NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

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If so, I posit it is because you are the secondary Fire Mafia and know who everyone in the game is. Your behaviour the entire day has been with complete assurance except as pertains to yourself, which does not suggest an honest town perspective.
 
pokeguy and unclesam would be a really strange scumteam. I don't feel like scumteams are a strong argument, like if you thought that way you also could have slightly scumread jumpluff because me and her were a possible scumteam, hopefully you get what I mean. I also still can't find the post, if you would post it here it would be nice.
What do you mean by scummy in a different way? That was your only point against him; with that gone, he should at most be a nullread to you. How does the gif make him look scummy? DLE also did contribute a little, but I think his posting style was kinda similar to sunny's; post a little, disappear for the rest of the day (DLE did this near the middle, sunny near the end).
Um jumpluff's post was about your scummy behavior, and UncleSam's post about acidphoenix? And yes I was pressured to vote, but I wasn't pressured to vote DLE, acid was the best lynch imo but I decided to vote DLE because he had the most traction on it, majority was neccessary and I needed to make that happen. And no, it would change something if you stayed on acid and only him. Because you were still only having one scumread and people were extremely mad about how you refused to scumread someone, so you scumreading DLE and me solved the problem. Unfortunately, you decided to vote acid, so the problem came back.
I still don't think you understand how important it was to reach majority. The mafia could have easily voted you with some reasoning that would be weak but didn't really matter because you were going to L-2 and L-1 and were the best candidate to lynch because you were so close and we needed to hit majority. Then, they could easily make excuses the next day and thus get off the hook. No one was really strongly townreading you other than DLE, only slightly townreading you and it can easily change (which is what Celever did with his argument with me).
Yeah we'll never solve that problem
Celever you have been on, please at least try to respond (even if it's like 3 lines I value that more than no response), and jumpluff we need you here, only rssp1 and I have been doing anything and it's just a constant loop that isn't going to get us anywhere unless someone gives opinions that have actual reasoning
Dude, I wasn't stating that they were my scumreads solely because I saw a possible scumteam, I saw some scummy things in pokeguy and saw a post that linked the two together so I stated them as a possible scumteam. Oh, and it wasn't that they were a "possible" scumteam (many scumteams are "possible" but not necessarily viable at that stage, if you want me to explain I can), but I saw something that linked the two and made them kinda scummy, ya feel?
Certainly, DLE contributed.... but it was different at the point i was talking about. To explain, he stated he was gonna be gone, was gone till monday I presume, then he posted the gif, showing that he was lurking but also just straight up not trying to address anything directed at him, which i found scummy. OR you can also see it in the fact that he was doing his best to fly under the radar (but that didn't really work).

Come on man, you were pressured to vote and DLE was the easiest lynch to go onto.... you see what i'm getting at? Also, I went with my strongest scumread since I personally wasn't getting much from either your or DLE's posts - people saw that as something towny, you know. No reason to gain more scumreads since people could see that as something scummy... To say I didn't understand how important it was is, well, not 100% correct, as I understood the necessity yet I didn't really have a strong scumread on DLE or you and I felt an acid lynch was better, but yeah im not gonna lie I didn't realize how detrimental that was until US got angry.

So, you're saying I was the best candidate to lynch? Ehhhh no, nobody actually wanted me lynched that day, they were all concentrated on DLE and you (even a wee bit on acid). Lynching me randomly on that day or really at any point, especially with weak reasoning, would have put a MASSIVE target on their back on the next day; no mafia would want that.
Fairly certain US was also townreading me.


The doctor should also consider protecting themselves, those two are the only good plays. It leaves me open, but ensures the survival of an absolutely confirmed town member. The lynch scenarios acidphoenix already outlined so I won't bother to restate them. However my plan accidentally allowed for a very haxxy or signalled 1-1. It is also contingent on being confident in the correct doctor.

one thought i keep coming back to is rssp1's post asking celever to claim, which has a number of circular paradoxes. specifically the line 'looks like celever'sgoing to be lynched today'. no input on whether celever should be lynched or not, no defence of celever, nothing that could tie him to celever, no attempt to save celever, no asking people to hold their horses (whereas i went absolutely apeshit as soon as i woke up and saw people lynching that early in the day). rssp1 explain? what do you all make of this? to me that looks like rssp1 possibly allowing a mislynch intentionally.
That first part... do you think UTO and I should state whether doc can self-protect, since it's a good way to determine who's the real doc (if host can confirm this, if they can't then nvm)? Except if we both answer the same thing it won't work : / Looking at it from another way though, it could confirm the doc; i'd like UTO's input as well as other people's input on this too. For the arguments against it, I see some that are valid, since the mafia knowing the doctor's ability to self-protect (or lack thereof) could affect the way they move, so its a risky play.
Also I think my post was fairly self-explanatory, I wanted to see if Celever would claim doc. I didn't realize it was that obvious, but oh well.
 
Dude, I wasn't stating that they were my scumreads solely because I saw a possible scumteam, I saw some scummy things in pokeguy and saw a post that linked the two together so I stated them as a possible scumteam. Oh, and it wasn't that they were a "possible" scumteam (many scumteams are "possible" but not necessarily viable at that stage, if you want me to explain I can), but I saw something that linked the two and made them kinda scummy, ya feel?
Certainly, DLE contributed.... but it was different at the point i was talking about. To explain, he stated he was gonna be gone, was gone till monday I presume, then he posted the gif, showing that he was lurking but also just straight up not trying to address anything directed at him, which i found scummy. OR you can also see it in the fact that he was doing his best to fly under the radar (but that didn't really work).

