Serious Crimean war (Russia seizing Ukraine). Discussion and thoughts?

[VanguardSoul]

Recently, Ukraine has expressed an interest in associating with the western part of the world. Since then it was offered a spot in the European Council, so the would essentially leave the Soviet Union and become part of Europe. Ukraine, being composed of both Ukrainian and Russian citizens fairly evenly, was faced with a decision. This decision has quickly turned into a dilemma, as Russia has since sent many military units into the Ukraine and seized control.

The European Union is threatening Russia with sanctions, however this would be dangerous for both parties as Russia is Europe's main source of oil, a factor that every country in the world is dependent on, especially an area so large and populated such as all of Europe. It is causing many political complications and no one is quite sure what the outcome will be, simply that Ukraine will most likely be thrown into chaos for at least several years.

The rest of G8 (Group of 8, composed of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, the United States of America, Canada, and Russia) treated this as an act of Russia breaking international law, and has since threatened to revoke it's position in G8 (like a club within the United Nations exclusive to countries with the highest GDP, which essentially means the countries worth the most money). Russia has since offered no response or explanation and INCREASED levels of violence and military control within Ukraine. A vast rebellion has arisen within the country, and it is now on the brink of a second civil war. The second Crimean war.

So far over 200 Ukraine citizens have lost their lives to the Russian military in their efforts to stop any and all protestors. The Crimean Peninsula now belongs to Russia, which Ukraine and the rest of the west are outraged about since they strongly suspect it was due to Crimean politicians' votes being completely false, and forced to vote that Crimea join Russia by the local Russian military. Russia is, of course denying this, as anyone in their right mind would. As of yet there's no proof of anything so it could be completely legitimate, it might not be, who knows. That's what the threads here for, discussion!

Rebels in Ukraine


Some are calling this the beginning of World War III due to the international level of this dispute and the level of severity it has grown to, others are saying it is the start of an international revolution, the list goes on and on. What will happen is no ones guess, no matter how major or minor. But what can be counted on for sure is whether it's one of the aforementioned or not that takes place, the outcome will be very interesting, and there's no doubt that many things will change on the international scale.

What are your thoughts and opinions on this topic? Discussion time!

P.S. If I left anything out or forgot something, my bad. Let me know about it, this is a very large and important topic concerning the entire globe so I won't be surprised if I missed something or made a mistake. Thank you!

 

[Trax]

My thoughts?

My thoughts are that it's fucking sad for the people of the Ukraine that it's looking like a lot of them are going to die in what is essentially a conflict between Russia and Western Europe.

 

[VanguardSoul]

My thoughts?

My thoughts are that it's fucking sad for the people of the Ukraine that it's looking like a lot of them are going to die in what is essentially a conflict between Russia and Western Europe.

Agreed. After WWI Russia lost control of Poland to Europe. It looks like they're extremely desperate to not let history repeat itself in a way.

 

[Vein]

If this goes on, the 2 biggest losers will be Ukraine and Russia basically, but I don't think it will go to something like WWIII. Unless of course China intervenes in this one (an ally of Russia). This is actually the main reason why US is trying to fix this as soon as possible without showing its military muscle. China is very scary these days.

 

[Lee]

Apparently they're holding a referendum on whether Crimea should split from Ukraine. I expect that Crimea will choose to do so (rightly or wrongly, fairly or unfairly) and things will reach a diplomatic conclusion.

 

[Age of Kings]

Obligatory post on hypocritical US foreign policy response. I don't condone Putin's actions in any way but I'm sick and tired of being associated with the world's police, bullies, whatever you want to call it. I like how our media conveniently forgets our equal penchant for foreign "interventions" with NATO being the perfect little lapdogs. In this case, they have a right to be concerned since Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia are both members and former Soviet satellites but I'd rather we not get our feet muddied in another fiasco. Doesn't make Russia right, but I really don't like the feel of this.

Ukraine has been an independent country for only 24 years, it kinda puts into perspective why the Russians are chomping at the bit to get any of their former satellites back. Yanukovych & friends are criminals and should be arrested + tried by some international entity.

 

[Crux]

World War III for sure.

 

[Eiffels]

If this goes on, the 2 biggest losers will be Ukraine and Russia basically, but I don't think it will go to something like WWIII. Unless of course China intervenes in this one (an ally of Russia). This is actually the main reason why US is trying to fix this as soon as possible without showing its military muscle. China is very scary these days.

Personally, I find it highly unlikely that China will choose to intervene. A military intervention on their part would gain them nothing of value. The Russian invasion of Crimea serves exclusively to protect Russian interests, not Chinese.

