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Completely Normal Open Setup 8p NOC - Game Over

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Blue_Tornado, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    This no lynch discussion is for from a mess. For one thing, it did the equivalent of what "people reacting under pressure" would do, which is give us reads. There are multiple to gather these scumtells, nulltells, or towntells in mafia. Pressuring people by voting them is one thing, looking at how people participate in a discussion is another thing, and there are many other ways after that. I have done nothing but help town in my posts, because I pretty much got us out of the random voting stage of this game and figured out the best course of action, which is no lynching, and if somebody comes up with a better argument for actually lynching somebody TODAY, one that is better than mine for not lynching, then im all for it. I have not only made discussion to generate reads from, but i am also introducing new perspectives which the village can analyze from and make an even more informed decision from, causing debates like you said i wasnt in your post. Im not wasting the day in the slightest.

    You know how this is an epicmafia.com setup right? Well, if I were looking to be anti-town and scummy, I wouldnt have even mentioned the possibility of no lynching being the best option, because its more advantageous for the mafia to try to lynch somebody today rather than another day when the village has a good chance of having a lot more to work with. There was, I feel, a strong chance that without my mentioning some of the strategies that have been developed by people playing this game thousands of times, people would have done the standard NOC thing to do and lynch somebody d1, which isnt the best thing we could be doing.

    What I dont like about your post is that you seem to just gloss by everything I just said about why we should no lynch today, without really offering anything more then a sensationalized "KENYAN is anti-town!" with nothing really substantial to back it up, as i have clearly demonstrated in my rebuttal.

    You know, even if we as a village decide that No Lynching is what we want to do, we can still out people we find as scum reads and their scumtells. We dont have to do it right away, but even if we did, wed still have a lot to work with going into tomorrow.

    my vote is still no lynch
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2013
  2. Aura Guardian

    Aura Guardian

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    I'm not saying No Lynch today is bad - given the numbers, I can't dispute it much either way. I'm saying that starting off a No Lynch with THIS MUCH TIME LEFT is bad. You practically handed people a way to not post much other than some way of agreeing to a no lynch, potentially cutting off debate. Yes, it gets reads. BUT, we'd get more and better reads by people voting each other and THEN doing this No Lynch thing.

    Though I suppose in some twisted sense of things, your suggestion did just what I mentioned as better by getting us into this debate.
  3. zorbees

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    the problem with voting each other and then no-lynching is that nobody will take the threat of votes seriously enough to react under pressure because none of the votes really matter if we know they aren't going to stick around.
  4. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    Its probably better to have the momentum on the best possible scenario for town than to wait until the momentum is on "Lets vote somebody out! hue" to do it. Momentum is a terrible thing to be against.

    One benefit to no lynching quickly is to deprive mafia of any power role reads on anybody like cop or doctor.

    I suppose that at a quick glance outting the no lynch d1 optimal option takes a lot of the fear out of posting, and gives people the incentive to not really worry about their standing in the game, thus making them less likely to really post much. That is, if you believe that pressuring people via votes is the only way to scare people into responding and give you reads.

    They are a lot of ways to get people to accumulate posts and get, maybe, more accurate reads on them. In a game where things you said yesterday can get you lynched the next day, the fear is never really gone and the pressure is always there to post and contribute, even if the lynch is decided. There is always pressure; it starts when the game starts, and never really goes away.
  5. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    Im assuming he meant voting like you would normally and then revealing the no lynch strategy first, then pressuring people, then no lynching. Even the first one seems like a risky idea to me.
  6. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    I must agree with AG here, making the day end faster will be only in favour of the mafia and no one else, might as well not vote instead of clearly voting no one.
  7. zorbees

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    not voting is probably worse than voting for no lynch, even if you disagree with no lynch. at least when you vote no lynch you are using your vote to state an opinion on how you feel the day should go. when you don't vote you look extremely non-committal and aren't really contributing to anything.
  8. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    So you say you'd rather commit to ending the day earlier, than not commit to something for a while? OK

    Lynch zorbees
  9. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    on epicmafia.com if it is found in a setup that NL D1 is the standard procedure people just go on with it straight away, and it really has no effect on peoples ability to gain or not gain accurate reads on town or scum, which is why, now that the point of extending the day to get more better reads has been brought up, Im not sure if it will really mean anything in the long run or not.

