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Completely Normal Open Setup 8p NOC - Game Over

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Blue_Tornado, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    <Blue_Tornado> also i just realized
    <Blue_Tornado> the deadline can't be 72 hours from now
    <Blue_Tornado> it's fucking 5:22 am

    Votecount 1.2

    No Lynch (1): THE_IRON_KENYAN
    Daenym (1): Walrein
    Lightwolf (1): Aura Guardian
    zorbees (1): Houndoomsday
    Walrein (1): zorbees
    Yeti (1): Daenym
    Not Voting (2): Yeti LightWolf

    Deadline is at 6:00 PM EST which is in 67.5 hours.
  2. zorbees

    zorbees
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    on friday the 20th?
  3. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    this is a setup that comes from epicmafia.com, and if you know how they play popular setups they literally do it thousands of times until they have an optimum strat for really any scenario going forward.

    they dont always work ofc, some are an instant win in certain situations, and mafia always has a counter optimum strat to go with the village one, but it escapes me if NLing or lynching somebody today is the optimum way to go.

    This is a good discussion; it gets us out of the random voting stage pretty quickly and right into the game.

    Hopefully we can take some time to see what would be the best course of action, but im a little hesitant doing really any lynching on day 1.
  4. zorbees

    zorbees
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    if its 6v2 and we mislynch and get killed it will be 4v2 on day 2 which would be mylo, basically should we no lynch now or later, of course a blocked kill would change things so who knows.
  5. Houndoomsday

    Houndoomsday

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    if we lynch today, we get 2 mislynches, and the third will cause us to lose

    if we no lynch today, we only get 1 mislynch, the second will cause us to lose

    combine the above with the info we get on a flip and im leaning towards a lynch today

    then again, i really have no experience besides 1 game and reading 1 noc, so im just following the precedent set by both of them (d1 lynch)
  6. Walrein

    Walrein

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    I'd advocate no lynching later and lynching today for a couple of reasons.

    1. If we NL today, we'll have less info to get that lynch off with on D2, making it harder on us
    2. The cop has a smaller pool of targets to choose from and thus has a higher chance of hitting scum
    3. We might force a scum into claiming a power role, at which point we can go to town

    The only potential downside to this situation is if we lynch a power role before they're ready to claim, or force them to claim and watch them get hooked to oblivion. Still, I feel the pros outweigh the cons.
  7. zorbees

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    houndoomsday, assuming mafia never gets blocked by a bodyguard, the second mislynch makes us lose either way.

    i do think walrein's logic makes sense though, mainly point #2 though.
  8. Houndoomsday

    Houndoomsday

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    i cant count
  9. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    Just chiming in with: There is no way we should rely on the BG to correctly protect someone AT ALL. The odds of a protect with no claims (DON'T CLAIM) are way too low.
  10. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    The cop isnt very good in this setup; godfather and miller are gonna put a wrench in things. A cops result is pretty much useless tomorrow unless it is mafia, in which case its either miller or mafia.

    We obviously dont want cop to have to claim today in the event of us almost lynching him, because then he will surely get hooked for the rest of the game. We want to give cop the best chance possible of getting the best result he can, a scum result. Thats why we shouldnt lynch anyone.

    If we choose to use the misslynch TODAY we risk making the cop out, and thus not being able to get the only result that would make him of any worth.

    If we also choose to use the misslynch TODAY we wont be able to use it as well if he gets mafia on his report because it will be a 6 man lylo.

    In short, we want to give our cop the chance to get a potential maf report, and have our misslynch available in case we are wrong and it turns out to be miller. Then wed be going into a 5 man lylo the next day, and have a 2/5 chance to hit the mafia, which is a lot better than 2/6 if we are wrong today.
  11. Yeti

    Yeti

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    TIK has shown a bit of investment in the cop's results, perhaps he's looking to ease his randing tonight. or just a concerned villager.

    I agree that it will be rough to get fully accurate results from the cop due to 2 roles fooling him but at the best he could get the roleblocker and we'd have a 50% chance of lynching actual scum if we lynched a 'mafia' result.

    I require more discussion to determine my opinion on using a lynch today. please converse. it is possible that no lynch and lynch could both benefit us depending on what we garner from conversation.
  12. Houndoomsday

    Houndoomsday

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    i think the cop will still be very weak even if we delay a lynch. he literally only detects one half of the mafia, and half the time when he gets a scum result its going to be false

    it should be 1/5 and 1/6 to hit the hooker, because miller isnt mafia and godfather shows up clean. the difference between 1/5 and 1/6 is 3%, and i hardly think giving up a 3 percent chance to hit the hooker outweighs the benefit of a d1 lynch
  13. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    First things first, miller shows up as mafia goon on death, so since the lack of nilla mafia in this game, we WILL know, when we mislynch a miller, is this correct? Also I must also inquire, whether the miller was told he is a miller, or will the miller believe himself to be a simple villager till it's too late? I'd just like there cleared up before I think about what the best course of action is for day 1.
  14. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    Votecount unchanged, deadline in 59 hours on the dot.

    I don't know how epicmafia does it but I'll make clear some of my interpretations:

    Miller:
    -Knows they're a miller.
    -Flips as town miller.
    -Only difference from a VT is that they cop as "scum" to the cop.

