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May 22nd, 2008, 6:28:07 AM   #24
Peterko
Never give up!

Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,070

I did most of these manually back then...the right anwer to your question (not taking random IVs passing into consideration) is:

1/12 x 1/5 x 1/4 = 1/240
1/12 x 1/5 x 1/4 = 1/240
1/240 + 1/240 = 1/120

your calcs were right but your assumption that the random HP wouldn´t raise the probability that much was wrong
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HP passed, one of at/speed passed and one random 31
1/12 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/32 = 2/7680
1/12 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/32 = 2/7680
1/12 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 4/7680
1/12 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 4/7680
-------------------------------------------------------
attack and speed passed, HP random 31
1/6 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/32 = 2/3840
1/6 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/32 = 2/3840
1/6 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 4/3840
1/6 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 4/3840
5/6 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 5/3840
5/6 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/32 = 5/3840
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HP passed, other 2 random
1/12 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 1/1024 = 1/81920
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one of attack/speed passed, other two random
1/6 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 1/1024 = 1/20480
1/6 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 1/1024 = 1/20480
4/6 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/1024 = 1/15360
4/6 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/1024 = 1/15360
4/6 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/1024 = 1/7680
4/6 x 4/5 x 1/4 x 1/1024 = 1/7680
----------------------------------------------------
all 3 random
3/6 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 1/32768
---------------------------------------------------
= 1/120 + 1/640 + 11/1920 + 1/2048 + 18/ 3 932 160
= 32768 + 6144 + 22528 + 1920 + 18 / 3 932 160
= 63 378 / 3 932 160

checking with the list
31/31/x/x/31/x + x/31/x/x/31/x = 63 474 / 3 932 160 = 1.614227295% = 1:62

I made a little mistake somewhere...but I´m very close to the accurate result...here you have it

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fat Bozo i know this is a pretty old topic, but i have a question about the actual calculation of some of these numbers. in particular this one: 31/31/x/x/x/31 + x/31/x/x/x/31 --> 31/31/x/x/x/31. i seem to get 1/120 whenever i try and calculate it manually (rather than the stated 1/62). i must be doing something wrong, because 1/62 is on the chart here, and also on the applet. ignoring random 31's for the time being..... the way i see it is that the hp must be passed in the first turn, with a 1/12 chance. the second IV to be passed is chosen from 10 possibilities (now that HP is not selected), and must be the atk or spd of either parent, so 4/10. the third IV to be passed is chosen from 8 possibilities (now that HP and Def are not selected), and it must be whichever of atk/spd was not chosen in the 2nd step, so this probability is 2/8. thus the probability of thw three stats being passed is 1/12 x 4/10 x 2/8 = 1/120. i know there are also random chances (eg two 31's are passed, and another 31 appears by chance) but surely these are small enough not to bring it back up to the full 1/62????? i'd appreciate some clarification from the experts, along with (possibly?) an explanation/derivation.