Average damage that a move would deal

[Spaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat X-Act

And it's also your job to deal as much damage as possible.

It is true that your opponent will try to limit the damage, but it is also true that sometimes you outpredict your opponent and you manage to deal more than the average damage. On average, however, a normal player is sometimes outpredicted and sometimes outpredicts the opponent. In that case, the average dealt (not in one game, in a large number of games) will be that (assuming 300 attacking stat). The only problem is that some moves are learned by only a few Pokemon while others are learned by a lot.

I have to agree on that, but What I wanted to clarify is that theory won't work the same way as reality. Let's take the following scenario:

Lucario vs Tyranitar. Most times you will see tyranitar running away so as not to get ko'd. Sure that from time to time tyra will attempt to outpredict a swords dance and use earthquake. Even when this happens, only a fraction of the times tyra will get killed by close combat. Simply because of the fact that if you have an alternative to counter lucario, you won't take such a big risk. Not to mention that tyranitar will never switch into lucario.

From all this I conclude that close combat will land on a cresselia/gyarados/zapdos/whatnot more often than on a tyranitar. While in theory close combat will hit every poke the same amount of times.

Anyway, I thank you for doing these analysis.

[david stone]

Well, yeah, Rock is the only type with more SE hits than resisted hits, other than Ground. Ground has the disadvantage of having one type (Flying) be immune to it, and there is also the factor of Levitate.

Did you take abilities into account for this?

[X-Act]

Yes I did.

[Phizzlax]

Originally Posted by Fat Angel Diva

Hmmm...this just might make me consider using Power Gem on Grumpig and Persian.

Psychic off of Grumpig has 135 power. Power Gem super effective off of him has 140 power. How often do you see that being worth the slot? The chart didn't take STAB into account, it's easier to decide on a case by case basis what moveset a Pokemon should use considering it's potential threats, type coverage, what's needed on the team, etc. The chart at best is interesting, but offers little practical use to a skilled battler/team builder.

[devoninja]

Would you recommend using this chart to select "filler" moves? It seems that this would be useful for designing a choice set that needs to choose its fourth slot.

[Syberia]

I'd rather choose based on what my team otherwise has problems with.

[X-Act]

After continuing to tinker with this yesterday, I realised that I made a massive mistake in my Excel sheet. For some reason, the Pokemon usages weren't taken into account at all. So the percentages given in the original post are without taking Pokemon usages into account. I profoundly apologise for this mistake.

However, looking at the bright side, this gives us an opportunity to compare the values without having a metagame with those of the metagame. And the results are quite striking.

These are the average, unstabbed, damage values that a 300 Atk and 300 SpA Pokemon would deal:

