The Real New OU List

[Lyfsaho]

Originally Posted by Fat Gormenghast

the opinion of the collective battlers on shoddy determines the tiers, not your theorymon. I'm not saying i disagree with your points (i think donphan is garbage this gen) but we are not going to base the tiers on theorymon when you have cold hard stats provided by colin.

if you want to prove your point, start using tangrowth or something. seriously im getting tired of you disagreeing with the stats. They're there, and they're the exact definition of what we should be basing OU vs UU on.

lol? You seem to have misunderstood me. I just called "using the statistics" the most reliable and factual way O_o , so how do I base the tiers on theorymon? All I'm saying is that there is no perfect system.
Oh, and I use Tangrowth, thank you very much ^-^

Originally Posted by Fat kusaninja

assuming this is true, then shouldnt there be an exception to the rule that there is always an exception to a rule?
sorry, just arguing semantics.
its fucking 4 thirty where i live, just drank a bottle and a half of energy drink cuz i thought a history paper would take longer than it did, but i was wrong, and now im wide awake.

thanks for this, life was getting too serious on here =D

[gorm]

All I'm saying is that there is no perfect system.

this is what's confusing me. what do you mean by perfect here. do you mean one that everyone agrees on? because you realize that
1. that's impossible
2. it doesn't matter if someone disagrees since most people, by definition, agree with it, since it's based on what most people use

or do you mean perfect like based on relative power, which is also foolish ?__?
usage is a function of "power", this is a pretty safe assumption to make.
we cant measure "power" but we can measure usage, so it's the only basis we can safely tier on.

[CardsOfTheHeart]

There is one thing about the prediction algorithm that I would like to point out, though it ultimately wouldn't mean much of anything since the algorithm determines the OU tier.

I ran the algorithm for all 498 Pokemon (including all forms of Deoxys and Wormadam and Ubers which would have no usage) and found 78 Pokemon to have a NEGATIVE percentage of predicted usage. Though nearly all of the Pokemon in question are NFEs, a part of me has to wonder if the predicted percentages of every other Pokemon aren't slightly inflated as a result. Maybe an adjustment to the algorithm to account for this might bump one or two more Pokemon into OU status.

Again, I would like to point out that this point is mostly moot considering the objectives of the algorithm, but I, for one, thought it was at least interesting to see.

[OBSTL]

And this is, why I like the Smogon tier list the most. It isn't about strenght, but about the usage. I use Weezing quite often myself and it's still a good Pokémon, but it's just used too seldom...

And theorymon sucks, in theorymon every Pokémon has the exact counterset and the exact EVs to counter x and y...

[X-Act]

Originally Posted by Fat CardsOfTheHeart

There is one thing about the prediction algorithm that I would like to point out, though it ultimately wouldn't mean much of anything since the algorithm determines the OU tier.

I ran the algorithm for all 498 Pokemon (including all forms of Deoxys and Wormadam and Ubers which would have no usage) and found 78 Pokemon to have a NEGATIVE percentage of predicted usage. Though nearly all of the Pokemon in question are NFEs, a part of me has to wonder if the predicted percentages of every other Pokemon aren't slightly inflated as a result. Maybe an adjustment to the algorithm to account for this might bump one or two more Pokemon into OU status.

Again, I would like to point out that this point is mostly moot considering the objectives of the algorithm, but I, for one, thought it was at least interesting to see.

This would only happen for Pokemon that are used so little that the algorithm would predict a negative amount of usages (lol) in the next month. For our intents and purposes, it would mean that the usage would continue to be near zero, as they were.

[david stone]

Originally Posted by Fat Kira

For those that don't understand why we base on usage:

The usage of a pokemon usually is a good indication of it's power. For example, nobody really uses Flygon anymore, because Garchomp outclasses it. Now people want to win the game. Naturally they will use the stronger option. So if all those Flygon users switch to Garchomp then naturally Garhcomp will become OVERUSED.

