[tennisace]

I'm going to jump the gun here and answer #4, though from the perspective of one month post-drop. Heeeeere we go! (ps i'm doing it in reverse order)

Honorable mentions: Exeggutor, Torkoal, Zangoose, Regirock, Gardevoir

These 5 are in no particular order. I've singled these out for a bunch of reasons, but mainly because they all both benefit greatly and are harmed by the supposed changes. Specs Eggy loves Spikes support, while Harvest Eggy loves Tspikes. However, Scolipede is a pain in the butt since it really doesn't like Tspikes. Torkoal is a good spinner I guess, but I've never been a fan of it. It doesn't have much staying power, and even after a Shell Smash I'm pretty sure stuff outspeeds it. Zangoose loves Spikes support but hates opposing Spikes support, since it's a sweeper on a timer (notice a pattern?). Gardevoir will still be good, but it's a tweener in terms of both speed and bulk. Regirock gets the boot out of a crowded group of Rock-types but is still really good, however the only thing it really has going for it is the massive bulk. This metagame is going to be pretty polarized in terms of either attribute, and I don't think Gardevoir will do either well enough to crack the top 15.

#15 - Samurott

I debated the last 5 spots for a few minutes before going with the order you'll read them in. Samurott has a few above-average options it can run, and can break through a few of the stallier cores. However, it's weak to both Tspikes and Spikes, which won't be a great trait to have. Plus, it's kinda slow and easily revenged.

#14 - Golem

In the last few metagames, the top 15 is clustered with Rock types, and Golem just barely squeaks in here at the "bottom" of the group. As a lead, I think it's going to be as effective as ever really. People won't want to lead with a spinner for fear of losing it early. Scolipede leads will get up a layer or two depending on the player, in exchange for either Scolipede or SR of your own. Golem gets Rock Blast, which is pretty useful for Focus Sash varients of Scolipede (provided it, you know, hits). That said, there are going to be a lot of times where Sturdy is broken, and Golem is very weak from the special side.

#13 - Alomomola

Alomomola is already a good mon, but in this metagame, it will be relied upon even more heavily with the amount of Spikes being thrown around. It will still be able to do its job, since Regenerator + the fact that there are few things that can outright OHKO it means it will get Wishes up and passed throughout a match. Toxic Spikes aren't kind to it though, as they take away from its ability to Wish stall for 5-6 turns at a time.

#12 - Rhydon

The first of the new drops to appear here, Rhydon will fill its old role in the metagame before it left: set up SR, tank shit, hit like a truck. It almost reminds me of Piloswine in the current metagame, since not much can hurt it on the Physical side, and it gets really good coverage. Megahorn is really cool for Pokemon like Amoonguss and the Psychic types, and it gets Rock Blast to beat Substitute Pokemon and Focus Sash Scolipede. The main difference between Rhydon and Golem is that you're substituting Priority and a bit more speed for sheer bulk and coverage. Guaranteed someone will dick around with Rock Polish Rhydon for shits and giggles too...

#11 - Charizard

Charizard seems like a weird choice in a hazards dominated metagame, but realize that I'm predicting usage stats, not viability. Kids love them some Charizard, and now that there's a legitimate spinner in the tier, I expect people to use it quite often. It also helps that Charizard kinda smacks Amoonguss and non-boosted Ludicolo around a bit. There are going to be a ton of Rock-types around though, and Charizard doesn't really have much to get around them outside HP Grass or Focus Miss.

#10 - Ludicolo

Ludicolo picks up right where it left off, as a strong mon with strong coverage and strong sets. Rain Dance + Spikes teams should see a fair bit of usage, and Ludicolo could always use the extra power for breaking through the Alomomola + Amoonguss + Lickilicky-type cores. The metagame also lost the strongest user of Priority in the tier, so it should be able to clean up vs most offensive teams not carrying the next Pokemon on the list...

#9 - Skuntank

Yep. Skuntank becomes the de-facto best user of priority in the tier, and as a handy bonus, it absorbs Toxic Spikes, which is lovely for really any team. I can see it becoming an integral part of Dark/Psychic/Fighting or Dark/Ghost/Fighting cores, which will definitely be around given the Pokemon yet to be listed.

