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Completely Normal Open Setup 8p NOC - Game Over

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Blue_Tornado, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. Walrein

    Walrein

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    Here's my problem with the miller claiming: it is literally the easiest role to fakeclaim in the history of mafia.

    "I turned up maf on inspect? Uh... uh... I'm m-m-miller. Yep. That's it."

    Granted, the existence of the godfather makes it so that only the hooker can claim miller, but still, all someone claiming miller does is give them a 50% chance of being mafia.

    THAT BEING SAID

    I do have an idea that would make this work:

    1. Miller claims
    2a. If there is no counterclaim, we assume he's real.
    2b. If there is a counterclaim, we lynch the sketchier one.
    If he flips hooker, he's probably legit, but incase of bussing, cop inspects the other claim. A guilty means he's legit, an innocent means he's godfather.
    If he flips miller, we lynch the other guy, no questions asked.
    If he flips godfather, the other guy's probably legit, but there's no way to tell that the real miller is simply inactive/keeping quiet for some reason.

    Flaws with this plan:
    It could be considered a tad bit all-or-nothing, requiring us to drop everything and test this.
    If both mafians cc miller, things get a lot more complicated (however we've also achieved a 66% chance of hitting scum so lol)
    The cop must be alive and unhooked, and the miller claiming makes it mathematically more probable that he will be hooked or killed.
    Because of the above, we'd have to do it today.

    Basically, this plan is basically guaranteed to kill at least one scum; however, the possibility of at least one mislynch is also high. The question is, are we willing to risk it? I'd like opinions.
  2. zorbees

    zorbees
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    if there is no counterclaim we don't guarantee anything
  3. Walrein

    Walrein

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    lol "basically, this plan is basically"

    i are smrt
  4. Walrein

    Walrein

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    Also, I would hope that the real miller would counterclaim in that situation, as not doing so would be nothing but detrimental IMO. However, I do see where you're coming from.
  5. Yeti

    Yeti

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    hello I have finally woken up. zzzzzz

    regarding if the cop were to get a scum result, the miller should 100% counterclaim if the cop had inspected the hooker. if there is no cc, it means the scum result was likely the true miller and the hooker doesn't want to out himself as a sure lynch target. thus miller please cc in the event this happens. I somewhat dislike how the cop is only good for finding one of the two mafians since the godfather will be ultimately down to our deduction skills but that's what a good NOC is for.

    theorizing on a possible TIK/AG scum team, TIK has been pushing for no lynch but not to end the day while posting big posts. this is a somewhat classic tell of village-imposter, trying to appear he's contributed a lot more than anyone else, then AG jumps on him with a dissenting opinion and he's given the opportunity to post more, then AG changes his mind on TIK and says "yeah that looks good" so now others find him more credible. just a possibility.

    I don't think we have heard much from LightWolf yet, he's posted but not a whole lot, and I would like to see some more from HDD as well.

    re: zorbees and why I haven't voted, I think if you review my NOC history you will see I rarely cast my vote until I have decided upon a target and don't use it to prod activity. billymills was good at switching his vote to startle people but you will find I am more conservative about directing it at anyone and always just call people out for the responses I specifically want. I am just scouting.
  6. zorbees

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    Walrein, I'm not sure what you're getting at. You seem to be addressing "should the miller claim today?". Then when you respond to me, you are basically assuming that the hooker will claim miller, which makes no sense to me. How are you so sure what the hooker will claim? Is this just typical Walrein bad NOC play or a scumtell?
  7. zorbees

    zorbees
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    I'm going to bed now, depending on what time I get up, I might not post until late tomorrow night.
  8. Walrein

    Walrein

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    I'm assuming hooker will be the one to claim miller because the godfather claiming miller would be silly.
  9. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    Yeah lol why would somebody who flips CLEAN claim miller. You dont even have to think about that all that much
  10. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    The real miller should 100% counterclaim whenever someone, from his perspective, fake comes up. Even if he turns out to be the one getting lynched, putting himself or herself out there willingly increases the odds of hitting a mafia to 50/50

    Only if the village one is retarded enough not to counterclaim, for the reasons I just said.

    But if we constantly remind people that they should counterclaim whenever someone claims a role only they can have, Im pretty confident in saying that they will take the advice because of the incredibly easy logic behind it, then we lynch the scummier one, like walrein said.

    In short, if nobody counterclaims a miller after awhile, then he is basically clear and we can use his guaranteed village perspective to have a better chance at getting a correct lynch, because his perspectives will be ones that are from somebody that is 100% trying to get a town win.
  11. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    Votecount 1.5
    Yeti (2): Daenym zorbees
    zorbees (2): Houndoomsday LightWolf
    No Lynch (1): THE_IRON_KENYAN
    Daenym (1): Walrein

    Not Voting (2): Yeti Aura Guardian

    Majority is 5 out of 8.