Come on man, you were pressured to vote and DLE was the easiest lynch to go onto.... you see what i'm getting at? Also, I went with my strongest scumread since I personally wasn't getting much from either your or DLE's posts - people saw that as something towny, you know. No reason to gain more scumreads since people could see that as something scummy... To say I didn't understand how important it was is, well, not 100% correct, as I understood the necessity yet I didn't really have a strong scumread on DLE or you and I felt an acid lynch was better, but yeah im not gonna lie I didn't realize how detrimental that was until US got angry.

So, you're saying I was the best candidate to lynch? Ehhhh no, nobody actually wanted me lynched that day, they were all concentrated on DLE and you (even a wee bit on acid). Lynching me randomly on that day or really at any point, especially with weak reasoning, would have put a MASSIVE target on their back on the next day; no mafia would want that.
Fairly certain US was also townreading me.

That first part... do you think UTO and I should state whether doc can self-protect, since it's a good way to determine who's the real doc (if host can confirm this, if they can't then nvm)? Except if we both answer the same thing it won't work : / Looking at it from another way though, it could confirm the doc; i'd like UTO's input as well as other people's input on this too. For the arguments against it, I see some that are valid, since the mafia knowing the doctor's ability to self-protect (or lack thereof) could affect the way they move, so its a risky play.
Also I think my post was fairly self-explanatory, I wanted to see if Celever would claim doc. I didn't realize it was that obvious, but oh well.
The only argument you presented was that they were a possible scumteam, so that's what I assumed. If you dropped both of them after deciding they weren't too likely a scumteam, it reads as if you only scumread them as a team and not because of their scummyness.

No acid was the easiest target to go onto at the moment, and when you posted DLE had already gained traction (it was after my post iirc). DLE was the second easiest target I admit it but I voted him because it was the most likely to reach majority which was the main focus on the day imo. And the post where you voted acid was the post where you scumread DLE and myself, which is another invalid point.

I didn't say you were the best candidate; you were near the middle, but it was possible that you could have slipped and wanted to avoid that by playing cautiously. If you posted scummily by accident Yeti would have pointed it out and everyone would have backed it up, and you could have gotten lynched.

What I meant is that if you slip the mafia can punish that by lynching you. Obviously that wouldn't happen if you didn't make any threatening accusations or anything.

The UncleSam read was only slightly town, so you weren't as towny as you might think you were.

Also I don't think the hosts would tell us the doctor's trat, because it would completely ruin the game, since this is the day that decides the game. But I would not be opposed to claiming
 
also I feel really bad for making jumpluff post, I didn't realize how terrible the situation was, sorry about that (if you could post its great but please don't feel like you have to)
 
I am also unsure on who to lynch today. Obviously I would lynch rssp1, but to everyone else take into consideration jumpluff's point about lynching others for the guarenteed doc survival.

Again jumpluff you don't have to address this asap or anything but here's some food for thought if you feel better
this is extremely weird since UTO attempted to, depending how you see it, paint pokeguy (stealth fire mafia) as the doctor without implicating themselves, at the start of the day, which is a very oddly certain play for someone who flip-flopped between scumreads very quickly, i understand the rationale of wanting to bluff and disguise someone else as the doctor and even bait out a false claim, but it seemed rather calculated to me, since pokeguy was indeed acting antidoctor. the way UTO reacted to celever struck me as having full certainty of who everyone in the game was
I saw the nightkills and had some thoughts, and I did think pokeguy and you were remaining town. The problem was that I needed to paint someone as the doctor because even if I neglect the doctor people are still going to consider I'm doctor (note this is before you told me to claim), so painting pokeguy was what I thought would be the most efficient way to avoid people thinking im doc
fwiw I think UTO and PokeguyNXB are the fire mafia, or rssp1 and PokeguyNXB if im wrong about UTO, which is still quite possible
but celever's scumminess is overwhelming and celever can't ever make a sensible case for him to be town. which i find to be weird because rssp1 can do it, uto can do it, i can do it. it makes celever look like a scapegoat but what the fuck is up with celever.
You have said Celever has been acting extremely scummy. How likely do you think is a rssp1/Celever team, especially after you have outlined it as one of your top teams and have saw many connections? ik you have considered it but it doesn't show in the beginning of the post and the post above it so it would be chill if you can answer it. everything else I agree with

Celever please respond I already outlined everything just for you
rssp1 thoughts about jumpluff's post?
 
im posting a lot but I just saw the part in jumpluff's post on page 41 that says that she can't mention anything about the doctor without celever copying it, celever please post full thoughts, not doing so is extremely antitown considering you said that you read it all and have nothing to say (right now I have nothing new to add other than this). I cannot stress how important this is. There's only 6 more days for you
 
The only argument you presented was that they were a possible scumteam, so that's what I assumed. If you dropped both of them after deciding they weren't too likely a scumteam, it reads as if you only scumread them as a team and not because of their scummyness.

No acid was the easiest target to go onto at the moment, and when you posted DLE had already gained traction (it was after my post iirc). DLE was the second easiest target I admit it but I voted him because it was the most likely to reach majority which was the main focus on the day imo. And the post where you voted acid was the post where you scumread DLE and myself, which is another invalid point.

I didn't say you were the best candidate; you were near the middle, but it was possible that you could have slipped and wanted to avoid that by playing cautiously. If you posted scummily by accident Yeti would have pointed it out and everyone would have backed it up, and you could have gotten lynched.

What I meant is that if you slip the mafia can punish that by lynching you. Obviously that wouldn't happen if you didn't make any threatening accusations or anything.
Nah, I brought up one point and then didn't mention anything more of them because i found literally nothing else.
I really don't see how acid was the easiest one to go on to, given that...
1) we needed to hit majority
2) most people weren't for lynching acid that day
3) most people wanted to lynch DLE (or you)

Also not seeing how the scumreads for you two are invalid, but I doubt i'm going to change your mind there.

