Will 4th Gen Wi-Fi die when 5th Gen comes around?

[NixHex]

Hi all.

Being fairly new to the metagame (though I've been playing Pokémon for 12 years), I am worried that all my hard work for building Wi-Fi teams will go to waste. I waited so long for an "easy" solution to IV/Nature/Hidden Power breeding, which was what held me back from even trying competitive Wi-Fi. When RNG abuse became easier and easier, I now had the ability to get tons of viable Pokémon I would never have been able to get, but it's been tough to find the time to EV train all of my new captures. Having gotten into shoddy within the past year, I became distracted, basically having a bunch of cool untrained Pokémon, and have just in the past few weeks FINALLY built an actual team.

However, it will be very exciting for me to see a metagame evolve from its roots, instead of how I entered the current metagame rather late. I completely missed out on the days of Garchomp's broken OU status, Deoxys-e's short life in OU, glass cannons like Porygon-z and Rampardos actually seeing use, lack of Bullet Punch Scizor, and so on. Hopefully I can get a grasp of this new metagame from the get-go and be able to contribute to Smogon in something besides my niche in FR/LG RNG abuse.

Here are some points I'd like to discuss, the most obvious being the title of the post.

1. Will Competitive Generation 4 Wi-Fi die out quickly?
2. Will Competitive Generation 4 Shoddy die out quickly?
3. How soon will the Competitive Generation 5 metagame come in full swing? Will it begin with the release of the Japanese carts?
4. Will the impending release of a new simulator (Shoddy 2), built with the mechanics of Generation 4 in mind, distract from a full fledged Generation 5 Simulator?
5. Will RNG Research start with the initial release of the Japanese carts, or will we wait until the NA/Euro/Australian (since Smogon is, overall, an English-speaking community) releases?

I have a few of my own speculations, but I do not know the answers to all of these questions.

1. No, not immediately. I didn't see the end of Adv., but I'm assuming that since non-simulator play was not possible on a large scale minus tournaments, it died rather quickly (again I don't know if this was the case -- was it?. With Wi-Fi being the primary vessel of 4th generation non-simulator and non-tournament play will keep it alive for a little while.

2. Also, no. Shoddy battle, in particular the Smogon server, is booming, and I doubt it will just flat out die just because we have a new RPG in our hands.

5. HG/SS abuse started with the Japanese releases, but since D/P/Pt had already been mastered, researchers sort of knew what to look for (in-game actions like phone calls and radio tuning). Hopefully the seeding process and possible in-game actions will be similar in B/W.

As for 3 and 4, I do not have the experience necessary to form a full opinion, but I would love to see others discuss this.

[bearsfan092]

I can answer some of these with a fair degree of certainty:
1. No clue, don't really care all that much I suppose.
2. Probably not. Some people still play RBY/GSC/ADV, but the population will drop by a lot.
3. As soon as a sizable amount of people have access to the game and understand the mechanics, a metagame will begin, although the beginnings will be rough as people will struggle with ingame nuances prior to a simulator being developed.
4. No clue.
5. HGSS RNG abuse research was done on Japanese carts, giving a solid foundation for the American releases. You can bet that there will be people at least looking into the Japanese versions.

[Human]

1. Will Competitive Generation 4 Wi-Fi die out quickly? All depends on how different the metagame ends up being. Probably when it first comes out people may begin using 4th Gen Teams on Wifi. Soon enough it may change. No clue in the end though.
2. Will Competitive Generation 4 Shoddy die out quickly? Just as quickly as Generation 4 Wifi dies and how quickly a Gen 5 Simulator comes out.
3. How soon will the Competitive Generation 5 metagame come in full swing? Will it begin with the release of the Japanese carts? I doubt it will begin for Smogon once it comes out in Japan, it will probably begin once there is a simulator and a month or two after that simulator comes out.
4. Will the impending release of a new simulator (Shoddy 2), built with the mechanics of Generation 4 in mind, distract from a full fledged Generation 5 Simulator? I have no clue how the developers are doing for Shoddy 2, so I have no clue.
5. Will RNG Research start with the initial release of the Japanese carts, or will we wait until the NA/Euro/Australian (since Smogon is, overall, an English-speaking community) releases? It will begin with the initial release of the Japanese carts as more and more people are

A. Getting more interested in the VGC
B. The importance has been realized by the majority of the community
C. Going along with the previous reasons - there may be more help as well

[Haunter**]

There's already a mega speculation thread about Gen V. There's no need for another one.