We measure usage as a way to directly measure usage, not as a way to indirectly measure power. Now that we have actual usage statistics, the only real reason for OU to exist is to create UU, and both of these are separated from the other by usage.

Originally Posted by Fat Lyfsaho

Key word is usually. There are always exceptions to rules.

There are never exceptions to rules. If they are exceptions, it's not a rule; it's a heuristic.

[Time Mage]

Originally Posted by Fat X-Act

This would only happen for Pokemon that are used so little that the algorithm would predict a negative amount of usages (lol) in the next month. For our intents and purposes, it would mean that the usage would continue to be near zero, as they were.

By the way, X-Act, I have a question regarding the algorithm: Did you test it on previous months to see how accurate it was? I understand that the predictions for December or January should not be that reliable, having only two or three data points, but maybe you've done it, and if that's the case, I'd love to see the results, if possible. Did the algorithm predict the Blissey fall, Garchomp and Gengar rise, etc, etc? The real test will begin from now on, but it's also true that just by publishing the tier list here, those pokémon in the list will rise in their usage, influencing the result.

[SMZ]

Abomasnow OU, and Weezing not, wow, but I guess people hate SS so much, they make hail teams with of course with only Abomasnow can bring it (and Snover lol)..as for Weezing, I guess other P.Walls are becoming more popular, Forre/Zong/Phan.. but still I find it very useful in my main team (EQ immunity and Heracross/G-Dos countering is awesome).

[CardsOfTheHeart]

Originally Posted by Fat Time Mage

By the way, X-Act, I have a question regarding the algorithm: Did you test it on previous months to see how accurate it was? I understand that the predictions for December or January should not be that reliable, having only two or three data points, but maybe you've done it, and if that's the case, I'd love to see the results, if possible. Did the algorithm predict the Blissey fall, Garchomp and Gengar rise, etc, etc? The real test will begin from now on, but it's also true that just by publishing the tier list here, those pokémon in the list will rise in their usage, influencing the result.

I actually made an analysis of the top 60 Pokemon in weighted usage in March. I compared the February usage, the predicted March usage, and the actual March usage AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL WEIGHTED USAGE. (The predicted March usage factored in all previous monthly usages.)

In terms of predicting whether the percentage of total weighted usage for a Pokemon would increase or decrease from February to March, the algorithm got 17 of them right. That's a ~28.3% success rate.

As far as I'm concerned, this is more of an indication of how difficult usages are to predict rather than the algorithm itself.


Here's something interesting that came out of the data concerning those in the top 10 of March usage:

Pokemon that were expected to decrease in % usage:
Blissey
Infernape

Pokemon that actually decreased in % usage:
Garchomp
Gengar
Tyranitar
Lucario
Heatran
Metagross

Only Gyarados and Bronzong out of the top 10 were "correctly" predicted to increase in % usage.

[AJC]

Kingdra got some really good inprovements in finally gaining worthwhile stab for DD and strong dragon stab in dragon pulse and draco meteor not to mention sniper is a very silly trait not even skarm can sit on a DD sniper CH waterfall and feel fine afterwards

[Colonel M]

I missed how Delibird was in the OU threat list. That santa bird has a bigger sack of courage than Gyarados has any other day.

On a more serious note, I'm kind of glad to see Gallade enter OU finally, since now they finally figured out his "potential".

[picklesword]

Kingdra was always good in DP, I just did not want anyone to find out :(. Also Kingdra is decent in Ubers as well, bare a few ubers, but no poke is perfect.

[Automatic]

Originally Posted by Fat picklesword

Kingdra was always good in DP, I just did not want anyone to find out :(. Also Kingdra is decent in Ubers as well, bare a few ubers, but no poke is perfect.

I'm glad you were the first person to ever use Kingdra.

[EvilMario]

Next post is a thousand, Brawlex. ^_^

Just noticed that Lickilicky is number 142 in usage. I've been using one lately, and it's incredible more people can't find room for a Pokemon with decent all around stats.. and a pretty wide attacking, and assisting movepool.