No, i highly doubt the mafia would be able to switch their votes so easily - a sudden change in their behavior towards me would be incredibly weird and would definitely be pointed out by others. Regardless, whenever I was discussed as a lynch option it was definitely not for that day, so I had nothing to worry about if I was mafia.
 
I'll respond later when I have a little more time but I just want to say that everyone is ignoring jumpluff's posts for some strange reason and should read and respond to them if possible.
 
Okay, i need to explain this more clearly. I only fos rssp over UTO because IF UTO is Celever's partner, Celever is playing WAY more risky then i'd expect ANYONE who's alive at this stage to play, so that makes UTO my doc read by default. Reads are my weakpoint, so i use LOGIC to decide what i think of the game. If you don't like that, whatever. It's just how i play.
 
Nah, I brought up one point and then didn't mention anything more of them because i found literally nothing else.
I really don't see how acid was the easiest one to go on to, given that...
1) we needed to hit majority
2) most people weren't for lynching acid that day
3) most people wanted to lynch DLE (or you)

Also not seeing how the scumreads for you two are invalid, but I doubt i'm going to change your mind there.

No, i highly doubt the mafia would be able to switch their votes so easily - a sudden change in their behavior towards me would be incredibly weird and would definitely be pointed out by others. Regardless, whenever I was discussed as a lynch option it was definitely not for that day, so I had nothing to worry about if I was mafia.
Exactly, it looked more like forced scumreads.

acid was the easiest one to go for in my point of view since if I voted me he would have probably tunnelled me pretty hard later in the day which could have lead to my demise.

I already gave a ton of reasoning why, check above if you are curious

I mean if there are already some votes, it wouldn't look too suspicious since we were nearing the end of the day, and knowing about needing to hit majority it wouldn't be too hard to get a lynch on you. And you're missing the point, I'm saying you had nothing to worry about if you played cautiously, which you did, since you wouldn't slip because of being careful
 
How so? How is that dissimilar from your vote?

I think you phrased the sentence incorrectly, and I don't really think acid was in shape to tunnel ANYONE at that point in the game (sorry).

You understand that sudden vote changes after most specifically agreed I was not a good lynch target for the day would be incredibly scummy, and that everyone who switched their vote/voted near the end would be looked at closely, right? That's what i'm saying and you're disagreeing, and we're literally saying the same points over and over again. Look at the situation from a completely neutral situation and respond again, thanks.
Also i'm saying that I had no reason to play cautiously because the aggressiveness found in TIK and Ultras was getting them townread by basically everyone; pluff had a nullread for me after I subbed in, and that was due to my cautiousness, and I don't remember where Yeti slightly scumread me so i'll assume it was while Ultras was active like you said.
 
whoops I wrote part of this days ago and never posted because sth bad happened that evening

I have always wanted no doctor trait claims unless we try to lynch the doctor, at which point we are accepting even the risk of killing our own doctor. I don't think it confirms anything substantive that isn't already inferable. The hosts aren't going to confirm anything anyway. So until we commit to lynching the doctor I think it's probably more sensible to hold off. To be fair I've had an operative hypothesis all day and I see no reason the Fire Mafia shouldn't already have it. But we need the FM

What I would like to know is if you guys have access to your hypothetical previous protect (i.e. does U-Turn Out have access to the action Walrein sent in on Night 1, and does rssp1 have access to the action UltrasPlot sent in on Night 1?). I don't wanna know who it was at this stage if you do, I just think this is a possibly interesting question with little to no risk. I should've asked it when I asked the doctor to claim, sorry.

Also it's cool, UTO, I'm getting better but I could use more sleep (I just looked at my clock and thought it was 6 AM, it's 9 PM and I read it upside down??? pro.. LMAO I came back to this when I went to post this and it's actually 9 AM, we went right around). Sorry for the raging!!

Celever

I'm more frustrated with Celever because I can't fully pin him as scum but he is doing everything in his power to convince me he is when he could literally just try to defend himself on basically any of the points I've ever commented on, plenty of which have even raised the possibility he's town, and he's wasting my efforts which I'm beginning to conclude must be intentional. About anything. His words are not in accord with his behaviour and he does not seem to feel beholden to the town. If even I feel the need to defend myself to eliminate any possibility of village/acid overthinking and self-impaling, what does it say that Celever does not consider defending himself relevant?

I went through D1 again because it's the part of the game I know the least about. I was surprised by how many town players suspected Celever for reasoning similar to my own: non-contribution posts in flurries of activity; meta reads; diplomacy > play; aggressive lynches while acting in isolation from the rest of the game; buddying.

On D1 Celever stated that he does not see defending himself as important so much as ensuring the village processes. Well, that is fine D1 reasoning, but it's D3 and we cannot outpower the Fire Mafia, as Celever knows; our win route is self-organisation. Instead, what has been consistent about Celever's play is that he has focused more on building relationships (through buddying people like UncleSam and rssp1... this behaviour was called out quite a lot D1 by townies like Haunted Diamond and Spiffy, as well as repeatedly by UncleSam and Yeti) than analysing the games (almost all of Celever's major declarations have little to analysis given behind them over the whole six week period). This is remarkably transparent scummy play.

Yet I do not think Celever is truly that incompetent, and at this point individual scumreading is necessary but not sufficient to conclude someone is the Fire Mafia. It does raise the question though: why would Celever not buddy me? UTO knows I'm the only active person positively inclined towards his claim, so of course UTO is going to cling to me. Well, put simply, I've been antagonising Celever the whole game (that I've been subbed in) from a strong position with lots of long posts. It's effort to buddy me if I think you're scum. So instead, by his own admission, he shies away from me.

