Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — August 2012
 

Hope everyone's excited--we're just one month away from our next usage-based tier update!

I've been a busy bee the past few weeks, playing around with a bunch of new analyses, and it's my pleasure to bring back today metagame and moveset analyses! There's still more work that need to be done on both--on the metagame front, I hope to be able to define "semi-stall" vs. "full stall" vs. "offense" vs. "hyper offense" vs. "balanced" based on my new stalliness metric; with regards to moveset analyses, I'm hoping to add teammate and check/counter data--but I'm hoping the work that I've done already will be enough to satisfy you for this month.

A new version of "1337" stats are on my to-do list, but--I'll be honest--it's not a top priority.

Anyway, that's my progress report. Let's get to the data!













Additional metagames














Link to previous month's stats
http://www.smogon.com/forums/images/icons/icon2.gifJuly 2012

Tier Change Projections
Tiers will be updated next month based on three-month usage. Since the last time I posted these kinds of projections, I found this post by X-Act, who is kind of my role model in life, which says that, based on data from only two previous months, you can predict usage for the next month by weighting the previous months' stats 20:4. So if I do that to predict September's stats--rather than just assuming that they exactly mirror August's, which is what I did the last time--we get the following predictions.

Check me on these--it's a new script, and I could have easily made a typo.

• Mew down to UU from OU
• Tornadus down to UU from OU
• Meloetta down to UU from OU
• Virizion down to UU from OU
• Abomasnow down to UU from OU*
• Cofagrigus up to UU from RU
• Stoutland down to RU from UU
• Absol up to RU from NU
• Roselia down to NU from RU
• Metang down to NU from RU (there's still time, Molk!)

*Abomasnow would indeed be allowed in UU, since the UU council banned Snow Warning and thus would have removed Abomasnow from BL.

Moveset Statistics
In the interests of not wasting pastebin space on the single Delibird set that some idiot decided to use in OU, I'm only reporting the breakdowns for Pokemon in each tier that showed up at least 10 times and contributed at least 0.1% to the usage stats. The "most common sets" thing is kind of a crock, as any two sets that are even slightly different (Jolly vs. Adamant, Fire Blast vs. Overheat) don't get counted together, but I am working on an improvement that will involve cluster analysis.

Also, as I mentioned in the OP, I plan on incorporating teammate statistics into this data at some point, as well as lists of top counters/checks for each Pokemon (based on how often a Pokemon is KOed or switched out when the supposed counter is sent out).

OU
UU
RU
NU
Ubers
LC
DW OU
DW Ubers
CAP
Hackmons
Balanced Hackmons
Glitchmons
OU Suspect Test


Metagame Analyses
If you're interested in the methodology behind my metagame analyses, read here and here.

Lead Usage