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Diversity, Moves, Movesets, EVs, Natures and Teammates Feb 2009 stats (sick X-Act)

Discussion in 'Pokémetrics' started by X-Act, Mar 4, 2009.

  1. Flashstorm1

    Flashstorm1
    is a Tiering Contributor Alumnus

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    Thanks a lot for posting these resources, X-Act. I hope you get better!

    Additional Edit:

    I find the Suspect stats to be a bit interesting, although they were highly predictable. It will be difficult to make an unbiased vote on the Suspect voting since Scizor, being the #2 used Pokémon on the ladder, with Pursuit being in its moveset almost all of the time, prevents Latios from sweeping through a little team with little to no difficulty. Of course, this is simply my view at the moment, since I have enough experience on the Suspect ladder to know this is the truth.
  2. X-Act

    X-Act np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
    is a Site Staff Alumnusis a Programmer Alumnusis a Smogon IRC SOp Alumnusis a Researcher Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis an Administrator Alumnus

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    Actually, the first way you calculated it is the correct way.

    In general, suppose a move has probability p of being in a moveset. Then the probability of it not being in a moveset is 1-p. The probability that 6 movesets don't have the move is thus (1-p)^6. And hence the probability that the move is in at least 1 out of the 6 movesets (i.e. in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the 6 movesets) is 1 - (1-p)^6; this corresponds exactly with your first method.

    If you, however, want the probability that exactly one out of the six movesets has the move, the probability would be 6p(1-p)^5. This is always smaller than the previous calculation because the other one includes also the cases when 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the movesets have the move.

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