Celever also said on D1 he'd rather be read for intention than tone. He's stated this over and over again, that his tone genuinely reflects his current mood (which I don't buy as a negation, since his tone has always coincided with shifts between aggression and pacifism), but I agree that the most important thing in NOC is to understand where someone is coming from when they post, and what they gain and lose.

The thing is, I'm searching for town intentions in Celever's posts and I can't find any. Yes, at this point Celever is probably tired; I stated myself I wanted the game wrapped up but don't want to hamstring us on an important turning point just because I'm tired. (And my school resumes on the 31st then leads into my very heavily-weighted finals, and I have to do my homework by then, so it's not like I don't have ample reason to want this game concluded soon.) But Celever isn't doing anything to get this game over and done with, just pure non-cooperation, and whenever anyone asks Celever anything, unless he's already commented on it (so he can point to his old posts and be like, look, see, I am answering questions!), he just repeats himself: I read it, but somehow I found absolutely nothing worth commenting on.

If I suggest things that literally contradict themselves about Celever, I cannot draw him out to comment on which one is likelier to be true, which is remarkable. On an earlier day, or from a worse player, I'd read it as ButteredToast-esque type obstinacy. But Celever doesn't pull his own punches when he's bullying players not his own size, and he's been willing to shift.

And the thing is, there should be town intentions. Celever knows at this point he's suspected heavily by the 'other' (from his PoV) two town members, the real doctor (who he may be trying to get rid of if it's UTO) and me. Obviously PokeguyNXB, but qualitatively PGNXB and Celever's alliances are mutually exclusive (qualitatively due to the assumption I'm town). The point is that that's a terrible situation to be in to even stay alive. And I'm going to address later that Celever is not trying to keep himself alive very hard except through banking upon my confusion.

If he's thinking from a town PoV, he realises he needs to make himself clear town for the next day, maybe even the night, if he has this ironclad on rssp1 he realises he needs to convince me to vote along with him, etc. There's been zero dynamic play from Celever today, or attempts to muddle out the game (PokeguyNXB has made a more substantial effort to analyse what will happen, actually).

Or perhaps it's my very dangerous conclusion Celever and UTO are not allied, but again, I just cannot see them playing this way today, not with me townreading PokeguyNXB/nullreading rssp1 and trying to lynch UTO yesterday; it would require a complete acceptance of the likelihood a Fire Mafia is dying today in the hopes of immunity from acid's kill, when more cautious play could keep them both alive and render acid's kill irrelevant. Can I see them being desperate enough to coordinate this play overnight? Yeah, both of them were under the gun and they're intelligent, and the Fire Mafia kills, as I've previously commented, have been anti-doctor kills. But then how would they set it up? What if I'm doctor (to be fair, if I'm doctor, the FM probably lost)? What if PokeguyNXB actually is doctor? etc. etc. There are so many things that can go wrong with it that I just can't view it as within the realm of plausibility, especially compared to the rssp1/Celever shit, which looked way more staged (remember, Celever started a lynch on rssp before Pokeguy started a lynch on Celever). Yet how do I reconcile this?

What's remarkable is that both doctors want to lynch him. At face value, that would confirm Celever as town, because the FM wants to protect PokeguyNXB and the real doctor doesn't know which is which. It also bothers me that everyone is happy to lynch Celever, because it means if I'm wrong and he's town, he has no protection whatsoever from the lynch. That itself makes it more bizarre that he is not trying to defend himself; the only reasons I can find for that are a) true apathy, which is not backed up by Celever's continued participation b) inability to defend himself, which could only arise from being unable to present a better case for a lynch on anyone else that anyone would buy (so, he can't argue I'm FM, he can't try to lynch acid, he said himself making the case against PGNXB is very difficult -- although I am not sure how deeply he tried, did he only read PGNXB's posts or did he look at how other players had interacted with PGNXB? --, he can't argue for the lynch on rssp1 because they could be partners, he already is insisting weakly on a UTO lynch who is the last possibility left to him).

But, like I said, I suspect that someone lied when answering about their lynches. If I could stick each person who claimed to be doctor in a room with Celever and PokeguyNXB and hand them a secretly unloaded gun, I'd like to see who they'd shoot. (Allegorically speaking...) I'm not sure how to draw more accountability about lynches without actually just lynching. And because I can plausibly read PokeguyNXB as either of the doctor's partner, the only value in Celever's flip is if rssp1 and he are scum, in which case it's just a way of testing rssp1's claim without risking either of the doctors claimant.

I feel like a real town player would have actual opinions, or a standpoint from which to defend themselves and not just push. And Celever has been completely on the offensive today, which is really risky play for someone who prolly needs a restraining order against me at this point, but the only team that has anything to gain from hands-off offensive is the Fire Mafia. He was also on the offensive on D1, a time that was safe for him to be aggressive and where he could (and needed to) blend in. Although he kept pushing and pushing despite people thinking he was scum... how is it that someone can stick to their guns so stubbornly but play so wishy-washy?

rssp1/Celever team

from U-Turn Out:

U-Turn Out said:
How likely do you think is a rssp1/Celever team, especially after you have outlined it as one of your top teams and have saw many connections? ik you have considered it but it doesn't show in the beginning of the post and the post above it so it would be chill if you can answer it.
Hm, I'm not sure, only way I can develop an opinion is thinking it through though. If Celever is mafia then the Fire Mafia took a different day strategy than I anticipated in the first place, so some of my reasoning becomes null. I think an application of Occam's Razor suggests rssp1 is Celever's likeliest partner. But from the perspective of assuming rssp1 is mafia and having to pick between PokeguyNXB/Celever I'd probably say PokeguyNXB > Celever after having looked at PokeguyNXB. Celever is almost definitely not your partner. So it depends on whose flip you start from first, basically.