On a completely unrelated note, it's been quite interesting how the media has portrayed the Russian intervention. So far, most well respected news outlets have confirmed that the Russian soldiers in Crimea are marines or naval infantry. However, I think there's some evidence that Spetsnaz of some type or another were involved in the seizure of the Crimean parliament building.

This is a photograph of the attackers who took the Crimean Parliament building on March 01. First, note the unconventional clothing choices. Two men on the left are wearing blue jeans. The fluorescent armbands look similar to ones used by the Russian FSB's Alfa Group for identification, although they are not identical. None of them appear to be wearing surplus Russian camouflage, which the various self-defense groups have been wearing.

It might seem a bit strange to say these men are Spetsnaz because some of them are in civilian clothing, but Spetsnaz units have a good amount of experience operating in plainclothes. From a strategic perspective, they really have nothing to lose by operating in plainclothes and everything to gain. This allows them to maintain Russia's plausible deniability, which they've rather futilely tried to maintain even now. In Russian-speaking Crimea, the odds of these men getting compromised or betrayed by locals is very low, since pro-Russian sentiment is very strong, and they'd have no language problems to overcome.

Furthermore, it doesn't logically follow that they are pro-Russian locals. They're heavily armed (another photo shows two men in civilian clothes, each carrying a GM94 grenade launcher AND an AK-74M), to the point where they could obviously have gotten real uniforms if they so chose.

Speaking of weapons, those definitely suggest Spetsnaz as well. In the above photo you can see the far-right man carrying a pistol. It doesn't look like any of the common standard-issue military handguns of Russia, nor does it appear to be a Makarov, which a civilian self-defense group would most likely have. Based on the flat slide top and the angular shape, I would say it's probably a Glock, which various Spetsnaz units have been photographed using.

The GM94 grenade launcher in the second photo has an Eotech holographic sight attached. This sight is not Russian military issue, and it is not readily found or widely used in Eastern Europe. It has, however, been used by Russian Spetsnaz and FSB, most likely as a unit-wide purchase or a personal purchase.

Based on all this, I think that the initial stages of the invasion were carried out covertly by plainclothes Spetsnaz, and then Russian naval infantry/marines were brought in to provide support and to act as the public face of the invasion.

Obviously none of this is conclusive evidence or anything, but it does suggest that there is a bit more to this invasion than the news media seems to know.

 

[whistle]

Nice first post.

I read that according to Ukraine's constitution, territorial changes have to be put to a vote to the entire population (the quote was by a Kiev-based official so maybe he interpreted the constitution in a biased manner). I wonder how the rest of Ukraine feels about Crimea leaving, seeing as there doesn't seem to be much tying the two together other than documents (socially Crimea is basically Russian, no?)

Also there's this: www.stratfor.com/situation-report/ukraine-update-kiev-sniper-report

 

[Codraroll]

This probably won't escalate more than it has already done. Crimea has announced a referendum to be held for or against independence later this month. The new central government of Ukraine has stated a referendum date in May, and declared any other referendi before then illegal. Still, with the Russian soldiers everywhere, it's not like they can do anything about it once Crimea declares independence. There might be a few more protests, but I think Russia will remain satisfied with installing their little puppet regime on Crimea, whose next referendum probably will be about joining the Russian Federation. With Crimea a part of Russia, the situation will then calm down, unless the Ukrainian government tries to do anything stupid like taking it back by force. After all, Russia doesn't want the situation to escalate more than necessary. If it does, anti-Russian sentiments will skyrocket all over Europe, which will be very bad for business.

Speaking of Russia, in the short term it will probably lose what little image it has slowly built up since the end of the Cold War. It's obvious to the world what kind of leader Putin has become (as if that wasn't clear already from the constitutional changes he made so he could stay president forever). Their economy will be hit hard by sanctions. And Poland and the Baltic countries will probably spend a little more on defense in the coming years. It might have gained a peninsula, but through extremely shady means and at the price of a good relationship with the West.

The EU will probably be a little more welcoming to Ukraine too in the coming years. Perhaps a few good trading deals will be struck, and money sent over for improvements in infrastructure or something. If the new leaders of Ukraine manage to strike down on corruption, we might see a new Poland situation here. Hopefully, it won't be ignored, and forced to go to Russia for support again. That "walk of shame" would probably deprave Ukraine of any chance to rise economically for several decades.

 

[THE_IRON_...KENYAN?]

This is gonna be a sick Battlefield 5 game

 

[Shinryu]

I don't see WW3 coming out of this, but yeah...US complaining about it is pretty much pot calling the kettle black. I agree with Age of Kings pretty much otherwise. Just let them handle their own problems.

