Duo Destruction XY

[Goldland]

Ok i think i got one now:
Wooper @ Eviolite
Ability: Water Absorb
Level: 5
EVs: 236 Def / 156 SpA / 76 SpDef
Modest Nature
- Infestation
- Acid Spray
- Surf
- Recover


Koffing Calculations:
0 SpA Koffing Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 76 SpD Eviolite Wooper: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
156+ SpA Wooper Surf vs. -6 36 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Koffing: 28-34 (133.3 - 161.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Lickitung Calculations:
0 Atk Lickitung Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 236 Def Eviolite Wooper: 5-6 (22.7 - 27.2%) -- 2.2% chance to 4HKO
156+ SpA Wooper Surf vs. -6 196 HP / 236+ SpD Eviolite Lickitung: 19-24 (67.8 - 85.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Basically, Wooper gets in and does Recover, then keep infestation up and acid spray the opponent, ending with a 1 or 2hko at -6 spdef.
Even in the worst case scenario would be wooper switching on will-o-wisp, and deal with a possible 3HKO from lickitung, which isn't enough outdamage recover.

 

[Lord Alphose]

Ok i think i got one now:
Wooper @ Eviolite
Ability: Water Absorb
Level: 5
EVs: 236 Def / 156 SpA / 76 SpDef
Modest Nature
- Infestation
- Acid Spray
- Surf
- Recover


Koffing Calculations:
0 SpA Koffing Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 76 SpD Eviolite Wooper: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
156+ SpA Wooper Surf vs. -6 36 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Koffing: 28-34 (133.3 - 161.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Lickitung Calculations:
0 Atk Lickitung Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 236 Def Eviolite Wooper: 5-6 (22.7 - 27.2%) -- 2.2% chance to 4HKO
156+ SpA Wooper Surf vs. -6 196 HP / 236+ SpD Eviolite Lickitung: 19-24 (67.8 - 85.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Basically, Wooper gets in and does Recover, then keep infestation up and acid spray the opponent, ending with a 1 or 2hko at -6 spdef.
Even in the worst case scenario would be wooper switching on will-o-wisp, and deal with a possible 4HKO from lickitung, which isn't enough outdamage recover.

Why are they at -6 SpD?

Edit: Clearly, I have no idea what I'm talking about, as Levi and I tested this and Wooper solidly won both times. I have hereby quit Pokemon, because fuck this all.

 

[Aaron's Aron]

My proposition to deal with this core, would be a somekind of different Abra set, as a wall breaker.

Abra @ Expert Belt
Ability: Magic Guard
Level: 5
EVs: 236 Def / 236 SpA
Bold Nature
- Psychic
- Counter
- Taunt
- Encore

236 SpA Expert Belt Abra Psychic vs. 36 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Koffing: 22-29 (104.7 - 138%) -- guaranteed OHKO -> nothing much to say about koffing other than that he has no chance of surviving expert belt Abra.

0 Atk Lickitung Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 36 HP / 236+ Def Abra: 14-18 (73.6 - 94.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
-> Against Lickitung, i choose bold nature abra with full evs in order to survive the Knock Off and Counter at first turn, dealing 28-36 damage to Lickitung, which is the same as saying that he gets 1HKO.
If Lickitung doesn't Knock off at first turn, he'll be Encored+taunted and struggle + psychic to death.

This does not really work. If Abra switches into Koffing's Fire Blast then it can no longer take Lickitung's Knock Off. If it switches into Lickitung's Knock Off then it can't take another for Counter.

 

[GlassGlaceon]

Before I get to scoring, these are very important, so listen.

