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Analysis of Pokemon Usages: Which Pokemon were used by high-ranked players in May?

Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by X-Act, Jun 27, 2008.

  1. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
    is a Site Staff Alumnusis a Programmer Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnusis a Researcher Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis an Administrator Alumnus

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    Shoddybattle statistics provide both weighted and unweighted usages of Pokemon. Since the weighted usage of a Pokemon is simply the sum of the ladder rankings of the players using it at that time, then we can calculate the average player ladder ranking for each Pokemon as follows:

    Average Player Ladder Ranking = Weighted Usage / Unweighted Usage

    This can tell us which Pokemon are used by the best players.

    I decided to do this for the top 250 Pokemon in the weighted list. I then found the average and standard deviation ranking for these 250 Pokemon. Those Pokemon that are above the mean+standard deviation were then considered to be used by 'expert' players. Those Pokemon that are below the mean-standard deviation were considered to be used by 'novice' players. All the others (being within one standard deviation from the mean) were deemed to be used by 'normal' players.

    Here are, then, the Pokemon used by the 'expert' players, and their ranking in May's weighted list:

    Code:
      #  Pokemon     Average Player Rating
    --------------------------------------
    [B] 46  Wobbuffet   1357.195234[/B]
    [B] 13  Celebi      1354.885924[/B]
    [B] 20  Zapdos      1332.453283[/B]
     69  Mesprit     1330.872288
    [B]  8  Heatran     1327.69591[/B]
    [I] 43  Roserade    1324.902768[/I]
     68  Shaymin     1318.228349
    [B] 26  Suicune     1310.31188[/B]
    [B]  5  Tyranitar   1309.461581[/B]
    [B] 25  Magnezone   1307.620508[/B]
    [B] 37  Deoxys-S    1306.65134[/B]
    [B]  6  Bronzong    1299.188471[/B]
    [B] 19  Heracross   1299.035911[/B]
    [B] 22  Azelf       1293.356838[/B]
    [B]  1  Garchomp    1293.01291[/B]
    [B] 28  Jirachi     1291.013242[/B]
    [B] 14  Gliscor     1290.837871[/B]
    [B]  4  Gyarados    1290.809299[/B]
     85  Walrein     1288.95022
    [B] 41  Mamoswine   1285.562532[/B]
    [B] 12  Starmie     1276.957552[/B]
    [B] 23  Cresselia   1276.578109[/B]
    [B] 36  Tentacruel  1273.46372[/B]
    [B] 11  Metagross   1272.099143[/B]
     86  Moltres     1269.505804
    [B] 27  Machamp     1267.65269[/B]
    [B] 49  Abomasnow   1265.015125[/B]
    154  Skuntank    1264.743676
     67  Uxie        1264.036991
    [B] 34  Hippowdon   1263.70761[/B]
    [B]  7  Lucario     1263.495902[/B]
    [B] 42  Dugtrio     1263.395664[/B]
    [B] 21  Vaporeon    1262.825089[/B]
    [I] 48  Spiritomb   1258.000472[/I]
    [B]  2  Gengar      1257.158098[/B]
    [B] 10  Salamence   1253.657336[/B]
    [B]  3  Blissey     1253.070887[/B]
    [B] 15  Swampert    1252.995923[/B]
    139  Nidoqueen   1251.542515
    [B] 29  Breloom     1248.96794[/B]
    [B] 16  Skarmory    1248.575719[/B]
    [B] 18  Forretress  1248.102821[/B]
    Now the Pokemon used by 'normal' players:
    Code:
      #  Pokemon     Average Player Rating
    --------------------------------------
     81  Porygon2    1242.6028
    [B] 35  Scizor      1241.728662[/B]
     96  Jumpluff    1241.412674
     54  Mismagius   1239.275428
    [B]  9  Infernape   1239.006717[/B]