 

[Torty73]

the Crimea is going to be part of Russia, no kidding. like the vote their going to do isn't going to be rigged

 

[UsernameSayWha]

Crimea council voted to be a part of Russia, so this should be over soon with little to nothing happening anywhere to the scale of a world war.

 

[New World Order]

The poll options and OP description look exactly like one made by someone with a complete Western bias, please do yourself a favour and go redo school. I like how you're trying to compare Russia's actions to that of fucking Nazi Germany of places, when this is no worse than what Western democratic nations have been doing in the middle East. Hell at least Russia has the excuse of being there in the interest of ethnic Russians.

As for the actual result, I'm thinking other: another party will intervene to at least tone down the violence, but Russia will not back down and eventually the situation will resolve with Russia setting up a satellite state in Easter Ukraine. There's not really much any countries can do about a military and economic powerhouse like Russia without severely hindering its own prosperity.

My thoughts?

My thoughts are that it's fucking sad for the people of the Ukraine that it's looking like a lot of them are going to die in what is essentially a conflict between Russia and Western Europe.

This, don't listen to the garbage propaganda CNN, Fox, and shit are trying to throw out about how Russia is the sole aggressor. If Western Europe never goads Ukraine, an already independent nation, into trying to further cut ties with Russia, despite it's significant Russian ethnicity, these violent outbreaks never occur.

 

[Killah]

Hell at least Russia has the excuse of being there in the interest of ethnic Russians.

The Sudetenland had the excuse of being full of ethnic Germans! And we all know how that turned out. In this case, Nazi Germany was appeased to stop a literal war; Russia will be appeased to stop an economic one.

 

[phalanx]

Germans Invaded places to regain control of German speaking peoples and old German territories in WW2.

why is this Crimea wanting to be part of Russia suddenly arose once russia invaded it? Russia are sticking thier noses in in formoer countries they owned, they have done this before Georgia as well remember.

 

[New World Order]

The Sudetenland had the excuse of being full of ethnic Germans! And we all know how that turned out. In this case, Nazi Germany was appeased to stop a literal war; Russia will be appeased to stop an economic one.

Germany had a very legitimate reason to take back land from Czechoslovakia, Poland etc, the "Treaty" of Versailles was a screwjob against them. It's the way Hitler handled himself afterwards that was the problem. And besides, you missed my point. NATO screwing around with the Middle East was much much worse than what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, but that's okay becuz democracy.

 

[Vein]

Personally, I find it highly unlikely that China will choose to intervene. A military intervention on their part would gain them nothing of value.

What I'm saying is there won't be any World War III without China's intervention, which we are sure will not happen. However, China is watching US's moves nowadays, and it's not a coincidence that China has strong ties with NoKor, Russia and Iran - 3 of the US's greatest rivals in terms of arms and history. I'm sure those countries are not shy going into war, but I'm hoping there won't be any WWIII. It's also not a coincidence that China is starting to flex it's muscle in Asia (against Japan and India, 2 of the greatest countries in the continent with strong US ties, and against South East - a great strategic area for US).

I know I'm off-topic since we're talking about Crimea, but many guys are associating this with world wars...

 

[VanguardSoul]

The poll options and OP description look exactly like one made by someone with a complete Western bias, please do yourself a favour and go redo school. I like how you're trying to compare Russia's actions to that of fucking Nazi Germany of places, when this is no worse than what Western democratic nations have been doing in the middle East. Hell at least Russia has the excuse of being there in the interest of ethnic Russians.

As for the actual result, I'm thinking other: another party will intervene to at least tone down the violence, but Russia will not back down and eventually the situation will resolve with Russia setting up a satellite state in Easter Ukraine. There's not really much any countries can do about a military and economic powerhouse like Russia without severely hindering its own prosperity.


This, don't listen to the garbage propaganda CNN, Fox, and shit are trying to throw out about how Russia is the sole aggressor. If Western Europe never goads Ukraine, an already independent nation, into trying to further cut ties with Russia, despite it's significant Russian ethnicity, these violent outbreaks never occur.

Dude... They basically invaded a fucking country. I mean if that isn't enough for you I don't know what is, but that makes you one sick son of a bitch. On top of that, if you would actually READ THE THREAD, you'd see none of this is even remotely opinion based, it's all fact and a simple synopsis of what's happened so far. So how about you smarten the fuck up before you make comments like this bullshit right here. Alright bitch? Thanks.

 

[VanguardSoul]

And in my humble opinion, I believe this is extremely serious and Russia has definitely crossed the line and has no excuse for it's actions other than power and money.