• To prevent further clogging up the thread and any confusion about a pokemon you might be using, if you ever need to change a pokemon, just go back to your initial post and edit out the old in the new pokemon, don't make a whole 'nother post for another mon.
• We are cutting reserving mons from this project, you will need to write-up the mon when you can fully.
• please use sprites or models of the pokemon you're using. It makes it easier to see for people browsing for available mons

Goldland's Wooper

beats the core but isn't really viable otherwise at all :/. 1 point

sparktrain's Foongus+Seel

lol 1 point

Alphose_Eric's Scraggy

Actually not a bad or farfetched set, usable outside of just this situation with some solid logic to back it up. 2 points

Flamer's Timburr

http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139721039 disproven in testing 0 Points

Aaron's Aron's Omanyte

http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139722961 and disproven in thread 0 points

Corporal Levi's Litleo

sorry fren :[ only way this has a chance of winning is dark pulse flinches, double switching between koffing and licki can also help with the whole PP Stalling deal - and an unholy long replay as proof http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139731708 0 points

TCR's Houndour

This looks like a fantastic stallbreaker, being able to force many switches and get easy setups and also masterfully beats this core. Good thinking :) 2 Points

apt-get's Growlithe

A solid, semi-standard, viable answer. wow 2 points

fitzy72's Natu

cool set, good hard check to foongus, keeps most slower phys attackers at bay with featherdance, potentially p good 1 point

Rowan's Bronzor

cute user brings a nice set for countering this duo but relatively useless everywhere else. n_n 1 point

Amp Pharaohs's Vullaby

another nice stallbreaker set that works, with solid reasoning to back it up. 2 points

Goddess Briyella's Ponyta

Good reasoning, nice set that works p similar to growlithe and is viable at the same time 2 points

Punchshroom's Larvesta

same as ponyta and growlithe, burning essentially guarantees you a win 2 points

Rocketpro8717's Litwick

bad set and disproven by the thread already by not being able to switch into licki 0 points

kingmidas's Shellos

I forgot to save the replay to this battle but with passive burn damage putting immense pressure on recovery for shellos, it's very easy to stall out with wish+protect on lickilicky and with pain split and repeated clear smogs on koffing, in the end shellos ended up losing, my sincerest apologies for the inconvenience 0 points

Max Carvalho's Misdreavus+Drilbur

misdreavus ends up setting up on koffing and forcing the switch into licki. when missy is foddered, drilbur sweeps this core with an SD 1 point

Ecna's Cranidos

I can see a set like this dismantling bulkier/stall teams, although it's easily revenged by more offensive teams in this meta 1 point

in rememberance of iss, I'll be giving out some bonus points for this round!

Counter Disprover (participated actively in shutting down many false counters) - Rowan (+1)
Hipster Hater (used a standard set to beat the core) - Punchshroom (+1)

big shoutout to queenlucy for helping me test
Scoreboard and new changes will be implemented in OP shortly

Round 2's core:

Abra @ Life Orb
Ability: Magic Guard
Level: 5
EVs: 240 SpA / 200 Spe
Timid Nature
- Psychic
- Substitute
- Hidden Power [Fighting]
- Shadow Ball

Mienfoo @ Eviolite
Ability: Regenerator
Level: 5
EVs: 156 HP / 116 Def / 196 SpD
Careful Nature
- Knock Off
- Drain Punch
- Fake Out
- U-turn

Good luck!

 

[doomsday doink]

Larvesta @ Eviolite
Ability: Flame Body
Level: 5
EVs: 76 Def / 196 SpA / 236 SpD
Modest Nature
- Bug Buzz
- Fire Blast
- Morning Sun
- Calm Mind

Calm Mind Larvesta can deal with the core, specifically Mienfoo. Switch Larvesta into Mienfoo (hopefully burning it with Flame Body) and proceed to set up a Calm Mind as they switch. At +1 SpDef, Larvesta can live a Psychic and OHKO with Bug Buzz, or you can set up another Calm Mind, heal off the damage with Morning Sun and then hit through the Sub with Bug Buzz.

