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Discussion in 'Circus Maximus: The Competitive Mafia Hub' started by Blue_Tornado, Jun 19, 2012.
Take your vote off of itchni please thank you
Technically I should have noticed it too but I get lazy when reading through posts in NOC.
##Unvote, ##Vote Darkpenguin
A few things before I go to sleep, if I don't get back to post much before deadline:
@Bodyguard, imo you should be on one of the following: ullar, me, itchni, jalmont. If you want to protect someone else, that's fine, but I would recommend protecting someone active.
I think we should re-evaluate the itchni thing throughout d2 and especially on d3. By d3 I think we'll have enough evidence to decide if he's mafia or a power role. He's definitely suspicious and I do not like how he has played, but his post at least trying to analyze paperblade shows that he is willing to put some effort into this game. I do not want a player like itchni to be lynched so early. He is outspoken and has a very clear opinion on things. Players like that are both good for the town and easier to read.
I want orcinus duo to explain exactly why he thought an itchni lynch was a good idea immediately.
I am annoyed that Walrein ceased contributing as soon as the wagon came off him, despite making another half dozen posts they were mostly just votes with the reasoning "person is dumb" or noncontributing
that is not how you protown
What I see the last couple pages as:
I'm willing to trust you, but its on your head if itchni ends up as mafia.
why does everyone accuse me of being inactive when i'm sleeping
people do sleep you know
Well... not many more reads are going to be made. From that, my opinions as of day one...
Rediamond: is clean.
UllarWarlord: Is very mildly suspicious. Why would a confirmed villager feel restrained when making accusations? The only reason to hold back is to avoid sounding suspicious and/or a bad read coming back to bite you. He has every reason in the world to be th most active poster in this thread... if he's clean.
Jalmont: High on the inspect list, and I might even put him as the most important to inspect. I think he's trolling, but there's the possibility he wasn't. As far as my read beyond that post, he seems like he's either a real villager or a scum trying hard to sound like a real villager. I can't get anything cinclusive, but I'm leaning towards clean.
Orcinus Duo: I do understand the last bandwagon. Just not the first. I've mentioned why this is scummy earlier, so I'll say undecided, but one of the most likely scum of the active users.
Walrein: Post more. The reason I didn't want to lynch you is that you could have potential to the village. Don't blow it.
Itchini: While his playstyle is evasive and really just trying to get a village lynch early with no need to scout inactives, and challenging the most active players in the village... I would jump on him immediately if he wasn't fairly active.
Paperblade: Probably the cleanest guy we have, although of Orcinus flips scum, it would be worth investigating.
I need more posts. DarkPenguin's posts have been mildly scummy, but he hasn't posted enough to allow for a read, and Dle has really just solidified that an Itchini/Dle scum buddy is entirely possible.
As far as strategy...
If we have a bodyguard, target a random active. Paper blade/Orcinus/Jalmont/Walrein/Rediamond. These are the users who actually reply with reads on people and try to further discussion.
Inspector: Myself, Walrein, Jalmont, and Orcinus seem to be the center of everything as far as active player alliances go. Itchini could also flip Dle, so that would be a solid inspect.
And Cereza, post actual reads, please.
I haven't posted much because I simply do not have much to say at the moment, and due to the fact I have been very busy and haven't had the time to write anything tl;dr
I don't see any reason to lynch darkpenguin67 De Letter El's post is reading way into his posts and I really don't see anything in those posts making him seem like a scum.
****Da Letter El
Itchni (6): Aura Guardian Orcinus Duo manav95 Walrein Aura Guardian Orcinus Duo Jalmont Vintage Books capefeather coolking49
Darkpenguin67 (5): Walrein Jalmont Da Letter El Paperblade Itchni coolking49 shinyskarmory
Cereza (2): Rediamond pokemonrocks777
pokemonrocks777 (1): Rediamond Orcinus Duo shinyskarmory capefeather Walrein Aura Guardian UllarWarlord Itchni
Jalmont (1): Walrein pokemonrocks777 Itchni Cereza
Rediamond (0): Cereza Paperblade pokemonrocks777 Paperblade
Walrein (0): Paperblade Jalmont Orcinus Duo Paperblade Aura Guardian UllarWarlord Itchni Darkpenguin67 shinyskarmory
shinyskarmory (0): Orcinus Duo Rediamond
Aura Guardian (0): Itchni Orcinus Duo
Orcinus Duo (0): Jalmont
Not Voting (1): Darkpenguin67
Itchni is at L-3!
Darkpenguin67 is at L-4!
With 16 players it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is in 7 hours and 12 minutes.
HE seems most suspicious.
And Red, the reason I'm restrained is because I'm an idiot and don't want to influence people just because I'm clean.