     61  Slowbro     1232.74
    [B] 24  Togekiss    1231.975919[/B]
     78  Raikou      1230.705657
    [B] 33  Yanmega     1230.54624[/B]
     53  Empoleon    1230.094602
    106  Kabutops    1228.758886
    [B] 32  Snorlax     1225.524651[/B]
    121  Regirock    1222.068589
    [B] 39  Milotic     1220.202825[/B]
    238  Phanpy      1217.5
    [B] 17  Weavile     1214.784937[/B]
     74  Hitmontop   1213.858407
    [B] 51  Kingdra     1213.728823[/B]
     70  Staraptor   1212.975024
    120  Gastrodon   1212.836672
    [B] 38  Jolteon     1211.941711[/B]
    102  Rotom       1211.731164
    141  Torkoal     1210.938895
    103  Registeel   1210.841805
    [B] 45  Donphan     1210.682514[/B]
     57  Weezing     1208.719339
     72  Cradily     1206.512776
     93  Hariyama    1204.686803
    142  Linoone     1203.860382
     65  Steelix     1203.782772
    [B] 50  Gallade     1203.663296[/B]
    104  Miltank     1203.607184
     58  Froslass    1202.443403
    245  Tangela     1200.827586
    111  Lanturn     1199.774319
     92  Azumarill   1198.445727
     63  Smeargle    1197.380235
    125  Electrode   1197.096718
     94  Cloyster    1197.094995
    [B] 30  Dusknoir    1196.824439[/B]
     62  Tangrowth   1196.661039
     76  Shuckle     1195.713312
    130  Poliwrath   1195.628024
    210  Ditto       1192.482014
    144  Omastar     1192.179707
    140  Tauros      1188.171982
     59  Crobat      1185.166705
     84  Medicham    1184.204279
    126  Slaking     1183.775439
    175  Dodrio      1182.819588
     87  Regice      1182.719549
     88  Claydol     1180.979618
     79  Floatzel    1180.14428
     95  Honchkrow   1179.824666
    171  Camerupt    1179.388753
    [B] 44  Dragonite   1178.413881[/B]
    129  Qwilfish    1177.133136
     77  Drapion     1176.616187
    100  Ursaring    1175.091714
    162  Butterfree  1174.003552
    199  Stantler    1172.043478
    134  Venomoth    1171.84839
     60  Rhyperior   1171.574608
     98  Toxicroak   1171.148014
     64  Sceptile    1170.484907
    161  Probopass   1169.687609
     82  Clefable    1169.234206
    178  Lunatone    1167.735376
    128  Cacturne    1164
    146  Lopunny     1161.961741
    105  Glaceon     1161.129588
    132  Jynx        1159.761523
     97  Lapras      1159.489806
     75  Ludicolo    1158.325389
    169  Vileplume   1158.244541
    143  Exeggutor   1157.132319
    170  Regigigas   1156.894737
    123  Shedinja    1156.750567
    133  Hitmonlee   1156.623872
    168  Kecleon     1156.138593
    118  Persian     1152.194703
    209  Purugly     1150.609589
     83  Gardevoir   1150.272934
    [B] 40  Ninjask     1149.684258[/B]
    229  Magcargo    1148.918367
    127  Banette     1148.673874
    147  Kangaskhan  1148.369935
    190  Sableye     1147.313725
    117  Drifblim    1146.327182
     73  Ambipom     1145.680093
    [B] 47  Porygon-Z   1143.738164[/B]
    196  Yanma       1142.876238
    206  Exploud     1142.037037
    148  Articuno    1140.745124
     66  Aerodactyl  1140.279823
    116  Nidoking    1139.445286
     89  Flygon      1139.444258
    241  Corsola     1138.921053
    151  Relicanth   1138.891365
    172  Clamperl    1137.281324
    202  Granbull    1137.104972
    [B] 31  Electivire  1136.432464[/B]
    112  Ninetales   1135.481343
    193  Arbok       1135.261062
     55  Umbreon     1134.835826
    152  Rapidash    1134.068613
    150  Zangoose    1130.762846
    131  Hypno       1130.399414
    219  Dewgong     1128.032258
     80  Venusaur    1127.707642
