Smogon Community - View Single Post - Postgame A New Beginner Postgame [help why did i write so much]

penguin344 · Jul 3rd, 2012, 9:55:55 AM

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Originally Posted by Fat Draycos7

My postgame:
Night 3, I got contacts from Jimera with AOPS and TRG. I decided to kill off TRG as the less info roles, the better. I also tried to mole Solace a bit, but that didn't work out very well. I found the rest of the scum that night, mafias were the only ones that claimed to me, ironically. Investigated penguin.

Day 4, lead lynch on Toast, who eventually killed by the powers of tl;dr.

Night 4, decided that either Penguin or Yay was inspector, went with Yay. Also investigated ifm.

huh?
But yeah, agree with most of the stuff here. @AOPS, I even told you that Draycos was scum the previous day :/

Also, gonna put massive ButteredToast/me pm chain here, because why not.

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Wow. What do you think of those night kills? Didn't see that whole thing going down like that.

eh it was kinda expected
1 for the wolf, mafias get bi nightly kills
it just figures that an important villy was killed.

I mean I didn't see Tan telling the truth. Like you, I thought his role was hacked. Could of almost bet it all on it. And steam's ability could have been REALLY useful if something happened to anyone. It's like we lost a backup.

I should start to emerge a bit and try to help out with the village. I got to ask though, did you claim to MrcRanger97, because I don't know if I trust him totally and I'm kind of in a hole here...

What do you mean by that you are in a hole?

I don't really trust anyone enough to claim, but my ability could help the village if I do.

Kind of a Catch 22. That's why I kinda want your opinion on what I should do...

well, here is the thing. if you have information on who is scum, you need to speak up. I understand the predicament. I personally have claimed to ranger, as he seems clean to me.

It's nothing like that. I honestly have no clue about anything really. You're the only person I really trust not to cut my throat because of how you played with our alliance in warlight.

I'm just playing it safe. But I feel that if I don't claim in time for the night, it would hurt our chances.

Well, the village needs as many claims as we can get, otherwise we will lose for certain. I mean if you want to I will take your claim, but if you have a power role we need you. I will not force you to claim, but keep in kind that silence will draw suspicion.

I don't feel bad telling you, it's just that speculating on past mafia games, there is a 7/14 chance that you are mafia or wolf, and that's kind of too close for comfort. I'd ask for a trade of roles to fix this, but because you're my only contact, you could just kill me at night and no one would know your role.

Just saying, I thought about it and don't want to misplay and end up hurting myself/the team with my foolishness.

I completely understand. Remember, the same goes for you too.
And yeah, no matter how much I assure you I am village, I can't really confirm it to you.
Even so, I assure you that I cannot kill.

Yeah, I know. And there is the catch 22. If I'm on the one side of the 50%, I can help the village. But if I'm on the other side, I hurt the village. And the longer I wait and not help, the worse the odds could get.

The politics of the situation are very confusing :/

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I'm doing some math, might have figured out a solution.... :D

Provbblem is, it's pretty confusion.

I feel up to hearing it.

I haven't quite got the numbers to work. Damn probabiltiy. Give me a few minutes and I can make a very strong argument. Unless you want to help me with the math...

Give me the numbers and I will see what I can do.

I need the probabilities for randomly choosing each of the following without replacement on two random picks out of the current mafia population of 14, the 15 remaining alive players minus me because I can't pick myself. Work would help, because I'm trying to find my error on my work.:

Two Villagers
1 Village, 1 Mafia/Wolf
2 Mafia/Wolf

Sub set of this being:
1 Liberal Mafia/Wolf and 1 Alien Mafia/wolf
2 Mafia of same team

Well, the probably of picking a villy is 1/2, so the probability of picking two is 1/4. Same goes for when you pick between bad guys and good guys or just bad guys.

The probability of picking a liberal/wolf is 4/14, or 2/7, thus picking two would be 4/49 (this applies to any group of four)

picking a mafia of one team is more difficult. since the first pick needs to be either mafia, the odds are 6/14, or 3/7. then for the next pick, it needs to be the smae mafia, so it would be 3/7 * 2/14 (1/2), or 3/14

That's more off than what I got.

I know these are correct:

2 Village: 3/13
1 Village, 1 Mafia: 4/13
2 Mafia: 3/13

Working on the subsets of mafia, will explain my math when I'm done.

how did you get 13 ._.
unless you are counting both of us as clean, which I didn't do.

I'll explain it when I get the subsets of mafia to work. Give me a minute, something is still wrong. You ever take a probability class in high school/ College?

erm, no :P
I only have a rudimentary knowledge of probability.

I thold you this was complicated. :D

I think I messed up with the first part (that I said was certain above, foolish me) and that's why it's not working. I'll send it to you when I'm done, but it may be awhile.

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Originally Posted by Fat ButteredToast

OK, so here's my plan. I'm going to claim to two people, one of which will be you the other will be random. It's great if you agree to it and think it'll work. The plan is, I'll claim in exchange for a claim myself on the other person. I will alert both parties on who the other person I claimed too is, but I will not give them the others claim.

If you two are both village, there is no problems. I'm safe with my knowledge, everything works out peachy. This is only a 23.077% chance however, far worse than the 50% chance on just claiming to you, but hear me out some more.

If it is 1 village and 1 maifa/wolf, a 53.846% chance, things still work out well. If one of you tries to kill me, the other villager can arise suspission and get the mafia man lynched. In a sense, it will be deturant for the mafia targeting me as there will be hell to pay if they do. And if they do kill me, a me for mafia trade will be a plus for the village.

