gun and idled the other night (haruno's vig idled both nights) or that he could be something else


Whydon given you're now being more generally town read due to your claim I do want to hear more from you on what you think is probable for alignment flips based on what we have so far. I also want to hear what you meant with this post that you never followed up on, as well as an explanation for why you have fewer than 1% of the posts itt:
Whydon said:
I'm not inactive, I just honestly have nothing to say. I'll contribute more tomorrow, but I'm just waiting for something to pop up on my end before I start doing anything. It's only the second day.

You'll hear more from me on the third day.
Did this give you any information to follow up on?
I gave you my results from the second and third days, fourth day there were no night actions.

I'm going to go back to Blank Slate's posts and see if he's posted any "results". Also seeing how he voted is good too.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Toast and Vanillish are still top scum targets, I'm getting more concerned about acid's role as making more sense from a scum perspective
To clarify this, acid claimed he was immune until all of his targets died. I recall seeing someone (Blazade iirc) under the assumption he was immune until one of his targets died. That plus gaining shots to counter (probable) town roles is concerning
 
The flavor of Bizarro-oneshots isn't town-looking, now if acid was scum he probably could have come up with a less suspicious claim so I'm leaning towards neutral/maybe town on him, scum is possible but given his lack of activity there isn't much material to figure it out.

Blazade's claim strikes me as weird because my understanding of it is that he spends his nights gaining shots and doesn't use them? Flavor evokes neutral/scum more than town too.
 
I have been using my abilities, I safeguarded texas (reasoning: Safeguarding colorcaste destroys protection on him, so the hedge was to stop texas from getting hooked so he could protect colorcaste) and picked up another safeguard from colorcaste. (Reasoning, thought I might get a hook or something weird from this) Pretty sure I mentioned my SG use but not my ability use already.

I didn't get anything from lightwolf since he was OGed night one

Pressing me on flavor is unfair considering the rules of this game.

I haven't been as active and proactive as I've usually been but in the early days I was incredibly opinionated and people still hadn't been listening to me until evidence started coming my way lol. We've solved a fair amount with roles and I've agreed where I do and stood up where I needed to against silly logic. Otherwise my big problem has been finding/remembering the information I need to use, I'm hosting a guest at my place so I haven't exactly had time this week but for now I think Knight's past votes and opinions should be very telling.
 
Only notable townread from Knights was Vanillish as far as I can remember, otherwise he seemed fairly noncommittal.
Safeguarding now that the hooker seem to be gone has a big chance of hurting town more than scum though
 
Mafia could have a hooker or something more nefarious and lie about it.

I chose someone more likely to be fucked with by scum than investigated by town for a reason

First you accuse me of not using my abilities then blame me for using them.
 
I only recalled seeing you claim who you had gotten a shot off, not who you had targeted with a shot.
Now that we know a mafia hooker is down, safeguarding probable omniguard/inspect targets seem pretty risky.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Walrein are you alive?

Went back and did the grunt work


texas cloverleaf: JOAT - cop failed on lightwolf n1, roleblocked n2
smashlloyd20: hooker/tracker - claims to have targeted haruno n1, targeted moody n2
moodycloud: watcher - saw blank slate visiting asek n1, claims action failed n2
acidphoenix: pick 5 (blaz/smash/knights/martin/asek) get one shots, invincible until all die - claims knowledge of smash as tracker, claims confirmation of blazade role NOTE: Moody suggests neutral sounding
blazade: picks up shots of opposing roles of night targets (safeguard)
fort colorcastle: omniguard targeting lightwolf
martin: reviver (revived walrein) and day end lynch redirect
cancerous: mason+role cop
walrein: TOWN one-shot veteran bodyguard
shubaka: plane builder
knights: roleblock persuader (targeted texas n2 successfully)
asek: mailman+announcer
former hope: conditional strongman guilty conscience vigilante (condition=BPV popping), limited use kill hook
blank slate: role cop+backup cop (claims inspect on lightwolf+asek n1 and and asek+lightwolf (not visited due to successful check on asek) n2) NOTE: major contradiction
whydon: faction cop (walrein+martin)
aubisio: mason+ability doubler (pancake-->haruno)
ButteredToast: night immune on specific nights
vanillish: veteran with droppable gun, guilty conscience at 2 town kills
pancake: neutral who cares
haruno: scum killing veteran

lightwolf: activity checker
n1 idlers: former hope, martin, haruno, pancake
n2 idlers: pancake, vanillish, martin, haruno

knights did not claim n1 action, did not show as idle -> scum killer since no persuade
butteredtoast claimed only night immune, did not show as idle

former hope was first to accuse martin of being neutral, did so BEFORE dayend role: noted


Notes:
knights is always the lynch today

smashlloyd and haruno leads to a possible role conflict. either smashlloyd lied about his role targeting Haruno OR he's conf!town for targeting the veteran OR haruno lied about his role. Option 2 is by far the most likely, most likely tying Haruno and smash as town together

ButteredToast is lying about the full extent of his role

acidphoenix has a very neutral sounding role with claimed immunity while his 5 targets are alive
Paperblade
 

Haruno

Skadi :)
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Hold the fuck up, im super confused by game setup rn. I don't see this as anything but a guaranteed win for town from the very beginning at the rate we're going.

Texas Cloverleaf with 4/5 scum and seeing as how there's only been 1 kill/night I don't see how this game is even winnable for scum.

with 21 player even factoring out the revive, that still means that mafia needs 6 full cycles of straight up myslynches + failed kills, no matter who is on mafia I fail to see how this is remotely doable. unless mafia are much more powerful than what we've been shown? Knights doesn't seem too powerful in the overall scheme of things since I don't see how a roleblocker + persuade is really that strong until very very late in the game.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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I'm operating under the assumption that this is standard set up where mafia is 25-33% of town

That's kind of the nature of large NOCs though, town has a lot more weapons at their disposal if they're able to coordinate effectively, which we have been able to in large part thanks to LightWolf's ability

On the other side though, such a large set up makes scum moling the optimal strategy and all but necessary to win. I'm operating under the assumption that at least one of my town block is a scum mole, but that doesn't need to be addressed until after we take out other scum and approach LYLO.
 
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