(Un)Official Smogon University PO Stats -- August 2011

[Oglemi*]

Posting this on the new page

I cannot stress enough that these are the stats for JUST August. Tier placement changes include the usage stats for the past three months, which is going to be May, June, and August (July doesn't count...).

So, to the people saying Metagross and friends are going to drop to UU, they probably won't after this round. If the current trend continues for the next three months though, then we can definitely expect them to drop to UU during the next tier placement change.

[New World Order]

But thats one of the main problems with Virizion. With 90 Base Attacks on both sides, it has trouble scoring KOs even after SD and CM boosts, if one must play Virizion as a sweeper, it'll take a LOT of support. Because it'll more likely than not take a sac to get Virizion safely. Regarding the player factor, pretty much any pokemon can be used viably if a player uses it on just the right team. Hell, one player even got his team to #1 using a Sharpedo, which lacks any sort of attack boosting move, making it not that appealing a sweeper. The reason it was successful was because he supported it nearly flawlessly. However, would you consider Sharpedo and OU worthy pokemon? With sets, you should never assume anything until you've scouted your opponent, therefore, switching in recklessly against Ferrothorns and Rotom-W is not a good idea at all.

[DOOM99]

Wow! This is great! I think they might be a little bit off, though, since things such as Metagross and Lucario were not close to dropping off in June, but here they dropped significantly. I wouldn't use these as official stats, but they sure are a great way to get an idea of how the metagame is shaping up. Thanks for all of the hard work that you put into this! It looks fantastic!

Also, Haxorus at #15!! Wow! That thing was never seen in early BW!

[MaestroXXVI]

Assuming these stats are correct, this is what OU Tier would look like:

	Pokemon		August	June	May	Usage
1	Tyranitar	20.1905	21.5956	21.8169	20.4339
2	Ferrothorn	17.071	22.3973	21.4978	17.9212
3	Scizor		17.2522	20.776	19.5722	17.78935
4	Rotom-W		17.7846	15.7871	13.5467	17.35833
5	Gliscor		17.1864	16.3532	16.026	17.03388
6	Politoed	15.8518	16.9758	10.82	15.7826
7	Dragonite	15.0915	12.9028	11.7237	14.67758
8	Heatran		13.5718	12.8224	12.4101	13.42973
9	Latios		12.2537	16.083	14.8188	12.8392
10	Jirachi		12.8595	12.5504	11.8507	12.77879
11	Excadrill	10.359	13.5109	13.1452	10.86909
12	Skarmory	10.8851	10.3198	9.9568	10.77572
13	Thundurus	8.9653	13.4315	9.9126	9.563046
14	Reuniclus	7.66887	10.6725	12.4678	8.244279
15	Conkeldurr	7.2017	9.3384	11.1825	7.634654
16	Gengar		7.18271	9.1884	10.701	7.580017
17	Jellicent	7.21478	8.8326	9.0565	7.493746
18	Haxorus		7.49141	7.3251	6.0608	7.411013
19	Starmie		6.90017	8.5988	8.5273	7.180296
20	Infernape	6.90291	6.7188	7.6186	6.909717
21	Gyarados	6.54378	7.7938	7.3682	6.734383
22	Ninetales	6.75394	6.6946	6.2007	6.723471
23	Celebi		7.04914	5.1225	3.2392	6.649563
24	Forretress	6.65076	6.5435	6.8089	6.643942
25	Magnezone	6.2222	7.8437	5.9735	6.414525
26	Volcarona	5.95992	7.0183	7.8227	6.169833
27	Deoxys-S	6.38235	4.9956	4.3593	6.124713
28	Blissey		5.69341	7.332	7.3134	5.965733
29	Terrakion	5.77212	7.2083	5.9544	5.959238
30	Landorus	5.99621	5.8456	3.7193	5.882513
31	Salamence	5.48937	6.3801	5.9901	5.621575
32	Latias		5.43303	5.6426	3.6435	5.384663
33	Espeon		5.07242	6.6796	4.0129	5.229171
34	Tentacruel	5.05026	5.3019	4.7134	5.067679
35	Vaporeon	4.65146	6.1021	5.2857	4.859217
36	Toxicroak	4.68142	5.8978	4.1607	4.811771
37	Gastrodon	5.22244	2.2711	1.6479	4.704583
38	Hydreigon	4.54975	5.1414	6.198	4.692383
39	Bronzong	4.63183	4.9656	3.9516	4.645208
40	Breloom		4.4491	5.1963	5.1906	4.573396
41	Scrafty		4.42251	4.5702	4.8284	4.457883
42	Lucario		3.69222	4.4379	4.6701	3.826175
43	Mamoswine	3.72197	4.4867	2.7288	3.776179
44	Virizion	3.51497	5.0324	4.0512	3.726992
45	Metagross	3.19951	4.7437	5.2387	3.4775
46	Swampert	3.02775	4.5253	5.0692	3.300004
47	Venusaur	3.19445	3.6012	3.8274	3.271667
48	Chandelure	2.95031	3.8178	5.0803	3.147496
49	Mienshao	3.03366	3.6725	3.8456	3.147346
50	Hippowdon	2.86907	3.8984	4.7687	3.076888
51	Tornadus	2.83215	3.4526	3.1242	2.921875
52	Cloyster	2.55024	3.9869	4.8656	2.826296
53	Darmanitan	2.61523	3.5468	3.5044	2.768725
54	Slowbro		2.48441	3.0076	2.9938	2.571033
55	Chansey		2.44453	2.8898	3.1507	2.529613
56	Machamp		2.29028	3.5117	4.3668	2.529479
57	Porygon2	2.11641	3.198	3.8569	2.324129