 

[Age of Kings]

Dude... They basically invaded a fucking country. I mean if that isn't enough for you I don't know what is, but that makes you one sick son of a bitch. On top of that, if you would actually READ THE THREAD, you'd see none of this is even remotely opinion based, it's all fact and a simple synopsis of what's happened so far. So how about you smarten the fuck up before you make comments like this bullshit right here. Alright bitch? Thanks.

He's calling you out for invoking Godwin's Law and essentially using hyperboles (WWIII to be specific) to paint a poor picture of the events. And he's correct because no one gives a shit that the West, particularly the US, has a long and storied list of foreign military "interventions" and we're really no better than Russia. No one is suggesting that the actions taken are justified, but your analysis isn't unbiased either and certainly shouldn't be compared to Nazi Germany or WWIII when similar things have happened in recent years. And fuck, South Ossetia & Abkhazia were merely 6 years ago so territorial shitmongering isn't new for Russia either although the circumstances were different. I suggest you calm down and refrain from insulting people when your own comprehension is poor.

 

[VanguardSoul]

He's calling you out for invoking Godwin's Law and essentially using hyperboles (WWIII to be specific) to paint a poor picture of the events. And he's correct because no one gives a shit that the West, particularly the US, has a long and storied list of foreign military "interventions" and we're really no better than Russia. No one is suggesting that the actions taken are justified, but your analysis isn't unbiased either and certainly shouldn't be compared to Nazi Germany or WWIII when similar things have happened in recent years. And fuck, South Ossetia & Abkhazia were merely 6 years ago so territorial shitmongering isn't new for Russia either although the circumstances were different. I suggest you calm down and refrain from insulting people when your own comprehension is poor.

Nothing of this scale has happened in recent years, and G7 even said in a speech "they're concerned due to Russia's hostile actions being similar to post (or pre or something... It's like really late when I posted this so yeah sorry I probably sound like nonsense) WWII Nazi Germany". I'm stating the facts, and while that may be your opinion, the reality is is that there are a decent amount of people out there concerned this could instigate what could eventually lead to a war, and considering the countries involved it would likely be a world war.

 

[Eiffels]

This, don't listen to the garbage propaganda CNN, Fox, and shit are trying to throw out about how Russia is the sole aggressor. If Western Europe never goads Ukraine, an already independent nation, into trying to further cut ties with Russia, despite it's significant Russian ethnicity, these violent outbreaks never occur.

While that's technically true, it has very little to do with the morality of this conflict. Just because Western European influence is the reason for Russian intervention, it doesn't justify military interventionism in any way. Their casus belli is complete nonsense, and they're infringing on Ukrainian sovereignty in a big way. Nobody in the international community is fooled by Putin's excuses, but unfortunately the reality of the matter is that Russia can do whatever it wants in Eastern Europe effectively unopposed.

That's not to say that the US or the EU have Ukraine's best interests at heart either, of course. I just don't see Russia's intervention here as justified.

Nothing of this scale has happened in recent years, and G7 even said in a speech "they're concerned due to Russia's hostile actions being similar to post (or pre or something... It's like really late when I posted this so yeah sorry I probably sound like nonsense) WWII Nazi Germany". I'm stating the facts, and while that may be your opinion, the reality is is that there are a decent amount of people out there concerned this could instigate what could eventually lead to a war, and considering the countries involved it would likely be a world war.

Well, there are some similarities to the Russo-Georgian War, actually. It's not entirely the same, in that the Russo-Georgian War was precipitated by Georgia attempting to retake separatist South Ossetia. However, we are seeing the same Russian commitment to maintaining their power in their former satellite states with military force, and we're even seeing them recycle the same argument that they're "protecting ethnic Russians."

These recent Ukrainian developments should not have been too surprising. Not predictable, admittedly, but not a huge shock to those who have been paying attention to Eastern Europe.

 

[Age of Kings]

Nothing of this scale has happened in recent years, and G7 even said in a speech "they're concerned due to Russia's hostile actions being similar to post (or pre or something... It's like really late when I posted this so yeah sorry I probably sound like nonsense) WWII Nazi Germany". I'm stating the facts, and while that may be your opinion, the reality is is that there are a decent amount of people out there concerned this could instigate what could eventually lead to a war, and considering the countries involved it would likely be a world war.

I'm concerned about your ability to maintain this kind of discussion because you not only made childish insults based on perceived opinion in a "serious" discussion thread, but you called what you're posting objective, let alone your comparisons to Nazi Germany or your contention that it would result in a world war. The only fact of the matter is that Russia sent troops into Ukraine; everything else is up to interpretation. I made references to similar things (read: not same) that have happened in the same region with more relevant context and nothing you contended came of them. You should reconsider going back to r/politics (or seeing from your profile, your high school debate team).