    Deadline is at 6:00 PM EST which is in 37 hours and 45 minutes.
  12. Daenym

    Daenym

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    The advantage to there being no CC is that it's fairly safe to assume the true Miller was the one who claimed Miller. If Hooker claim Miller, then Miller (should) CC. If Miller claims, Hooker (probably won't) CC and out himself. So this removes the later problem of the Hooker being hit by the cop and saying "omg no I'm miller!" and THEN having the Miller CC (or vice-versa).

    Honestly as far as I can tell, in the event of the Cop hitting "scum" on an inspect, he would just want to out, right? (Hooker being lynched would remove the threat to the Cop anyway) But since there's the chance he hits the Miller and not the Hooker when he's targeting, he could out himself when he unknowingly finds the Miller. Originally I said the key flaw with the Miller outing was that mafia was more likely to hit a PR since Miller would be off the table, but the same applies to the Cop being more likely to hit the Hooker. A non-CC'd Miller claim would mean the Cop can focus on the other 6 people, meaning he's got a marginally better chance to find the Hooker (but the chance of false-Town still stands).
  13. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    I had some very long calculations written up here, but I deleted them for a good reason that I'm not gonna share or it defeats the purpose of not posting them.

    On the miller claim thing I can only say this. I agree 100% that the miller should claim on this very day, my reasons can only be explained after miller claims but before this day ends, thanks.
  14. Yeti

    Yeti

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    still looking for more thoughts from LIGHTWOLF and HOUNDOOMSDAY. who are conveniently voting the same person right now. interesting.

    I don't believe miller should out himself at this time, while the cop might have better aim to find the hooker the mafia also know 3/8 people and have only 5 people to pick from tonight, 4 to get a power role if we lynch someone today who is just a vanilla. the less information they have to work with the better, especially because our cop barely gets reliable results with 2 sneaky roles. if the godfather came up as mafia then I would say the miller should step up but as it is, revealing anything more than we need to at this point is only favoring the mafia due to the cop's weakness. otho the cop is fairly irrelevant so if the miller steps up today it doesn't exactly harm much, the mafia would probably get better results hooking the doctor instead of the cop.

    others should post their input on this matter.
  15. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    If miller steps up now then either we get a very good chance at lynching a mafia or the cop's guilty result will actually mean something. I will say no more on the matter, because anything else would be blatantly helping the mafia.
  16. Daenym

    Daenym

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    So right now LW, myself, and Walrein (I think?) are in favor of Miller outing today. Yeti and zorbees are against it, though neither strongly?

    Aura Guardian Houndoomsday THE_IRON_KENYAN can you three post a thought on the subject? (TIK's post regarding Miller was about a CC, not Miller outing today)
  17. THE_IRON_KENYAN

    THE_IRON_KENYAN 0 vv 0
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    Ive kinda been thinking in my head that it would make sense for the miller to claim today, but id have to think about it more

    Where does it even say miller knows himself?
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2013
  18. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    I said it. I wasn't aware that it was different in epicmafia. I am mulling over what I should do about this problem but it shouldn't stop you from playing normally.
  19. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    DECISION:

    Whoever rolled miller in this setup is now a vanilla townie.
    The new miller will be rng'd between the current vanilla townies and the 'new' vanilla townie (4 in all).
    For obvious reasons the old miller cannot claim "hey i was past miller" because that defeats the purpose.


    Gonna read up on how these roles work in em and inform you of the new mechanics.
  20. Aura Guardian

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    Um... I was totally gonna post something, then I scrolled down and saw our host's decision... I'll try and have more after classes today.
  21. Daenym

    Daenym

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    Uh ok so much for that plan :/
  22. Blue_Tornado

    Blue_Tornado

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    The only update to the mechanics is:
    -the miller doesn't know who they are
    -the miller flips as "town miller" always (usually flips "mafia" on lynch but this has no good solution in this setup, we'll have to deal with this minor town edge)
    -the miller cops as "scum" (stays the same)

    The rest of the roles work the way you think they do. Godfather just cops as town and flips Mafia Godfather and stuff.

    There are 28 hours and 54 minutes remaining.
  23. LightWolf

    LightWolf lightwoof
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    the middle one was intended in the setup, just saying.
  24. Houndoomsday

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    well i was going to share my thoughts but thats out the window now haha

    this makes the cop even weaker imo, and honestly i think that we shouldnt count on getting much useful info from him, at least until one of gf/miller are killed.

    i did want to say that i reskimmed the whole thread and in general the reasons for a no lynch were sound. because of the smaller nature of this setup we have to be a lot more careful with our lynches and we cant afford a d1 mislynch right now. however my main issue is we basically dont gain much pressure on people from this decision because of the non-threatening nature and because of that i think we need to focus on getting people to talk through votes or just calling them out on scummy/weak posts.

    in terms of strange posts i see, TIK stands out a bit because it seemed like he went back on himself about ending the day quickly but thats a really stupid scumtell to make, for such an experienced player and i dont really have an issue with his logic
  25. Walrein

    Walrein

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    did bt just retcon my genius plan

    what a bastard

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