The conflict you see in my reads on you and the reads on the Fire Mafia team is pretty much a reflection of the distortion Celever and PokeguyNXB cause. Which is a situation one of them is satisfied with, probably. Neither of them seem in any great desperation to amend it. Both are reacting badly to being asked about their partnertells as well. I was thinking the worst case scenario where we can still win through lynch is PGNXB is the townie left alive in the 2/1 situation, but at least PGNXB is exhibiting some form of reasoning unlike Celever, which does abnegate him of having to do any actual analysis at this stage, but nonetheless, it is reasoning and cognitive engagement with the game. The thing is, Celever has actually been contributing all game, but I wouldn't expect any different regardless.

You see, Celever's whole 'I'm not THAT bad, come on, why would I lynch my partner at the start of Day 3' post really soured me because it struck me as a telegraphed bus. But I did go back and look at Day 2 and I realised Celever and rssp1/Ultras were trying to lynch each other all through Day 2, but rssp reacted differently than Ultras. Ultras antagonised Celever at the same time as Celever was antagonising Ultras over the Haunted Diamond lynch and UncleSam buddying, but then Celever straight up crawled to sunny when sunny subbed in because of sunny's slam dunk reads and tried to lynch rssp1. The thing I didn't like was rssp1's absence of a response to that except 'Celever is town because Celever told Gale he was lynching himself', which, like, that's just free town cred for literally anyone, nobody is going to let Gale lynch himself to majority. There is an unfortunate amount of WIFOM here because if Celever and rssp know they're partners, rssp subbing in is a great opportunity for them to drop the heat on each other and transition into lynching the Ice Mafia / a townie. (And Celever's lynch candidates were rssp + the two Ice Mafia, then UTO.)

Probably the only post I'd point to on Day 2 is this one by Celever, #495:

Sorry, but I care more about keeping my vote on UltrasPlot for now. He's been useless today, and I think that he's skating by just because your townread him so hard, UncleSam.
So, like, you can't fault Celever for consistency there.

The nice thing is Celever's never been subbed. So I went back and searched repeatedly (including rereading D1) looking for interactions between Celever and TIK. TIK had three (two, but three because he quoted the second and said Gale was escalating and it couldn't be ignored, so indirect interaction) and Celever just utterly ignored him because he was doing his prodding-inactive-people-demanding-reads thing while providing little original content schtick.

So the thing is Celever might actually be telling the truth, and just doing that Celever special where he never gives a fuck if he looks scummy (which, btw, is a brilliant meta to have for someone of Celever's skill level, so I'll be pissed if I lose to it).

Here are the TIK-Celever points.

#1

You wanna know my thoughts? That DaLetterEl post and then your response to it looks like some sort of pre-planned bullshit between you and him, but the thing is your 10/10 acting wasnt rlly able to hide it all that well, AND you look like a gigantic tryhard mafia thats trying to look town. Lots of filler and stretching your points out unnecessarily to make yourself seem like you are contributing a lot when you really arent saying much of anything.

Also I dont like the fact that you tagged three people at the end of your post to try to then veer the discussion away from yourself and your post. It just looks like you responded to DLE to fufill your daily "Im gonna respond/nitpick my partners post to make it look like we arent together" quota. It also looks like you are tagging to try to gain momentum and lead by getting people to think you are village.

I know in these NOC mafias people are inclined to really get reads and discuss shit at great length, but you have to realize that sometimes you are gonna get these slam-dunk reads like this that make lynching for the day easy, and you need to be open to that fact. I will literally eat a shoe if I'm wrong about this. Too many scum flags are going off for me right now.

UncleSam and DLE clearly a mafia duo together, probably FIRE due to DLE weird wifom thing he did that makes you think "Well, hes clearly not going to say celever is FIRE mafia so as to get us to never consider hes FIRE for the rest of the game." That stuff is red flag city for me too
this is the thing he means by the fire mafia wifom

#2

I like DaLetterEl, and I think the last mafia is either GaleWingSolrock or Celever. They give off that repeat your points without adding much themselves, GaleWingSolrock more than Celever in that regard.
Now I've said repeatedly and obliquely that I have a blind spot when it comes to TIK's 'playstyle'. And I don't see these as substantial interactions, more the total and utter absence of them as remarkable. And it's explained by TIK and Celever both having their little gimmicks. I only find these interesting in themselves because the reasoning TIK used to claim DLE is Fire (DLE was Ice) could be used identically to claim Celever and TIK are Fire... which is the scenario we're looking at today, weirdly! It strikes me as a little specious though. #2 was completely truthful except Celever was being far worse than Gale after rereading D1, Gale was saying weird shit but that's exactly it, there was plenty of Original Content Do Not Steal in Gale's posts and that's why people were reacting so extremely to Gale over their other scumreads. So there's a weak weak weak weak weak weak avoidance of each other there (perhaps Celever did not consider TIK's post a real threat because they were allied) but that's like.. not much. If TIK had reacted strongly to Celever that would suggest selfconsciousness to me tbh. But the thing is Celever really was being noisy (saying this as the noisiest player in the game).

The penultimate thing I want to point out is that one of my major arguments with Celever in Day 2 was over the possibility of Celever protecting UTO. Also I'll just drop UTO's abbreviated reads for reference but no commentary necessary IMO here. Now here is a point where I think Celever has been lying blatantly.

Celever said:
Because rssp1 is above and beyond the scummiest player in the game. I could see UTO, acid or even DLE being town, but I think that rssp1 is under no circumstances.
citation

Great docread, Celever! Now Celever read rssp1 and acid as mafia together and that obviously became an irrelevant scenario when DLE flipped, but so did the simultaneous read of UTO/DLE. That's a very bold statement for someone who thinks there's an offchance their top scum is doctor. That is exactly what happened with me and DLE and why I waffled a bit over the lynch, because I couldn't outright say 'I think there's a chance DLE is doctor' without risking too much and I couldn't say 'I think there's no chance DLE is doctor'. Remember, Celever?

