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Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Blue_Tornado, Jun 19, 2012.
Good luck not players, go fight win
OH, JUST NOTICED THIS: ORCINUS DUO SAID DAY 1 THAT INSPECTOR SHOULD TARGET INACTIVES. TIME TO FOCUS ON WHO WAS ACTIVE THAT DAY, PERHAPS? I HAVEN'T CHECKED. ((Page 3 gives: Pokemonrocks, capefeather, darkpenguin, vintage books, shinyskarmory, manav95 all from Paperblade's list.))
Page 3: I answer some stuff Paperblade said, etc. I later suggest that inspector shouldn't claim unless they have found a mafia, not even if they can save a villager. Reasons easily found in the post. I also mention that lynching with an odd number of players is a good idea. DLE's finding of mafia has mostly rendered this irrelevant.
Page 4: Huh, somewhere before here, I voted Itchni. Not sure where, but I think it was very early in the game. Wait, just remembered. It was something of a troll/rand vote. I vote Walrein for a nonsense reply to what he thinks the layout (#village, #mafia) is.
Page 5: After unvoting page 4 to read what happened, I call out Walrein's lack of aggressiveness despite what he said in the questionaire. Might be worth mentioning this was my basis behind an Itcni lynch. When I voted Walrein, I stated I was against people putting us near majority, unstated reason of wanting more time to talk/think/discuss/whatever. I comment on how Jalmont's scumfaction (IIRC - not checking - 2 proven correct, 2 proven incorrect, 1 probably incorrect, two alternates
given for the incorrect ones. One alternate is myself) includes around half the living players. In this page, I express a desire to lynch Walrein and/or Darkpenguin.
Page 6: Asleep
Page 7: Vote Pokemonrocks, following two mafia. This is probably the best proof in favor of Pokemonrocks's successor's (not looking it up) innocence. Analysis of Itchni which was very wrong in retrospect. Analysis of Rediamond as village, unless Itchni/Walrein were mafia (then suspicious). As it happens, one of them was mafia, but my view of Rediamond was accurate-ish.
Page 8: rebuttal of Orcinus saying my logic doesn't make sense. Orcinus and I agree on an Itchni lynch, which almost went through.
Page 9: in the interests of not accidentally losing this post, I'm going to post it and continue from here. Thanks to those who stopped me from quadruple posting.
Oh hey page 9, I was asleep. Agh, this is sliding into a summary...
Page 10: I argue for Itchni lynch, say DLE is probably his partner, and argue against Darkpenguin67. I should note that, like DLE, I'd sooner sacrifice my mafia partner than go rambo to save him. It just so happens that I was wrong instead of DLE. After Darkpenguin fails his hammervote, I agree that he should be lynched. Yeah, I guess this could look like realizing trying to save Darkpenguin is lost and cutting losses, but I really did think Darkpenguin might be village until then.
Page 11: I declare that I am going to vote Darkpenguin in 48 minutes, time given so that if someone has an argument in that time, I can react appropriately. Hammervote fails because Walrein beats me to the punch. Nothing much here, just continuations of what I'd said previously.
Page 12: I continue my voting of Itchni for Day 2, since I still think he's mafia. I still think, given the information I had at the time, that Itchni was a better target than Darkpenguin until Itchni failed the hammervote. I then realize how faulty my continued suspicious of Itchni is, and unvote.
Page 13: I hint at my role in response to DLE's questionaire of how many roles in the hopes that the mafia will target me, thus wasting a kill. I also say that there is no way the announcer is village. DLE disproved this of course, but... well if the reaction thing possibility had been ruled out, then there's no way it would be village. Analysis of Capefeather, as promised. Unable to get a read on him. In retrospect... maybe slightly more mafia than town, but still not much from his posts up until that point that I can see. Analysis of Shinyskarmory: mafia, but don't vote. Reason for the not voting was because I wanted to maybe figure out whether the announcement was Nostrodamus, public inspect, or just announcer. I feel that this was one of the few situations where waiting was actually justified.
Page 14: vote Jalmont to make him stop trolling.
Page 15: Nothing of real value.
Posting now to not risk losing this.
Page 16: Nothing of value, though I mention that I'm going to be away for a bit less than two days.