    I admit that I threw around my No Lynch vote without much care tbh. Knowing how NOC mafias go, its usually a long time until something is decided upon in the votes, leaving plenty of opportunity to gauge people by their posts or lack of them.
  10. Walrein

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    After browsing the thread, my opinion on today's plans:

    No lynching MIGHT be better than mislynching.

    However, I'd rather try to find scum and knock out 50% of our wincon today.

    SO

    I will not vote for a no lynch unless I cannot find a target who I believe to be scum.

    I find it a tad bit suspicious that zorbees and TIK are trying to rush an end to this day. We need to use all the time we have or we won't be finding any scum.

    THE_IRON_KENYAN I have played quite a bit of epicmafia as well, but I feel Smogon NOC has a very different dynamic, even with an identical setup. One reason for this would be the lack of whispering, plus the fact that rather than being in real time we have ample time to think out our posts. The mafia daychat makes a difference as well. Thus, we have to come up with our own optimal strategy rather than copying what's done on epicmafia.

    I'd also like to think that this game's playerbase is more intelligent than the epicmafia community lol
  11. Houndoomsday

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    uh if anyone is saying we should end d1 thats scummy as hell, because more posts=more info

    also if we decide to no lynch d1, it makes it much harder to force anyone to post meaningfully. id say today we play it by ear- if no one seems that scummy, wait, but there is no reason to throw away an in game day of potential pressure just to get more meaningful chances of cop hitting scum
  12. zorbees

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    For the record, it's not like if the majority decides no-lynch is a bad option, I won't help trying to find a good lynch target. I just feel like, based on the even number of players, we're probably going to no-lynch at some point, unless the bg blocks a kill to change it to an odd number of players. It's pretty simple math:

    now: 6 village vs 2 mafia
    after a mislynch: 5 village vs 2 mafia
    after a nightkill: 4 village vs 2 mafia

    At this point it would be MYLO, meaning the optimal strategy would be to no-lynch to maximize the odds of lynching scum. Go from 2/6 to 2/5. Alternatively, if we no-lynch today:

    after a nightkill: 5 village vs 2 mafia
    after a mislynch: 4 village vs 2 mafia
    after a nightkill: 3 village vs 2 mafia

    this is LYLO. Basically its the same point we'd get to after we'd no-lynch at MYLO, but we're using the no-lynch at a different time.

    If we want to actually go for a lynch today, I'm not going to sit out and keep pushing the no-lynch. I will participate. I just feel like the basic math dictates that we're going to probably no-lynch at some point, why not just do it now?

    Some more math:

    Chances of the cop dying by the first night if we mislynch: 1/6 (1 cop / 6 villagers) + 1/5 (if cop isn't mislynched, 1 cop / 5 villagers) = 36.66%
    Chances of the cop dying by the first night if we no-lynch: 0/6 (no lynch) + 1/6 (1 cop / 6 villagers) = 16.66%
    Chances of the cop dying or being hooked by the first night if we mislynch: 1/6 + 1/5 + 1/4 = 61.66%
    Chances of the cop dying or being hooked by the first night if we no-lynch: 0/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 36.66%

    Obviously this is the worst case scenario, but it's usually pretty hard to accurately lynch day 1, at least from my NOC experiences.

    Chances of lynching a scum day 1: 2/8 = 25%
    Chancs of lynching a scum day 2 after a no-lynch: 2/7 = 28.57%

    This does not take into account the fact that the cop is 25% more likely to get a result if we no-lynch today.

    Of course, lynching a mafia d1 would be a great deal, especially if its the hooker, but like I've said, from my NOC experiences, it is usually pretty hard to lynch correctly day 1.