 

[macle]

max hp / max spd spritzee gg

 

[OP]

Misdreavus @ Eviolite
Ability: Levitate
Level: 5
EVs: 116 HP / 196 Atk / 196 Def
Lax Nature
- Will-O-Wisp
- Hex
- Shadow Sneak
- Filler

Worst case scenario #1: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139765527

Turn 1: Missy switches into Mienfoo's Knock Off and is left with 14 hp.
0 Atk Mienfoo Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 116 HP / 196+ Def Eviolite Misdreavus: 10-12 (41.6 - 50%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO

Turn 2: Missy outspeeds and burns Mienfoo and then then is hit by another Knock Off leaving it with 9 hp and mienfoo with 21.
0 Atk burned Mienfoo Knock Off vs. 116 HP / 196+ Def Misdreavus: 5-6 (20.8 - 25%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO

Turn 3: Missy starts firing off powerful hexes, capable of 2HKOing, and taking only 5 damage from knock off.
0 SpA Misdreavus Hex (130 BP) vs. 156 HP / 196+ SpD Eviolite Mienfoo: 10-13 (43.4 - 56.5%) -- 93.8% chance to 2HKO after burn damage

Turn 4: Missy kills Mienfoo and it left with 4 hp.

Turn 5: Missy uses Shadow Sneak to OHKO Abra.
196 Atk Misdreavus Shadow Sneak vs. 76 HP / 0 Def Abra: 18-24 (90 - 120%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

Worst Case Scenario #2:

Turn 1: Missy switches into Abra's Shadow Ball and is left with 6 hp.
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Shadow Ball vs. 116 HP / 0- SpD Eviolite Misdreavus: 16-21 (66.6 - 87.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Turn 2: OHKOs Abra with Shadow Sneak

Turn 3: Missy burns mienfoo and is left with 1 HP after a knock off

Turn 4: Missy Painsplits with the 21 HP Mienfoo leaving it with 6 HP after a knock off and mienfoo with 9 after burn damage.

Turn 5: Missy uses Hex for the win

In either scenario, if Mienfoo tries to abuse regenerator, you can just painsplit and still win.

 

[mad0ka]

Champion Fizz , Larvesta cannot switch into Abra at all:

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. 0 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Larvesta: 12-16 (54.5 - 72.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Thus, Larvesta is a check to this core, not a counter, due to being unable to safely switch into Abra.

 

[Corporal Levi]

Why is mienfoo 23/13/15 instead of 23/14/14
Vullaby @ Eviolite
Ability: Weak Armor
Level: 5
EVs: 236 Atk / 156 SpD / 116 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Knock Off
- Brave Bird
- Roost
- Heat Wave
This set outspeeds Mienfoo and OHKOs the 23/13 variant with Brave Bird, and avoids the 2HKO from LO Abra's HP Fighting, since it doesn't have Dazzling Gleam, easily OHKOing Abra with Knock Off. If Mienfoo tries to Fake Out spam, then Weak Armor activates, and Vullaby is able to entirely avoid the attack from Abra.

236+ Atk Vullaby Brave Bird vs. 156 HP / 116 Def Eviolite Mienfoo: 24-30 (104.3 - 130.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Hidden Power Fighting vs. 0 HP / 156 SpD Eviolite Vullaby: 6-8 (26 - 34.7%) -- 0% chance to 3HKO
236+ Atk Vullaby Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abra: 42-50 (221 - 263.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Vullaby: 3-4 (13 - 17.3%) -- possible 6HKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Fake Out vs. -1 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Vullaby: 4-5 (17.3 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO

 

[fitzy72]

reserving mantyke

Also as a question about this thread what is the consensus about LC rolls like

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +2 252 HP / 252+ SpD Eviolite Mantyke: 5-8 (20.8 - 33.3%) -- 0% chance to 3HKO
(5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 8)

can we ignore the 8 or is it assumed that will happen?