Page 17: I argue with Orcinus just a little, probably would have been more except I had to leave soon. Wait, just looked at timestamps. I had stuff to do. Argument consists of me supporting Da Letter El against Orcinus's insinuations.
HEY, JUST NOTICED: ORCINUS DUO TRIED TO CHANGE OUR ATTENTION AWAY FROM WALREIN AND ONTO CAPEFEATHER.
Page 18: Nothing
Page 19: Ok, final posts before I go for college orientation. I unvote so that no one can take advantage of my vote if I was wrong.
Page 20: I begin claiming, confirm that part of Cereza's flavor (the rest she claimed to have made up, which, given the flavor, seems a reasonable extrapolation) matched my hooked flavor. I also begin my BPV claim, but I only hint at it.
OK, taking a break so I can get something to eat. Someone stop me from quadruple-posting, please.
I see three reasons why they keep hooking me:
• I could one of them happen I to see who did the kill.
•They think I can easily be framed and are trying to do so.
•I'm one of the few players who have claimed; better hook a confirmed role that going for a possible vanilla player.
AG, that is...a gigantic series of posts.
I will read over it when I have some free time. That time isn't now.
HEY!!! That's my line! (go back and read Kingdom NOC mafia when I get lynched)
To answer why I voted you, Walrein: A lot of scummy players failed to hammer you D2, which made you look suspicious. And, as it turns out, you were scum.
Anyway, back on topic, I thought it was pretty obvious from the conversation yesterday that Itchni was BG and that he had protected Cereza on N3. This is what I was referring to in post #627 when I said "reading between the lines."
I also have a feeling he protected Cereza N2, possibly resulting in the no kill. This also calls into question AG's claimof BPV, along with the possible scenario I pointed out yesterday in post #657.
This means that AG's claim of BPV in no way clears him from suspicion. As I said yesterday, I would be fine lynching either AG, Vintage Books, or capefeather today, especially now that Walrein flipped scum. All of them voted for Itchni instead of Darkpenguin D1, and all of them failed to hammer Walrein D2, no matter what excuses they give for not being around.
I will hold off from voting since we still have plenty of time for discussion today.
Page 21: I flat-out claim BPV.
Page 22: I "admit" that it might not have been a good idea to claim BPV despite it beign used up. In retrospect, though for different reasons, I guess it was a bad idea. More on that later.
Aura Guardian (3): Da Letter El UllarWarlord capefeather
Not Voting (6): Everyone else!
Aura Guardian is at L-2!
With 9 players it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is in 72 hours and 53 minutes.
Ack, I didn't mean to post that... Ah well.
Page 23: I don't vote Orcinus Duo, and don't remember why not, but I think it might have had to do with Da Letter El unvoting.
Page 24: Analysis of coolking, null read. Upon reflection of just the posts I analyzed, I'm leaning towards village.
Page 25: Ok, voting patters of Orcinus Duo and Darkpenguin67 fooled me. I thought Walrein was innocent. I retracted this in the same page, though, but...
Page 26: Thought Walrein was innocent again, based on the same info. I then analyze voting patterns, but did so horribly. Looking at the timestamp reveals it was almost when I usually go to bed, so fatigue/tired accounts for horribly analyzed. I thought Cereza might be faking the hooks, but in retrospect, no. DLE speaks reason, and I listen, unvoting. Then, I vote Capefeather to make him talk.
Page 27: I rebut some of J-squared's suspicions of me.
Page 28: Beginning of my accounting for my actions.
I'M ABOUT TO SAY MORE, DON'T WORRY.
Ok, my BPV claim: I claimed because I thought Blue Tornado had waited for the mafia to send in a kill action. The lack of a kill was indicative of them wasting it on me or trying to kill Itchni's target. I was hoping to goad the mafia into wasting a second kill on me. I don't get noticed when my BPV is used up, you see, since it's infinite. I hope this is not the case, but my power might be active, and thus hookable. There does exist a means to bypass my BPV that the mafia can exploit. I figured, mafia might want to kill a random-VT-lynch-if-no-majority person, so if I could make them waste a night or two on me, it would be worthwhile.
Itchni votes: I really did think he was mafia.
Not hammervoting Darkpenguin (ninja'd), Walrein the first time (away, said so in advance).
