View Single Post
Old Mar 5th, 2009, 11:10:11 AM   #21
RBG*
It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything.
is a Super Moderatoris a Contributor to Smogon Mediais a Site Staff Alumnusis a Smogon IRC AOp Alumnusis a Researcher Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Server Moderator Alumnus
 
RBG's Avatar
 
Super Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,230
Home: Goshen Scout Reservation
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat RB Golbat View Post
11.22% chance of stealth rock being on a moveset
88.78% chance of SR not being on a moveset

.8878^6 = 48.9655734% chance of 6 pokemon not having Stealth Rock

100% - 48.9655734% = 51.0344266% of teams have Stealth Rock (just for note)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat eric the espeon View Post
Yes, I know that. But the way RB G did it assumes that the events do not affect each other, and so are evenly spread with some teams having large numbers of SRers. However the users of SR are NOT randomly distributed across teams, a team that has one SR user will be far less likely to have a second.

Without new statistics we will not be able to have an exact number, but I suspect my figure is a closer estimate.

Thanks for the stats X-Act!
Well, the other method of doing it is this:

11.22% chance of Stealth Rock being on a pokemon's moveset

6 Pokemon a team

67.32% of teams having stealth rock

I'll admit that later number sounds much better than the first number, expecially since (I think) that latter number counts for each team only having it once.
__________________
Alder: N, even if we don't understand each other, that's not a reason to reject each other. There are two sides to an argument. Is there one point of view that has all the answers? Give it some thought.

RBG is offline