 

[Goldland]

Misdreavus @ Eviolite
Ability: Levitate
Level: 5
EVs: 116 HP / 196 Atk / 196 Def
Lax Nature
- Will-O-Wisp
- Hex
- Shadow Sneak
- Filler

Worst case scenario #1: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139772267

Turn 1: Missy switches into Mienfoo's Knock Off and is left with 14 hp.
0 Atk Mienfoo Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 116 HP / 196+ Def Eviolite Misdreavus: 10-12 (41.6 - 50%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO

Turn 2: Missy outspeeds and burns Mienfoo and then then is hit by another Knock Off leaving it with 9 hp and mienfoo with 21.
0 Atk burned Mienfoo Knock Off vs. 116 HP / 196+ Def Misdreavus: 5-6 (20.8 - 25%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO

Turn 3: Missy starts firing off powerful hexes, capable of 2HKOing, and taking only 5 damage from knock off.
0 SpA Misdreavus Hex (130 BP) vs. 156 HP / 196+ SpD Eviolite Mienfoo: 10-13 (43.4 - 56.5%) -- 93.8% chance to 2HKO after burn damage

Turn 4: Missy kills Mienfoo and it left with 4 hp.

Turn 5: Missy uses Shadow Sneak to OHKO Abra.
196 Atk Misdreavus Shadow Sneak vs. 76 HP / 0 Def Abra: 18-24 (90 - 120%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

Worst Case Scenario #2:

Turn 1: Missy switches into Abra's Shadow Ball and is left with 6 hp.
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Shadow Ball vs. 116 HP / 0- SpD Eviolite Misdreavus: 16-21 (66.6 - 87.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Turn 2: OHKOs Abra with Shadow Sneak

Turn 3: Missy burns mienfoo and is left with 1 HP after a knock off

Turn 4: Missy Painsplits with the 21 HP Mienfoo leaving it with 6 HP after a knock off and mienfoo with 9 after burn damage.

Turn 5: Missy uses Hex for the win

In either scenario, if Mienfoo tries to abuse regenerator, you can just painsplit and still win.

I don't think your case scenarios are correct. You need to Burn Mienfoo on his next attack and be successful, while he can stall you by switching to Abra on w-o-w and switching back to mienfoo on shadow sneak, like forever. So this will be a 50/50 scenario where you'll be relying on luck on his switches/attacks and yours, and nothing more.

Even if they don't switch, there's some probability that things go wrong.

on #1 :
Turn 1: 15/16 chance that knock off does non crit damage.
Turn 2: This is a 50/50 situation, and on a normal game, it's not like you are going to let mienfoo stay on misdreavus on a burn, when you have a abra with magic guard. But ok, lets say opponent feared shadow ball and kept mienfoo here. Either way it's already a 15% chance to miss will-o-wisp, so 85% x 15/16 from non crit damage again.
Turn 3: Missy does 1 hex leaving mienfoo with 8-11 hp. Mienfoo knocks-off and takes missy down to 4 hp and burn damages mienfo down to 6-9 hp with the most probability of being 8hp. Ok. Lets consider the 15/16 probability from non crit damage from knock off .


On 4 turns we have (15/16)^3 x 0,85 = 70% chance to succeed. What this means is that there is a real good chance some of the RNG won't go as expected and might easily have a critical impact .

scenario#2 :
Turn 1: Shadow Ball hits and leaves dreavus with 3-8 hp, specifically 3/16 chance to be with 8 hp, 12/16 chance to be with 6 and 1/16 chance to be with 3 hp. If it crits, you are dead.
Turn 3: Mienfoo hits with a 15/16 probability of hiting 5 damage and 1/16 probability of hitting 6 damage. Dreavus has 85% chance to be successful with will o wisp, if he misses , he dies.
So chance to be successful in scenario #2 would be: (3/16 x (15/16)^2 + 12/16 x (15/16)^4) x 85% = 63,25% chance

I believe either 70% chance or 63,25% chance is not a very reliable counter if it's fragile enough to die from simple rolls or crit.

But anyway, this is just taking in account not switching. Because if the opponent keeps switching it'll become pretty much a 50/50 situation where you'll rely on simple luck on opponent misprediction.