Bad judgment/always wrong: I haven't played many NOC games. Hosted one, one troll version, mafia once, and inactive (stuff to do) villager in another. That's all I remember. That doesn't mean I'm mafia or anything, it just means I can't figure out who the mafia are.
If you want to cut me open to find out if my opinions can be trusted, fine. We have time. I'd rather that not happen, but fine...
Working on analyzing people for a better target after I go through my binder from last year to find stuff to throw out.
Lost my entire post. Grrr.
1. Thoughts on Cereza; are they the same as from yesterday, or from prior? Explain.
2. Why would the mafia want to kill you on night 2? Try to think of a convincing reason for why the mafia would want to kill you.
@Cereza, thoughts on AG? I've flip-flopped a lot on him, so I can see either way. If you had to guess, do you think he's town or mafia and why?
@capefeather, I see your vote is on AG. Do you think that there might be a better lynch target for today, or do you believe AG is the best thing we're going to get? Explain why.
@coolking, refresh me on your views on cape and aura guardian; I think you've posted a read on at least one of them, but I don't really have time to re-read for a few hours. Have your views on either of these players changed at any point in time?
@yeti, 700 posts is a lot; take your time. Any input you might have would be incredibly nice; you basically led the mafia in the last NOC game I was in on Smogon, so any thoughts you might have would be greatly appreciated.
@Vintage Books, do you believe Aura Guardian's bulletproof claim? Why or why not?
Oh and @AG, in your TL;DR did you already explain why you thought you received hook notification despite being a bulletproof vest? If not, please do that as well
Oh nope, just read your explanation for the hook. Ignore that.
My thoughts on Cereza have indeed changed. I intend to go over Cereza's posts again to make sure I'm not just blinding following your opinions and convincing myself otherwise, though.
Why the mafia would want to kill me: I hinted at having a role other than random VT that day, so it is possible they picked up on my hint and tried. It was theoretically 50-50 me or Itchni's target, and I felt the mafia wouldn't have gone for someone that the BG would likely protect, so I felt I had greater odds of being the one targeted. This was all failing to consider that the mafia might not have sent in a kill.
Yes, in my most recent (before this post) post, I mention why I might have received hook notification. My BPV, which is permanent, might be an active power rather than passive, and thus hookable. It is plausible that hook+kill is how the mafia can kill me, since I know for a fact that there exists a non-lynch way to bypass my BPV.
Going to look at the thread again.
Also, when I said "might want to kill a random-VT-lynch-if-no-majority person", I meant no-majority-immue.
I assume that you mean to say that this was told to you in your role PM? You obviously can't copy and paste it, but I think you would be allowed to confirm or deny this.
I know that there exists a way to bypass it; that was in my role PM albiet phrased slightly differently, but even considering exact words, I think I summarized it accurately. I don't know for a fact if hook+kill works on me though, that was just a plausible scenario I thought of.
Upon re-reading Cereza's posts, without trying to qualify or quantify them, I get a null/town reading. I distinctly remember some stuff that I missed when going over her posts again, though, and those are more cleaning. So, I no longer believe Cereza to be mafia. Might be worth considering voting her off if the game starts dragging on, but... probably not mafia.
Going to have to do some stuff soon, but I'll give a preliminary analysis / starter on who I think would be a good target to lynch
From the player list: j-squared, capefeather, Cereza, Vintage Books, Da Letter El, coolking49, Yeti, Aura Guardian, UllarWarlord
Obvious village; DLE, Ullar
I know is village: Aura Guardian
I think is village: Cereza
Orcinus Duo's behavior indicates clean: capefeather.
Not likely their predecessor was mafia: j-squared
NOTE: I'M NOT SAYING ORCINUS'S BEHAVIOR ACTUALLY CLEANED CAPEFEATHER, NOR THAT POKEMONROCKS' BEHAVIOR CLEANS J-SQUARED, JUST THAT IT INDICATES MAYBE CLEAN. I'D PREFER A CAPEFEATHER LYNCH OVER A CEREZA LYNCH, WHICH MEANS I SORT OF THINK CAPE IS CLEAN, BUT NOT NEARLY COMPLETELY. AND J-SQUARED VOTE OVER CAPEFEATHER, IMO, BUT NOT TOO SCUMMY.