If it's two mafia of opposite teams, a 9.9% chance, the same thing happens. Same thing if it's a mafia and wolf, again at 9.9%. If one person kills be, it will expose the other teams mafia and they will most likely oust/kill the other mafia, making a me for mafia trade a + for the village. Though I won't get connected to the village like the other two, it still is effectove and a plus for the team.

The final option, the only way it's not a plus, is if I pick two mafia of the same team, which is only a 6.593% chance. Even then, I'd only be screwed the same amount as if only you were mafia.

In summary, there is a 76.923% chance (2V and 1V 1M) I get in contact with the village. Far higher than the 50% if I just trust you. There is a 13.187% chance that I get two bad guys, but if they act on it, they get screwed over because the other will most likely kill the one remaining. And finally there is only a 6.593% chance that I get screwed over and don't help the village, which is far better than the 50% chance before.

By doing this I improve my odds to help the village and to get something going. All I can ask is do you feel comforatable doing it? I've thought of a way that will allow the 2nd person I claim to to be pretty close to random, so just tell me if you're in. The odds work for you too by the way if you're village.

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are you comfortable claiming to draycos? please, respond to this, because we are running out of time in the day and I want to know whether or not you are afk.

If I get some info on why he was a step away from being lynched, than yeah, maybe I'll think about it. I got a role that right now would be pretty useful, but if I missplay and end up doing mafia work, it would be a death sentance to our team after jim's comments. I'm hoping that he is really village and is just making a play to get mafia claims for the village, but I can't be certain.

I'm also kind of confused why this is the first time I've heard from you. You've been on multiple times, posted in the forum, was private messaging someone other than me after the Night 2 actions...

Alright, here is what has happened:
First of all, I've been very busy in the past few days. Second of all, I've been musing over the plan you suggested and the recent developments, and it didn't seems like it would be good if any mafia were found.

On draycos:
Ranger had been previously trusted jimera to be not scum. Draycos claimed to be a mayor with a one time inspect. Naturally, he seemed to be scummy at first. But he was the one who came up with the chewbacca role pm. We figrued either draycos was scum or jimera was. So, we tried to test this with a lynch on jimera that was one away from majortiy, with draycos as mayor. however, it didn't work. This was because aops screwed up (multiple times) voting. Then, they thought draycos was scum because of this. However, I proposed that we clean him through this: 5 vote for draycos, 4 for jimera, with the mayor (draycos) voting for jimera. Thus, if draycos was mayor, it would tie the vote, and we'd know he was clean. The vote was tied, so jimera was scum. (And now he came out with it, furthering the veribility of the claim)

Draycos was never actually being "lynched". He was being cleaned.

It seems like you are trying to bully me into claiming while trying to get around my plan that I outlined and thought over. While your plan makes sense, the votes could have been tied other ways. I can't be completely sure that what you say is the truth.

If you want me to claim, the only way I'd do it tonight is through the plan and I don't have the time to get your answer, contact someone else, get them to agree, and send in my actions before deadline. And if you really wanted me on board, why wait until the 11th hour? I'm sorry, but it all seems suspicious. My thought is that you want to learn who I am in order to kill me tonight if I'm against your plan.

I'll claim to you only if you follow the plan I placed. The odds are now really in the villages favor as we now have a majority. Don't see whats wrong with you doing it UNLESS you are mafia. It's all a little suspicious.

main reason I waited this long was because I just got home and the developments only recently happened that made me fully trust draycos.
please, get into the irc channel at least. now would be preferable
also, jimera is definitely scum. he's been admitting it in irc.

finally, main problem with it isn't with me. the problem is with you. if a mafia find you and kills you, we can't use your role and we will probably lose.

but coming into irc would be really, really great of you to do.

I can't go onto IRC. I only have a family computer with internet blocks for my little sister.

But here's what I got. You want a claim, I'll give it to you. I'm the village role blocker, and I can block anyone's actions for the night. Right now, I think you are pretty damn suspicious of being mafia. Turning the tables on me in the 11th hour? Don't like it. Don't like it at all.

So here is the thing. I made out my PM to aska with my block. I WILL BE BLOCKING YOU IF YOU DO NOT GIVE ME AN ACCURATE REASON WHY I SHOULD NOT. If you're wolf, you can't kill me and if your mafia, well, you can't preform the kill yourself and deadline is apporaching.

I'm sick of not helping the village and hiding. Now I'm out. If your village, I get in contact. If your mafia, I fuck you over for tonight and help the village.

Ball is in your court penguin. I need a reason.

well a really good reason not to block me is because i don't have an action.

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Dear penguin344,
You are Dan Quayle.

You are the former vice president of the US under George H. W. Bush. Over the course of the many speeches you gave, you’ve probably misspoken more often than not and you have become a joke.

You have no night action. However, you have some secret service agents still around from when you used to be VP, so the first kill directed at you will fail.

You are allied with the Republicans. You win if the Republicans are the last team standing.

There. That was my role pm. I'm sorry that I had to do this like this, but no one has been claiming. without claims, we have nothing. and with jimera's sudden move, we will have less than nothing if he is successful. You have everything on me.

I might still do it then. No harm, no foul. It looks like it's ok, so I'll trust you. Give me a moment to think.

honestly you don't need to claim to draycos, I thought you would trust him more than myself since he was clean.
please, hook jimera so that he cannot inform his scumbuddies.

Yeah, it's either between you or jimerao. I'm leaning toward you though...

If you want to hook me, fine, do it. Meanwhile, jimera0 will get one person closer to finding you, and the inspector. The decision is yours.

Yeah, or I don't, you're wolf, and you kill me because I'm good...

If I were the wolf, why wouldn't I have killed you n1? You made it very clear that you were an important role. I would have killed you immediately if i was the wolf.

also, a recent development, there is a chance that the wolf doesn't kill

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