The cutoff is between metagross and swampert, creating a 45-poke OU.

[TickingSeedotBomb]

IF Tornadus happens to fall to UU... I may just quit UU for a little while... Rain will be so dominant with WHimsicott, Tornadus, and Kingdra wrecking havoc. Whimsi and Tornadus both get prankster rain dance and Tornadus is amazing with Hurricane (Whimsi can memento after RD I guess to let Kingdra get in a free DD?)

Hopefully Hippowdon falls down to UU so my Hippopotas can be replaced by his older and WAY better brother :p

[Antar*]

Originally Posted by Fat Oglemi

Posting this on the new page

I cannot stress enough that these are the stats for JUST August. Tier placement changes include the usage stats for the past three months, which is going to be May, June, and August (July doesn't count...).

I've bolded this on the OP. Let's see how much good that does.

Originally Posted by Fat MaestroXXVI

Assuming the official stats are correct, this is what OU Tier would look like:

...

---

	Pokemon		August	June	May	Usage
1	Tyranitar	20.1905	21.5956	21.8169	20.4339
2	Ferrothorn	17.071	22.3973	21.4978	17.9212
3	Scizor		17.2522	20.776	19.5722	17.78935
4	Rotom-W		17.7846	15.7871	13.5467	17.35833
5	Gliscor		17.1864	16.3532	16.026	17.03388
6	Politoed	15.8518	16.9758	10.82	15.7826
7	Dragonite	15.0915	12.9028	11.7237	14.67758
8	Heatran		13.5718	12.8224	12.4101	13.42973
9	Latios		12.2537	16.083	14.8188	12.8392
10	Jirachi		12.8595	12.5504	11.8507	12.77879
11	Excadrill	10.359	13.5109	13.1452	10.86909
12	Skarmory	10.8851	10.3198	9.9568	10.77572
13	Thundurus	8.9653	13.4315	9.9126	9.563046
14	Reuniclus	7.66887	10.6725	12.4678	8.244279
15	Conkeldurr	7.2017	9.3384	11.1825	7.634654
16	Gengar		7.18271	9.1884	10.701	7.580017
17	Jellicent	7.21478	8.8326	9.0565	7.493746
18	Haxorus		7.49141	7.3251	6.0608	7.411013
19	Starmie		6.90017	8.5988	8.5273	7.180296
20	Infernape	6.90291	6.7188	7.6186	6.909717
21	Gyarados	6.54378	7.7938	7.3682	6.734383
22	Ninetales	6.75394	6.6946	6.2007	6.723471
23	Celebi		7.04914	5.1225	3.2392	6.649563
24	Forretress	6.65076	6.5435	6.8089	6.643942
25	Magnezone	6.2222	7.8437	5.9735	6.414525
26	Volcarona	5.95992	7.0183	7.8227	6.169833
27	Deoxys-S	6.38235	4.9956	4.3593	6.124713
28	Blissey		5.69341	7.332	7.3134	5.965733
29	Terrakion	5.77212	7.2083	5.9544	5.959238
30	Landorus	5.99621	5.8456	3.7193	5.882513
31	Salamence	5.48937	6.3801	5.9901	5.621575
32	Latias		5.43303	5.6426	3.6435	5.384663
33	Espeon		5.07242	6.6796	4.0129	5.229171