    However, as I've typed up this post, more people have posted against no-lynch. I will Change vote to Lynch Yeti. I am willing to go back to no-lynching but it seems futile at this point. I voted for Yeti mainly as an RVS-type vote, but she's been very non-committal, non-confrontational, and hasn't posted one vote. Seems like she could be trying to sneak under the radar. I also like the fact that putting a second vote on her puts a bit more pressure on her to respond. However, she probably hasn't seen all of the recent posts due to time-zones, so maybe her response will help.
  13. zorbees

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    Chances of the cop dying or being hooked by the first night if we no-lynch: 0/6 + 1/6 + 1/5 = 36.66%

    made a typo in the math, the bold is the correction.
  14. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    Votecount 1.4

    Yeti (2): Daenym zorbees
    zorbees (2): Houndoomsday LightWolf
    THE_IRON_KENYAN (1): Aura Guardian
    No Lynch (1): THE_IRON_KENYAN
    Daenym (1): Walrein

    Not Voting (1): Yeti

    Majority is 5 out of 8.

    Deadline is at 6:00 PM EST which is in 47 hours.
  15. Daenym

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    So in an effort to steer the conversation away from NL and onto lynching, or more specifically future lynches, I want to go back to the Miller. Reading up on the EM wiki, Millers aren't normally aware of their Miller-ness. This gives us a somewhat unique advantage, since BT confirmed the Miller knows he is such.

    So basically is it worth it for the miller to claim?

    Pro: It would effectively remove the ability of the Hooker to claim Miller in the lucky event of the Cop hitting the ONLY scum role that investigates as mafia. If the Miller claims, then the mafia will (probably?) not CC, and if the Cop gets a scum result on anyone else, there's the Hooker. If the Hooker claims Miller now and there's a CC, then we're at a coinflip. Since the Miller has no night action, he can't be bothered by the Hooker, and probably wouldn't be killed either, to just keep that person under suspicion in the event that the Cop does hit the Hooker.

    Con: A Miller claim would mean the mafia has a 2/5 shot of hitting a PR, as opposed to a 2/6, since they know to NOT target the Miller. :/

    Regarding the con, however, I have to honestly wonder if the Cop is really that useful in this setup. He's only able to identify one scum role, and could accidentally "clean" the other. And if he outs before the Hooker is eliminated, then he's pretty much perma-nerfed. And the other PR, the BG, isn't really of any major use until about halfway through the game, and it's more or less a coinflip whether it'll survive that long anyway.

    Who knows, maybe it's a terrible idea to ask someone to out so soon, but just the fact that we've got a somewhat abnormal Miller itg means it's at least worth discussion.
  16. Houndoomsday

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    Chances of eliminating 50% of the mafia if we lynch= 25%
    Chances of eliminating 50% of the mafia if we dont lynch: 0%
    Chances of the cop dying by the first night if we lynch: 1/8 (1 cop / 8 people) + .25*1/6 (if we hit a mafia) + .75 *1/5 (if we hit a villager) - .25*1/5 (if we hit a mafia this is the chance of bg protecting him) - .5*1/3 (if we hit a non-bg non-cop villager) = 10.03%

    i dont have a huge issue with the no lynch arguments and honestly have been persuaded to at least consider it, however just putting up numbers is just like putting up calcs in a viability ranking thread: isolated facts dont do a thing. also i get why you wouldnt assume we correctly lynch, however there is no reason to have a 0% chance whatsoever. in this case i said we had a 1/4 chance- just the mathematical odds. i posted these calcs to be ironic, please dont treat them as real evidence or anything- anyone can set up an equation so it looks good for their side, plus i think i messed up the bg stuff so please dont take them literally, just understand the point im trying to make

    mafia isnt about equations. while its certainly important to keep in mind one of the tradeoffs involved in a lynch (25% chance of hitting a mafia in exchange for roughly a 15-20% chance of getting the cop killed), however mafia is too complicated to just think about one specific thing. there are outside forces and just keeping one tradeoff in mind isnt a smart way to think. plus there are obviously intangibles such as no pressure if we decide to no lynch after 24 hours

    in addition cop doesnt seem to be that great of a role as it is in most other game due to the miller/gf effects on being inspected.

    also could mafia just claim miller or am i missing something?
  17. Aura Guardian

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    If scum result, then 50% chance of that person being scum, check the playstyle and you're possibly home
    If clean result, then 80% chance (or 75%, 66%, or 50%) of that person being clean.