Celever said:
This is still a worrying amount of certainty. Townies generally can't be this certain about anything.
I still think those are literally the most damning words Celever wrote all this game, except maybe this possible scumslip here which was the final thing I wanted to point out.

#1 #2

Did Celever here accidentally indicate he knows what the mafia role PMs look like in trying to insinuate that's what U-Turn Out did? The vanilla townie PM is not perfectly identical to the information posted in the signups thread (that's all I'm saying for now, might be useful in the future).

In the same post Celever moved his vote tiering towards the two Ice Mafia and cooperated with the village. What is really remarkable there again is not voting UTO but I'm satisfied with Celever's explanations about UTO and am confident enough to say at this stage it is unlikely that Celever and UTO are allied. So I think that was just a 'I don't have this many votes to place' thing. But Celever. Why did you lie about rssp1? What did rssp1 do to change your mind before the doctor claim to make you read him as potential doctor?

But you see, I love pointing out why Celever is scummy as shit because it's so damn easy, and ultimately while I think rssp1 + Celever is the only possible permutation of a Celever scumteam I don't think it's a given, pending Celever's answers about rssp1. But there's a serious history between the two players of earnestly trying to get each other lynched to the point of disregarding almost everyone else, so... it may be that one of rssp1 and Celever reacted honestly to the other, and maybe even both. btw I wrote this section nearly all today so there might be conflicting information elsewhere in the post (probably in my prior individual analysis of Celever) since I hadn't finalised my opinion on the nature of the rssp1-Celever connection (still haven't, but much closer).

PokeguyNXB

My reasoning for putting you and PokeguyNXB above rssp1 and Celever is that there is simply no conflicting data on the theory like there is with all the rssp1 teams (most of it I laid out in my original post before rssp1 counterclaimed), and I already have had strong reasons to suspect you are scum since Day 2, although I think you have a more consistent history of telling the truth. I can't conclude PokeguyNXB is town either after sunny subbed in and went after DLE and UltrasPlot with literally no reasoning. sunny had a life crisis too and I don't know them well enough to read anything but I inferred from the reactions they can indeed be counted upon to do better than that in normal circumstances. Now I'm not sure what to make of those reads because DLE was a safe consensus read on someone they definitely weren't allied with (Ice Mafia), UltrasPlot was a less consensus read (although if sunny didn't read the thread they may have just assumed it was a safe read to make at the time due to the change of the winds), but the UltrasPlot read is relevant to the PGNXB/rssp1 scenario. I can definitely see sunny scumreading their partner without actually explaining why to cover their tracks, but there's no pattern of play really inferable.

Now there are only two really interesting things PGNXB has commented on all game since iirc before this day (when you could logic it out) I don't remember him getting around to reads posts.

These kills just seem baffling to me, particularly Spiffy... why would mafia kill such a strong supporter of the HD lynch... though BT makes a little sense, as it gives us very little info, something the mafia would definitely want from a kill in my experience on Epicmafia.
This is exactly the victim profiling I have outlined for the Fire Mafia. And here PokeguyNXB has just outright fingered it. Yeti might've noticed that as a potential confession, not sure, her response to PGNXB (sincerely) denying that he would kill Spiffy was pretty canny. It got overshadowed by UncleSam thinking PGNXB was responsible for the Spiffy kill (and then ignoring PGNXB in general because he wasn't posting reads). PGNXB did admit he would've killed ButteredToast if he were mafia but said he didn't and he couldn't prove it otherwise, which, yeah, ofc. One of those is true at this stage. I see this as a really sincere play but I'm not sure what to make of it. PGNXB explicitly wanted to redirect discussion to the kills, something he could offer a lot more analysis of than reads. Which makes sense if the kill could be by anyone at all (the point of the kill). I'll return to that though.

In that context, UltrasPlot showing up with

UncleSam Celever
Explain yourselves.
Double post, but note that this is pseudo-LyLo.
straight up after US votes PGNXB for the Spiffy kill looks a lot like defending PGNXB implicitly. Before I just always assumed that was a timing thing because one of the things that bothered me was Ultras obsessively dogging Sam and Celever for the Haunted Diamond lynch (when UP was culpable too and put it at L-1 or hammered it iirc) and not reacting to nightkills, and the posts were made within five minutes of Sam's, but it's the second post that really interests me, the two look like deflection.

UncleSam's suspicion that PGNXB killed Spiffy was based on the other interesting thing PGNXB posted early:

PokeguyNXB said:
Okay real talk. Why am i acting so different? Because i'm a fucking blue. I HATE not having a night action, and i joined this game hoping on 5/13 odds i'd be Doc/Maf so at night, the only part of the game i'm actually GOOD at, i could actually DO SOMETHING. As anything other than blue, be it scum or a pr, i'm pissy about not getting lynched, but when i'm blue, i'm not unless it's mylo/lylo, cause i'm useless anyway and wouldn't mind being mislynched. Remind me not to join setups with mostly blues ever again please
spiffy's response, not needed to quote but in case anyone wants context

5/13 < 2/5 btw but that's neither here nor there.