34	Tentacruel	5.05026	5.3019	4.7134	5.067679
35	Vaporeon	4.65146	6.1021	5.2857	4.859217
36	Toxicroak	4.68142	5.8978	4.1607	4.811771
37	Gastrodon	5.22244	2.2711	1.6479	4.704583
38	Hydreigon	4.54975	5.1414	6.198	4.692383
39	Bronzong	4.63183	4.9656	3.9516	4.645208
40	Breloom		4.4491	5.1963	5.1906	4.573396
41	Scrafty		4.42251	4.5702	4.8284	4.457883
42	Lucario		3.69222	4.4379	4.6701	3.826175
43	Mamoswine	3.72197	4.4867	2.7288	3.776179
44	Virizion	3.51497	5.0324	4.0512	3.726992
45	Metagross	3.19951	4.7437	5.2387	3.4775
46	Swampert	3.02775	4.5253	5.0692	3.300004
47	Venusaur	3.19445	3.6012	3.8274	3.271667
48	Chandelure	2.95031	3.8178	5.0803	3.147496
49	Mienshao	3.03366	3.6725	3.8456	3.147346
50	Hippowdon	2.86907	3.8984	4.7687	3.076888
51	Tornadus	2.83215	3.4526	3.1242	2.921875
52	Cloyster	2.55024	3.9869	4.8656	2.826296
53	Darmanitan	2.61523	3.5468	3.5044	2.768725
54	Slowbro		2.48441	3.0076	2.9938	2.571033
55	Chansey		2.44453	2.8898	3.1507	2.529613
56	Machamp		2.29028	3.5117	4.3668	2.529479
57	Porygon2	2.11641	3.198	3.8569	2.324129

The cutoff is between metagross and swampert, creating a 45-poke OU.

This assumes each month is equally weighted, when they PROBABLY should be weighted by the number of battles in each month (personally, I think it should be a weighted average giving more weight to more recent stats--not because they're MY stats, but because they reflect the current metagame better, seeing as how they're, well, more CURRENT).


I've had a request from Malvira to only count teams used by players with a rating greater than 1000. Apparently, RD did this in the last cycle. Battle logs do not include ratings, so the only way this could be implemented is by using CURRENT ratings (in the future, end-of-the-month ratings). My own feeling is that this is a pain to implement and not the best idea, but I'm interested to hear what people have to say on the subject.

[SHUCKLE MAN]

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

(personally, I think it should be a weighted average giving more weight to more recent stats--not because they're MY stats, but because they reflect the current metagame better, seeing as how they're, well, more CURRENT).

That IS how they do it, I think. At least in Generation IV. There was like some statistical formula they did at the beginning of Gen IV to calculate the weighting each month should have. As far as I know, they've still been doing that.

