Thread: Checks and Counters View Single Post
Jan 4th, 2013, 10:30:18 AM   #38
Antar*
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fat MicfiJasan This is my understanding of it (using your Politoed v. Breloom example): 27.5% KOed/50.3% switched out: These numbers are the chances that Breloom will KO/force out Politoed, respectively. 77.85: This is the sum of the first two numbers. In other words, if you get Breloom in against Politoed, this is roughly the chance that something "good" will happen for you. 1.20: This is the deviation. More matchups means lower deviation. 73.040: This is the final score, or roughly 77.85-4*1.20. The higher score means better counter.
All correct. Thanks. :)

Quote:
 As for what I think of C', 4 deviations feels a little high, but I'm used to them in relation to a normal distribution. 2 deviations is always a big deal as it determines whether an event is "statistically unlikely" to occur. 3 deviations covers over 99% of all cases, so I lean towards this. However, if you have an objective reason for 4 deviations, then I trust you. I'd say keep it between 2-4.
The problem with 4 deviations is that my cutoff for reporting checks/counters is 50 (makes sense, since a C of 50 means that the opposing Pokemon checks you!), so, like, for LC, you basically have no data.

I was looking at some of the ordering, though, trying to decide whether it would be okay to lower it to 2-3 deviations, so LC and the other inactive tiers could get more checks/counters, but look at Scizor's counter list, for instance:

Code:
```+----------------------------------------+
| Checks and Counters                    |
| Heatran 76.695 (79.80±0.78)            |
|	 (31.5% KOed / 48.3% switched out)|
| Volcarona 72.643 (77.25±1.15)          |
|	 (37.6% KOed / 39.6% switched out)|
| Skarmory 71.587 (76.47±1.22)           |
|	 (8.7% KOed / 67.8% switched out)|
| Typhlosion 69.212 (84.68±3.87)         |
|	 (36.6% KOed / 48.0% switched out)|
| Ninetales 67.938 (72.88±1.23)          |
|	 (26.3% KOed / 46.5% switched out)|
| Zapdos 67.143 (76.78±2.41)             |
|	 (39.3% KOed / 37.5% switched out)|
| Tentacruel 66.907 (72.15±1.31)         |
|	 (23.0% KOed / 49.2% switched out)|
| Charizard 66.373 (76.99±2.66)          |
|	 (29.4% KOed / 47.6% switched out)|
| Magnezone 65.809 (71.69±1.47)          |
|	 (63.2% KOed / 8.5% switched out)|
|	 (32.1% KOed / 39.2% switched out)|
| Moltres 65.586 (85.64±5.01)            |
|	 (43.1% KOed / 42.6% switched out)|
| Chandelure 65.575 (74.06±2.12)         |
|	 (31.9% KOed / 42.2% switched out)|
+----------------------------------------+```
I don't really think Typhlosion deserves to top the list. Or does it? Thoughts?

Quote:
 I do wonder why your N variable doesn't include the situations where Pokemon B switches out against A.
It does. I just don't count U-Turns. [Edit: Sorry--just saw that I forgot to include that in my post]
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