P.S. : damn, spent so much time calculating this that corporal levi stole my vullaby i wanted to post :< xD

 

[mad0ka]

Shellos @ Eviolite
Ability: Sticky Hold
Level: 5
EVs: 228 HP / 52 Def / 180 SpD / 48 Spe
Calm Nature
- Stockpile
- Scald
- Earth Power / Toxic
- Recover


Basically this set aims to set up Stockpile and wall/sweep. Shellos easily sets up on MienLAME, as shown below:

236 Atk Mienfoo Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 228 HP / 52 Def Eviolite Shellos: 7-9 (25.9 - 33.3%) -- 0% chance to 3HKO
(7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9)
236 Atk Mienfoo U-turn vs. 228 HP / 52 Def Eviolite Shellos: 5-7 (18.5 - 25.9%) -- 0.1% chance to 4HKO
(5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7)
236 Atk Mienfoo Drain Punch vs. 228 HP / 52 Def Eviolite Shellos: 9-12 (33.3 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12)
236 Atk Mienfoo Fake Out vs. 228 HP / 52 Def Eviolite Shellos: 4-5 (14.8 - 18.5%) -- possible 6HKO
(4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5)

So, the trouble arises with Abra. However, even this little pile of goop holds its own against that thot:

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. 252 HP / 184+ SpD Eviolite Shellos: 12-16 (44.4 - 59.2%) -- 12.1% chance to 2HKO <-- (do 1/16 rolls count?)
(12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 16)

Shellos is able to switch in to Abra's Psychic without fear of a 2HKO (barring incredible luck with rolls), and recover for 2-3 turns until it's safe to set up a stockpile. From thereon out you keep recovering/stockpiling until you're at +3, where you then may finally drag the thot attack Abra, always 3HKOing it (sometimes a 2HKO if you're lucky). Once Abra is gone, Mienfoo is easy af to take down.

Also, a replay showing its viability as a counter to the core: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/lc-139837357

=========================

Goldland , I would assume hax to not be taken into consideration.

 

[Lord Alphose]

Spritzee @ Eviolite
Ability: Aroma Veil
Level: 5
EVs: 212 HP / 36 Def / 12 SpA / 236 SpD / 12 Spe
Calm Nature
- Wish
- Protect
- Moonblast
- Calm Mind

Situation 1 Calcs

+1 12 SpA Spritzee Moonblast vs. 156 HP / 196 SpD Eviolite Mienfoo: 18-24 (78.2 - 104.3%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Knock Off vs. 212 HP / 36 Def Spritzee: 3-4 (11.1 - 14.8%) -- possible 7HKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Drain Punch vs. 212 HP / 36 Def Spritzee: 4-6 (14.8 - 22.2%) -- possible 5HKO

+1 12 SpA Spritzee Moonblast vs. 76 HP / 0 SpD Abra: 16-21 (80 - 105%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236+ SpD Spritzee: 9-13 (33.3 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
You'll see the relevance of these in a second.

Situation 1

If Mienfoo is the Pokemon out, then the worst thing that Spritzee could switch into would be a Knock Off. By removing Spritzee's Eviolite, it seriously destroys Spritzee's defenses and deals a max of 4 damage, leaving Spritzee at 24. However, Mienfoo's moves from that point on do next to negligible damage 3-4 damage max. A stupid player will remain in, at which point you Calm Mind until you're satisfied and Moonblast the shit out of everything. A smart player will realize that Abra can deal more damage. Mienfoo switches out to Abra with U-turn, dealing a max of 3 damage, leaving Spritzee at 21. On the switch, you use Calm Mind. Next turn, Abra cleanly outspeeds and uses Psychic, dealing a max of 9 damage, taking Spritzee to 12. What do you do? Use Wish. Next turn, there are two smart things Abra could do. Use Substitute or Psychic again. Either way, you use Moonblast. Psychic won't deal enough damage to KO, while Substitute will just waste Abra's turn, as Wish will give you 13 HP. If Abra used Substitute, you will return to full health and remain boosted with Calm Mind. You then Moonblast Abra a few times, Wishing before taking the last shot. Mienfoo will be much easier to take down, as it can't deal close to enough damage to take you out.

tl;dr-Spritzee wins

Situation 2 Calcs

236 SpA Abra Psychic vs. 212 HP / 236+ SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 7-10 (25.9 - 37%) -- 82.5% chance to 3HKO
This situation is much easier to deal with.