[Lyfsaho]

Originally Posted by Fat Obi

There are never exceptions to rules. If they are exceptions, it's not a rule; it's a heuristic.

Your reasoning would be correct in a perfect world. In the one we live in, sadly, there's no "rule" without an exception to it.

Originally Posted by Fat Brawlex

Nice OU list, I agree with everything, also some stuff Lyfsaho said in this thread is fucking retarted, also do both dragons outclass Dragonite? Also Jolteon is pretty good. :]

thanks, I love you too. (hint - try not to misspell the key word in your insult next time)

[Kira]

Originally Posted by Fat Lyfsaho

Your reasoning would be correct in a perfect world. In the one we live in, sadly, there's no "rule" without an exception to it.

If their is an exception to a "rule" it is not a rule, it is just a heuristic. So by your logic we dont have any actual rules, just heuristics.

Dont confuse it as a rule just because we call it one. It would not be the first time we have used a word incorrectly.

[jujuomi]

Kingdra Fails as life due to Sand Stream. I know it's good, UNDER RAIN. I think that if Rain Dance is the only reason this is ou.... =\

Kingdra works perfectly fine without rain. Not to mention, why would a rock switch to a water type in the rain 2x speed and STAB/1.5 boosted (sometimes LO/1.3) surfs/waterfalls?(in this situation)

Switched out t-tar
Sand storm began to brew
Kingdra used rain dance
It began to rain

I'm not sure thats the exact text but that beside the point. .Even if its rain gets sandstormed/hailed away it can just rain dance again. Other than tyrani-boah's t-bolt(which gets replaced by ice beam sometimes) or focus punch(which has a .5 reduction), I don't see what damage hippowdon/t-tar/abomasnow could do to it while dancing.

And I'll say it again, Kingdra doesn't HAVE to be a rain dance sweeper.

[EvilMario]

Originally Posted by Fat jujuomi

Kingdra works perfectly fine without rain. Not to mention, why would a rock switch to a water type in the rain 2x speed and STAB/1.5 boosted (sometimes LO/1.3) surfs/waterfalls?(in this situation)

Switched out t-tar
Sand storm began to brew
Kingdra used rain dance
It began to rain

I'm not sure thats the exact text but that beside the point. .Even if its rain gets sandstormed/hailed away it can just rain dance again. Other than tyrani-boah's t-bolt(which gets replaced by ice beam sometimes) or focus punch(which has a .5 reduction), I don't see what damage hippowdon/t-tar/abomasnow could do to it while dancing.

And I'll say it again, Kingdra doesn't HAVE to be a rain dance sweeper.

Agreed, rain helps him considerable, but he's not dead weight without it. The either of the Sniper sets in the analysis look fun to try, not as reliable, but capable of destroying anything that switches in.

[xcfrisco]

Originally Posted by Fat Lyfsaho

snip

Your missing out on a big issue when it comes to Donphan. RAPID SPIN is pretty much the only reason to use to Donphan at all.

[1059860]

Sadly no Deoxys-E :(

[CardsOfTheHeart]

Originally Posted by Fat 1059860

Sadly no Deoxys-E :(

Deoxys-S is in Limbo (i.e. still being debated); otherwise it would be OU along with Wobbuffet.

[spiderweb]

Thanks Dragonite is still OU he can be a pain after he DD and its movepool are great both Special and Physical. DD+Outrage will almost ohko and 2Ohko All Pokes in the game. Steel maybe take some more like Skarmory and Bronzong but a boosted Fire Punch will hurt pretty much or Fire Blast. Well heatran still blocks you. And you can roost up then you be Neutral to Rock and 2x weak to ice.

[chaos**]

http://www.gamespot.com/ds/rpg/pokem...992&pid=925601 heh heh april fools guys

[Wayff]

Haha, April Fools, also, Gorm is posting on gamespot...?

[gorm]

it's just a copy of gamefaqs
yes i post on gamefaqs so what foreys does to ok!!