And thanks for the stats! :D

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

I've had a request from Malvira to only count teams used by players with a rating greater than 1000. Apparently, RD did this in the last cycle. Battle logs do not include ratings, so the only way this could be implemented is by using CURRENT ratings (in the future, end-of-the-month ratings). My own feeling is that this is a pain to implement and not the best idea, but I'm interested to hear what people have to say on the subject.

About weighted stats due to ratings, I don't think it's a good idea. I'm not a very good player, and I don't like the fact that my battles will sometimes not count towards the stats.

The way I see it, the tier lists are for EVERYBODY, not just the best players. So I think it's best to count each usage equally.

It might be interesting to see what they'd be like anyway, but not use them for the tier lists, but that could also get problematic. It's quite obvious judging by some attitudes of the members on this forum that:

a) any Pokemon that ranks lower in the stats that only includes the good players will be seen as a "n00b" Pokemon from that point onward. Anybody who uses that Pokemon will probably be given a hard time for it by some people. That isn't the way it should be, but read some of the posts in this thread to see what sort of thing we could be getting.

b) a lot of the new players who want to be good will look at the stats of the good players, and use the Pokemon that they've been using. If something random like Swampert or Chansey was 10 places higher in the stats of the players with high rankings, then all the new players will see that, and just start using that, because they think it'll make them good.

I'm fine with not being a part of the suspect testing, because I'm not good enough, but I think at least the usage lists should include my, and everbody else's usages, because we're playing in the tiers too. Tier lists are supposed to show how much a Pokemon has been used, and it's unfair if the lesser-skilled players aren't counted, so the Pokemon that they're most likely to be seeing get under-represented. If anything, it's the less-skilled players that need the tier lists most, so the people they'll be battling should be included imo.

[Antar*]

Originally Posted by Fat SHUCKLE MAN

That IS how they do it, I think. At least in Generation IV. There was like some statistical formula they did at the beginning of Gen IV to calculate the weighting each month should have. As far as I know, they've still been doing that.

Interesting if true! Now you see why I haven't attempted to post the combined usage stats.

As a physicist, the filter I'd like to see is e^t (in this case, August would be weighted 1, June would we weighted e^-2[=.135] (July would have been e^-1[=.368]) and May would be weighted e^-3[=.0498]. Actually, that sounds rather excessive--August is a BIT too dominant there.

About weighted stats due to ratings, I don't think it's a good idea. I'm not a very good player, and I don't like the fact that my battles will sometimes not count towards the stats.

The way I see it, the tier lists are for EVERYBODY, not just the best players. So I think it's best to count each usage equally.

It might be interesting to see what they'd be like anyway, but not use them for the tier lists, but that could also get problematic.

A clarification: the stats would not be weighted--it would be all-or-nothing: if your rating is below 1001, your "vote" counts for zero. But I would actually be very interested in generating a separate "best-of-the-best" ranking, either weighting stats by rating or using a much higher cutoff (maybe the suspect board cutoff?). Not for tiering, mind you. Just for kicks.

[WinstonShnozwick]

Combined usage of Ttar, Hippowdon, Politoed, and Ninetails.

45.8%

This is just disgusting. I have way better things to do than screw around in a tier where almost every other team is a carbon copy weather team. And the top 5 pokemon just happen to be one of the most common teams I see, all together. Ugh. Good thing UU is here.

[Antar*]

Originally Posted by Fat WinstonShnozwick

Combined usage of Ttar, Hippowdon, Politoed, and Ninetails.
45.8%

You forgot Abomasnow (so did I earlier): 49%.

[WinstonShnozwick]

I was thinking about Abom. Hail isn't too threatening to me, but I suppose some teams could feel hurt a lot by it.

So now if it would be possible to see the usage of certain moves;

-Rain Dance
-Sunny day
-Hail
-Sandstorm

-Trick Room
-Gravity

It would be cool to see the usage of those lesser team archetypes.

[SHUCKLE MAN]

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

A clarification: the stats would not be weighted--it would be all-or-nothing: if your rating is below 1001, your "vote" counts for zero. But I would actually be very interested in generating a separate "best-of-the-best" ranking, either weighting stats by rating or using a much higher cutoff (maybe the suspect board cutoff?). Not for tiering, mind you. Just for kicks.

