Okay, as some of you know (from the brief period of time I went on the Smogon chat, or from people like Mekkah posting it on the boards), I am currently researching a way of making Pokemon on a more balanced footing with each other. Today, after continuing this research, I managed to produce this little chart which has interesting consequences to the current OU metagame, and so I'm posting it here.
As you know, some attack types are 'better' than others. This means that some particular types hit a wider range of Pokemon for more damage than other types. The Poison type, for instance, is usually referred to be a 'bad' attacking type, because it is easily resisted and is only super effective against one type. The Rock type, on the other hand, is considered a much better attacking type since, among other reasons, it hits 4 different types for supereffective and is only resisted by 3 types.
These are the things that make an attacking type 'good' or 'bad':
- The type's attacking type chart
- The prevalence, or otherwise, of certain Pokemon in the metagame
- The defensive stats of the Pokemon being hit
Because of this, I calculated the following parameter for each and every Pokemon, and each and every type (actually, the computer did it for me!):
PhysicalTypeDamage = (TypeEffectiveness x Usage) / (HP x Defense)
SpecialTypeDamage = (TypeEffectiveness x Usage) / (HP x SpecialDefense)
These formulae incorporate all the three points above.
TypeEffectiveness is the usual: 2 if hit for supereffective, 1 if hit for neutral, etc.
Usage is taken from Shoddybattle's statistics. I used the unweighted ones here, and I divided the unweighted usage by the total number of usages. I only used the statistics for final evolution Pokemon.
HP and Defense are the average stats that the HP and Defense can take. I basically used the formula (0.9 x (2 x BaseHP + 141) x (2 x BaseDef + 36) + 1.1 x (2 x BaseHP + 204) x (2 x BaseDef + 99)) / 2 to get the 'average' HP x Def. Again, I only used the base stats of fully evolved Pokemon.
These are then summed up for each Pokemon for every type separately, and then multiplied by 0.84. Finally, their reciprocal is taken, and they are rounded to the nearest whole number.
And this is the list that emerges:
Attacking Type Effectiveness
Type Physical Special
Ice 70302 71050
Fire 74089 72783
Flying 73205 76558
Rock 73926 78029
Fighting 75295 82830
Electric 79460 84829
Water 81563 83576
Dark 82175 87880
Dragon 86163 91749
Psychic 86442 92072
Ghost 88674 90572
Grass 88602 93736
Ground 88497 93920
Bug 90428 97797
Steel 95767 102614
Normal 103374 110513
Poison 110772 122892
So, what do these numbers mean?
Look at the first two numbers: 70302 and 71050. 70302 is the Ice Physical Attacking Type Effectiveness
(Ice PATE for short) and 71050 is the Ice Special Attacking Type Effectiveness
(Ice SATE for short).
The lower the type's PATE or SATE, the better that type is for attacking purposes. This means that Ice is the best attacking type, and Poison is the worst.
But now comes the interesting bit! PATE and SATE can be used for an extremely neat calculation: the average damage you deal with a particular move against ALL (fully evolved) Pokemon.
Average Maximum Percentage Physical Damage = Attack x MovePower x STAB / PATE
Average Maximum Percentage Special Damage = SpecialAttack x MovePower x STAB / SATE
For the minimum damage, multiply the answer by 0.85 as usual.
Here are two examples to clarify:
Suppose you have Choice Band Infernape using Flare Blitz, with 460 Attack.
Average Maximum Percentage Damage = 460 x 120 x 1.5 / 74089 = 112%
Average Minimum Percentage Damage = 112% x 0.85 = 95%
This means that Flare Blitz will deal an average of 95% to 112% damage. Of course, this doesn't imply that Infernape will OHKO every Pokemon in the game with CB Flare Blitz, but that if you were to use Flare Blitz against every Pokemon in the game and averaged out the damage dealt to each, the average damage would end up to be 95% to 112% (keeping also in mind that Pokemon like Bronzong, Forretress, Weavile and Metagross - all weak to Fire - are all more common than, say, Charizard, Snorlax, Milotic and Slowbro).
Another example: Life Orb Garchomp Draco Meteor, with 284 SpA.
Average Maximum Percentage Damage = 284 x 140 x 1.5 x 1.3 / 91749 = 84.5%.
Average Minimum Percentage Damage = 84.5% x 0.85 = 72%.
So Draco Meteor would deal an average of 72% to 84.5%.
Note that these percentages are approximate, since we took the average defensive EVs for all Pokemon, and also we're assuming the Pokemon usages up until December. This means that the PATE and SATE lists depend on the metagame, and hence will inevitably change as the metagame changes.
The chart has a lot of interesting things that can be commented on, but I'll leave that fun part up to you, for now. It's already past midnight here, and I need to sleep.