    181  Politoed    1127.324022
    101  Swellow     1127.077504
     90  Absol       1126.968314
    122  Pinsir      1126.674402
    176  Quagsire    1126.565432
    113  Marowak     1125.890166
    135  Lickilicky  1123.87714
    119  Leafeon     1123.597183
    197  Xatu        1122.10101
    203  Parasect    1121.442623
    158  Manectric   1119.110048
    184  Noctowl     1118.821086
    136  Scyther     1118.491753
     99  Houndoom    1116.338446
    180  Gorebyss    1114.887399
    221  Girafarig   1112.057377
    224  Castform    1110.663793
    124  Espeon      1110.605457
    107  Blaziken    1110.51323
    174  Bibarel     1110.314286
     52  Alakazam    1109.786343
    149  Muk         1109.445302
    177  Grumpig     1109.132275
    240  Pelipper    1108.746835
    110  Feraligatr  1107.551724
    215  Stunky      1107.316547
    108  Magmortar   1106.223691
     71  Arcanine    1105.421611
    153  Hitmonchan  1105.255072
    212  Diglett     1105.195946
    198  Magby       1104.2
    137  Sandslash   1103.965874
    249  Huntail     1103.666667
    179  Mantine     1101.063325
    195  Sudowoodo   1101.032558
     56  Charizard   1100.075112
     91  Blastoise   1097.92863
    192  Solrock     1097.919847
    138  Slowking    1097.620083
    213  Drifloon    1097.61745
    243  Sunflora    1093.507246
    166  Armaldo     1092.763573
    239  Cherrim     1091.156627
    186  Shiftry     1090.05296
    183  Octillery   1088.118457
    200  Glalie      1086.292308
    227  Seviper     1085.508621
    165  Primeape    1083.747405
    188  Raticate    1079.845395
    109  Typhlosion  1078.606987
    115  Rampardos   1075.177207
    160  Mr. Mime    1074.007825
    225  Dusclops    1072.391667
    145  Sharpedo    1066.864212
    157  Ampharos    1066.784024
    114  Torterra    1064.909866
    236  Trapinch    1063.922222
    218  Furret      1060.037594
    216  Mightyena   1058.166667
    231  Vigoroth    1056.494949
    233  Bellossom   1055.739583
    242  Masquerain  1055.432099
    182  Dunsparce   1054.390501
    208  Taillow     1052.710059
    And the Pokemon used by 'novice' players:
    Code:
      #  Pokemon     Average Player Rating
    --------------------------------------
    217  Chatot      1044.846715
    237  Delibird    1038.967391
    250  Delcatty    1038.482759
    232  Ariados     1035.510204
    204  Electabuzz  1034.502674
    214  Magmar      1030.38961
    223  Entei       1027.095238
    156  Pikachu     1024.890625
    164  Aggron      1022.822764
    167  Altaria     1022.53367
    234  Phione      1019.515152
    159  Kingler     1018.547584
    244  Bonsly      1015.054795
    189  Bastiodon   1008.729452
    194  Chansey     1006.545082
    185  Golem       1005.626437
    163  Raichu      1005.421538
    226  Crawdaunt   1000.904762
    207  Vespiquen    985.420765
    155  Meganium     984.7003995
    220  Mawile       981.9785714
    205  Flareon      971.8762887
    201  Beedrill     971.4953704
    211  Victreebel   963.5847953
    191  Wailord      948.8045603
    173  Golduck      946.4063745
    235  Wigglytuff   944.745098
    248  Tropius      940.7941176
    247  Haunter      913.6944444
    187  Luxray       901.2811671
    222  Ledian       894.8445946
    246  Mothim       880.038961
    230  Rattata      853.129771
    228  Pidgeot      667.2096774
    In all three lists above, the bolded Pokemon are those that are considered OU right now, while the italics ones are those that are probably going to be OU come next July 1st.