    So, yeah, cop isn't 100%. But he can give us good probabilities eventually.
  18. Daenym

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    This is what bothers me the most about the Cop itg, since having a false-Town result is considerably worse than having a false-Scum result.
  19. Daenym

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    er, my post got all fucked up there. What I wrote was referring to AG's post, about the Cop probabilities. Not sure how the quote got screwy.

    The Hdoom quoting was regarding him asking about the mafia claiming Miller. And only Hooker would do that, since Godfather shows up as Town to the Cop.
  20. Aura Guardian

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    False-village is, indeed, a problem. However, I was not claiming we should use the Cop that way. I was saying we should use it at best as a guideline, keeping the probabilities in mind. And the reason falsr-village is a problem is because of how rare it is, so it's not as much of a problem most of the time... uh, sort of, anyway. But the point is: guideline, not ironclad, and there's nearly no problem.
  21. zorbees

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    I didn't intend to give the village a 0% chance of lynching correctly, so sorry if you misinterpreted. What I was doing was assuming the worst case scenario.

    Anyways, apparently you missed the part of my post that stated that we have a better chance of hitting a mafia tomorrow than today. Either way, we only have 1 mislynch, so I don't see why we wouldn't maximize the odds of hitting scum.

    Daenym: I know NOC isn't like OC where you rely on power roles, but I think any help they can give us will really help. This makes me feel like having the miller out himself isn't that wise. I probably can be convinced otherwise but I don't know, it just doesn't seem intuitive to me.
  22. Houndoomsday

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    yes i know it was worst case scenario, i was giving some more accurate numbers because i felt like using math to back up your claims and fixing the numbers to how you want them necessitated someone calling you out on it. sure, lynching d1 seems like a bad idea when you present the worst case scenario yeah, but pretty much everything does
  23. zorbees

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    Whatever, I don't feel like arguing with you because you keep ignoring the main points I am making and nitpicking the minor shit. You're pretty set in your ways so there's no point anyways.
  24. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    Im having the same problem zorbees is tbh. It seems like you guys really skipped by most of what I had to say about no lynching. Whether you guys like it or not, my math and logic is better than any reads or "pressure" you could ever real generate from voting unless the person is blatantly stupid. It's important, but nothing ive said has hindered or will ever hinder the amount people post, and who gets questioned or interrogated because of what theyve said, this is just self evident. When you have a known setup, your primary work of the day is to decide whether the numbers and the role situation warrant claiming or lynching of anybody. Math and hard facts should always be considered before a read.

    There is no debating what ive said: If we save the misslynch for tomorrow by lynching nobody today, not only does the cop have the ability to possibly gain a scum report on somebody, but we also can use the misslynch to nuke that person for a 50/50 shot at getting maf, which we should do no matter how scummy or towny he or she looks because its 50/50 odds. If we decide to lynch today, we will probably lose the misslynch or even worse force the cop to out, making him effectively useless.

    I'm putting my foot down unless somebody gives me a really solid reason to reconsider besides strong arming me by voting me into to doing something else. Im not taking my vote off of no lynch, primarily because I want to keep reminding people of what obviously seems to be the best strategy. I definitely want the day to go on longer so we get more posts in from people so we can get a better grasp of how they are in this game. Ive never once been against it or rushed towards ending the day quickly.

    Sometimes there is an opposite side to consider, like when I said extending the day could lead to potential cop and doc reads by the mafia. They are worth noting and I stand by saying them 100% but that doesnt mean I want to end the day quickly. Im not actually all that confident the mafia in this game can figure out doc or cop just by how they post, but I thought it was worth noting. It really all depends on how confident you are whether or not you want to extend the first day during a proper no lynch or lynch. If you are pretty confident you can catch the mafia easily, you wont really mind missing 1 days worth of reads and posting. If you are safer, youll want to get people to post a lot more and discuss and react a lot more. Simple as that

    Im not mad, but I want people to see this because its important.

    Village needs to maximize the resources they have, and this is the way to do it. Whether or not the miller should claim today, later, or not at all is another story.
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2013
  25. Aura Guardian

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    Very well, I'm convinced there was no malice in your no lynch thing, even the timing. Unvote.

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