    Cop:
    -Only gets town/scum results.
    -Miller returns "scum".
    -GF returns "town".
    -Hooker returns "scum".
    -BG returns "town".
  15. Yeti

    Yeti

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    that's not a very nice thing to say about fishy
  16. zorbees

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    Houndoomsday I think TIK is referring to lynching the mafia, not inspecting them.

    THE_IRON_KENYAN At 6 men left, we'd no-lynch to still get down to the 2/5 chance the next day. 4 villagers/2 mafia is mylo, not lylo. This is why I said we're deciding whether to no-lynch now or later. I do however, agree with you that we should do it now. If we mislynch a vanilla/miller, then no-lynch the next day, we give the mafia a 2/5 then 2/4 shot of hitting a power role, 1/5 and 1/4 of hitting the cop. If we no-lynch today, they only have a 2/6 or 1/6 shot tonight.

    unvote, vote no-lynch
  17. Daenym

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    It's pretty safe to say that on the off chance the cop hits the hooker, they'll end up trying to claim miller, I guess? Which hardly works itg, since miller is self aware, which I didn't know he was. My understanding of millers was that they weren't informed, but then millers are hardly common here.

    And after playing with numbers last night, even if we lynch correctly after mislynching once, a second mislynch is still a loss. No lynching today gives us a few outcomes that have us getting to D4 LYLO instead of D3.

    Normally I'm no fan of no lynching, but I will say that of the handful of Epic Mafia games I've played, the experienced players in those games (who ended up being village) pushed no lynch in early cycles.

    That said, no point in rushing majority on no lynch.
  18. Yeti

    Yeti

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    I would like to hear from all players on their current feelings regarding a lynch vs a no-lynch for today. My stance remains I require more discussion on the matter to determine if there is a likely target or if it will be safer to NL and hope the cop gets a result. Even so, if the cop hits the miller, the hooker could CC miller since they would provide the same result according to BT's post, but that would be a tough one to determine. That gives us the ability to lynch one and the other is either clean or mafia so I'm not sure if they want to give us one half of their team like that.

    We should also remember the mafia have daytalk so they can communicate strategies to post and plan on how to avoid buddying each other etc.
  19. Houndoomsday

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    i would prefer to lynch d1 because thats what ive seen done in every other noc game, but id gladly defer to more experienced players in this issue
  20. Daenym

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    @hdoom the key bad point of a lynch today is thelow info and liklihood of a mislynch. since we only get 1i can see the logic of a NL unless we have something substantial to go on. which we probably won't.

    the same kind of applies to a miller claim cc. norkally outing a mafia via that would be solid but if we lynch the miller then there is no mislynch chance for godfather. ofc by then we have significantly more info.
  21. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    In my opinion we should always go into the day assuming we make a lynch, just to generate information. If things turn out unclear and no major suspicions arise, then we no lynch, but going into a day from the get go that we want a no lynch will just make this day useless.
  22. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    zorbees said pretty much everything i want to say on this, but ill add even more reasons why we should no lynch today and not use the misslynch today.

    You could make the cop have to out himself, in which case we will never have any chance of getting the best thing this village could get: a mafia report on one of the players. He will just get hooked over and over again. You want to at least give the cop a chance to possibly get that best case scenario mafia report. Lynching TODAY would certainly make cops job easier if we misslynched correctly (got a villager) or got godfather or hooker ( If we get hooker today and cop gets scum tomorrow, its a village clear because the godfather pops up town while the only thing left to pop up scum is the miller, which is town,) but it just wouldnt be worth the risk of making the cop claim and then making him useless for as long as the roleblocker is in the game.

    We have a 2/8 chance to lynch the mafia today, off of nothing but this conversation and whatever conversations happen later in the day.

    Tomorrow, we have a 2/7 chance of hitting mafia, off of the conversations of the day before( this day), the conversations of that day, the possible cop report of mafia on somebody, and the person that died.

    This seems like a pretty easy choice to me, so im gonna go ahead and reaffirm that I vote no lynch

    I know I pretty much said the same things i said in my previous posts with a little bit more information, but based on the posts after mine I feel the need to say these things again
  23. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    Thought I might add:
    http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Meteor
    No Lynch --> No Kill --> You may not No Lynch
    No Kill --> No Lynch --> Mafia must submit a kill target
    (unless draws are your thing)

    Votecount 1.3

    No Lynch (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN zorbees
    Daenym (1): Walrein
    Lightwolf (1): Aura Guardian
    zorbees (1): Houndoomsday
    Yeti (1): Daenym
    Not Voting (2): Yeti LightWolf

    Deadline is at 6:00 PM EST which is in 52 hours and 20 minutes.
  24. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    Ok, this whole "No Lynch" is absolutely HORRIBLE. We need people to react under pressure, which we won't get any other way. And the days are way to short to throw them away on this!

    Unvote, Lynch THE_IRON_KENYAN for starting this no lynch mess way too soon, he may have cost us an entire cycle of debating, very anti-town.

    Zorbees, don't encourage him.
  25. zorbees

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    i'm standing by my opinion

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