    Unsurprisingly, most Pokemon that are used by 'expert' players are OU. The Pokemon being used by the highest ranked players on average, interestingly, is none other than Wobbuffet, while Electivire is the Pokemon in OU with the lowest ranked players using it. The average player ranking out of that list is 1148.53, and Electivire's player ranking is even lower than this average. So is that of Porygon-Z, and Ninjask is very near this average too. These three OU Pokemon (Electivire, Ninjask and Porygon-Z) are kinda the 'noob' OU Pokemon.
  2. imperfectluck

    imperfectluck
    is a Past WCoP Winnerwon the 4th Official Smogon Tournament

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    This is a very interesting thread. Will this be repeated for June's statistics? I also find it interesting how I use the 3 highest ranked Pokemon on that list.
  3. the_artic_one

    the_artic_one

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    154 Skuntank 1264.743676

    This was the most surprising to me, what do the experts know about skuntank that the rest of us don't?
  4. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    I'll do it again for June's statistics if you wish.
  5. animenagai

    animenagai
    is a Past WCoP Winner

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    please do this again x-act, i love it! i used wobb extensively in may, so i must be good :D. this should add to the 'wobb is uber' arguments. keep in mind that lesser used pokes can look real good just because a few really good players use them. no, this should not make skuntank OU.

    since i'm already at it, might as well post some thoughts on why these pokes are ranked where they are. there are lots of pokemon that i find hard to fit on a team despite their high rankings. these are:

    1. infernape. LO + sandstorm just proved too much to me. don't forget SR damage either. too much damage on a fragile poke.

    2. scizor. it's just too easily walled. i can see potential with niche roles but flying types just love facing scizor, especially gyara and mence due to intimidate.

    3. yanmega. 50% SR damage is just no good. so many people use it with LO too. it can wear down really easily especially when the current metagame is filled with bulky sweepers.

    4. weavile. bronzongs are running all over the place and gengars - something weaviles were known to trap kill, now commonly run scarves.

    5. snorlax. it's just hard using normal type physical threats. skarm, zong, dusknoir... you get the picture. there are better rest talkers.
  6. Trust

    Trust

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    Some surprises:
    - Mesprit: it's quite useful, but I don't find a way to use it correctly. However some people have found its usefulness.
    - Shaymin: it's barely used, but who use it are quite strong. I only see Specs set, which have a limited movepool, so I don't understand why it's so used.
    - Walrein: with Walrein so high, we can find that Hail teams are used by strong people.
    - Skuntank: I don't understand this, sorry.
    - Nidoqueen: I've used it with success, because it's a good Heracross and SDLucario counter, can lay down Toxic Spikes, Stealth Rock, absorb that Toxic Spikes, and and with Roar it can PHaze quite well.
    - Porygon2 > PorygonZ: do you understand this?.

    Anyway, what are we missing about Mesprit, Shaymin and Skuntank?
  7. Blue Kirby

    Blue Kirby Never back down.
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    I'm not surprised by Mesprit at all - I use it on a lot of my teams with plenty of success. Skuntank sticks out like a sore thumb to me on the list - I can "justify" the other highly ranked Pokemon; each has a niche it fills in some way or another. I'll definitely be looking into this.

    Excellent work, as always, X-Act. Much appreciated. :)
  8. Deco

    Deco

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    Nice work as always, X-Act. ^^

    I'm not surprised about most things, really - I've always considered Ninjask and Electivire n00b-OU Pokemon, as most people who still think those are good Pokemon are n00bs anyway.

    Also, Wobbuffet at first place might be a good argument for it being uber... one could conclude that using Wobbuffet makes your rating increase. x3

    I'm kinda wtf'ing at Mesprit being so high. o.o;
  9. CardsOfTheHeart

    CardsOfTheHeart

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    Mesprit has the ability to counter Gyarados, Garchomp, and Infernape, among other things. Should its high rating really be such a shock? (Okay, higher than Heatran is a little bit of a surprise...)

    The real WTF is, of course, Skuntank. Heh, must be for the WTF factor. lol
  10. EvilBob

    EvilBob

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    I'm guessing the deal with Skuntank is that it's pretty low on the average usage list, so being on just a couple teams that ended up moderately high in ranking would bump it up pretty high.
  11. kd24

    kd24 lemme just whip my dick out and slam it on the table
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    Yeah. But still, Im always glad to see Skuntank ranked above Lucario.
  12. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    Well, maybe there was a high-ranking player in May who was experimenting with Skuntank.

