Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
One-lining reads / shitposting I guess?
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NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN
- Thread starter Panic Station
- Start date
- Status
The Removes have it. The Living Winners clause no longer applies.
A couple extra details I'd like to mention:
1) I'll be tracking player activity in case of AWOL permaidlers. I won't count cycles which last less than 24 hours, but if you miss 3 cycles in a row, I'm trawling for subs.
2) Gunbearers can shoot at any time before the deadline. Keep this in mind if you have The Gun and the cycle deadline is at an inconvenient time/day for you.
A couple extra details I'd like to mention:
1) I'll be tracking player activity in case of AWOL permaidlers. I won't count cycles which last less than 24 hours, but if you miss 3 cycles in a row, I'm trawling for subs.
2) Gunbearers can shoot at any time before the deadline. Keep this in mind if you have The Gun and the cycle deadline is at an inconvenient time/day for you.
I'll look at it again, alongside a few others who caught my attention - I noticed a string of Josh and Fort Colorcastle posts, and Empoof caught my eye when I was doing a cursory check to make sure it wasn't purely a bias.
FORT COLORCASTLE:
9 posts when I started writing this, 3 of them votes re: living winners.
The 4th post suggests shooting scumhunters last, and is pro-Haruno's hunting
The 5th briefly argues against Hitmonleet's sorta wall of text which was anti-Haruno and anti-Former Hope. Means Fort Colorcastle is established as pro-Haruno, and slightly pro-Former Hope. However, the shortness of his post, and fact that I found Hitmonleet's reasoning there a bit poor (only 1 of that long list is highly unlikely), I'm not gonna say it's full buddying yet.
Post 6 continues this, a brief elaboration on numbers.
The next 3 are just a bit of theory re: what sort of person to shoot
Verdict: has not yet come to conclusions, though the cycle is still young. Little contribution other than as anti-Hitmonleet. Slightly scum, and if he is, then one of Haruno and Former Hope probably are, too. If either of those two are flipped in any way, then Fort Colorcastle is slightly more in their direction.
BLAZADE:
Also 9 posts. A couple that aren't important (living winners, confirming)
The third post is actually even WORSE than I thought when I first read it. First calls for IF there's policy lynching, THEN going after "idlers like Flyhn." Then, and I missed this the previous time, argues that we shouldn't telegraph our potential lynch thoughts too much. Okay, I can see a tiny point there, since it prevents us from having to WIFOM "why did they pick this person" like we have already with Texas, but isn't that information better for our gunman to make judgments based on?
The fourth is that go hero post. More on that below; fifth post justifies it as a misread, implying he thought the hero scenario was just a probable case.
The sixth is pro-Empoof, backing up Josh. As of writing this, I have not yet gotten to either of them on my list yet.
Post 7: suggests shooting someone to validate their reads, EXCEPT as an idler. I can see now why Texas feels I misread what Blazade said, and I suppose I did. That does not change the fact that this post feels off, compared to his third post. Any policy shooting on idlers I can see to get rid of the (I hope this is the right word) chaff would make this more efficient later, and remove scapegoats, but it would also give the mafia more time to plan and analyze everything. And the idlers would likely forget to shoot anyone in the first place, which would cause another mafia-selected gunbearer and bring us back to square one, only smaller.
Post 8, his reply to my accusation! Names his reasoning in fourth post as a false assumption, or a worst-case scenario, says he's "not defeatist except in the D1 NOC sense." He also says that shooting the actives to validate their reads (which he previously said was good logic) can be delayed for those making good reads and connections, but he also says he reinforced the point by saying that. I don't see how what he said before could have implied that delay.
9th: can't objectively read Asek and Yeti.
Verdict: Doesn't feel right at all. Could just not click with my thought process, and the contradictions could be well within standard human error. But it feels like a forming pattern to me, so Scummy, and if he's scum then we should take a hard look at Asek, Empoof, and Yeti (and a few extra glances at Josh). I also feel his early posts mean there's no chance that he and Flyhn are both mafia, so if one is, then other is perfectly clean.