Yeah. I admit, I might be interested to see them too.

I'm just very worried that a Pokemon I like using will be 10 places lower in the stats which excludes ratings under 1001, and then I'll have to constantly be justifying my reasons for using it for the next 5 years.

Maybe if people on here can mature a little bit, and we wouldn't see that type of thing going on (labelling a Pokemon bad because players with low ratings use it), then it would be interesting to publish, for interest (as you said, not to use for the tiering).

[MaestroXXVI]

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

This assumes each month is equally weighted, when they PROBABLY should be weighted by the number of battles in each month (personally, I think it should be a weighted average giving more weight to more recent stats--not because they're MY stats, but because they reflect the current metagame better, seeing as how they're, well, more CURRENT).

I used the weighting scheme used in DPP, which is (20*month3+3*month2+month1)/24

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

But I would actually be very interested in generating a separate "best-of-the-best" ranking, either weighting stats by rating or using a much higher cutoff (maybe the suspect board cutoff?). Not for tiering, mind you. Just for kicks.

I would be very interested in seeing that

[Boondocker]

Until you realize that the best rotom set is hydro/thunder/hp grass/filler

[UltiMario]

Originally Posted by Fat Raikaria

Besides Rotom-W, Vaporeon checks rain a million times better than Gastrodon. Ferrothorn too, and he can handle the support mons as well, and also beats Rotom-W rather easily anyway.

I fail to see why you should use Gastrodon, when there are, in my opinion, better options. Unless you literally want a catch-all for Rain. But even then, you could run Ferrothron, and benifit from a load more resistances, as well as things like Spikes, SR, Leech Seed and Thunder Wave, while carrying other teammates that can check what Ferrothorn dosen't.

And even as a catch-all for rain, what does Gastrodon do when Rain's support mons, such as Latios, come out?

Run Toxic/Earth Power/Ice Beam/Recover Gastrodon, 252HP/4Def/252SpD Calm.

Toxic takes care of Rotom-W, you can Ice Beam Thundurus, Latios can't 2HKO you with Specs Draco Meteor while Toxic and Ice Beam wear it down, Earth Power takes care of Toxicroak... you see where I'm going here?

Vaporeon can't touch a single one of those mons.... While Gastrodon wrecks all of them. Gastrodon single handedly beats more Rain mons than any other Pokemon.

[Antar*]

Originally Posted by Fat MaestroXXVI

I used the weighting scheme used in DPP, which is (20*month3+3*month2+month1)/24

That is a very strange formula. Any idea what the justification was?

[fatsnorlax]

UU Stuff

-Lax went up!
-Suicune is # 24 aka WAY TOO LOW!
-Mew went up

UU Top 45

---

1    Donphan    9421    18.25563%
2    Hitmontop    7310    14.16502%
3    Roserade    6844    13.26202%
4    Mismagius    6754    13.08763%
5    Heracross    6746    13.07212%
6    Arcanine    6581    12.75239%
7    Zapdos    6055    11.73313%
8    Victini    5924    11.47929%
9    Chansey    5803    11.24482%
10    Flygon    5666    10.97934%
11    Celebi    5166    10.01046%
12    Empoleon    4916    9.52602%
13    Mew    4661    9.0319%
14    Milotic    4616    8.9447%
15    Froslass    4616    8.9447%
16    Rotom-H    4152    8.04558%
17    Azelf    3995    7.74135%
18    Nidoking    3956    7.66578%
19    Registeel    3817    7.39643%
20    Slowbro    3628    7.03019%
21    Abomasnow    3618    7.01081%
22    Kingdra    3594    6.96431%
23    Cobalion    3559    6.89648%
24    Suicune    3436    6.65814%
25    Blastoise    3254    6.30547%
26    Deoxys-D    3228    6.25509%
27    Snorlax    3215    6.2299%
28    Mamoswine    2998    5.8094%
29    Nidoqueen    2894    5.60788%
30    Rhyperior    2820    5.46448%
31    Umbreon    2670    5.17382%
32    Weavile    2607    5.05174%
33    Crobat    2546    4.93353%
34    Ambipom    2427    4.70294%
35    Dusclops    2422    4.69325%
36    Houndoom    2341    4.53629%
37    Togekiss    2210    4.28245%
38    Escavalier    2127    4.12161%
39    Raikou    2077    4.02473%
40    Shaymin    2069    4.00922%
41    Bisharp    2064    3.99953%
42    Hippopotas    2007    3.88908%
43    Azumarill    1888    3.65849%
44    Jolteon    1808    3.50347%
45    Zoroark    1720    3.33295%