Okay that leaves UTO, Celever, and rssp. (unless we're all wrong and jumpluff is mafia, but that's probably just me being paranoid like i was with US)... Honestly i'm extremely unsure of which 2 of these 3 are actually scum. Seeing as there's most likely a 2/3 chance of lynching one between these three, i'm going to Lynch Celever right now because he only has 1 person townreading him, and said person is his most likely partner, but do keep in mind this is subject to change if anything else comes up... and i believe hammer is 4 votes currently? So nobody else vote this yet please as it's at L-3 already and if I'm wrong (even if that is likely a 1/3 chance) Fire Mafia can easily blitz.
This was actually a very strong post on the part of PGNXB, and one of his better contributions. He relied on both mathematical analysis of the situation and qualitative analysis of reads, which is good play. But let's look at it deeper. Assumptions at the time: acid Ice Mafia, jumpluff town, PokeguyNXB non-doctor (already cited a post about this, plus PGNXB never cc'd). So PokeguyNXB is yolo lynching between the 2 Fire Mafia and the doctor. Absurdly risky play. And that is actually what happened from his PoV, but at the time UTO and rssp had not claimed. Some permutation of PGNXB/Celever UTO/rssp accounts for the 2 Fire Mafia + doctor + vanilla townie. So what if PGNXB was Fire Mafia? Then PGNXB doesn't know who the doctor is yet (because I do not believe UTO and PGNXB planned a doctor claiming situation due to how awkwardly theirs played out). So it doesn't seem as inherently obviously a risky play, because if PGNXB doesn't have those base assumptions in place as part of his PoV because he's not town, he might have forgotten to take them into account. He thinks he's lynching between two townies (good chance they are doctors but mightn't be evaluating how that reflects on him, also leaves open the chance I'm doctor) and a Fire Mafia, and he knows his partner is one of UTO and rssp (I logically deduced PGNXB and Celever couldn't be allies anyway), so he can just safely go after Celever, who has a good chance of getting rushed anyway.

If rssp is one of his townies (i.e. UTO is his partner) then he can also bandwagon on the Celever -> rssp1 lynch, so that's some soft evidence PGNXB + rssp1 is likelier than PGNXB + UTO. Again, UTO is devoid of partnertells by any of the living players (except myself, blah blah blah). We also have PGNXB backtracking on his FoS rssp1 after I requested the show of hands. PGNXB is very clearly trying not to drop info there IMO. The thing is that FoS protects UTO substantially, so idk, but the reasoning PGNXB used for Celever originally may not be valid because rssp1 FoS'd Celever. So I'm not sure if I read his play as sincere town play.

So how did Celever react to this?

Celever said:
Well I say that, Pokeguy just shot up my scumreads list. I've been reading him town all game, but I don't understand why the fire mafia haven't lynched me yet. I guess UTO wasn't on? The scumteam is probably UTO and rssp1 at this point, I sorta doubt Pokeguy is on it though recent happenings make it totally possible and jumpluff almost certainly isn't mafia.
I literally don't remember Celever's reasoning for thinking UTO - rssp1, I think it was just combination of scumreads but I might've just extrapolated that, or it might've been the part I bolded. But that's a lot more of a relaxed reaction in the sense that from Celever's PoV PGNXB/UTO/rssp1 contains the 2 Fire Mafia who are likeliest not PGNXB for... whatever fuckin reason, if I were Celever I would've reacted pretty violently tbh. It suggests uncertainty. If Celever is Fire Mafia there he knows PGNXB is village so we can use wifom to say thats why Celever didn't react so heavily, and scumreading both UTO and rssp is actually a pretty safe play. I'm not sure how to read it in context of Celever's later commitment to rssp1, obviously he had to pick one out of his scumreads but it strikes me as bizarre he can read them both as scum and then suddenly be totally sure one of them is town. (Celever MAYBE YOU COULD COMMENT ON THIS.)

I really like having to play defense and prosecution for Celever AND PokeguyNXB, real fun.

My problem is that UTO is playing the towniest right now, but both rssp1 and UTO have a strong incentive to be active right now and I do sense some buddying (which I have commented before is the only recourse for UTO regardless of alliance), it's still pretty consistent since Day 2 though with the exception of UTO flipping after rssp1 counterclaimed. The real issue with UTO is that UTO was the scummiest all game out of any of them except Celever maybe but has consistently contributed in a reasonable manner and lacks solid partnertells.

---

I would like to lynch PGNXB, although I'm down to lynch Celever for fun at this point just for not convincing me to lynch anyone else, unless he can answer the questions I posted (hint: everything I wanted Celever to respond to is tagged, but to avoid Celever dragging this out more, ctrl+f these:

Great docread, Celever! Now Celever read rssp1 and acid as mafia together and that obviously became an irrelevant scenario when DLE flipped, but so did the simultaneous read of UTO/DLE. That's a very bold statement for someone who thinks there's an offchance their top scum is doctor.
(especially with the D3 lynch)

But Celever. Why did you lie about rssp1? What did rssp1 do to change your mind before the doctor claim to make you read him as potential doctor?
[context ..] I'm not sure how to read it in context of Celever's later commitment to rssp1, obviously he had to pick one out of his scumreads but it strikes me as bizarre he can read them both as scum and then suddenly be totally sure one of them is town. (Celever MAYBE YOU COULD COMMENT ON THIS.)
I don't feel confident enough on the doctor lynch, even though I agree lynching the false doctor is optimal, and I think Celever is probably town as much as it doesn't sit right with me. So I default to lynching PGNXB who is plausibly the partner of either, although that does not reveal who the false doctor is but points maybe more to UTO. Everyone here seems a lot surer of the false doctor than I am anyway so...
 
Oh yeah while I'm doing the jumpluff triple post special (seriously not being able to edit posts is really hard for me because I usually edit my posts quite substantially after making them because I'm fussy) there was a lot of weirdness from sunny around the lynch on day 2
 
"What I would like to know is if you guys have access to your hypothetical previous protect (i.e. does U-Turn Out have access to the action Walrein sent in on Night 1, and does rssp1 have access to the action UltrasPlot sent in on Night 1?). I don't wanna know who it was at this stage if you do, I just think this is a possibly interesting question with little to no risk. I should've asked it when I asked the doctor to claim, sorry."