JOSH:
(Oh, no. 29 posts already. This'll be a pain...)
1-5, 9: early game junk pings and stuff re: living winners.
6: Argues against my post for policy lynching Haruno. Against policy lynching in general, even. Reads like an early attempt to steer the conversation to something useful (which is what my suggestion was meant to provoke anyway)
7: more pro-Haruno
8: Says Texas should ask, but never be asked. Seems reasonable.
10: Volunteers to be shot mid-game so he can scumhunt that way. Could be bluffing as mafia, could be honest town. Considering Deathnote NOC, I agree he should be shot, maybe around then even.
11: asks Blazade for an explanation on something re policy lynching. It's that shouldn't put our lynch ideas out too much post.
12: Joins in with how Fort Colorcastle called out Hitmonleet's bad list with the 'at least one is mafia' idea. I'm just gonna say he and Fort Colorcastle are linked against Hitmonleet now.
13: I had to spend a bit of reading the prior posts to get this. Is against calling Blazade clear on incompetence-over-malice reasoning. I'd be against him here, except see above re: Blazade's pattern.
14: Null on Fort, says Hitmonleet is scum
It's about this point I realized I missed a post somewhere, either ahead or behind. I shoulda done this five posts at a time, instead of opening all tabs at once. As such, my numbering before MAY BE OFF
Slightly pro-Haruno, then intensifies that view against Asek's question
Then argues a case against Empoof's read on MoodyCloud. Curiously, I don't see a response there.
Argues for a potential later shooting of Haruno, for similar reasons to why I agree with his prior post on volunteering to be shot.
Answers Asek's question, suggesting that, in a vacuum, Twin would be a candidate to shoot.
Snarks about Empoof-Former Hope WIFOM. More anti-WIFOM, then a segment of posts that's ??? for everyone involved. In this, he reads fh and winter as scum, me and hitmonleet as town (remarking his change in position re hitmonleet)
Verdict: Before his post changing views on hitmonleet, I was having trouble reading him. However, he's not giving much reasoning behind his reads, and was willing to change. This matches his play in Deathnote, so I'm going to say he's TOWN. If the gun falls into the hands of someone not so great at scum hunting, maybe he or Haruno as he suggested are good targets to get it back into good management.
Between him and Hitmonleet, there is AT MOST one scum. Yes, odds are in my favor, but I'm quite sure that at least one is village based on this (most likely Josh if not both, but if he's NOT town, then his changing stance on Hitmonleet wouldn't make sense if Hitmonleet is also mafia). I'd also like to say that there's a non-negligible link between him and both Haruno and Fort Colorcastle. If I'm wrong and he's mafia, then one of them is, too. If one of them is mafia, then he's instead only slightly townie. More on Empoof below.
EMPOOF:
33 posts. Already. Ow.
Spends some early posts saying Josh/Yeti scum and MoodyCloud/Blazade town. Likes MoodyCloud against Josh. Is also against shooting Haruno, then asks Flyhn why he thinks we shouldn't. Then adds UncleSam and Hitmonleet to his townreads. Sorta pro-winter-delta?
Then ??? I don't know for sure, but taken as closely to literally as I can, looks like he admits to Blazade that he was just trying to pressure Josh? Or changed his mind.
Argues for the "popcorn" post being townie, due to "air of not giving a hoot" - I strongly disagree here. That would be more mafia attempt to look like they're there when they really aren't doing much.
Some more joke posts.
Well, those posts were usually short
Verdict: Leaning slightly scummy, but I could easily see him as postcount++ town with reasonable discussion if not ideas. Would be a good target in a turn or two to validate his reads per other users.
I like how you read way too much into that post. My brain stopped at "argues against Hitmonleet's sorta wall of text" lmao, simply because ^ bolded above.
By questioning the absurdity of it, which is the impression I got.