    EDIT: These were the Pokemon used by 'experts' in April:

    Code:
      #  Pokemon     Average Player Rating
    --------------------------------------
    191  Sunkern     1482.336957
    [B] 43  Wobbuffet   1351.264452[/B]
    [B] 15  Celebi      1339.323781[/B]
     73  Mesprit     1330.504567
    [B] 47  Deoxys-S    1329.663772[/B]
    [B] 22  Zapdos      1319.160436[/B]
    [B]  5  Tyranitar   1318.568092[/B]
    [B]  8  Heatran     1313.558359[/B]
    [B] 26  Jirachi     1311.774371[/B]
    [B] 14  Gliscor     1300.457125[/B]
     82  Shaymin     1296.629252
    [B]  1  Garchomp    1291.060546[/B]
    [B] 20  Azelf       1289.938249[/B]
    [B]  4  Gyarados    1288.767375[/B]
    [B] 44  Dugtrio     1287.248012[/B]
    [I] 50  Roserade    1286.397905[/I]
    [B]  7  Bronzong    1285.640865[/B]
    [B] 32  Mamoswine   1285.632671[/B]
    [B] 21  Cresselia   1284.963119[/B]
    [B] 33  Magnezone   1282.471658[/B]
    [B] 18  Heracross   1277.668828[/B]
    [B]  9  Starmie     1277.544353[/B]
    [B]  6  Lucario     1276.314371[/B]
    [B] 31  Machamp     1270.386419[/B]
    [B] 27  Hippowdon   1267.985191[/B]
    [B] 40  Suicune     1267.741505[/B]
     96  Uxie        1265.273377
     88  Porygon2    1264.105828
    [B] 16  Swampert    1262.550627[/B]
    [B] 25  Breloom     1260.624922[/B]
    [B] 51  Abomasnow   1258.722864[/B]
    [B] 41  Tentacruel  1255.958439[/B]
     56  Mismagius   1254.569389
    [B] 13  Skarmory    1254.417011[/B]
     75  Cradily     1251.752231
    [B] 12  Metagross   1251.315439[/B]
    [B] 24  Snorlax     1250.697852[/B]
    [B] 17  Forretress  1249.755686[/B]
    103  Kabutops    1248.134581
    [B]  2  Gengar      1247.068385[/B]
    There seems to have been a relatively-high ranking Sunkern gimmick user in April.
  13. Amelia

    Amelia

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    ... sunkern...
    Now that's even more weird... but nice job X-Act!
  14. TheMaskedNitpicker

    TheMaskedNitpicker Triple Threat
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    Thanks for putting this together, X-Act. It's definitely some very interesting info.

    Nope. Correlation does not imply causality. Any number of other explanations are possible. For instance, it could be that good players tend to be the ones that ignore the 'code of honor' surrounding Wobbuffet and therefore make up a very high percentage of its users. It could also mean that using Wobbuffet successfully takes a great amount of skill and that only expert players can use it to good effect. Seems to me that this last conclusion would be a good argument for it staying in OU, since one of the popular reasons for banning it is that it 'removes skill from the game'.

    Good thinking. X-Act, is it possible that you could include the number of unweighted usages on this chart as well? This could give us a bit more info on the 'fluke' factor for each of these Pokémon.

    EDIT: I have a question. When 'weighted statistics' are calculated, what's the exact algorithm? Is it the ranking of the player when they start the match, after they finish the match, or does Shoddy keep track of the number of uses for each Pokémon on an account over the month and then multiply by the month-end ranking?
  15. Jumpman16

    Jumpman16 np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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    I love this a lot, thanks X-Act. I will remind you and everyone else though (because it hasn't been posted yet), that the preponderance of alternate accounts is going to throw these numbers off an awful lot. You almost need look no farther than the top two players on the ladder right now to realize this: they are both "imperfectluck" for whatever reason.

    His analajim account is #6 as well, and for a player who's voiced his goal of whoring Wobbuffet until it gets banned, you can start to realize one of the main reasons Wobbuffet is so high on this index. I honestly don't know whatever alts he has or other players have, but until we're able to pin this down, we unfortunately cannot place much stock in these stats.
  16. Imran

    Imran
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    Hmmmm, I'm not sure about this. The first 5 pokemon on the list used by expert Players are Legendaries, with the exception of the Wobb, which has recently been moved down from Ubers. This seems to go against the old phrase "Those who battle without legends, don't have the skills to deal with them." Seeing as the "Experts" use the legends, then doesn't that seem to suggest that they rely on their legends, to be "experts."