Yeah, I do, TDG just added me to the same convo TIK and Ultras were in.
Reading the rest of that post now
 
I think Celever acts scummier on his own but the cases on him relative to his position in the game are less plausible.

I think Pokeguy is unreadable in behaviour but scummier in terms of relation to the other players in the game.

Both of them generate high levels of noise to signal in terms of scumminess.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
The penultimate thing I want to point out is that one of my major arguments with Celever in Day 2 was over the possibility of Celever protecting UTO. Also I'll just drop UTO's abbreviated reads for reference but no commentary necessary IMO here. Now here is a point where I think Celever has been lying blatantly.

citation

Great docread, Celever! Now Celever read rssp1 and acid as mafia together and that obviously became an irrelevant scenario when DLE flipped, but so did the simultaneous read of UTO/DLE. That's a very bold statement for someone who thinks there's an offchance their top scum is doctor. That is exactly what happened with me and DLE and why I waffled a bit over the lynch, because I couldn't outright say 'I think there's a chance DLE is doctor' without risking too much and I couldn't say 'I think there's no chance DLE is doctor'. Remember, Celever?
I'm gonna be brutally honest and say that actually I wasn't paying rssp1's posts a huge amount of mind during Day 2 itself. Ultras was scummy enough that I didn't think it was necessary, because I was so certain that Ultras was mafia that I didn't really want to get swayed by rssp1 (this sounds ridiculous, but it's because on my other forum I have a reputation for being on mafia lynches and jumping off them later thanks to their defense). However, that night I decided to read into rssp1 a bit more, and that's when I started thinking that rssp1 could be doc. I just got that general tone from his posts, and I had been searching for it all game so that I wouldn't push a doclynch, and rssp1 was the first true docread I had. However, rssp1's play in Day 3 is honestly what makes me think rssp1 is doc the most, since he sort of confirmed my beliefs before he even claimed with his posting style right from the word go (and the whole baiting me into claiming was I think only the work of a real doctor). That's why there's such a huge shift, which I admit I've noticed myself. If Ultras hasn't subbed out, though, I'd still probably be gunning his lynch right now.

You may now ask, "why would you start a lynch on him if you thought he was probably the doc?" It was so we would have this situation. rssp1, a semi-solid doc read at the time, and his cc (which I was kinda hoping would be UTO since I was scumreading him anyway). For me, that ratted out a mafia, unless it was jumpluff in which case my docread would have been off I guess. Pokeguy literally claimed not to be doc in what I see as sincere frustration, and I absolutely would have called him out on it if he'd claimed doc because of that. Obviously mafia claiming doc was not the optimal situation for them, so forcing this early on in the day I felt was a good plan of action. And of course if my read on Ultras was in fact correct and rssp1 is mafia, that lynch could have made him panic and make him clearly mafia, which I don't even have to point out is good for us.
But Celever. Why did you lie about rssp1? What did rssp1 do to change your mind before the doctor claim to make you read him as potential doctor?
I answered this above I think >_>.
I literally don't remember Celever's reasoning for thinking UTO - rssp1, I think it was just combination of scumreads but I might've just extrapolated that, or it might've been the part I bolded. But that's a lot more of a relaxed reaction in the sense that from Celever's PoV PGNXB/UTO/rssp1 contains the 2 Fire Mafia who are likeliest not PGNXB for... whatever fuckin reason, if I were Celever I would've reacted pretty violently tbh. It suggests uncertainty. If Celever is Fire Mafia there he knows PGNXB is village so we can use wifom to say thats why Celever didn't react so heavily, and scumreading both UTO and rssp is actually a pretty safe play. I'm not sure how to read it in context of Celever's later commitment to rssp1, obviously he had to pick one out of his scumreads but it strikes me as bizarre he can read them both as scum and then suddenly be totally sure one of them is town. (Celever MAYBE YOU COULD COMMENT ON THIS.)
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that was more just me throwing UTO and rssp1 together, since I know I didn't put any thought into that scum team lol. As I said above, it was more that I looked into rssp1 more at night as opposed to during the day. I looked at UTO too but my opinion didn't really change much and if anything I thought he was scummier leading into day 3.

I would like to lynch PGNXB, although I'm down to lynch Celever for fun at this point just for not convincing me to lynch anyone else, unless he can answer the questions I posted (hint: everything I wanted Celever to respond to is tagged, but to avoid Celever dragging this out more, ctrl+f these:
I must admit, I did actually appreciate you pointing me to where to respond, even if it was kinda asking the same question three times. Could everyone do that please? >_____>
I don't feel confident enough on the doctor lynch, even though I agree lynching the false doctor is optimal, and I think Celever is probably town as much as it doesn't sit right with me. So I default to lynching PGNXB who is plausibly the partner of either, although that does not reveal who the false doctor is but points maybe more to UTO. Everyone here seems a lot surer of the false doctor than I am anyway so...
Yeah, I can definitely appreciate this logic. You've posted more than enough about rssp1 and UTO for me to see that you're totally torn between them, and it's definitely the riskier yet more rewarding option as I said earlier today. On this note I would like to:
Lynch PokeguyNXB
I know he's mafia, anyway. Shit's gonna get real tomorrow though >___>
 
I have time later in the day to read and respond to everything but rssp1 is correct, I know Walrein's actions. Also it's actually going to be incredibly hard to reach majority on a mafian, because acid isn't voting them and two scums left, 3 is not majority so really the only people we can reach majority on is townies, which is kinda frightening
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
I have time later in the day to read and respond to everything but rssp1 is correct, I know Walrein's actions. Also it's actually going to be incredibly hard to reach majority on a mafian, because acid isn't voting them and two scums left, 3 is not majority so really the only people we can reach majority on is townies, which is kinda frightening
acid will vote with us or we will lynch him for being a bad little mafia, lol.
 
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