Move                  Average Percentage
----------------------------------------
Explosion             143.81%
Selfdestruct          115.05%
Eruption (max)         61.70%
Head Smash             60.87%
Focus Punch            57.94%
Overheat               57.58%
Water Spout (max)      53.20%
Avalanche (max)        52.21%
Blizzard               51.54%
Fire Blast             49.36%
Magma Storm            49.36%
Flare Blitz            48.89%
Brave Bird             48.26%
Close Combat           46.35%
Superpower             46.35%
Brine (max)            46.11%
Draco Meteor           45.76%
Volt Tackle            45.63%
Psycho Boost           44.77%
Leaf Storm             44.06%
Hydro Pump             42.56%
Thunder                42.51%
Focus Blast            42.37%
Shadow Force           42.29%
Outrage                41.78%
Heat Wave              41.13%
Ice Beam               40.80%
Megahorn               40.78%
Sacred Fire            40.74%
Stone Edge             40.58%
Facade (max)           40.27%
Power Whip             40.12%
Wood Hammer            40.12%
Flamethrower           39.07%
Cross Chop             38.63%
DynamicPunch           38.63%
Hammer Arm             38.63%
Hi Jump Kick           38.63%
Aeroblast              38.23%
Seed Flare             37.77%
SolarBeam              37.77%
Last Resort            37.39%
Gyro Ball (max)        37.37%
Dragon Rush            34.82%
Blaze Kick             34.63%
Double-edge            34.52%
Doom Desire            34.51%
Surf                   33.70%
Thunderbolt            33.66%
Bonemerang             33.33%
Earthquake             33.33%
Lava Plume             32.91%
Sky Uppercut           32.83%
Aqua Tail              32.75%
Crabhammer             32.75%
Ice Punch              32.63%
Drill Peck             32.17%
Gunk Shot              32.05%
Aura Sphere            31.78%
Iron Tail              30.89%
Meteor Mash            30.89%
Attack Order           30.58%
Fire Punch             30.55%
Rock Slide             30.44%
Leaf Blade             30.09%
Hidden Power Ice       30.06%
Crunch                 29.86%
Sucker Punch           29.86%
Pursuit (switch out)   29.86%
Dragon Pulse           29.42%
Return                 29.34%
Waterfall              29.11%
Brick Break            28.97%
Hidden Power Fire      28.79%
Psychic                28.78%
Air Slash              28.67%
Thunderpunch           28.52%
Earth Power            28.41%
Bug Buzz               28.38%
Discharge              28.34%
Petal Dance            28.33%
Ice Fang               28.28%
Dark Pulse             27.90%
Dragon Claw            27.86%
Zen Headbutt           27.44%
Shadow Ball            27.38%
X-Scissor              27.18%
Power Gem              26.86%
Hidden Power Rock      26.86%
Hidden Power Flying    26.76%
Seed Bomb              26.75%
Fire Fang              26.48%
Night Slash            26.13%
Extrasensory           25.58%
Energy Ball            25.18%
Hidden Power Water     24.83%
Hidden Power Electric  24.80%
Hidden Power Fighting  24.72%
Spark                  24.72%
Thunder Fang           24.72%
Iron Head              24.71%
Shadow Claw            24.67%
Body Slam              24.45%
Hidden Power Dark      24.41%
Hyper Voice            24.24%
Aerial Ace             24.13%
Psycho Cut             24.01%
Hidden Power Ghost     23.95%
U-turn                 23.79%
Signal Beam            23.65%
Ancientpower           23.02%
Flash Cannon           23.01%
Extremespeed           23.01%
Chatter                22.94%
Hidden Power Dragon    22.88%
Bite                   22.40%
Faint Attack           22.40%
Luster Purge           22.39%
Mist Ball              22.39%
Hidden Power Psychic   22.39%
Hidden Power Ground    22.09%
Hidden Power Bug       22.08%
Hidden Power Grass     22.03%
Sludge Bomb            21.68%
Crush Claw             21.57%
Tri Attack             21.55%
Poison Jab             21.36%
Shock Wave             21.26%
Shadow Punch           21.14%
Ominous Wind           20.53%
Hidden Power Steel     20.13%
Needle Arm             20.06%
Silver Wind            18.92%
Magical Leaf           18.88%
Cross Poison           18.69%
Magnet Bomb            18.53%
Charge Beam            17.71%
Ice Shard              17.40%
Hidden Power Poison    16.87%
Swift                  16.16%
Mach Punch             15.45%
Pursuit (staying in)   14.93%
Aqua Jet               14.56%
Vacuum Wave            14.12%
Shadow Sneak           14.10%
Poison Fang            13.35%
Bullet Punch           12.35%
Fake Out               11.51%
Quick Attack           11.51%

Notice how the percentages have all become drastically lower than before, showing that the metagame uses a lot of defensive Pokemon to try to circumvent the threat posed by powerful attackers.

Even more striking is the following chart, containing the average percentage values that a 300 Atk/SpA, 80-power move of the given type would deal:

Move Type          Average Percentage
-------------------------------------
Physical Ice       34.81%
Special Ice        34.36%
Special Fire       32.91%
Physical Fire      32.59%
Physical Rock      32.47%
Physical Flying    32.17%
Physical Fighting  30.90%
Special Rock       30.70%
Special Flying     30.59%
Physical Electric  30.42%
Physical Dark      29.86%
Physical Water     29.11%
Special Water      28.38%
Special Electric   28.34%
Special Fighting   28.25%
Physical Ghost     28.19%
Special Dark       27.90%
Physical Dragon    27.86%
Physical Psychic   27.44%
Special Ghost      27.38%
Physical Bug       27.18%
Physical Grass     26.75%
Physical Ground    26.66%
Special Dragon     26.15%
Special Psychic    25.58%
Special Ground     25.25%
Special Bug        25.23%
Special Grass      25.18%
Physical Steel     24.71%
Special Steel      23.01%
Physical Normal    23.01%
Special Normal     21.55%
Physical Poison    21.36%
Special Poison     19.28%

We see that Ice is the actual king, followed by Fire and then Rock. We also notice how the special types deal much lower damage than the physical types, with the exception of Fire. Also, Ghost suddenly finds itself in a mid-table position from the bottom places it was before. Water also improved slightly, and, interestingly, physical and special Water attacks deal practically the same damage, unlike most of the other types.

I apologise once again for the confusion.

In other news, yesterday (after I realised this mistake and fixing it)I developed a method of quantifying how much a Pokemon moveset covers its types using the chart above. I'll post this method when I know that it works perfectly, which should be soon.

[kd24]

Er Ice and Fire on top makes a bit more sense...

Good job catching the mistake.

[darkie]

Rock is still a pretty good attacking type, and Poison still sucks.