    The other explination is that... LOL I'm ill and i can't remember what i was going to say. Either way there was an alternative explaination. Anyway the conclusion of this small piee of writing is that bit about the legends earlier!
  17. EvilBob

    EvilBob

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    Although would be nice information to see, he does list Skuntank's position on the usage chart, which is only 154 (163 on the unweighted list), which is definitely low enough for a couple high ladder players to bring up the usage ranking.
  18. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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    I think listing the fact that it's only the 154th used Pokemon is good enough. :) If you're curious, it was used 593 times in May.

    From the Shoddybattle site:

    Each usage scores the pokemon a number of points equal to its trainer's conservative estimated rating at the point when this list was compiled...

    I'd guess that means that it counted the players' ratings as they were in June 1st.
  19. TheMaskedNitpicker

    TheMaskedNitpicker Triple Threat
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    Thanks!

    Interesting. That means that if a player's skill improved a lot over the course of a month, their 'noobish' teams from the beginning of the month have just as much effect on the weighted totals as their 'expert' teams near the end of the month. Hardly an ideal system, I'd say.

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding how these statistics are calculated, but I don't think that a player having multiple high-ranking accounts makes these stats any different than if that player had a single high-ranking account. For weighted usage, it's just ranking multiplied by number of usages. It shouldn't matter much if those usages are split among several accounts as long as all those accounts have about the same ranking at the end of the month.
  20. Taylor

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    Great work, X-Act.

    I'm not too suprised that Wobbuffet is used the majority of the time by high-ranked players on the ladder. As such, this is easy to acknowledge once you realise that ipl has two accounts on the top ten of the Shoddy Battle ladder. On the other hand, you see, many lower-tiered players don't tend to use Wobbuffet due to their misundertanding of the Pokemon in general - believing it's not that great - or the fact that they won't use it because they simply do not like it - hatred fumed through Wobbuffet's "uberness". Don't get me wrong, though, as there are many higher-tiered players who simply do not use Wobbuffet either.
  21. Dr.Traveler

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    Thanks for the work.

    Interesting to find that of the 6 on my current team, 5 are in the normal category and 1 in the Expert. I definitely should play more.
  22. Great Sage

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    I wasn't particularly surprised by any of this, but of course, awesome work, X-Act. Electivire as the bottom OU sounds pretty much right, though its usage seems to be dropping; I only saw 1 of them so far this month.
  23. BlueCookies

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    I'll take the credit for the Walrein usage, as for most of May I used a hail team to great affect. It surprisingly dominated nearly everyone I played against, so I guess that's why he was so high.

    Who was the one who used Sunkern again, I remember a few people were talking about it in the main chat or somewhere, I don't remember. Something makes me think it was KinglerDude, but I'm not sure.

    So let me get this straight, if someone ranked at the top(IPL) used Magicarp/Sunkern/Metapod/Weedle/whatever for only one match, they would all be at the top of the list because they were probably only used by him the entire month? So there would be no way to find an average becuse only oneplayer used them?
  24. Jumpman16

    Jumpman16 np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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    The way I look at it, five good people set on whoring the shit out of Wobby could have made accounts that comprise 50% of the top-100 ranked players (I'm exaggerating for a reason). To me, this indicates more that these five players are good/have a lot of time on their hands than that Wobbuffet is the pokemon most used by the players on the ladder.

    To be totally semantic and nitpicky in order to be as clear as possible, the title of this thread would be more accurate if "players" were replaced with "accounts". I may not be thinking about this the right way either, though, and I'd appreciate it if X-Act could weigh in.
  25. TheMaskedNitpicker

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    Well, let's say that a great player plays 5000 matches all on one account. Another great player has five accounts and plays 1000 matches on each. Using these statistics, I don't think the second player's usages count any more than the first player's. I thought is was based on total usages, not percentage of usage per account.

    EDIT: Wait, I think I see what you're saying. The more accounts there are, the lower everyone else's ranking is. Is that right? How is the ranking actually calculated? I suppose I should investigate before making further hypotheses.

    If players are actually whoring Wobbuffet in an effort to get it banned, that's very poor form. That doesn't show that Wobbuffet's powerful. It just shows that good players are using it in order to artificially raise its usage. Not cool.

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