Not really, since in my reads, I didn't consider the troll posts much at all. I just mentioned them and looked at your serious posts.
We've managed to get a good number of reads.
I suppose I count as having explained with that analysis post, which is why you don't ask me to?
Most of your recent posts, starting with this one, smack of a mafia trying to save his teammate. When the lynch gets very close, you try to change it to someone else. If Itchni flips scum, or you flip scum, then I believe the other should be immediately lynched.
I just woke up, so I can't go more in-depth, but...
I beleive that Itchni is mafia and that daletterel is his partner, trying to save him.
Just wanted to say that I'm awake, but about to leave for driver's ed. I'll be back at noon, and I'll put together a better post at that time, but for now I'd like to say that this is a pretty typical daletterel move.
I believe that a sufficient web of connections has been built. Now its time to actually gather data. Of the two possible lynches, Itchni's would produce the most information, so...
Let's just push this over, shall we?
I think I have said this before but I personally find darkpenguin to be more likely to be mafia than Itchni, mainly due to the observations I have noticed about darkpenguin, and that I agree wtih DLE regarding Itchni's behavior. (he acts like either power role or scum). I also think Itchni has contributed more (not by much mind you) so I support the darkpenguin lynch.
AG's post is interesting in that if Darkpenguin comes up mafia, then we would have to look at him as a possible scumbuddy. But if Itchni comes up mafia, then dle could be a possible scum candidate. I really feel that we have at least one, if not two mafia in that group of four.
Alright, let's see what happens.
The paranoia has been interesting, to say the least. Even at the outset, we have Rediamond posting
except that was pretty much the first serious analytical post in the thread, and there was little point in participating in what was going on before, other than to vaguely reveal strategies. I guess I can understand acting paranoid to trip people up, but I think we should at least be a bit smarter about it. Plus I think it's unfair to people who just happen to have different schedules from you.
I don't think it's healthy in the long run to scan for lurkers, either. All that this accomplishes is to make it bad to reveal that you're lurking, for both mafia and town (especially important townies and active people who are just trying to get reads). Then people will just private-browse or whatever it takes to look at the forums without being logged on. This is especially true for people who continually get interrupted while on a computer.
This is where I start getting confused. Were people talking about this somewhere beforehand? Still, this is the only post that claims no majoirty = random townie death *before* votecount 1.2. As is said later, randlynching is the town's best bet, assuming no majority = no deaths. However, since in this mafia no majority = random town death, that's even worse and we should try to lynch someone specific. This is why I'm puzzled that people are reading into the bandwagons so much. If we're suspecting bandwagoners, we might as well look at the starters:
Orcinus Duo: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=4281885&postcount=66 http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=4283124&postcount=150
Aura Guardian: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=4282245&postcount=101
On the other hand, these are just people who had an argument and happened to succeed at convincing people for a while.
IMO Orcinus went a little overboard with his reaction to Rediamond's theory on possible mafia factions:
since Rediamond even says, "Assuming their obvious, which they wouldn't be." I mean, the whole general reaction to the thing puts me off a bit:
I just wanted to say all this because, in all likelihood, this is the last chance I'll have to look at and comment on D1 before it's done. I also think we need a lynch right now for information, so I'm leaving my vote on the most "popular" candidate.
Well since I'm L-1 I might as well post my farewell post before I can't speak anymore
Dale and Paperblade are now confirmed clean with my death. They are good players and you should follow their directions. Dale and paperblade wouldn't risk lynching their scum buddy d1.
Lynch Ornicus Duo next for the good of the village. If he is village he won't be any good to us anyways, and he honestly seems the most scummy in this thread to me. He has been part of every single bandwagon so far and is just, not a very agreeable person. Ornicus next time you play mafia make sure you actually read posts and not just think everyone is scummy because of a first impression.
I'll see you on the other side :)
Ok I don't have much time for now but here are my thoughts:
DaLetterEl: When reading through his posts he didn't post anything except questioning OD until Itchni was going to be lynched, then he seemed quick to accuse me while still overlooking those who have contributed almost nothing. From he seems to really push this bandwagon on me. ##Unvote ##Vote Itchni
please can we just fucking lynch darkpenguin
lol, that hammer was so scummy and underhanded
Vig shoot DP please
I'm back, but it turns out I have more stuff to do today, idk how long it'll take but I'll let you know when I'm done.
Concurring with Paperblade on the "shoot dp" thing.
Actually, jalmont changed his vote, so Itchni is at L-1.
Nonetheless it's pretty scummy.
Agreed. Though I still think Itchni is more scummy. One of DLE and Darkpenguin is clean, other may or may not be clean. Though I sort of think it's Itchni and Darkpenguin now, not Itchni and DLE.