Everyone doing their "math" (which is sketchy at best in the first place) is making at least a crucial mistake or two. In zyre's case, multiply by 6. There are 6 team slots. This does nothing to change relative percentages, but it does show the magnitude of the problem.
There is a 76.44% chance of a Steel on the opponent's team.
There is a 69.36% chance of a Water on the opponent's team.
I'll take a look at the stats later and see if there's anything more accurate I can parse out. The math done here so far has been flawed. In my very limited time this week, I can't imagine I have the capacity to find anything better. But these simple additions and divisions do NOT work.