Situation 2

Switch in on Abra's Psychic(Worst case Scenario) and take 10 damage, leaving you at 17. Wish, while taking another Psychic, bringing you to 7. Protect, recovering back to 20. Next turn, use Calm Mind. You will be outsped, so you'll take a Psychic without the Special Defense boost. You'll end up at 10. Use Wish. A max roll Psychic will only deal 7 damage now, so you end up at 3 HP. Protect, recovering back to 16. Repeat the process until you can survive Abra with little problem, then proceed to do awesome things. Meinfoo will be easy, just remember to Protect his Fake Out so that you don't have to deal with that crap.

tl;dr-Spritzee wins

tl;dr-You da winner, man.

 

[Goldland]

+1 12 SpA Spritzee Moonblast vs. 156 HP / 196 SpD Eviolite Mienfoo: 18-24 (78.2 - 104.3%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Knock Off vs. 212 HP / 36 Def Spritzee: 3-4 (11.1 - 14.8%) -- possible 7HKO
0 Atk Mienfoo Drain Punch vs. 212 HP / 36 Def Spritzee: 4-6 (14.8 - 22.2%) -- possible 5HKO

+1 12 SpA Spritzee Moonblast vs. 76 HP / 0 SpD Abra: 16-21 (80 - 105%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236+ SpD Spritzee: 9-13 (33.3 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
You'll see the relevance of these in a second.

If Mienfoo is the Pokemon out, then the worst thing that Spritzee could switch into would be a Knock Off. By removing Spritzee's Eviolite, it seriously destroys Spritzee's defenses and deals a max of 4 damage, leaving Spritzee at 24. However, Mienfoo's moves from that point on do next to negligible damage 3-4 damage max. A stupid player will remain in, at which point you Calm Mind until you're satisfied and Moonblast the shit out of everything. A smart player will realize that Abra can deal more damage. Mienfoo switches out to Abra with U-turn, dealing a max of 3 damage, leaving Spritzee at 21. On the switch, you use Calm Mind. Next turn, Abra cleanly outspeeds and uses Psychic, dealing a max of 9 damage, taking Spritzee to 12. What do you do? Use Wish. Next turn, there are two smart things Abra could do. Use Substitute or Psychic again. Either way, you use Moonblast. Psychic won't deal enough damage to KO, while Substitute will just waste Abra's turn, as Wish will give you 13 HP. If Abra used Substitute, you will return to full health and remain boosted with Calm Mind. You then Moonblast Abra a few times, Wishing before taking the last shot. Mienfoo will be much easier to take down, as it can't deal close to enough damage to take you out.

Isn't the bold part incorrect? From what i see in calculator these are the rolls -> (9, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13) which means a 12 is pretty much expected, taking spritzee down to 9 HP. Next turn Abra would KO Spritzee. There's actually just 6,3% chance spritzee takes just 9 damage from psychic, and if we account with the possible SpDef -1, pretty much becomes really hard for spritzee.
I know this because i use spritzee in a lot of my teams, and i can tell she's definetly not the best check for abra, much lesser if she's without eviolite.



P.S.: I just noticed something. Maybe all these calculations are wrong for the mere fact that Abra running HP Fighting and with that mistaken EV distribution, he just reaches 18 speed and 19 SpA

 

[sparktrain]

GlassGlaceon you might want to change the EV spread on abra so it hits 19 speed / 20 SpA (hp fighting IVs lowered it)

 

[GlassGlaceon]

GlassGlaceon you might want to change the EV spread on abra so it hits 19 speed / 20 SpA (hp fighting IVs lowered it)

Thank you for catching this, I'll change this as soon as possible. Sorry for the inconvenience.

 

[OP]

I don't think your case scenarios are correct. You need to Burn Mienfoo on his next attack and be successful, while he can stall you by switching to Abra on w-o-w and switching back to mienfoo on shadow sneak, like forever. So this will be a 50/50 scenario where you'll be relying on luck on his switches/attacks and yours, and nothing more.