When u 2 lazy to iso about 5 total posts in 6 pages of game on d1 of a noc
Kiddo nothing at all productive happens on d1 of a smogon noc until the very end when everyone scrambles to mislynch an obvious noobtown or idletown who doesn't know how to not appear scummy, which is then productive for the mafia as whichever oldfag was behind the mislynch (cough unclesam) they can lead a smear campaign against.
I'm looking for more answers to my question. Refusing to answer is an option but will still get you read a certain way. I'll post my conclusions once there's something to actually go off to conclude besides 1 liners and little brown nuggets of wisdom/suspicion certain players enjoy crapping out all over d1
Anyway who is the biggest threat to u
All answer
Kiddo nothing at all productive happens on d1 of a smogon noc until the very end when everyone scrambles to mislynch an obvious noobtown or idletown who doesn't know how to not appear scummy, which is then productive for the mafia as whichever oldfag was behind the mislynch (cough unclesam) they can lead a smear campaign against.
I'm looking for more answers to my question. Refusing to answer is an option but will still get you read a certain way. I'll post my conclusions once there's something to actually go off to conclude besides 1 liners and little brown nuggets of wisdom/suspicion certain players enjoy crapping out all over d1
Anyway who is the biggest threat to u
All answer
Haruno, to my sanity, for the reasons I mentioned in my policy lynch post.
Really, nobody is that much of a threat to me personally, as being town, the only way I die is through misfire or endgame.
However, I'll say Haruno/Twin, probably, since they tend to be really hard for me to read.
However, I'll say Haruno/Twin, probably, since they tend to be really hard for me to read.
hot take:
empoof puts himself out there with reads which is good
but they're unsubstantiated nonsense based on MU crap like soul reads which is bad and ultimately uninformative
about as credible if i said "i think all the libras in this game are mafia"
do your crystals vibrate at different frequencies when you say someone's name or something?????
or are u just wishing X is mafia and Y is town? let me tell u son only ditto can wish things into reality in a noc.
i could also easily see this as trying to set up loose, early connections as mafia, IE he says he thinks teammate1 and villager1 are bad, if empoof flips mafia his teammate1 gets shot (or already did flip) and villager1 gets misfired on, or villager1 and villager2 off his scumreads are not mafia and he waves away his misreads as just earlygame jonesin'
im watchin u kid.
empoof puts himself out there with reads which is good
but they're unsubstantiated nonsense based on MU crap like soul reads which is bad and ultimately uninformative
about as credible if i said "i think all the libras in this game are mafia"
do your crystals vibrate at different frequencies when you say someone's name or something?????
or are u just wishing X is mafia and Y is town? let me tell u son only ditto can wish things into reality in a noc.
i could also easily see this as trying to set up loose, early connections as mafia, IE he says he thinks teammate1 and villager1 are bad, if empoof flips mafia his teammate1 gets shot (or already did flip) and villager1 gets misfired on, or villager1 and villager2 off his scumreads are not mafia and he waves away his misreads as just earlygame jonesin'
im watchin u kid.
the problem is that that's every day in this game ?_?
I assume a soul read is the same thing as a gut read, which are by definition unsubstantiated. However, especially this early in the game, I don't see a reason to be against gut reads? Maybe he picked up on some small tone thing that doesn't have solid evidence to back it up yet, or something?
basically, what's wrong with having/posting a gut read?
If soul reads are different from gut reads, then someone please educate me.
day 1s are only useless if you go into them thinking they'll be useless. they're actually very important
If yeti's scum I should be lock clear by the way
Josh is probably town.
that's the kind of statement that tells us he's bussing >.>
except real bussing mafias wouldn't actually say that.
except WIFOM
I want empoof or ag gone
If my goal was to hard bus yeti, I'm doing it perfectly and deserve credit for it imo. Don't think I would do that to her as a partner since I consider her a good player who could live for a while.
I don't think we should shoot her yet but I still think she's mafia. If she's town she'll probably have good reads to shoot off of later in the game.
Keep deluding yourself then
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