#8 - Armaldo

Armaldo does a couple things in this metagame that people seem to like: it can set up SR, and it can Spin. The latter is going to be very important since even with the addition of Hitmonchan, there still aren't very many good spinners in the tier. Armaldo is a generally solid mon, with good offensive STAB and ok defensive typing, it'll be able to spin and keep Scolipede kind of at-bay with some support (which it will definitely get). Again, this is usage stats. Would I want to use Armaldo? Not really. People will though, which is why it appears here at #8.

#7 - Braviary

Here's where it starts to get interesting. There's going to be a ton more Scarf Braviary running around, like in Round 0 when Scolipede was first legal. It's immune to Spikes and Toxic Spikes, and it doesn't need the extra power when you can put up a couple layers of spikes and just wear down the opponent. One thing to note about CB Braviary: Superpower doesn't come close to 2hkoing Rhydon.

#6 - Musharna

Mushy is going to be really good on the bulkier offensive teams. Since Scolipede has a good chance at getting up 2 layers of Toxic Spikes at the beginning of a match, a good bulky offensive team will be able to wear down the opponent before bringing out Musharna and going for an end-game sweep. It's also going to be used as a very safe switch-in for Hitmonchan, since Hitmonchan can't really touch it and on a more offensive team, you can run HP Ground for a Skuntank switch-in. I'll admit I'm not too confident about this prediction; Skuntank could very well dominate Psychic-types in the tier, meaning Musharna gets less opportunities against higher-level players.

#5 - Golurk

Top 5 woooo! Golurk is going to still be Golurk. It resists most of what Scolipede throws at it. It checks Cincinno (as long as it doesn't switch into Bullet Seed) and other Normal-types (well ok not Kangaskhan but Kanga has its own problems in this meta). Hitmonchan is forced to use Foresight if it wants a guaranteed spin, limiting its usefulness. It sets up SR pretty well, and finally, it's really strong. Golurk won't really change much from the current meta, except maybe it's going to be a bit less "bulky" from the increased wear and tear from Spikes/Tspikes. That's going to happen to every grounded bulky Pokemon though.

#4 - Amoonguss

It's fat. What more do you want me to say here sheesh. As an added bonus from what Amoonguss does currently, it absorbs Toxic Spikes for defensive-minded teams. Also, Hitmonchan can do exactly: dick to Amoonguss, which is nice.

#3 - Hitmonchan

There are a bunch of Pokemon below this spot that can check or counter Hitmonchan. The reason it's up this high is because that doesn't matter when we're talking about pure usage: it's a spinner which isn't weak to Stealth Rock, something NU has never had in the 5th generation. People are going to go absolutely bananas, especially with Scolipede around. I don't buy in to people who mention SubBU sets, or offensive sets for it. If you want a boosting Fighting-type, use Gurdurr. If you want an offensive Fighting-type, use Sawk. If you want a spinner, well...

#2 - Cincinno

I'm probably going to get some flack for having Cincinno this high in a Spikes dominated metagame, but hear me out. Cincinno gets great coverage and outspeeds Scolipede, meaning it can revenge essentially every unboosted offensive threat in the tier. If you can keep Spikes and Tspikes off your side of the field, Cincinno will absolutely tear apart tweener offensive/bulky offensive teams (I'm talking about the kind that think Rhydon + Musharna + 4 sweepers is going to be bulky enough). If you can't, well, a large amount of people will try anyway. I've said it before and I'll say it again: this is usage stats. Cincinno isn't an S-tier mon right now, and it definitely won't be in this hypothetical meta. It will be used a hell of a lot though, and that's what matters.

#1 - Scolipede

Jesus my fingers hurt from typing Scolipede, Spikes, and Toxic Spikes so many times throughout this post. Even if Scolipede isn't the "best" Pokemon in the tier as crowned by the top players, it's going to be #1 in usage solely because of it's versatility. You want a suicide lead? Scolipede can do that. You want an offensive pivot that can set up a layer or hammer a switch-in? Scolipede can do that. You want fast Pokemon who can revenge a weakened team? Scolipede can do that. I miss it so much ugh can we get it back now please ;_;

OK I'm done. I might respond to other points later, but I don't want to totally dominate this thread (or I might get carpal tunnel syndrome before I can post in the suspect thread).