Even if they don't switch, there's some probability that things go wrong.

on #1 :
Turn 1: 15/16 chance that knock off does non crit damage.
Turn 2: This is a 50/50 situation, and on a normal game, it's not like you are going to let mienfoo stay on misdreavus on a burn, when you have a abra with magic guard. But ok, lets say opponent feared shadow ball and kept mienfoo here. Either way it's already a 15% chance to miss will-o-wisp, so 85% x 15/16 from non crit damage again.
Turn 3: Missy does 1 hex leaving mienfoo with 8-11 hp. Mienfoo knocks-off and takes missy down to 4 hp and burn damages mienfo down to 6-9 hp with the most probability of being 8hp. Ok. Lets consider the 15/16 probability from non crit damage from knock off .


On 4 turns we have (15/16)^3 x 0,85 = 70% chance to succeed. What this means is that there is a real good chance some of the RNG won't go as expected and might easily have a critical impact .

scenario#2 :
Turn 1: Shadow Ball hits and leaves dreavus with 3-8 hp, specifically 3/16 chance to be with 8 hp, 12/16 chance to be with 6 and 1/16 chance to be with 3 hp. If it crits, you are dead.
Turn 3: Mienfoo hits with a 15/16 probability of hiting 5 damage and 1/16 probability of hitting 6 damage. Dreavus has 85% chance to be successful with will o wisp, if he misses , he dies.
So chance to be successful in scenario #2 would be: (3/16 x (15/16)^2 + 12/16 x (15/16)^4) x 85% = 63,25% chance

I believe either 70% chance or 63,25% chance is not a very reliable counter if it's fragile enough to die from simple rolls or crit.

But anyway, this is just taking in account not switching. Because if the opponent keeps switching it'll become pretty much a 50/50 situation where you'll rely on simple luck on opponent misprediction.

P.S. : damn, spent so much time calculating this that corporal levi stole my vullaby i wanted to post :< xD

First of all, I don't think hax is to be taken into consideration, otherwise there would never be a single viable thing coming out of this thread. Secondly Will-O-Wisp and Shadow Sneak have 72 PP together so while the opponent could technically just switch between the two for a very long time, there is a extremely large room for error, and if the opponent makes one mistake they lose.

 

[Goldland]

First of all, I don't think hax is to be taken into consideration, otherwise there would never be a single viable thing coming out of this thread. Secondly Will-O-Wisp and Shadow Sneak have 72 PP together so while the opponent could technically just switch between the two for a very long time, there is a extremely large room for error, and if the opponent makes one mistake they lose.

Well, basically hax must be somewhat taken into account when it reaches numbers above 30% to happen imo, it becomes too relevant when you are always taking into account not missing, not criting and the right ammounts of damage from RNG. When you have 63,25% chance to succeed, you pretty much have 36,75% chance for hax to happen. When in your conclusion you say for sure that you'll stay at 1HP, is just a critical moment where any little 1 damage from previous rolls would be extremelly relevant, you basically are not with 1 Hp at more than 30% of the times.

About the room of error for your opponent, the same applys to you. If you mispredict that abra will switch but he stays and you try to W-O-W predicting a switch, you pretty much fall apart, and the same would happen if you try to shadow sneak on mienfoo while mispredicting a switch on Abra.

 

[Lord Alphose]

Isn't the bold part incorrect? From what i see in calculator these are the rolls -> (9, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13) which means a 12 is pretty much expected, taking spritzee down to 9 HP. Next turn Abra would KO Spritzee. There's actually just 6,3% chance spritzee takes just 9 damage from psychic, and if we account with the possible SpDef -1, pretty much becomes really hard for spritzee.
I know this because i use spritzee in a lot of my teams, and i can tell she's definetly not the best check for abra, much lesser if she's without eviolite.



P.S.: I just noticed something. Maybe all these calculations are wrong for the mere fact that Abra running HP Fighting and with that mistaken EV distribution, he just reaches 18 speed and 19 SpA

No, I did my calcs correctly. My guess is that you missed the +1 for Calm Mind.