That leaves: Vintage Books, coolking49, Yeti.
Yeti has one post, so I'd be stuck analyzing her predecessor shinyskarmory mostly. As it happens, least posts of the three. So, starting there.
shinyskarmory took the middle ground with Orcinus's post, unlike every other person who answered it. Would a mafia try to stick out like that? He also was in favor of voting Walrein Day 1, but only until Walrein could defend himself and even spoke a bit in Darkpenguin's defense before the hammerfail. Activity spikes for Day 2, after Da Letter El's stunt with the announcement. Now that I'm in shinyskarmory's shoes, his posts seem less like a caught mafia and more like a villager giving legitimate reasons against lynching him. I guess I might have been viewing him through coal-shaded glasses. Shinyskarmory then makes a Vintage Books analysis which is far from glowing approval.
Overall, I think Shinyskarmory is more townish than not. I have to study math (parents are making me do it) for a bit, so I'm going to post this and get to my other analyses later.
Er, Yeti is more townish because shinyskarmory was more townish. Just clarifying a bit.
Ok, Vintage Books time:
He supported the Itchni lynch. Since Orcinus Duo and I sort of agreed on that one, I'm not one to talk. However, he and Walrein both answered Itchni's "don't vote me" questionaire with something along the lines of educated guess or looking at posts. He also speaks against a Darkpenguin lynch. I spoke agaisnt this because I thought DLE was acting like scum, not because I thought Da Letter El was "reading too much" into it. He was also somewhat away for Day 1 and semi-inactive. Next, he posts a list of reads without much justification (some people had some). When Rediamond votes him later, he attacks the reasoning behind it as "???" but I looked into it, and his reason (Vintage Books not contributing much, but also not drawing attention) seems far more valid than ???. He then casts suspicion on coolking for similar reasoning. Day 2, he suggests an Orcinus Duo lynch, but I think we all know how that didn't come too close. He votes capefeather, but swiftly removes. His later support for Orcinus Duo was a toss-up between him and Walrein, so nothing in his favor there. Aside from a disturbing lack of substance in his posts, he continues voting capefeather, which is what Orcinus Duo did...
##vote Vintage Books
I have that better target for you, DLE.
@Aura Guardian, the mafia knew who the doctor was. Why didn't they kill him on night 2 instead of you?
Ack, someone else post. Coolking analysis time.
He initially casts suspicion on Vintage Books and Walrein (not in that order), and agrees with the Itchni vote, giving reason, albiet echoing mine. Itchni had been hypocritical. He later casts suspicion on Vintage Books, Itchni, and Darkpenguin all at once. He was also one of the early Darkpenguin voters. Overall, this smells of village.
Next, he gives a nice post on the announcer v shinyskarmory thing in ss's favor. He then critique's shinyskarmory, but not much else. He then speaks in Itchni's favor and against Cereza, calling her out on some hypocrisy, though he did earlier say that opinions change.
Later, he suggests that Orcinus Duo, based on DLE's request, might be bodyguard. Hindsight 20/20 much? He then analyzes capefeather. Upon reviewing his analysis, I'm reconsidering cape as possibly clean (and upon reviewing DLE's opinion when voting off Walrein). More like possibly mafia. He continues going after Walrein and Orcinus Duo, but by now, we're already going after them. He continues his FoS on Vintage Books. He then reads Orcinus, Walrein, Jalmont, and Vintage Books as mafia while now trusting Cereza (for reason) and capefeather (he thinks more clean from his analysis). Later posts are more on trying to gather info and analyzing the situation, until he mentions that he agrees with the sentiment of looking more into me. I have no objections to this, though DLE's conclusion after doing so was wrong. Continues suspecting Vintage Books.
Would a mafia keep trying to draw attention to one person across the days? Maybe. What about everything else coolking has done? Maybe to each. But together? No way.
My read on coolking: Town.
FoS @ Capefeather and j-squared
Minor suspicion on Yeti, but not much.
I have no good idea. Maybe they wanted to strike first at someone else who they thought wouldn't be protected. Maybe they did just forget to send in a kill. Maybe they wanted to get rid of the person who'd identified too many of them.
I'LL POST! DA-DADA-DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA