I can see a 30% chance or higher being a decent benchmark, if that's a concern, as in those instances, the effect is a major factor in why that move is being used. However, if the moves are of the same type and both special/physical, such as Lava Plume and Flamethrower, then they'd also be related, as the likeliness of effect, accuracy, and Base Power all contribute to why the one move would be chosen over the other.
So, Lava Plume should be related to both Scald and Flamethrower. Scald should not be related to Flamethrower, however.
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