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 9-12 (33.3 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 12)

 

[fitzy72]

Situation 2 Calcs

236 SpA Abra Psychic vs. 212 HP / 236+ SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 7-10 (25.9 - 37%) -- 82.5% chance to 3HKO
This situation is much easier to deal with.

Situation 2

Switch in on Abra's Psychic(Worst case Scenario) and take 10 damage, leaving you at 17. Wish, while taking another Psychic, bringing you to 7. Protect, recovering back to 20. Next turn, use Calm Mind. You will be outsped, so you'll take a Psychic without the Special Defense boost. You'll end up at 10. Use Wish. A max roll Psychic will only deal 7 damage now, so you end up at 3 HP. Protect, recovering back to 16. Repeat the process until you can survive Abra with little problem, then proceed to do awesome things. Meinfoo will be easy, just remember to Protect his Fake Out so that you don't have to deal with that crap.

tl;dr-Spritzee wins

tl;dr-You da winner, man.

Sorry but
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. 212 HP / 236+ SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 9-13 (33.3 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(9, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13)

Chances are there is going to be a drop/crit to just beat you with abra unless they hit min rolls.

 

[Lord Alphose]

No, I did my calcs correctly. My guess is that you missed the +1 for Calm Mind.

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 9-12 (33.3 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 12)

Calm Mind boost. If we're considering crits and off-chance hits as a regular thing, then legit all these counter are actually fodder.

 

[OP]

Chances are there is going to be a drop/crit to just beat you with abra unless they hit min rolls.

Well, basically hax must be somewhat taken into account when it reaches numbers above 30% to happen imo, it becomes too relevant when you are always taking into account not missing, not criting and the right ammounts of damage from RNG. When you have 63,25% chance to succeed, you pretty much have 36,75% chance for hax to happen. When in your conclusion you say for sure that you'll stay at 1HP, is just a critical moment where any little 1 damage from previous rolls would be extremelly relevant, you basically are not with 1 Hp at more than 30% of the times.

GlassGlaceon are we to be taking hax into account? If we are assuming the core will always get a high roll or a crit at some point, there will literally be no counters and absolutely nothing near viable would come out of this thread.

 

[fitzy72]

Calm Mind boost. If we're considering crits and off-chance hits as a regular thing, then legit all these counter are actually fodder.

But if you switch into a Psychic then another Psychic while you Calm mind you lose. If you switch into Psychic you simply have to start wish protecting immediately while Abra keeps getting more Psychic hits onto you. You can't call it off-chance when there are multiple 16.5% (crit or drop) chances a game that you will get screwed by the abra.

 

[Goldland]

No, I did my calcs correctly. My guess is that you missed the +1 for Calm Mind.

236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236 SpD Eviolite Spritzee: 9-12 (33.3 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 12)

The part i put in bold is about eviolite-less spritzee in which you linked it yourself
236 SpA Life Orb Abra Psychic vs. +1 212 HP / 236+ SpD Spritzee: 9-13 (33.3 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
then i went to research and saw that the distribution was the one i linked , and not that one.
So you would take 12 damage instead of 9 damage and be killed on next turn.

Calm Mind boost. If we're considering crits and off-chance hits as a regular thing, then legit all these counter are actually fodder.

Not exactly, for instance the vullaby that Corporal Levi linked is quite solid, it can even take a crit and recover from that.

 

[GlassGlaceon]

GlassGlaceon are we to be taking hax into account? If we are assuming the core will always get a high roll or a crit at some point, there will literally be no counters and absolutely nothing near viable would come out of this thread.

TBH I honestly don't know why you needed to ask this, rather than just to prove a point to the other guy.

There would be no point to this project or counters at all if we took every bit of hax into account.

For the sake of this project we will not be taking hax into account. The point of this project is that we're trying to find a mon/core that will beat the core I proposed consistently under normal circumstances (meaning no hax), because there really isn't a way to control it.

ONCE AGAIN JUST SO EVERYONE GETS THE PICTURE, WE WILL NOT BE TAKING HAX INTO ACCOUNT.