I don't get how Victini is better than Mew.

[MaestroXXVI]

Originally Posted by Fat Antar

That is a very strange formula. Any idea what the justification was?

Originally Posted by Fat http://www.smogon.com/articles/tiers

The Construction of the OU Tier

For RBY, GSC, and RSE, the OU tier is formed based on the experience of our community in regards to which Pokemon are commonly used in Smogon's standard metagame tournaments. In tournaments, people use Pokemon that can compete at the highest level to allow them to win, so naturally they are an excellent means of determining the OU tier.

The OU tier for DPP and BW is constructed from the league statistics extracted from the past DPP and current BW Pokemon battling medium. These statistics provide the number of times each Pokemon was used in the standard metagame league during each month, and those of the three months prior to the OU tier creation are utilized in particular.

The Pokemon usages from Smogon's Pokemon Online server of the three months prior to the OU update are first extracted. Each Pokemon usage of each month is then divided by the total of the usages during that particular month, so that the probability of that particular Pokemon being used during that month is obtained. Suppose the probability for a particular Pokemon to be used in month m is P_m. These months are ordered in the following manner: if the list is being updated in July, then April, May, and June correspond to months 1, 2 and 3 respectively.

From previous ShoddyBattle statistics, a small computer program was written to generate an equation that would fit best the predicted probability P with the actual probability for each Pokemon. This equation is the following:

P = (20×P_3 + 3×P_2 + P_1) ÷ 24

Check this post to see where the formula came from

[Arbiter]

Originally Posted by Fat Boondocker

Until you realize that the best rotom set is hydro/thunder/hp grass/filler

Not for every forme..

[Scarfwynaut]

Have fun being walled by Ferrothorn with HP grass.

[bluemon]

have fun having a ferrothorn with a scarf! i.e. trick

[New World Order]

Volt Switch>Thunder on Rotom-W. Yes Thunder gives you more rain abuse, and Thunderbolt gives you less power but more reliability than thunder, and more power than volt switch. but Volt Switch gives you so much momentum that I can't see any good reason to not use it.

[Avira]

Originally Posted by Fat SHUCKLE MAN

I'm just very worried that a Pokemon I like using will be 10 places lower in the stats which excludes ratings under 1001, and then I'll have to constantly be justifying my reasons for using it for the next 5 years.

Low usage does not at all imply that a Pokemon is bad. I don't think anybody will seriosuly suggest that Wobbuffet sucks, because its usage was low even in DPP, where it was eventually banned from Standard OU. Mew's usage is also low, but still a viable threat.


For the whole of April-June, there has been a rating restriction set by Rising Dusk that in my opinion, made the stats much more representative by excluding stats from people using something like Fearow in OU and losing all their matches.

Smogon is a competitive community first, and that is why I believe that there should still be a cutoff (1001) so that the stats are more representative of the competitive community.

[Scarfwynaut]

Originally Posted by Fat bluemon

have fun having a ferrothorn with a scarf! i.e. trick

A stab super effective power whip is going to hurt.

[PallyHeroRush52]

It's worth noting that August percents seem to be lower for pretty much all Pokemon, so I doubt we'll see a huge exodus of Pokemon from OU once/if Rising_Dusk does his version of the stats.